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G-Dawg: Falcons Predicted Draft Slot/schedule Analysis Of 9 Worst Teams...


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yeah, I think we finish around #5 overall - assumes we lose out - here is my prediction:

Projected Draft Order****UPDATED***(2 weeks left):

  1. Houston Texans (2-12) predicted finish 2-14 (vs Denv(L), @ Tenn(L))
  2. St. Louis Rams (via Wash 3-11) Wash predicted finish 3-13 (vs Dal(L), @ NYG(L))
  3. Cleveland Browns (4-10) predicted finish 4-12 (@ NYJ(L), @ Pitt(L))
  4. Oakland Raiders (4-10) predicted finish 4-12 (@ SD(L), vs Denv(L))
  5. Atlanta Falcons (4-10) predicted finish 4-12 (@SF(L), vs Car(L))
  6. Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) predicted finish 4-11-1 (@Cincy(L), vs Det(L))
  7. Jacksonville (4-10) predicted finish 5-11 (vs Tenn(W), @ Indy(L))
  8. Buffalo Bills (5-9) predicted finish 5-11 (vs Mia(L), @ NE(L))
  9. Tampa Bay (4-10) predicted finish 5-11 (@StL(W), @NO(L)

ANALYSIS:

I am not really going out on a limb from here on out - believe most of these teams are packing it in - they will still try and win but I don't forsee many upsets. I think the upsets that will occur will be the teams that I am already projecting behind us winning in an upset. I have the Jags winning one more game and Tampa going on road and beating Rams - if so and Falcons lose out, then we would be picking #5 overall. Maybe we get lucky w/ Raiders or Browns tripping up a favored team but I doubt it.

Obviously its just a guess and anything can happen, but I think Falcons are likely to be picking around #5 overall - which probably decreases/kills the chances for Clowney and probably for making a blockbuster trade as well - if someone wants a specific QB, they probably go higher than our pick to secure him.

Upside - pick#3:

we lose out and Raiders/Browns win one more. Even if Skins win one more game(doubtful), they have the SOS tiebreaker over us.

Downside - pick#9:

basically we win one more game( probably home game vs Carolina) while all those behind us lose out.

Likely pick: pick#5:

for reasons/predictions shown above.

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I think st Louis and Cleveland can win out, and if we lose out, that puts us in the 3rd position..after the rams dominated the saints, I think they can easily beat Dallas and the jets..

Cleveland is tough also and I think they can beat the jets, although the pitt game could be a toss up..

St. Louis is not part of the equation - they are just drafting in Washington's slot - I have St. Louis listed but "via wash" marked next to it - the two remaining games are Redskins games, not St. Louis.

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So who do we take at #3 if Clowney is gone and there are no trade partners? That would be a nightmare scenario.

Anything after #5 I'm good with taking Mack. As long as we get a stud guard from this draft and a young pass rushing threat I will be happy.

That is the million-dollar question, Sui......

If Falcons stuck at #5 and Clowney and, lets say Jake Matthews are off the board - who do you take if you cannot trade down? I probably set up Falcons "top 10" draftboard as follows:

Falcons 2014 1st round draft board:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE-South Carolina
  2. Jake Matthews, OT-Texas A&M
  3. Khalil Mack, OLB-Buffalo
  4. Anthony Barr, OLB-UCLA

I am not super-high on Matthews or Barr. I would assume that Bridgewater would go in the top 5 so one of these 4 players would be available - I would draft them in this order.

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Wahington can beat the Chokers and NYG

without 7 turnovers, maybe.....I do think Cousins gives the Skins a better chance than Bobby Three Sticks right now. Still think the Skins will lose those games - but - yeah, it could happen. Dealing with probabilities - at some point the choking Cowboys have to break thru, but they do seem to be able to find ways to lose and knock themselves out of the playoffs every year.

Trade Down with the Jets . They need Sammy Watkins , Mike Evans or Julio Jones

fixed

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That is the million-dollar question, Sui......

If Falcons stuck at #5 and Clowney and, lets say Jake Matthews are off the board - who do you take if you cannot trade down? I probably set up Falcons "top 10" draftboard as follows:

Falcons 2014 1st round draft board:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE-South Carolina
  2. Jake Matthews, OT-Texas A&M
  3. Khalil Mack, OLB-Buffalo
  4. Anthony Barr, OLB-UCLA

I am not super-high on Matthews or Barr. I would assume that Bridgewater would go in the top 5 so one of these 4 players would be available - I would draft them in this order.

I'm not high on Barr or Matthews either. If the Falcons are at five I would be fine pulling the trigger on Mack. If they can't get Clowney or Mack, I hope they can get out of the top ten and snag Hageman, Mosley, or someone like that.

Heck, I would be good with them trading back and snagging Taylor Lewan with a non top ten pick if they are dead set on a tackle. I'm not in love with Lewan, I would just rather them stack picks than spend a top five on Matthews. Outside of Clowney, its a rough year for top five prospects. Talent from pick #10 through #32 of the first round seems pretty even.

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That is the million-dollar question, Sui......

If Falcons stuck at #5 and Clowney and, lets say Jake Matthews are off the board - who do you take if you cannot trade down? I probably set up Falcons "top 10" draftboard as follows:

Falcons 2014 1st round draft board:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE-South Carolina
  2. Jake Matthews, OT-Texas A&M
  3. Khalil Mack, OLB-Buffalo
  4. Anthony Barr, OLB-UCLA

I am not super-high on Matthews or Barr. I would assume that Bridgewater would go in the top 5 so one of these 4 players would be available - I would draft them in this order.

Ok, you're giving out conflicting data. You mocked Clowney and extoll hus greatness, but then post this:

an internet friend that runs a popular mock-draft website that most of you frequent - says Clowney has real questionable entourage he hangs with. I will leave it at that - if true, Falcons probably won't take Clowney if they were sitting at #1.

If above is true, how come you're putting Clowney on our big board and mocking him? Not deriding you, but you're usually very consistent in your logic. Please clarify

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Ok, you're giving out conflicting data. You mocked Clowney and extoll hus greatness, but then post this:

an internet friend that runs a popular mock-draft website that most of you frequent - says Clowney has real questionable entourage he hangs with. I will leave it at that - if true, Falcons probably won't take Clowney if they were sitting at #1.

If above is true, how come you're putting Clowney on our big board and mocking him? Not deriding you, but you're usually very consistent in your logic. Please clarify

because I am not bent out of shape about that report....I was just putting what I was told out there - I considered it, and it would not keep me from drafting him - it might keep Dimitroff from drafting him though.

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yeah, I think we finish around #5 overall - assumes we lose out - here is my prediction:

Projected Draft Order****UPDATED***(2 weeks left):

  1. Houston Texans (2-12) predicted finish 2-14 (vs Denv(L), @ Tenn(L))
  2. St. Louis Rams (via Wash 3-11) predicted finish 3-13 (vs Dal(L), @ NYG(L))
  3. Cleveland Browns (4-10) predicted finish 4-12 (@ NYJ(L), @ Pitt(L))
  4. Oakland Raiders (4-10) predicted finish 4-12 (@ SD(L), vs Denv(L))
  5. Atlanta Falcons (4-10) predicted finish 4-12 (@SF(L), vs Car(L))
  6. Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) predicted finish 4-11-1 (@Cincy(L), vs Det(L))
  7. Jacksonville (4-10) predicted finish 5-11 (vs Tenn(W), @ Indy(L))
  8. Buffalo Bills (5-9) predicted finish 5-11 (vs Mia(L), @ NE(L))
  9. Tampa Bay (4-10) predicted finish 5-11 (@StL(W), @NO(L)

My projected Draft Order

1. Houston

2. Oakland

3. Falcons

4. Rams (Skins traded away pick)

5. Browns

6. Tampa

7. Jax.

8. Minn

9. Bills

I think the Rams Skins and Browns have a good shot to at least 1 game. Rams Skins over Giants. Browns over Jets. I also think Jax will beat Tenn.

Edited by Objective Critic
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My projected Draft Order

1. Houston

2. Oakland

3. Falcons

4. Rams

5. Browns

6. Tampa

7. Jax.

8. Minn

9. Bills

I think the Rams and Browns have a good shot to at least 1 game. Rams over Giants. Browns over Jets. I also think Jax will beat Tenn.

Skins not Rams and they have to win out. They can because the play the Chokers and Interception Eli.

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My projected Draft Order

1. Houston

2. Oakland

3. Falcons

4. Rams

5. Browns

6. Tampa

7. Jax.

8. Minn

9. Bills

I think the Rams and Browns have a good shot to at least 1 game. Rams over Giants. Browns over Jets. I also think Jax will beat Tenn.

Rams are not playing Giants - Redskins are. I know this is complicated guys - but the Rams have the Redskins pick - thus "via Washington" - in my list.

it does not matter what the Rams do! I re-color coded it for you - LOL.

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Rams are not playing Giants - Redskins are. I know this is complicated guys - but the Rams have the Redskins pick - thus "via Washington" - in my list.

it does not matter what the Rams do!

Well it's not complicated, but I do concede the mistake I made. In either case, the Redskins still have a good shot at beating the Giants. Kirk Cousins has shown to be a good backup, maybe even better than RG3, and the Giants are falling to their losing ways again. I doubt even the skins will give up 7 more turnovers in 1 game again. That being said, I maintain my projected draft ranking.

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Well if this holds up (#5 pick) and it very well might we will miss out on the top tackle (Matthews) and top DE (Clowney) and depending on how some teams rate these QBs we might miss on the top LB (Barr). That 1 point win cost the Falcons..I know some of you don't look at it that way, but next May during the draft none of this will matter..and if TD trades up 2 slots and gives away our draft I may just have a stroke..We are not 1 or 2 players away. We need both lines completely rebuilt.

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Well if this holds up (#5 pick) and it very well might we will miss out on the top tackle (Matthews) and top DE (Clowney) and depending on how some teams rate these QBs we might miss on the top LB (Barr). That 1 point win cost the Falcons..I know some of you don't look at it that way, but next May during the draft none of this will matter..and if TD trades up 2 slots and gives away our draft I may just have a stroke..We are not 1 or 2 players away. We need both lines completely rebuilt.

we should have lost the Bills game as well - if you recall, the Bills gift-wrapped us that game with the PI call when we were like 3rd and 15 on Buffalo 20 with the PI call in the endzone. Then, with under 1 minute left, the Bills were in FG range when the receiver fumbles the ball - in OT, the Bills WR fumbles/gets stripped again at midfield.

Falcons were victorious in both of those games - when they really deserved to lose.

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Also, remember this - bad teams don't win road games very often. Of the 9 teams listed below - there are only 3 bad teams playing at home in week#17 - and those are against teams projected to go to playoffs:

Home Games - week#17:

Atlanta vs. Carolina (playoff team - maybe fighting for division crown)

Oakland vs. Denver (playoff team - maybe fighting for HFA)

Minnesota vs. Detroit (may be fighting just to get into playoffs)

Away Games - week#17:

Houston(1-6/road) @ Tennessee

Washington(1-6/road) @ NY Giants

Cleveland(1-5/road) @ Pittsburgh

Jacksonville(3-4/road) @ Indianapolis (playoff team)

Buffalo(2-5/road) @ New England (playoff team)

Tampa(1-5/road) @ New Orleans (playoff team)

just remember, BAD teams lose road games - home field advantage means a lot.

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Well it's not complicated, but I do concede the mistake I made. In either case, the Redskins still have a good shot at beating the Giants. Kirk Cousins has shown to be a good backup, maybe even better than RG3, and the Giants are falling to their losing ways again. I doubt even the skins will give up 7 more turnovers in 1 game again. That being said, I maintain my projected draft ranking.

well, maybe Cousins will catch fire - he certainly did against Atlanta. Projecting a pathetic Skins team to win 1-of-2 is not far-fetched - however you are predicting the Skins win a home game versus a team vying for playoffs(Cowboys) and go on road and win in week#16. I could see Skins possibly breaking thru and winning one but the odds are GREATLY against them doing both. we will know in two weeks.

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