Jump to content

A Matt Ryan Perspective And The Draft


Recommended Posts

David Carr, Jason Campbell ahead of Rodgers.

It is a stat of circumstance.

If it's a "stat of circumstance" why doesnt Rodgers have more? He plays in a circumstance that you said produces these things. He's on an offense that is consistently good or better and his defense has had at least a few years of being ******. Wouldn't you expect a spike in GWD if it were simply good offense + bad defense?

Any statistical measure will have the occasional strange result. But when you look at the top and you see the names you'd expect to see, theres at least a suggestion that there's something there. And when you look at the specifics of each drive and see that Ryan has 7 GWD that start with 2:00 or less on the clock (tied for first) you should give him credit. When you see that's lead 5 GWD with less than a minute on the clock, you should give him credit. Especially when you look at the average starting LoS and see that he's typically facing a steeper uphill climb.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 214
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

If it's a "stat of circumstance" why doesnt Rodgers have more? He plays in a circumstance that you said produces these things. He's on an offense that is consistently good or better and his defense has had at least a few years of being ******. Wouldn't you expect a spike in GWD if it were simply good offense + bad defense?

Any statistical measure will have the occasional strange result. But when you look at the top and you see the names you'd expect to see, theres at least a suggestion that there's something there. And when you look at the specifics of each drive and see that Ryan has 7 GWD that start with 2:00 or less on the clock (tied for first) you should give him credit. When you see that's lead 5 GWD with less than a minute on the clock, you should give him credit. Especially when you look at the average starting LoS and see that he's typically facing a steeper uphill climb.

show me the quality of those teams and then I will determine how much credit is due. A comeback against the 31st ranked defense isn't too impressive to me.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Larry, Larry quite contrary strikes again.

The conversation was about whether Matt Ryan will be HoF worthy. You have conveniently avoided offering opinion on that, preferring instead to nit pick at the periphery.

Where is your "substance" Larry?

Because Ryan is likely less than halfway through his NFL career....far too early to make a determination of his HoF candidacy.

If I HAD to guess, I'd suggest he'll be in the discussion assuming his game continues to progress at the rate that these things usually happen. He's probably looking at the next 5 years of his career being his "peak" though the evidence is starting to mount that suggests a QBs peak can last well into their mid-30s. Given where he is now and how well he plays the position, 7 or 8 more "Matt Ryan" seasons will likely put him at least in the discussion. But we don't know what Hall of Fame QB's look like anymore.....because we havent really seen any new guys enshrined in the last 8 years.

When we start to see how Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb are treated by the Hall, we'll have a better grasp of what the Hall is looking for. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say its 60% yes, 40% no. But that could change at a moments notice.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Andy Dalton

Pass Attempts -1,630

Passing yards - 11,360

Passing TDs - 80

Passing ints -49

comp % 60.9

YPA -7.0

Matt Ryan

pass attempts -1,456

passing yards - 10,061

passing TDs - 66

passing ints - 34

comp % 60.6

YPA - 6.9

I'm assuming you're touting Andy dalton as a potential HOF candidate? If so please start a new thread, as it's irrelevant. I'm neither touting or objecting others opinion. It's simple. Either Matt is, will be or won't

Link to post
Share on other sites

Because Ryan is likely less than halfway through his NFL career....far too early to make a determination of his HoF candidacy.

If I HAD to guess, I'd suggest he'll be in the discussion assuming his game continues to progress at the rate that these things usually happen. He's probably looking at the next 5 years of his career being his "peak" though the evidence is starting to mount that suggests a QBs peak can last well into their mid-30s. Given where he is now and how well he plays the position, 7 or 8 more "Matt Ryan" seasons will likely put him at least in the discussion. But we don't know what Hall of Fame QB's look like anymore.....because we havent really seen any new guys enshrined in the last 8 years.

When we start to see how Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb are treated by the Hall, we'll have a better grasp of what the Hall is looking for. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say its 60% yes, 40% no. But that could change at a moments notice.

I think this fair and relevant .

Lol I've never heard SOS used by HOF voters

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know threads about Matt get old, but if like this one to be an objective look at Matt.

After 6 seasons, the 28 yr old Matt,,has over 23k yds 153 TDs, 77 ints , almost 64% completion percentage and a 90.6 rating. Folks he's got a 2:1 TD to int percentage.

Also put in perspective, despite losing his 2 top targets for most of the season, the team lacking a running game and well let's just say that despite playing behind a leaky OL; Matt put up these numbers:

Over 4500 yds, completed 67% of his passes, tossed for 26 TDs, had 17 ints and a rating of just shy of 90.

Now let's look at the fact that most QBs who have maintained consistent numbers in their first 6 seasons, which Matt gas, generally hit their prime at the age Matt is now. If Matt simply keeps his numbers as they are, and shows zero improvement, these are his numbers by age 34:

Over 46k yds, over 300 TDs, versus 160 or so INTs, a 64% completion percentage and an over 90 rating

Folks those are HOF consideration numbers!

Since all seem to agree we've never had a great OL. What would be the difference in Matt's numbers and our effectiveness if we improve this area? We signed Asamoah, but how much better will Matt play if we had a Robinson or Matthews also on the OL?

Will Matt's numbers improve?

Those stats are inflated. He probably had 2500 dink and donk yds half of the 67% completions were also dink and donk. IT IS TIME TO GET THE BALL DOWN FIELD. IF NOT TEAMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT 8 IN THE BOX AND IT WILL BE THE SAME OLD STORY.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol I've never heard SOS used by HOF voters

so a comeback against a bad team is equal to a comeback against a good team? All comebacks are created equal?

Why were you even losing to the bad team in the first place? Thereby necessitating a comeback?

Edited by bt12483
Link to post
Share on other sites

Because Ryan is likely less than halfway through his NFL career....far too early to make a determination of his HoF candidacy.

If I HAD to guess, I'd suggest he'll be in the discussion assuming his game continues to progress at the rate that these things usually happen. He's probably looking at the next 5 years of his career being his "peak" though the evidence is starting to mount that suggests a QBs peak can last well into their mid-30s. Given where he is now and how well he plays the position, 7 or 8 more "Matt Ryan" seasons will likely put him at least in the discussion. But we don't know what Hall of Fame QB's look like anymore.....because we havent really seen any new guys enshrined in the last 8 years.

When we start to see how Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb are treated by the Hall, we'll have a better grasp of what the Hall is looking for. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say its 60% yes, 40% no. But that could change at a moments notice.

60% in or 60% on the ballot.

Link to post
Share on other sites

show me the quality of those teams and then I will determine how much credit is due. A comeback against the 31st ranked defense isn't too impressive to me.

1) Who gives a **** what impresses you? You wouldnt know good QB play if it slapped you in the face.

2) Do your own homework. But for starters, you could look at Carolina 2012 (11th defense by DVOA), the Seattle playoff game (2nd by defensive DVOA) and the Bears in 2008 (7th by DVOA). Combined numbers: 6/8 136 yards 17 YPA. The WP of each of these situations were among the 5 lowest WP of ALL the GWDs looked at in the study. In all, Ryan has 4 of the lowest 8 WPs among his GWD.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If it's a "stat of circumstance" why doesnt Rodgers have more? He plays in a circumstance that you said produces these things. He's on an offense that is consistently good or better and his defense has had at least a few years of being ******. Wouldn't you expect a spike in GWD if it were simply good offense + bad defense?

Any statistical measure will have the occasional strange result. But when you look at the top and you see the names you'd expect to see, theres at least a suggestion that there's something there. And when you look at the specifics of each drive and see that Ryan has 7 GWD that start with 2:00 or less on the clock (tied for first) you should give him credit. When you see that's lead 5 GWD with less than a minute on the clock, you should give him credit. Especially when you look at the average starting LoS and see that he's typically facing a steeper uphill climb.

In Aaron Rodgers, you've only uncovered another flaw in pronouncing GWD as an important stat, not indicted the generality I've stated.

If you want to look deeper into the stats, perhaps Kickers/QB combos should be given credit, since only 6 of Matt's GWDs have led to TD passes. Again circumstance, in that the deficit is less than 3 and the win can come with a FG, instead of needing a TD.

Link to post
Share on other sites

1) Who gives a **** what impresses you? You wouldnt know good QB play if it slapped you in the face.

2) Do your own homework. But for starters, you could look at Carolina 2012 (11th defense by DVOA), the Seattle playoff game (2nd by defensive DVOA) and the Bears in 2008 (7th by DVOA). Combined numbers: 6/8 136 yards 17 YPA. The WP of each of these situations were among the 5 lowest WP of ALL the GWDs looked at in the study. In all, Ryan has 4 of the lowest 8 WPs among his GWD.

I am gonna pull the small sample size card like you always do.

Randomness. Yada Yada.

Isn't that what you would say if things were reversed?

Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.coldhardf...schedule/18941/

Guess who hasn't had the toughest opponents?

1) If only the author of this article wasnt the same guy who wrote the article I provided earlier......and if only he hadnt written the article I provided a year later....

2) Do you even pay attention to what these raw numbers mean? Flacco plays 19 4th QC games against .500+ teams and wins 5 of them. Ryan plays 16 of them and wins 6. Flacco plays 5 games against <.500 teams and wins 2 of them. Ryan plays 8 and wins 7.

And thats before Scott was kind enough to look into the specifics of where these drives start, how they proceed and how likely they were to result in a win in the first place. Which is why Flacco's overall picture doesnt look that great.

Link to post
Share on other sites

this is the best one about DIMITROFF over at cold hard facts

ATLANTA

Round 2, Pick 23 (55) Peter Konz C 6'5" 314 Wisconsin Round 3, Pick 28 (91) Lamar Holmes T 6'5" 323 Southern Miss Round 5, Pick 22 (157) Bradie Ewing FB 6'0" 239 Wisconsin Round 5, Pick 29 (164) Jonathan Massaquoi DE 6'2" 264 Troy Round 6, Pick 22 (192) Charles Mitchell SS 5'11" 202 Mississippi St. Round 7, Pick 42 (249) Travian Robertson DT 6'4" 302 South Carolina

Veteran acquisitions: No major acquisitions

Weakness in 2011: Defensive line. Pass defense.

Overview: Thomas Dimitroff is rapidly shaping up as a major draft-day liability for the Falcons. First, there was the disaster of the 2011 draft-day effort to mortgage the future of the franchise for a single wide receiver; an effort that went predictably bad for anyone versed in the Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law. Fast forward to 2012: we understand long-time center Todd McClure is so old that moss is growing up to his ankles. But is that any reason to devote your very first draft pick, in the second round, to the center position? The Falcons went OL again in the second round.

Remember, center is the least-valued position in the NFL. Only five were drafted this year. Also Remember that the offensive line was Atlanta’s greatest asset in 2011: No. 6 on our Offensive Hog Index, Atlanta’s highest rank in any one of our Quality Stats.

But hey, at least Dimitroff didn’t give away five draft picks to land Peter Konz.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s greatest weakness in 2011 was its defensive line, not its offensive line: No. 22 on our Defensive Hog Index, Atlanta’s lowest rank in any one of our Quality Stats. The Falcons waited until the 164th pick to address its weakest link. Inexcusable.

In addition to getting caught up in the superficial glamour of a Shiny Hood Ornament, Dimitroff suffers from a serious case of Anecdote-itis, a disease which infects many in football analysis. He said he tried to bulk up the offense this year because it was overmatched in short-yardsage situations.

In reality, the Falcons averaged more than 4.0 YPA and were among the best in football at converting third and fourth downs (43.5%). If we look at short distances, the Falcons were again very effective. They converted 3 of 5 rushing attempts (60%) on 4th and 1; 12 of 17 rushing attempts on 3rd and 1 (70.6%); and 2 of 2 rushing attempts on 3rd and 2 (100%).

Sounds like the only place Atlanta needs to bulk up is in the front office.

Fillability Grade: D-

Link please...that draft speaks for itself.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Falcons would have blown the roof off Seahawks if not for two dumb throws by Matt Ryan which started the comeback for Seahawks

The same throw that was picked off by the linebacker was the same throw made to Tony Gonzalez out the team in FG range. Tony was almost there the 1st time, all the way there the 2nd time.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would love to see how many GWDs Ryan has where it wasn't his fault we were in the predicament to come back . I would love to see the GWDs where Ryan played clean football no turnovers or mistakes and was playing solid and defense was letting us down and he came back and lead Falcons to GWD

I would safe to say there isn't many . Many like 3 at most

But you use this same stance in a positive way when talking about Andrew Luck and overcoming the odds in the playoffs. Lol. C'mon man

Link to post
Share on other sites

In Aaron Rodgers, you've only uncovered another flaw in pronouncing GWD as an important stat, not indicted the generality I've stated.

If you want to look deeper into the stats, perhaps Kickers/QB combos should be given credit, since only 6 of Matt's GWDs have led to TD passes. Again circumstance, in that the deficit is less than 3 and the win can come with a FG, instead of needing a TD.

Sure. But note that Ryan's FG% is only 14th among the 22 qualifiers. So he certainly isn't winning games with FGs anymore than other are....and in fact, he's doing it less than average.

No one is stating this is a super important, end-all stat. Its another piece of the puzzle. Its a piece that suggests Ryan is pretty good at working in these situations.

See, whats so funny about the pro-Ryan vs. anti-Ryan folk is that the QB-specific stuff almost always favors Ryan. The PFF ratings like Ryan. The breakdowns like Ryan. The DVOA/DYAR like Ryan. The QBR likes Ryan. The GWD analysis likes Ryan. All of these things suggest that he's a very good QB. And the typical crew (which usually doesnt involve you unless you're feeling like mixing it up) have to attempt to explain away all of these things. They explain away the raw stats, the advanced metrics, the record. They find their little shadow and hide there, pissing and moaning about single plays that Ryan didnt make while ignoring the failures of others that helped contribute to those plays.

It's ******** "analysis" standing on an entirely flawed assumption that you can use any one play or even one game to define a given player's value or ability.

You've gotta look at the entire body of work. And the entire body of work suggests Matt is a very good QB. Can he do more? Sure can. And I hope he does. Maybe he will. Maybe he won't.

Link to post
Share on other sites

1) If only the author of this article wasnt the same guy who wrote the article I provided earlier......and if only he hadnt written the article I provided a year later....

2) Do you even pay attention to what these raw numbers mean? Flacco plays 19 4th QC games against .500+ teams and wins 5 of them. Ryan plays 16 of them and wins 6. Flacco plays 5 games against <.500 teams and wins 2 of them. Ryan plays 8 and wins 7.

And thats before Scott was kind enough to look into the specifics of where these drives start, how they proceed and how likely they were to result in a win in the first place. Which is why Flacco's overall picture doesnt look that great.

Ryan's career is pretty much defined by beating up on average to below average teams in a perfect conditions dome. If that is a satisfactory crowning achievement for you, you have low standards. Let me know when his playoff record turns positive, including his TD/turnover ratio. Until then, I really don't care if he mounts a comeback against a sub .500 team four times a year.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I am gonna pull the small sample size card like you always do.

Randomness. Yada Yada.

Isn't that what you would say if things were reversed?

No. You misunderstanding how to apply a simple concept like sample size isn't surprising.

If Ryan were to have 1 of these types of situations, suggesting that he does well in them would be a mistake. But as the # of the situations grow and the proportion of his successes in these fairly rare situations increases, the conclusions you can derive from them grow stronger.

It would be a mistake to say "he's got 4 of the 8 toughest situations...he's THE BEST!!!." But it wouldnt be a mistake to say he's pretty good in those situations.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know threads about Matt get old, but if like this one to be an objective look at Matt.

After 6 seasons, the 28 yr old Matt,,has over 23k yds 153 TDs, 77 ints , almost 64% completion percentage and a 90.6 rating. Folks he's got a 2:1 TD to int percentage.

Also put in perspective, despite losing his 2 top targets for most of the season, the team lacking a running game and well let's just say that despite playing behind a leaky OL; Matt put up these numbers:

Over 4500 yds, completed 67% of his passes, tossed for 26 TDs, had 17 ints and a rating of just shy of 90.

Now let's look at the fact that most QBs who have maintained consistent numbers in their first 6 seasons, which Matt gas, generally hit their prime at the age Matt is now. If Matt simply keeps his numbers as they are, and shows zero improvement, these are his numbers by age 34:

Over 46k yds, over 300 TDs, versus 160 or so INTs, a 64% completion percentage and an over 90 rating

Folks those are HOF consideration numbers!

Since all seem to agree we've never had a great OL. What would be the difference in Matt's numbers and our effectiveness if we improve this area? We signed Asamoah, but how much better will Matt play if we had a Robinson or Matthews also on the OL?

Will Matt's numbers improve?

He's got 1 playoff win and $20 million dollars per yer.

THAT'S MATT RYAN FOLKS!

Link to post
Share on other sites

No. You misunderstanding how to apply a simple concept like sample size isn't surprising.

If Ryan were to have 1 of these types of situations, suggesting that he does well in them would be a mistake. But as the # of the situations grow and the proportion of his successes in these fairly rare situations increases, the conclusions you can derive from them grow stronger.

It would be a mistake to say "he's got 4 of the 8 toughest situations...he's THE BEST!!!." But it wouldnt be a mistake to say he's pretty good in those situations.

cool...so update the sample size to include 2013 please. When your QB led HIS team to a 4-12 record, and didn't have as much surrounding talent making last second plays.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan's career is pretty much defined by beating up on average to below average teams in a perfect conditions dome. If that is a satisfactory crowning achievement for you, you have low standards. Let me know when his playoff record turns positive, including his TD/turnover ratio. Until then, I really don't care if he mounts a comeback against a sub .500 team four times a year.

LOL. You're so ******* bad at this it's ridiculous.

IM JUST GONNA SAY A BUNCH OF STUFF THAT DOESNT HACVE ROOTS IN FACT!!!!!!

Go home, buddy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

cool...so update the sample size to include 2013 please. When your QB led HIS team to a 4-12 record, and didn't have as much surrounding talent making last second plays.

I already looked at this year. He consistently lead his team to successful positions. Unfortunately, he was on the wrong end of some ****** single plays. He also made a few mistakes. So it goes. How'd big bad Joe play this year coming off his amazing postseason run and having finally "arrived" as an elite QB? Of, what's that you say? You played like hot ******* garbage? He played his team out of the playoffs? He threw 5 picks in two games when all they needed was a win to lock up a playoff spot? He needed his kicker to bail him out a bunch? Come onnnn! Not JOE!!!

Link to post
Share on other sites

that's basically it . Think his record is near .500 vs teams with winning record

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/9/25/4751588/QB-wins-over-average-tom-brady-peyton-manning-aaron-rodgers-tony-romo

No real surprises at the top, where Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are in a class of their own. For people who haven't been watching the Falcons over the past couple of years, a surprise here may be the 3rd-ranked Matt Ryan. The numbers here suggest that Ryan (and his offense) have been winning a lot of games for the Falcons. The Falcons have stumbled out of the gate a little this year, but with the recent additions to their offense, Ryan's numbers should only get better. Ryan is clearly in the top tier of QBs, his missing Super Bowl ring notwithstanding.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...