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The Myth Of "more Is Better"


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There are still some on this board who get all amped up at the idea that we traded 5 picks for Julio. They claim that more picks are better and lead to "investment" into the "trenches" which leads to great results. So I took a gander at other teams that invested heavily in "the trenches" and made this post in another thread:

Do you know how absurdly difficult it is to build a great OL? I mean seriously.....

SF has the "best OL in the league" and for the better part of two and a half games they've looked awful running the ball and havent been that great at protecting Kaep either.

Our OL needs to be better, for sure, but people act like you can just go buy an OL at the store. Look at Pittsburgh's OL:

LT: Mike Adams (2nd round, 56 overall)

C: Maurkice Pouncey (1st round 18th overall)

RG: David DiCastro (1st round 24th overall)

RT: Marcus Gilbert (2nd round 63rd overall)

Net result: The worst offensive line in football.

Its not easy. Not for any team in the league. It seems like it is because the sample looking outward is so much larger than looking inward. When we look at "Atlanta Falcon 4th round picks since 2008" you get a sample of 5-7 guys. So when that group of 5-7 fails to yield an elite level talent, you look elsewhere. Over that same period of time there have been 170+ 4th round picks....so OF COURSE you find Geno Atkins among the pile. You find Richard Sherman in the 5th. Because you're picking the exceptions, not the rules.

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While looking up this info, I found some other interesting stuff I'd like to share

Starting with the 2009 Draft:

2009

Team With Most Picks: Dallas, New England 12 picks

Team With Fewest Picks: NY Jets 3 picks

2010

Most:Philadelphia Eagles 13

Least: Jets 4

2011

Most: Washington

Least: Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Jacksonville 5

2012

Most: Cleveland

Least: New Orleans

So looking at this, I guess I fail to see a strong correlation between number of picks and overall success. I mean, the Jets are pretty awful and have a poor talent base....but the Eagles and Cowboys arent in a way better situation despite all of their picks.

The Colts, Bears, Lions and Saints are all pretty talented teams....the Jags arent.

Are the Redskins really that talented? Their best player was acquired in a Julio-style move. Their next best player was a free agent signing. They've seen flashes from some draft picks and got a nice 6th rounder. But they've also struggled with mid-round picks and havent been able to find complementary receivers in the draft.

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All you need to do is look at TDs track record when it comes to drafting offensive and defensive linemen to know more picks would have not made a difference.

But this is true for everyone!! Pittsburgh has invested heavily, with no success. Green Bay has received little production from their two highly drafted OL. The Rams got very little from a Top 3 pick OL pick. Detroit, Chicago, Arizona...the list of teams with OL issues despite repeated investment is incredibly long.

Even the "success" stories like the 49ers aren't fool proof. Everyone points to them as the "build the lines!!" model, but their OL were drafted by a group sorta led by Mike Nolan (Joe Staley '07) and then by Scott McCloughlin (Iupati, Davis '10), who got fired before Harbaugh got there!

So its more than just throwin draft picks at somebody. Maybe our coaches have failed in developing our OL prospects, maybe our prospects havent been very good. But guess what? Most prospects arent very good.

Theres a reason quality OL players have 10+ year careers despite the physical toll the position takes.....because there simply arent many good ones.

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There are still some on this board who get all amped up at the idea that we traded 5 picks for Julio. They claim that more picks are better and lead to "investment" into the "trenches" which leads to great results. So I took a gander at other teams that invested heavily in "the trenches" and made this post in another thread:

Thank you for posting this. I'm so sick of "ohmahgah TD ignores the lines" ... no, he doesn't. Does he suck at evaluating talent? Possibly, but as you pointed out, apparently GB, Steelers, etc do too

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There are still some on this board who get all amped up at the idea that we traded 5 picks for Julio. They claim that more picks are better and lead to "investment" into the "trenches" which leads to great results. So I took a gander at other teams that invested heavily in "the trenches" and made this post in another thread:

Who said you have to draft every Olineman?

Dimi inherited a pretty dam good Oline with Weiner, Blalock, Mud, Dahl and Clabo. He then proceeded to fk it up by releasing guys and letting others walk.

It appears to me that he wouldn't know a good Olineman if one bit him in the as. Konz, SackMaker, Johnson, Holmes, Jackson, Hawley, Trueblood, Manu, Manley, Bruggerman, Romberg, Reynolds, etc. That's a bunch of average to sorry mofos bro.

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