The Top 7 Picks As I See Them Now - Post O'brien(Hou) And Lovie(Tampa) Hires

[g-dawg]

New coaching regimes mean new outlooks and desires - while neither O'Brien nor Love will be GMs, the GMs will give these two coaches a lot of latitude and will listen to what they want.

Here is how I see it and why (not even who I necessarily would pick - but what I think will happen):

1. Houston Texans-Teddy Bridgewater, QB-Louisville - Simply put, it has to be a QB. I reserve the right that another could knock Teddy off (Bortles/Hundley) before the draft but the Texans have to do their research and commit to someone. While I am sure Clowney will be tempting, this is really the only choice.
   
2. ***TRADE***Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jadeveon Clowney, DE-South Carolina - Lovie is a defensive coach and he has the makings of another dominant defense. Right or wrong, he will convince himself that they will be fine with Glennon at QB. Watch out for this defense because it is looking stout. Tampa gives up its 2nd rounder, 4th rounder and 2015 2nd rounder.
   
3. Jacksonville Jaguars-Blake Bortles, QB-Central Florida - this just feels like a Junior Falcon GM pick and David Caldwell is the former 1st lieutenant of Dimitroff in Atlanta. Bortles has the size and athletic ability - he's not a finished product but has everything you look for and moxie to boot.
   
4. Cleveland Browns-Johnny Manziel, QB-Texas A&M - Here is where it starts to get interesting for the Falcons as we are within breathing distance of our pick. Browns have 2 first rounders but they have to get their QB now because they have drafted "QBs galore" but have the worst history in last 20 years of drafting QBs - Manziel is a 'shoot-the-moon' pick but Lombardi will roll-the-dice here.
   
5. Oakland Raiders-Brett Hundley, QB-UCLA - I believe that if Mora leaves for Texas then Hundley will definitely come out and is probably already leaning that way. At 6'3" with a live arm and fantastic running ability - Hundley is the dual threat that Terrelle Pryor never was.
   
6. Atlanta Falcons-Jake Matthews, OT-Texas A&M - Thomas Dimitroff will race to the podium to make this pick - Matthews checks all the boxes in what Dimitroff is looking for and Matthews is at the Falcons #1 position of need. Matthews will be the Falcons long-term left tackle whether its this year or next - either way, he starts at one of the tackle positions in 2014.
   
7. ***TRADE***St. Louis Rams-Sammy Watkins, WR-Clemson - Les Snead was hoping to grab Jake Matthews here but stays put knowing he can get a decent left tackle in top 1/3 of 2nd round with pick from Tampa (say James Hurst).
   

I still am not sold on Jake Matthews just yet but he seems like a Dimitroff/Smitty type player - if draft played out like this - they probably would take Matthews. I might would take Greg Robinson straight-up over Matthews - Falcons will never take Robinson though - for one, he's a redshirt sophmore and Falcon will hate that. #2) Robinson plays in an unconventional offense and our scouts won't be able to project what he will be in the NFL. I'm troubled by the lack of dominant tape on Jake Matthews - have yet to see him look impressive - couple that with Matthews' average size (305lbs and 6'4") and this pick scares me to death. However, if the pundits are right and Matthews is #1 LT, then the pick will be a good one.

With regards to the trade and why it makes sense:

For Tampa,

Lovie is a defensive master when he has the talent. You give Lovie Smith a defense with Revis, McCoy, L. David and Clowney - and he will put a hurtin' on offenses. Tampa's roster is deeper than the Falcons and they can easily give up the two 2nd rounders and 4th rounder and still be fine - they still have cap space as well.

For St. Louis - In spite of all the picks from the RGIII trade, the Rams still have holes to fill. The added 2nd rounder allows for Rams to get a playmaker in top 10(#7-Sammy Watkins-WR), draft the needed safety in the middle of round 1(#14-HaHa Clinton-Dix), grab the offensive tackle to tandem with Jake Long(#35-James Hurst) and still leaves the team with another 2nd rounder and the rest of their draft intact.

[maorifalcon]

Hmmm thats a lot of Qbs that are reaches...gimmie robinson from Auburn if he declares

[RYNE]

I actually think Blake Bortles will end up going #1 overall and I'll tell you why. Bill O'Brien wants his quarterback to have ideal size which Bridgewater doesn't quite have.

[MSalmon]

Hmmm thats a lot of Qbs that are reaches...gimmie robinson from Auburn if he declares

No way, I'll take Matthews if available. Robinson is second choice

[maorifalcon]

No way, I'll take Matthews if available. Robinson is second choice

But hes a weak *** run blocker

[etherdome]

While I like the idea of a Matthews on our team, I think that Cameron Erving is a better OT.

[Total Package]

If we are going to go OT in the first, I think we should try to trade down to 10-15 area and take the Auburn or Alabama OT. Would like to pick up extra picks-- we need em.

[Shuswap]

But hes a weak *** run blocker

Still a major upgrade over the ladies we had blocking this year .

[ssippifalcon]

I still feel like tampa is gonna go QB. They have a strong d and i get the feeling the team isnt happy with glennon at QB. I got a gut feeling, st louis will take matthews at number 2. Clowney might not fall but i still see us going defense first.

[SuperAINTSfan]

Matthews will be a very good RT. He may play LT because of where he will be drafted but hes a better fit at RT. Cedric Ogbuehi may be the better tackle coming out of Texas A&M.

If Mike Smith still views Baker as the LT, then either one of these 2 could be the pick.

[Ethanga62890]

Manziel at 4? lol I'd be surprised if he goes in the top 15.

[El Captain]

If we are going to go OT in the first, I think we should try to trade down to 10-15 area and take the Auburn or Alabama OT. Would like to pick up extra picks-- we need em.

Cyrus guy didnt look that great last night in the Sugar Bowl

[iQue]

Manziel at 4? lol I'd be surprised if he goes in the top 15.

Everybody is mocking Manziel there. It would be surprising if he doesn't go top five!

[ssippifalcon]

Cyrus guy didnt look that great last night in the Sugar Bowl

i agree, i didnt like him at all. Couldnt stop the speed rush. I liked the center though.

[Falkonator]

I see Bortles Goin #1,

St Louis Staying pat and Taking Matthew's(Watkins will be their with their second 1st)

#3 Jville will pounce on Bridgewater

#4 Browns I keep hearing Love Manziel so it wouldn't surprise me if he went top 5.

#5 I could see Oakland taking Hundley(wouldn't surprise me to see Tampa Jump us but they won't)

#6 yes Jadaveon Clowney lands at our spot.

Why I don't think Tampa jumps up for Clowney is simple, Lovies Biggest Failure was not having an Offense in Chicago, so I see then targeting a QB,will that be at 7, highly Doubtful,I could see them trade down a couple times or draft Derek Carr.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Falkonator

[1989Fan]

Not too bad. My two thoughts.

1- Glennon was good enough to warrant more time. I could see Tampa going QB in rounds 2-3 for competition and insurance. So we agree for the most part here.

2- Lombardi seems like a stubborn guy who would rather go for a prototypical QB than one of these new era dual threat guys. I would be curious to see some of his comments on previous dual threat qb's when he was an analyst.

I would also be very happy w Matthews at 6. It reminds me of Joe Thomas, when someone is so steady, but doesn't have anything to wow you, so people look for any flaw they can find. Wr all know how the 'average, reached his ceiling' Thomas worked out.

I think 2 Qb's go before us and 2-3 trades happen. I think 10-17 there is a run on Qb's, just my hunch.

My mock up to our pick:

1- Hou- Bortles, qb - measurables and workouts will move him to top qb.

2- Cle from Stl - Bridgewater, qb - cle gives their 2nd to move up, has two firsts so its all good.

3- Jax - Clowney, de - no brainer w top qbs gone. Manziel wont go here over clowney.

4- Stl from Cle - Matthews, ot - they still get their guy. Bookend all pro talent tackles.

5- Tampa from Oak - Barr, de - tampa 2 requires quick pass rushers up front. Tampa worries we take him at 6.

6- Atl - what do we do here? Robinson, Mack, Hageman? Who knows. I would trade out if possible and get the top guard or d tackle in the low teens.

[dcfalcons]

I could definitely see that happening .. Lovie loves his DEs and Clowney would be that guy.

[Psychic Gibbon]

If Hundley declares it will be a mistake. Not saying that you're wrong with where he may go if he does or that he won't, since it is likely, but he's still very unpolished and I see his career being a disaster if he goes to Oakland with the level of talent they'd have around him at this time. He needs another year in college.

Also, people are already assuming the Rams are going to trade down again when they're in prime position to get a QB. Bradford is very, very clearly not the answer and he costs $17 million against the cap while they can save $10 million by cutting him. QB is a top need for them yet everyone believes they won't even look at the position.

[Psychic Gibbon]

Matthews will be a very good RT. He may play LT because of where he will be drafted but hes a better fit at RT. Cedric Ogbuehi may be the better tackle coming out of Texas A&M.

If Mike Smith still views Baker as the LT, then either one of these 2 could be the pick.

Nope.

[g-dawg]

If we are going to go OT in the first, I think we should try to trade down to 10-15 area and take the Auburn or Alabama OT. Would like to pick up extra picks-- we need em.

why should we listen to a black racist white supremicist like yourself?

[g-dawg]

I could definitely see that happening .. Lovie loves his DEs and Clowney would be that guy.

yeah, it makes total sense to me.

1. Bucs have a QB that showed something his rook year - he is prototype who is tall with live arm.
   
2. Bucs roster is more complete than Falcons - they have good OL, RB, WR, DT, OLB, CB, FS, SS - so they can afford to give up a few picks.
   
3. Lovie understands that with VJAX and Dougy-Fresh on the offensive side of the ball, a dominant defense could get you to the playoffs.
   
4. Lovie is a defensive guru and has always had a dominant D-Line for most of his career.
   
5. If Glennon does not pan out, you can always go QB next year - but he has shown enough to deserve another chance.
   

[g-dawg]

If Hundley declares it will be a mistake. Not saying that you're wrong with where he may go if he does or that he won't, since it is likely, but he's still very unpolished and I see his career being a disaster if he goes to Oakland with the level of talent they'd have around him at this time. He needs another year in college.

Also, people are already assuming the Rams are going to trade down again when they're in prime position to get a QB. Bradford is very, very clearly not the answer and he costs $17 million against the cap while they can save $10 million by cutting him. QB is a top need for them yet everyone believes they won't even look at the position.

I am making no judgment if Hundley coming out or not is a mistake - you can feel free to do so.

I am saying the guy has NFL tools - speed, size, arm - and he has shown himself to be a weapon - he will be intriguing for NFL teams that do not have a QB - if he comes out, he will be a 1st round pick for sure.

The little blurbs I am reading makes it sound like Hundley is leaning towards coming out. With Mora likely leaving, that just makes it even more obvious.

[g-dawg]

Not too bad. My two thoughts.

1- Glennon was good enough to warrant more time. I could see Tampa going QB in rounds 2-3 for competition and insurance. So we agree for the most part here.

2- Lombardi seems like a stubborn guy who would rather go for a prototypical QB than one of these new era dual threat guys. I would be curious to see some of his comments on previous dual threat qb's when he was an analyst.

I would also be very happy w Matthews at 6. It reminds me of Joe Thomas, when someone is so steady, but doesn't have anything to wow you, so people look for any flaw they can find. Wr all know how the 'average, reached his ceiling' Thomas worked out.

I think 2 Qb's go before us and 2-3 trades happen. I think 10-17 there is a run on Qb's, just my hunch.

My mock up to our pick:

1- Hou- Bortles, qb - measurables and workouts will move him to top qb.

2- Cle from Stl - Bridgewater, qb - cle gives their 2nd to move up, has two firsts so its all good.

3- Jax - Clowney, de - no brainer w top qbs gone. Manziel wont go here over clowney.

4- Stl from Cle - Matthews, ot - they still get their guy. Bookend all pro talent tackles.

5- Tampa from Oak - Barr, de - tampa 2 requires quick pass rushers up front. Tampa worries we take him at 6.

6- Atl - what do we do here? Robinson, Mack, Hageman? Who knows. I would trade out if possible and get the top guard or d tackle in the low teens.

the only part of your scenario that I don't see is Tampa jumping up for Barr. While the McShay's/Kiper's of the world make Clowney/Barr seem like virtually the same player - i don't see it that way and I don't think the NFL scouts/GMs see it the same way. Why would Tampa trade up in front of Atlanta to take Anthony Barr? I don't think Falcons would take Barr.

[lju713]

Bortles is the real deal. He looks like Andrew Luck 2.0 he's not as polished as a passer but he is gutsy and can make all the throws. Wish Matt had his pocket presence.

[g-dawg]

Bortles is the real deal. He looks like Andrew Luck 2.0 he's not as polished as a passer but he is gutsy and can make all the throws. Wish Matt had his pocket presence.

yeah, i think its possible that Bortles could jump Bridgewater - would not shock me. I could see Hundley jumping Manziel as well.