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Current Playoff, Sb, And 1St Pick Odds


Big A
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DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick

1 SEA 99.0% -- 1 DEN 27.9% -- 1 JAC 68.1%

2 DEN 97.5% -- 2 SEA 23.6% -- 2 NYG 8.8%

3 NO 88.7% ---- 3 NO 10.7% -- 3 STL 5.4%

4 NE 86.0% ---- 4 NE 9.5% -- 4 OAK 4.8%

5 KC 76.3% ---- 5 GB 4.7% -- 5 TB 4.7%

The biggest surprise so far is Giants in 2nd place as likely to get 1st pick! What a difference a year makes!

Here is link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Edited by Big A
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Wow, they do 50,000 simulations to generate so,e probable numbers and came up with numbers of wins for each team

NO - 10.9 wins

Car - 8.9 wins

ATL - 6.7 wins

TB - 5.1 wins

I wasn't expecting to see ATL with less than 7 projected wins. I doubt that will happen, but they must be putting up so,e pretty bad stats so far for the simulation to result with 6.7 wins.

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Oh how the mighty have fallen.....

Falcons now a 1.7% chance to appear in the NFC Title game and a 0.2% chance to win the Super Bowl.

That has to sting Atlanta fans considering the hype this offseason.

Nevertheless, there is a 50/50 chance that they will beat the Saints later in this season.

There is a great chance that the Saints will be undefeated and get beaten by the Falcons on national TV in primetime.

Personally. I could live with those numbers.

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Nevertheless, there is a 50/50 chance that they will beat the Saints later in this season.

There is a great chance that the Saints will be undefeated and get beaten by the Falcons on national TV in primetime.

Personally. I could live with those numbers.

I'd give you that senerio, because if it means the Saints limp into the playoffs around 13-3 with a #1 seed, I'm all on board. Personally, I could live with this deal.
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Oh how the mighty have fallen.....

Falcons now a 1.7% chance to appear in the NFC Title game and a 0.2% chance to win the Super Bowl.

That has to sting Atlanta fans considering the hype this offseason.

And in fantasyland the NFL ends every season in the first week in October! Come back and talk to WFW in December you will be surprised. As a matter of fact WFW will be pulling up this thread so he can serve some crow...But Hey Jack, WFW is just sayin'cool.png

xJimBrown_RaquelWelch_1.jpg,qitok=VTsqnVQA.pagespeed.ic._lIPQ78X7F.jpg

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And in fantasyland the NFL ends every season in the first week in October! Come back and talk to WFW in December you will be surprised. As a matter of fact WFW will be pulling up this thread so he can serve some crow...But Hey Jack, WFW is just sayin'cool.png

You'd better hope this happens, because if not, I don't think you could eat much more crow than you already have this season.
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Oh how the mighty have fallen.....

Falcons now a 1.7% chance to appear in the NFC Title game and a 0.2% chance to win the Super Bowl.

That has to sting Atlanta fans considering the hype this offseason.

4 games...

What was the % for NYG in 07/11 and Saints in 09? Anything can happen. The Browns based on record have a higher % I bet but does anyone think the Browns have a better chance than GB, SF, ATL, etc?

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4 games...

What was the % for NYG in 07/11 and Saints in 09? Anything can happen. The Browns based on record have a higher % I bet but does anyone think the Browns have a better chance than GB, SF, ATL, etc?

At this same point in time in 09, the Saints were 4-0 and had destroyed teams by a combined score of 144 - 66. Hardly the same comparision.
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At this same point in time in 09, the Saints were 4-0 and had destroyed teams by a combined score of 144 - 66. Hardly the same comparision.

Way to miss the point. You are not in or out of the playoffs/title game/SB until you are. Saints were not the SB favorites after 4 games yet still won the SB.

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Your point never missed or flew over my head. The odds are a straight line statistical formula. Any team sitting at 1-3 vs. 4-0 would realize very slim odds. While I have no way to show it, I seriously doubt any team sitting at 4-0 in 2009 had the odds the Falcons are faced with in this thread.

The fact that a team could statisically recover from odds of 0.2% and make a SB appearance isn't lost on me. But 0.2% odds are a FAR difference from all of the early season predictions of a Falcon SB by the talking heads in the media.

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