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Theprof Projects Atlanta's 2014 Compensatory Draft Picks


theProf
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Abe, Dunta, Turner, and Clabo were all cut by the Falcons in 2013 before their contract terms ended. Therefore none of these players will count as UFAs lost and will not enter into the compensable formula in 2014. Atlanta lost 6 UFAs in 2013: Grimes ($5.5m new one-year contract= 4th round), Walker ($2m new contract= 6th or 7th), Owens ($1m new contact= 7th) , Svitec ($1m new contract =7th), McCown ($905,000 new contract= 7th), and Sidbury ($780,000 new contract). However, Sidbury will NOT count in the compensatory formula as a qualified free agent lost, because his annual salary is below the minimum cut-off point. The cutoff is somewhere between $800,000 to $900,000.

Atlanta lost 5 compensable FAs in 2013: Grimes, Owens, Walker, Svitek, and McCown. Atlanta signed 2 compensable UFAs in 2013: S-Jax (average annual comp = $4m = 5th round) and Osi (average annual comp =$4,250,000 = 5th round). Therefore, Atlanta has a NET LOSS of 3 UFAs = 3 comp picks. Since Jackson and Osi are higher rounds comps than Grimes, they can not cancel out Grimes. Therefore, Osi will cancel out Walker, and S-Jax will cancel out Owens.

That would leave Atlanta 3 comp picks in the 2014 draft: a 4th rounder for Grimes, and two 7th rounders for Svitek and McCown, according to my projection.

Some have questioned as to whether Osi and S-Jax wil count or not. I'm almost certain that both of these players will count in the comp formula because neither one was technically "cut or released". Both became UFAs due to the final year in their contracts being "voided". Osi's contract was voided due to a "technicality" in his contract. Jackson's contract gave him the option to void his final year. I believe that if a player becomes an unrestricted free agent, without being released or cut while under contract, then they will figure into the compensatory draft formula. Therefore, both Osi and S-Jax should count as qualified UFAs signed by Atlanta, in my opinion. I base this upon the following excerpt from Adamjt, the renown compensatory draft guru:

"In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 27 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value or contract value must be above a specific minimum amount; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team."

http://adamjt13.blog...-nfl-draft.html

"Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora's contract was voided at 4:01 p.m. ET on Thursday due to a technicality in his contract. He is now an unrestricted free agent, according to Jenny Vrentas, the Giants' beat writer for The Star-Ledger."

St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson will void the final year of his contract and become a free agent next month, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Monday night, citing unnamed NFL sources.......This will be Jackson's first experience as a free agent. According to Thomas, Jackson wants to play for a Super Bowl contender.

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Grimes wouldn't get a boost for the pro bowl like Kerney did?

Grimes annual compensation of $5.5m, should by itself, garner the Falcons a 4th-round comp pick for Grimes imo. I seriously doubt that his annual compensation is high enough for a 3rd-round comp pick, even if he makes the pro bowl.

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Grimes annual compensation of $5.5m, should by itself, garner the Falcons a 4th-round comp pick for Grimes imo. I seriously doubt that his annual compensation is high enough for a 3rd-round comp pick, even if he makes the pro bowl.

I thought the same about Patrick Kerney, but he wound up getting ATL a 3rd.
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I thought the same about Patrick Kerney, but he wound up getting ATL a 3rd.

Even in 2007, Kerney's contract with Seattle had higher annual compensation of $6.6m compared to Grimes $5.5m in 2013.

"Kerney, 29, got a six-year, $39.5 million contract that included $19.5 million in guarantees. He was involved in a two-way negotiating battle with the Seahawks and Denver Broncos. The decision was going to be a tough one, but it required a deadline. Kerney and his agents used the length of a flight to make his decision."

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=2789120

Another quote from Adamjt:

"Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. "

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McCown may or may not count depending on what the minimum cut off is - adamjt even stated that this increases every year.

Grimes based solely on contract is also a borderline 4th/5th - Kendall Langford signed a 4 year $24mm contract with the Rams and Miami only received a 5th last year. I'd hope with the pro bowl selection he will be a 4th but there were a lot of bigger contracts signed in the offseason.

Everything else I agree with.

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McCown may or may not count depending on what the minimum cut off is - adamjt even stated that this increases every year.

Grimes based solely on contract is also a borderline 4th/5th - Kendall Langford signed a 4 year $24mm contract with the Rams and Miami only received a 5th last year. I'd hope with the pro bowl selection he will be a 4th but there were a lot of bigger contracts signed in the offseason.

Everything else I agree with.

Thanks for that update on Kendall Langford. I hadn't realized that a 5th round comp pick had gone to that high of an annual compensation player, as I thought that level almost always garnered a 4th round comp pick. Although Langford was reported as having signed a 4-year $24m contract by Rotoworld, Spotrac has Langford's contract at $22m or a $5.5m average annual contract value linked as follows:

http://www.spotrac.c...ndall-langford/

As for McCown counting, usually a contract over $900,000 exceeds the minimum threshold to count in the compensable formula. I've even seen the minimum threshold go down into the $8-hundred thousands in some years.

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McCown may or may not count depending on what the minimum cut off is - adamjt even stated that this increases every year.

Grimes based solely on contract is also a borderline 4th/5th - Kendall Langford signed a 4 year $24mm contract with the Rams and Miami only received a 5th last year. I'd hope with the pro bowl selection he will be a 4th but there were a lot of bigger contracts signed in the offseason.

Everything else I agree with.

I now don't think you are right in your opinion about Kendall Langford only garnering a 5th-round comp pick. I just did more research on the 2013 compensatory draft and saw where Miami had a net loss of two players and thus two comp picks, a 5th round and a 7th round. Miami lost Langford, Chad Henne, and Will Allen; and they signed Richard Marshall. Richard Marshall's new contract with the Dolphin was a 3-year $16m contract = $5.3m per year average annual. I believe that Marshall and Langford were both 4th-round value FAs as they were both in the $5m to 6m per year range, and thus cancelled-out each other. That left Miami receiving a 5th round comp pick for Henne (not Langford) who signed a 2-year $6.75m contract with the Jags, and a 7th round pick for Allen, in my opinion.

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I now don't think you are right in your opinion about Kendall Langford only garnering a 5th-round comp pick. I just did more research on the 2013 compensatory draft and saw where Miami had a net loss of two players and thus two comp picks, a 5th round and a 7th round. Miami lost Langford, Chad Henne, and Will Allen; and they signed Richard Marshall. Richard Marshall's new contract with the Dolphin was a 3-year $16m contract = $5.3m per year average annual. I believe that Marshall and Langford were both 4th-round value FAs as they were both in the $5m to 6m per year range, and thus cancelled-out each other. That left Miami receiving a 5th round comp pick for Henne (not Langford) who signed a 2-year $6.75m contract with the Jags, and a 7th round pick for Allen, in my opinion.

You may be right but according to this Henne and Marshall cancelled each other out.

http://www.thephinsider.com/2013/3/18/4117538/miami-dolphins-awarded-round-compensatory-pick

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You may be right but according to this Henne and Marshall cancelled each other out.

http://www.thephinsi...mpensatory-pick

To be honest, i don't think the writer of that article knew what he was trying to talk about when he said:

"Every player a team signs, negates a player they lost, with a lower salaried loss being negated by a higher salary gain. For example, the Dolphins lost three players for consideration this year, quarterback Chad Henne, cornerback Will Allen and Langford. The team signed cornerback Richard Marshall. Looking at their salaries, Marshall was signed for 3-years, $16 million, which is used to negate the 2-year, $6.75 million contract Henne signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. That left Langford and Allen to land picks."

That's not really how the comp formula works. Players with the same comp value round cancel-out each other first. A qoute from Adamjt:

"In the compensatory equation, each qualifying player that a team signs cancels out a qualifying player that the team lost whose value is the highest in the same round. If there are no lost players remaining in that round, the signed player cancels out the lost player whose value is the next-highest. A signed player will cancel out a lost player whose value falls in a higher round only if there are no remaining lost players. After all of a team's qualifying signed players have canceled out a lost player, the team can receive a comp pick for each qualifying player who remains. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value falls in the third round and another qualifying player whose value falls in the sixth round but signs a qualifying player whose value falls in the third round. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value were equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player."

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I honestly dont think anyone knows how the comp picks are awarded fully. Some have a better understanding than others I will say

You are correct in that the actual compensatory formula is still a "secret". People can only speculate about this secret formula based upon analysing the actual comp picks awarded each year. This is how comp draft guru adamjt was able to predict the compensatory draft with amazing accuracy, but even he admitted it was a secret formula. A quote from adamjt:

"As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula. Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract value used in the equation does not include some parts of the contract, and that the contract information reported in the media is often incorrect."

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the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. "

I've mentioned before that I used to talk to the poster in question about this going back almost 10 years now. One of the agreements we had was that the number of snaps is the second biggest factor. People focusing on Grimes' making the Pro Bowl are missing the bigger picture. Grimey played almost 1,100 snaps this year on defense and special teams. That's the key aspect of the conversation with him. Compare his snaps to, say, Paul Kruger, a player who received a larger contract. Kruger was on the field for 930 snaps. Grimey's ~1080 is a *ton*.

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