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Why I Think We Should Go Offense At #6


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We've all heard speculation on whether we'll draft offense or defense with our first pick, and I would speculate that the choice is offense.

Here's the reason why, and I won't just use reasoning, It's mostly talk, with a few statistics thrown in for the stat junkies.

First off, we're an offense-based team. If that wasn't apparent to you, you might want to watch the games post-2011. In 2012, in case you guys didn't remember, WE HAD A GOOD DEFENSE. A few main issues were our inability to stop the run (Paul Worrilow has proved himself to be a much better starter and stout run defender than Dent) and everytime Nolan switched to the 4-3 to stop the run, we could never cover the pass (Bartu is a much better pass defender than Nicholas). Another issue, which was our absolute biggest one, was the inability to rush the passer. The reason for that could be looked at many different ways. One could say we don't have an elite pass rusher, I'd say Osi gets the job done if he had any help. Another could say we don't have a stout, pass rushing DT, and I'd agree on that, but many teams do not and they are very hard to come by.

But one thing, that we absolutely need, is a major upgrade on either of our lines with a top draft pick, but why pick offense?

It's simply because time and time again, drafting DEs in the draft has proved to be the most risky position when compared to drafting OTs with top picks. Here's a list of top 10 NFL Draft picks used on OTs dating from 2010versus top 10 NFL draft picks on DE/DTs. (Asterisks mean immediate impact player, two asterisks means injured)

2010 NFL DRAFT

OT, Trent Williams - Pro Bowl, 2x Pro Bowler *

OT, Russel Okung, 1x Pro Bowler (2012) *

DT, Ndamukong Suh, 3x Pro Bowler *

DT, Gerald McCoy, 1x Pro Bowler (2013)

DE, Tyson Alaulu, bust

_______________________________________________________________

2011 NFL DRAFT:

OT, Tyron Smith, 1x Pro Bowler (2012) *

DE, Marcell Dareus, *

(JJ Watt was selected at #11 to be fair and unbiased, but was considered a reach at the time)

_______________________________________________________________

2012 NFL DRAFT:

Matt Kalil, 1x Pro Bowler (2012) *

DT, Dontari Poe, 1x Pro Bowler (2013) (selected at #11)

DT, Fletcher Cox, (Decent player, but no better than Corey Peters, IMO)

As you can see here, OT picks in the top 10 have resulted in some great players that came in and made immediate impact.. while DL has been a bit more risky, and when it works, they tend to be project players. It's too early to tell on Eric Fisher who has shown he can be very good, but is still making rookie mistakes, and needs to work on not getting caught holding. As for Luke Joeckel, he's been very good from what I've heard from Jacksonville fans and they're excited to see more from him.

However, I will definitely argue that if TD wants to go any draft position on defense during the draft, it NEEDS to be DT. It has a higher success rate than DE (DE picks in the top 10 was a much higher failure rate dating back to 2005, though I didn't go back that far to put in the list) and would drastically improve our run defense and pass rush if we do happen to gamble and get a good one.

But OT has the safest production rate out of any other position selected in the top 10. If an OT is deemed worthy of being drafted in the top 5, he is probably going to end up in the Pro Bowl.

Keeping Matt Ryan off of his back is top priority and selecting a top pick is necessary for it, it easier to address the DL through free agency than it is an offensive line. Selecting an OT at #6 would keep Lamar Holmes off the field, and give him time to get better as was the plan when drafting him, and would give Ryan the much needed protection on his back that we saw him take wreckless sack after sack to this season.

EDIT: With that being said, Jadaveon Clowney is my favorite college player, and though I would take an OT over him, I would still be a bit excited to see him play in Falcons uniform if we did draft him.

Edited by ChickenBiscuit
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Before someone says "OTs don't result in wins, though", which I've heard more than once. Consider this:

How many times have you seen Matt Ryan take a relentless sack to his blindside? How many times has he had to force throws that resulted in INTs, or been pressured into checking down? If you want us to HAVE a downfield passing attack, he has to have protection. The reason Koetter was so predictable in 2012 was because our offensive line can't run block, and he had to run the ball to at least show the defense that he's willing to run so they wouldn't just constantly pass blitz. If we at least show improvement to run blocking, our offense will take a tremendous step forward. Our ability to run the ball is even more important than a TE.

I'd be a bit disappointed if TD didn't double dip OL in the first two rounds. Later round DL pickups have worked more than later round OL pickups. We've learned that the hard way.

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Look, you can throw all the cute stats and numbers around all you want, but the simple fact is the draft is nothing more than a crap shoot. You just DON'T KNOW if a player is going to pan out or not. Look at all the big name "can't miss" players that missed. Aaron Curry is the most recent that comes to mind. I could look up many others, but the whole point is, you just don't know.

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Look, you can throw all the cute stats and numbers around all you want, but the simple fact is the draft is nothing more than a crap shoot. You just DON'T KNOW if a player is going to pan out or not. Look at all the big name "can't miss" players that missed. Aaron Curry is the most recent that comes to mind. I could look up many others, but the whole point is, you just don't know.

1) The only "cute stats" I used was just information on players drafted on our positions of need from past drafts.

2) I never said it was a sure thing, just that the success rate is higher for a reason and it's because OTs are easier to evaluate than an one explosive DE.

3) Actually read the post before talking. And if you did, skimming doesn't count.

Edited by ChickenBiscuit
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Corey Peters: 5 Sacks, 46 tackles.

Fletcher Cox: 3 sacks, 41 tackles.

Am I missing something?

Cox: Career numbers: 80 Comb. 61 Total. 19 Ast. 8.5 Sacks. 1 FF. 1 FR. 7 PD. 6 STF.

Peters: Career Numbers: 120 Comb. 86 Total. 34 Ast. 9.0 Sacks. 1 FF. 1 FR. 7 PD. 6 STF.

Aside from tackles, Cox and Peters have very similar career numbers. Unfortunately, Peters has played 4 years and Cox has played 2. That would be the same amount of production in half the time. Nothing against Peters, but Cox has been much more productive.

And with Marcell Dareus,

153 Comb. 104 Total. 49 Ast. 18.5 Sacks. 1 FF. 2 FR. 11 PD. 7 STF. and a blocked kick.

He has had great production for an interior lineman. Not a bust.

Edited by Mike Kenn
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1st of all Tyson alualu was projected late 1st early 2nd, all it took was a dumbass team like Jax to draft him that early. 2nd of all I agree with u needing a OT but all the tackles worth drafting 6th are LTs & were stuck with baker as bad as it may seem. So it's to me it's either draft clowney or trade down to get picks like the Julio Jones deal

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Cox: Career numbers: 80 Comb. 61 Total. 19 Ast. 8.5 Sacks. 1 FF. 1 FR. 7 PD. 6 STF.

Peters: Career Numbers: 120 Comb. 86 Total. 34 Ast. 9.0 Sacks. 1 FF. 1 FR. 7 PD. 6 STF.

Aside from tackles, Cox and Peters have very similar career numbers. Unfortunately, Peters has played 4 years and Cox has played 2. That would be the same amount of production in half the time. Nothing against Peters, but Cox has been much more productive.

And with Marcell Dareus,

153 Comb. 104 Total. 49 Ast. 18.5 Sacks. 1 FF. 2 FR. 11 PD. 7 STF. and a blocked kick.

He has had great production for an interior lineman. Not a bust.

C

1st of all Tyson alualu was projected late 1st early 2nd, all it took was a dumbass team like Jax to draft him that early. 2nd of all I agree with u needing a OT but all the tackles worth drafting 6th are LTs & were stuck with baker as bad as it may seem. So it's to me it's either draft clowney or trade down to get picks like the Julio Jones deal

Have you ever considered drafting a LT and moving Baker to left or, I don't know..Moving whoever we draft to RT?

Literally, anything is better than Lamar Holmes.

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