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Time To Get More In Depth On Thomas Dimitroff


RYNE
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Those Gms are proven GMS better than TD. There are a couple of new face gms Steve Keim,Dave Gettleman,John Idzik that are off to a decent start at general manager .Look at Scott Piloli who had a polished resume and couldnt find another GM job. How about Mike Tannenbaum who helped Jets to back to back AFC champ games yet still cant find another job as a NFL general manager. Once you are fired from being a NFL general manager its not easy getting another one and you probably only can find a select few and I am sure the ones that were fired and got rehired were championship building general manager

Pioli was asked to join us last year. He declined. He accepted this year. He's assistant GM. He's going to be a GM again pretty soon I'd bet. Tannebaum was not a good GM.

You couldn't name even 15 GMs better than TD like I asked, only naming 9, so TD isn't as bad as yall want him to be. He's not perfect, and this season sucked, but he's done nothing but position himself to fix this roster. HeIl, it took Ozzie how many years to find a competent QB? But he was afforded the time to do his job. Let Ozzie be here and take 10 years to find a serviceable QB, he wouldn't be here if it were up to yall.

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First, picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50% chance of finding a starter. Going towards the end of the round 3, your chance of finding a starter falls to ~30%. Using this criteria and our draft value chart from last week, let’s evaluate a couple of the trades from Friday

Another interesting note, in the later rounds, an NFL team has a really slim chance of finding the next Tom Brady in round 6 or Donald Driver in round 7. The data shows that finding a starter in round 6 or 7 is only 10 - 20%. Further strengthening the argument to search for players that are effective on special teams in later rounds. Finally, see pick 148 on the graph (highlighted in blue). In the past 50 years, only two players picked 148 have started more than one year and played in at least 40 games.image00.png

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This is the chart for players that start for less than a year or plays in fewer than 40 games in their career

It's nice to see some reality brought in to this discussion.

Sadly, too many of our fans have ridiculous expectations when it comes to the draft. They live in a fantasy world where almost every draft pick should be an above average starter. God forbid we draft someone who fails to make the pro bowl in year 2. We spend a handful on mid rounds picks on linemen in 6 years and they think that's enough and we ought to have a top OL on the basis of those picks.

Even comparison I've seen, indicates that an above average % of TD's picks make the roster, and they see significantly more playing time than the average as well. That has happened on a team that didn't have a winning record in any of the 3 years before TD was hired, and that had the best regular season record in the conference in the 5 years after he became GM. He also has 2 Exec of the year awards from his peers, to show for his efforts.

TD's a very fine GM - a lot better than most on here give him credit for. He inherited an ageing roster with that needed to be gutted, with a lot of overpaid veterans and with a huge amount of dead money to take due to YKW. He has made some mistakes though:

He has traded too many picks away.

Not invested anywhere near enough in the trenches.

The JJ trade was a disaster, which left us without anywhere near enough high value picks to address our lines or replace FA losses. It is by far the biggest single factor in our current mess.

His emphasis on high motor, character types gets us a lot of contributors, but arguably finds high floor/low ceiling types.

The lack of draft picks in recent years has left us with too many needs. Without much cap space to properly fill them, we've had to replace ageing vets like Abe and Turner with cheaper veteran replacements rather then build for the long term.

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He inherited some solid players and a decent oline and turned that offensive line into one of biggest jokes in the NFL. TD inherited White, Abe, Babs , Grimes, Justin Blalock he also had the luxury of a team wanting to trade a draft pick for the likes of talent like D Hall . All Td has done was find a solid head coach to bring stability and leadership and a good QB not great to minimize his turnovers and with a ground control approach from 08-10' Falcons were regular season successful than TD changed philosophy and trading 5 draft picks for a WR. Now TD has clearly made the roster all his with poor trench draft picks and little to no depth and were are where we are 4-12 season and picking inside the top 10

Some solid players = 1 very great player on each side of the ball, and a few serviceable pieces - A team that won 19 games in the 3 previous years. Almost all the veteran pro-bowl talent that took us to the NFCCG in 04 was either gone or needing replacement, and many had inflated contracts that left us in bad cap shape. The team he inherited had no right to compete for at least 3-4 years.

TD did a brilliant job turning things around. Where He went wrong, was in his management of the transition from a young team with a very solid nucleus of guys on very cheap rookie deals, to a team where those players were being paid much greater veteran money. Players who'd had $500k cap, hits were costing $3/4/5/6m. To manage that transition in 2011/12 we needed to hoard picks, to replace the inevitable FA losses with cap friendly cheap talent to re-stock the larder. Trading away picks at a time when we were coming under significant cap - as the players from his early drafts became UFA's - was fatal.

TD sold out for to pursue short term success, which is exactly what 99% of this board begs him to do every year. It was a gamble that very nearly worked in 2012, but there was always going to be a price to pay once the loss of those picks began to kick in. It was as inevitable as night follows day.

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What boss doesn't say this? It always falls on the man on the top even when it sometimes shouldn't.

Exactly. What else is he supposed to say? Pointing fingers is worse than owning it. He's not the only one in the war room. The fact that he reached out to pioli shows he has recognized his mistakes and he needs help. Takes a strong person to admit they are wrong.

You'd have to say td by default has hit on bartu and worrilow. Or does someone else get credit for that.

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I think a lot has to do with TD's flaws but also not having the support he has now. Coordinators give GMs players they like and would fit their schemes. GMs don't understand schemes off bat. They lean on their coordinators until they understand their schemes. It's no coincidence the 2013 draft was the best since 2008. We have better coordinators and we are stengthening our personnel department again.

TD isn't flawless and his flaws were more prominent with subpar coordinators and losing GM quality personnel men. But I'd be willing to bet we string off a couple of strong offseasons with Nolan/Koetter, two guys who know their schemes in and out, and a triumvirate of TD, Pioli and Vital. If we add Devaney, it's only better.

Well thought-out post.
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Just curious --- what do people want from TD this offseason. It'll be easier to judge if he did good or bad by you if you lay it out there for us to see.

Too many people stay silent so they can use 20/20 hindsight and say he shoulda done this or that differently.

I've been very clear on what I expect:

1) More cuts: SJax (once we sign a better vet RB), DeCoud (once we sign Jairus Byrd), Osi (once we sign one of the top 3 DEs), Snelling, Reynolds

2) Restructurings: Matt Ryan, Roddy, Blalock --- all 3 of these guys have bloated salaries killing our cap. A simple salary to bonus restructure (like Fitzgerald) would save $20 million between the 3 of them !!

3) now with over $40 million in cap space (that's top 3 cap space I believe), go sign:

A] one of top 3 DEs (Hardy, Orakpo, MJ)

B] FS Jairus Byrd

C] one of top 3 DTs (Raji, Linval, Houston)

D] give Robert McClain a low restricted FA tag (too many CB FAs for anyone to want him after last year) and resign Babs on a very small 2 year deal, $1.5 mil each or he can walk. Let Peters and Jerry go.

E] sign Alex Mack if he hits free agency. He is our #1 OL priority because we can't win if DLs blow up our OL from the interior. Konz is a bust and better to call it now then have him cost us another season; if Konz gets better he can compete at RG (doubt it).

F] sign value OG and OT. I love what Willie Colon can bring to our OLine -- he took a talented but underachieving NYJ OLine and made them a unified, nasty, tough unit that became a top 6 unit. He can get even Baker to show a little **** fight. At OT I think Oher is going to out price himself like Jake Long did, and then be forced to take a 3 year value deal to re-hit the market later. TD loved him in his draft and B-More jumped us to draft him --- if he doesn't have a hot market I expect him to be a Falcon finally (he can also play LT in a pinch which is important with Baker's back issues). If not Oher, bring back Clabo who was good in the 2nd half for Miami or other solid vets like David Stewart or even Austin Howard. If Harvey Dahl is cut by STL I wouldn't mind getting the back together for pennies (Dahl and Clabo) because they played so well together and it's a no risk/high upside move.

G] as mentioned with SJax I expect us to make a run at McFadden or Chris Johnson in free agency -- they would just take the exact money ($3 mil) that SJax was getting paid. DMC has same durability issues as SJax but when healthy is 100x more explosive; CJ is incredibly durable which goes unnoticed and doesn't miss games -- and I think if he was out in a situation where he had to show out to earn another big pay day he could be the CJ2K of old -- especially in a dome on turf and with our passing weapons emptying boxes.

H] a veteran TE in free agency to complement Toilolp so we don't have to force a draft pick like we did moving up for Trufant because we whiffed on Keenan Lewis last year. My favorite for this is Zach Miller in Seattle who should be cut --- top 3 blocker in NFL, underrated receiver, won't cost much. Finley is also an option and I'm sure we'd be at the top of his list, but he's more receiving only and we wouldn't be able to run power with him as the lone TE on the field (IMO). Fred Davis for $1 mil on 1 year is interesting as well.

I] if we can't get some of the above and we have a lot of money to spend, a Plan B that I've grown fond of is going hard after a top CB (Talib) and moving Alford to slot CB. We'd have Talib and Trufant outside with 5'10 insane athlete Alford inside and McClain as injury insurance and our dime CB --- giving us the best CB quad in the NFL IMO and our LOB if we succeed in signing Byrd. With a secondary like that we could draft pass rushers and they'd have a chance to get to the QB because receivers just won't be open. I'm worried about Alford on the outside because of his size and I know his aggressiveness and size is an asset in the slot instead of a detriment outside going against 6'5 VJax and 6'4 Colston and 6'5 Kelvin Benjamin if Carolina does in Round 1 what I think it should.

And that's the free agency --- seems like a lot but with $45 million to spend we can do a lot. I'm only calling for 3 big $ moves: DE, FS, DT. One mid-market move: C. And a handful of small money moves: OG, OT, RB, TE, resigning 2 of our own. Ideally we get Orakpo (ideal DE/OLB), Raji (ideal DT/NT), Byrd (ideal FS). MJ, Linval, Ward are all strong Plan Bs.

Draft:

A]fully expect to trade up to #2 for Clowney. Clowney with Orakpo (or MJ/Hardy) would just be amazing off the edge in both the 4-3 and in 3-4 OLB sets. I expect us to use our 2015 #1 so I won't be one of the people screaming we've been Dimitroff'd if we give #6, 2015 #1 and FS Thomas DeCoud to the Rams for #2. I'd instead be thrilled.

B] I expect a DT with the 2nd pick unless one of the top 3 TEs falls: ASJ or Amaro. ASJ can be our Jimmy Graham in terms of how they use him --- lucky for us he had a down final year but his tale just screams that he has the ability to dominate games. He'll be a better pro than college player for sure. That said, if Timmy Jernigan is there at #24 I think we should move up for a DT. I've said in many threads the sweet spot in this draft for a DT is #16 to #32 because doubtful any will go before that and doubtful any of the top ones will be available after that: Jernigan, Donald, Nix III, Hageman, Tuitt. If we sign a NT type (Raji/Linval) then Jernigan or Hageman or Donald makes sense. If we sign a 3-tech type (Houston/Melton) then Louis Nix III makes sense.

The trade up will be something like #2 and 2015 #2 with WR Harry Douglas (Kansas City at 23 makes a lot of sense). I expect TD to use our 2015 picks now to build a contender because if we aren't in the playoffs he won't be around for the 2015 offseason --- so essentially I'm on board because it will allow us to attack this draft and there is special talent for our team needs.

C] I expect RB and TE in some order in around 3 and 4. If Tre Mason is still available atop the 3rd i think he's our guy --- he reminds me of a more explosive Ray Rice. Even if we get DMC on a 1 year deal, a 1-2 punch with Tre would be ideal and Tre could also take over as feature back in case of injury. Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Charles Sims, Ka'Deem Carey, Carlos Hyde are other options, as well as former HS phenom Lache Seastrunk.

I've loved CJ Fiedorowicz since he enrolled at Iowa but it appears the horrible coaching staff took one of the most decorated HS TE prospects in the history of HS recruiting into a 6th OLineman for their power run scheme as they've never had a good QB. 6'6 and a half and 260 lbs with 4.65 speed -- strong blocker, good hands makes him a great red zone threat as well as intermediate receiver. Due to basically no stats in college he should be available for our early 4th rounder.

If ASJ runs a horrible 40 and somehow falls to our early 3rd -- he's obviously the pick and then we take a RB in the 4th.

D] I expect a super talented prospect with off field questions atop the 5th --- essentially go BPA by pure talent and that's usually an early round talent still on the board because of off field concerns. The guy I've zeroed in on here is Seantrel Henderson -- the OT from Miami who we coached at the Senior Bowl. Former Oregon move TE Colt Lyerla is another possibility at 6'5 250 with 4.55 speed (basically has the talent of top 40 pick to be Jace Amaro but potentially faster) IF his legal issues with cocaine possession are resolved -- and he would go on a one strike policy in ATL tho I doubt he ever f's up again because it wouldn't just mean he is cut -> it means jail time.

E] I want Larry Webster on this team. He's a basketball power forward who tried his hand at his fathers position (DE) and found immediate success at Bloomsburg as a 6'6 250 pass rusher with 4.6 40 speed. Watching Webster move though it is very clear that he could be a Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates tight end in the NFL. Teams have already asked him to try out at TE and it's an easier position to translate your power forward/bball skills to --- jumping, boxing out in the end zone for fades and curls, all of which are much more natural actions than battling with an enormous NFL OT trying to get to the QB. Honestly he's such a natural athlete that maybe he could be a stud DE with a few YEARS of coaching and added strength. But he could make an impact right away as a role playing TE and take over in Year 2 --- same progression as Jimmy Graham.

F] with our last pick, I expect to go BPA or add a kicker to compete with Matt Bryant because if we can move on from Bryant one year early on his $2.75 million deal in his last contract year. That money can more than pay for one year of Darren McFadden, or Emmanuel Sanders as a slot WR, or Zach Miller or Jermichael Finley as our new starting TE, or Willie Colon as our starting RG. I think we bring in a young kicker and as long as he holds up well, Bryant is a goner and we get almost $3 mil more to spend on quality FAs.

So all my cards are out on the table. Make it happen TD!

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I for the life of me don't know why so many of these TATF clowns worship dude so much. It must be the hair. He sucks as a GM. If I were Blank I would have fired him last month. Even a clueless mofo could have seen that 2013 train wreck coming three years ago. Buddy just doesn't know how to build the trenches.

Pioli helping him out.

LOL @ 3 years ago

"I bet we'll have a really bad season in 3 years!!"

No, what most likely happened is you bitched about the team for 3 years running and finally got a bad season to hang your hat on.

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I think this argument has points that go in both directions. It's impossible to prove either case when you look at GM moves Vs our record over the last 6 years.

I'll say this, this is the first season where we are projected to have PLENTY of cap space AND a nice position in the draft. This my friend is a GMs wet dream. Lets just see what TD does and see how it pans out. If he makes all the right moves and we're back in the playoff hunt then TD lovers you win. If we look back after this off season and FAs didn't pan out, draft picks didn't pan out THEN TD's critics you win.

This is the PERFECT off season to end this debate. TD can't clam experience, he's been on the job for 6 years now. TD can't claim his supporting cast wasn't intact, he has Pioli, TD can't say he didn't have the money to spend, a Owner who wasn't frugal, a Draft with slim picks, or a QB/core to build around, AND AAAAAAANNNNNNDDDDDD glaring obvious needs for the team.

I'm going to hold my judgment, watch the off season, then when the season starts see what kind of product we have on the field.

Edited by raumin
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