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Nfl Playoff Machine - Also Works For Draft Order As Shows Final Records


g-dawg
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http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I don't know how the final SOS work but just eyeballing the teams and divisions they are in, I think I can get close.

I have Falcons picking #5 overall. Remaining schedules as follows with my guesses:

Week#15

Falcons over Redskins*

Broncos over Chargers

Bears over Browns*

Colts over Texans*

Patriots over Dolphins

Eagles over Vikings*

Seahawks over Giants

Niners over Bucs*

Jags over Bills*

Chiefs over Raiders*

Panthers over Jets

Cowboys over Packers

Cards over Titans

Saints over Rams*

Steelers over Bengals

Lions over Ravens

Week#16

Niners over Falcons*

Bills over Dolphins*

Bengals over Vikings*

Chiefs over Colts

Bucs over Rams*

Browns over Jets*

Cowboys over Redskins*

Panthers over Saints

Jags over Titans*

Broncos over Texans*

Lions over Giants

Seahawks over Cards

Packers over Steelers

Chargers over Raiders*

Patriots over Ravens

Eagles over Bears

Week#17

Panthers over Falcons*

Bears over Packers

Bengals over Ravens

Cowboys over Eagles

Titans over Texans*

Colts over Jags*

Dolphins over Jets

Lions over Vikings*

Patriots over Bills*

Saints over Bucs

Giants over Redskins*

Steelers over Browns*

Broncos over Raiders*

Niners over Cards

Chargers over Chiefs

Seahawks over Rams*

* = impact game on top 10

Predicted Draft Order:

  1. Houston Texans(2-14)
  2. St. Louis Rams (f/ Wash 3-13)
  3. Minnesota Vikings (3-12-1)
  4. Oakland Raiders (4-12) - SOS tiebreaker over Falcons
  5. Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
  6. Buffalo Bills (5-11)^
  7. Cleveland Browns (5-11)^
  8. St. Louis Rams (5-11)^
  9. Tampa Bay Bucs (5-11)^

^ = estimated tiebreaker on SOS (did not look up!)

discuss......

obviously I am not Vegas oddsmaker and will miss on some games - but only about half games impact it anyway.

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At this point, if you want us to have a higher draft pick, then you should be rooting for anyone with 4 or fewer wins to win their games. All other games are meaningless. Even if you think that we'll win on Sunday, all of the other low win teams have at least one winnable game left on their schedules. Even at a record of 4-12, it's still quite possible that we end up with a top 3 pick or better. We'll just have to wait and see how things fall.

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At this point, if you want us to have a higher draft pick, then you should be rooting for anyone with 4 or fewer wins to win their games. All other games are meaningless. Even if you think that we'll win on Sunday, all of the other low win teams have at least one winnable game left on their schedules. Even at a record of 4-12, it's still quite possible that we end up with a top 3 pick or better. We'll just have to wait and see how things fall.

understood. I am just trying to help people visualize a likely draft order pick if we win this week. If we lose out, then we willpick no lower than #2.

If we go 1-2, as oddsmakers would predict, then we likely pick between #5-7 and I think #5 overall is likely. If we win two games, we likely are #9 or later...

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understood. I am just trying to help people visualize a likely draft order pick if we win this week. If we lose out, then we willpick no lower than #2.

If we go 1-2, as oddsmakers would predict, then we likely pick between #5-7 and I think #5 overall is likely. If we win two games, we likely are #9 or later...

Yeah, it wasn't meant as an attack on you, per se. Sorry if it came off that way. I'm just tired of some of the more extreme tankers, seeming to think that none of the other low win teams have any chance of winning anything else this season. Compared to us, most of them actually a quite winnable last few games. On our side, it's just Sunday. unsure.png

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Yeah, it wasn't meant as an attack on you, per se. Sorry if it came off that way. I'm just tired of some of the more extreme tankers, seeming to think that none of the other low win teams have any chance of winning anything else this season. Compared to us, most of them actually a quite winnable last few games. On our side, it's just Sunday. unsure.png

Agreed. This is what I have going down the stretch

Atlanta (1-2)

Houston (0-3)

Washinton (0-3)

Raiders (0-3)

Vikings(0-3)

Bills (1-2)

Browns (1-2)

Bucs (1-2)

Jags (2-1)

Rams (0-3)

so I have several teams winning at least one game.

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This is how I see it:

In no particular order, and I didn't include any teams with more than 4 wins.

Washington

@Atlanta - winnable

Dallas - loss

@Giants - winnable

Cleveland

Chicago - winnable

@Jets - winnable

@Steelers - winnable

Atlanta

Redskins - winnable

@49ers - loss

Panthers - loss

Houston

@Colts - winnable

Denver - loss

@Titans - winnable

Vikings

Eagles - winnable

@Bengals - loss

Detroit - loss

Bucs

49ers - loss

@Rams - winnable

@Saints - loss

Bills

@Jaguars - winnable

Miami -winnable

@Patriots - loss

Jaguars

Bills - winnable

Titans- winnable

@Colts - loss

Oakland

Chiefs - loss

@Chargers - winnable

Denver - loss

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This is how I see it:

In no particular order, and I didn't include any teams with more than 4 wins.

....

You've left off the game 16 games against playoff teams that are set in their slot.

CAR vs. ATL, for example- Panthers may not be able to change their playoff position and resting starters. If Newton only plays a quarter or so, much more winnable game for ATL.

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You've left off the game 16 games against playoff teams that are set in their slot.

CAR vs. ATL, for example- Panthers may not be able to change their playoff position and resting starters. If Newton only plays a quarter or so, much more winnable game for ATL.

its rare that teams that don't have homefield locked up, rest starters....there are too many teams muddled together and Panthers are at 9-4 - the last game is likely to mean something.

Lions are tied w/ Chicago and 1/2 game ahead of Packers - the last game against Vikings is likely to mean something.

I don't think there will be a lot of playoff teams other than maybe Seattle and Denver that will be resting people in week#17.

It would help Falcons if Broncos had nothing to play for in week#17 because they play the Raiders - however, I think Broncos would win that game with their scout team and playing at home.

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You've left off the game 16 games against playoff teams that are set in their slot.

CAR vs. ATL, for example- Panthers may not be able to change their playoff position and resting starters. If Newton only plays a quarter or so, much more winnable game for ATL.

Not going to happen. The Panthers played hard, even when they were already eliminated from the playoffs. Seeding being set, won't change anything for them.

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Can live w #5 pick. I dont think we beat WAS, but I would be just fine with a win.

at #5 it takes the pressure off of 'having to take Clowney' because there is a big boom or bust label there.

Five could be a nice spot to take a safe pick LIke Jake Matthews for RT day one, then move him to LT when Baker's contract makes sense to move on.

sign Alex Mack and Wade Smith, and maybe then this offese can look top 5 like it was meant to.

LT - Baker, Holmes, Schraeder

LG - Balock, Konz

OC - Mack, Hawley

RG - Smith, Konz

RT - Matthews, Schraeder

If Washington beats us this weekend, TD can pretty much start scouting for the #1 or #2 overall pick depending if HOU ca beat JAX. (although there would still be the SOS tiebreaker to consider). If we pick top 2 I would DEF be trading out. Looking at what recent years ave netted for those picks, it is amazing. Now that rookie wage scale is in check, teams are willing to go nuts to move up.

I would have CLE on the phone asking for thier first this year, second this year, first next year and Jabaal Sheard to move up to #1 or 2 overall for Teddy B. (I would take a similar haul of picks from any of he top 10 teams looking for the elite QB such as CLE, OAK, JAX, MIN, STL)

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Not sure GDawg. I know I would. I would make him one of the 3 highest paid centers in the league just to make sure I got him. He is top 5 or so, so not a bad value.

Konz he can justify by saying they see him as a guard. Heck, maybe he will improve enough to beat out Blalock and save us some cap space to offset the Wade Smith signing. Then Konz is still starting, and TD's ego doesnt take a hit.

I honestly think Blank will give TD and Smith the '1 year to get it fixed' talk this offseason. Especially w Smth coaching on the last year of his deal. If we dont have a bounce back to the top season in 14, I think Blank cleans house.

I would feel MUCH better about our offenses chance with the line I listed compared to what is on the roster now, thats for sure! We really need to get 2 or 3 newguys on the line who have some 'tough guy' in them, because I KNOW Baker, Konz, Blalock dont have an ounce of it. Hawley and Konz may still be salvagable, and Schraeder is a bad boy as well.

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