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More Deep Passes--More Sacks


falcndave
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Despite some solid, well-founded, disagreement from several of you, I nailed my prediction of "More Runs--Fewer Screens" last week, so I'm going for two in a row with this one. Like last week's prediction, this is based purely on the matchups...not the history of either club.

Matt will throw the ball beyond 20 yards 4 times in this one. I believe they will call 5-7 such plays, but a few are sure to be foiled by pass rush.

I believe the first deep throw will come in the 1st or 2nd offensive possession. Maybe as soon as the 2nd play of the game. I think as soon as we get to 2nd and 5 or less, we are going to push the ball off play action. I also believe that Matt will take more sacks than last week, here are my reasons.

1) We had success running last week. The Pats will respect the run in medium yardage situations.

2) The Patriots play man coverage and often press receivers. This sets them up for double moves.

3) The only way the Falcons are going to be able to consistently give Ryan time for a double move pattern to develop is off of play action.

4) They are solid on the defensive front, but not as aggressive at getting up field as Miami. For that reason, we are going to be tempted to allow our tackles to block without help more often this week. This, as well as the deeper patterns, will lead to more sacks.

We need to get to 2nd and 3rd and short. If we can make them respect the play-action, Matt can light them up. If we can't they are going to be jumping our short routes with regularity.

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the deep pass has nothing to do with the line, it may have more to do with Julio & Roddy not being at full speed. if we wanted to go deep we could, we got Drew Davis we could send deep & Coffman can run a good 20-25 yard seem route but we tend to be scared of taking those risks. just like Quizz needed to trust his instincts to become a more effective runner, Ryan needs to trust his and not be so quick to set his feet. I think Ryan will connect on a few deep shots early also which is gonna open up the run game. this should be our best offensive game this year, and the defense should be able to hold on long enough to squeak out a win

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the deep pass has nothing to do with the line, it may have more to do with Julio & Roddy not being at full speed. if we wanted to go deep we could, we got Drew Davis we could send deep & Coffman can run a good 20-25 yard seem route but we tend to be scared of taking those risks. just like Quizz needed to trust his instincts to become a more effective runner, Ryan needs to trust his and not be so quick to set his feet. I think Ryan will connect on a few deep shots early also which is gonna open up the run game. this should be our best offensive game this year, and the defense should be able to hold on long enough to squeak out a win

Wrong. Our offensive game plan has clearly been altered to adjust to a weak line.

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Wrong. Our offensive game plan has clearly been altered to adjust to a weak line.

I agree. Ryan quickly planting his feet and unloading...almost always in 3 seconds or less...is by design. We will try to modify that design this week and get back to using our weapons. The OL has had a few reps now. They are going to asked to 'swim' some in this one.

The quick throws to planned targets won't work against the Pats base coverage. There is a real chance of a pick 6 if we go with short "spot" passes against their coverage scheme. What we did last week doesn't match our opponent this week.

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Wrong. Our offensive game plan has clearly been altered to adjust to a weak line.

go back and look at some of throws Ryan made against the Dolphins. he was throwing off his back foot & short arming. looked like he was bracing for hits that never came, and then he started getting a little too comfortable and setting his feet too quick, then the hits started coming. if we wanted to go deep we could. it's an attitude thing. it's cool to protect these guys but every now & then you gotta challenge them and make them grow up & be tough. you gotta get in the huddle and say 'we're going deep, you better punch your guy in the mouth!' we can't tell our guys 'I'm gonna hold your hand and coddle you because I don't believe in you' it's hard to develop an edge getting treated like that. even with the line still struggling, I think we can find that balance needed to make these guys step up but it can't be when we're put in obvious passing situations and are forced to throw

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Wrong. Our offensive game plan has clearly been altered to adjust to a weak line.

Agreed. Ryan is throwing a ton of passes in less than 2 seconds, on 3 step drops. He's smart enough to know where the defense is dictating the coverage, so he quickly finds his first read open and throws the ball there. Rarely has he taken a 5 or 7 step drop in the past two weeks, or had time to progress beyond his second read. We pretty much eliminated the deep ball after the Saints game, because it was so apparent the offensive line couldn't hold up.

On the flip side, as well as we were running the ball last week, Koetter should've used that as an opportunity to dial up some deep passes, especially off of play action. It's ridiculous we didn't try to throw a couple to Julio, because he was dominating Carroll the entire game.

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Alex Smith has the lowest deep attempts in the league at 4. Ryan has 5.

The Falcons are apparently allergic to deep passing.

Yet there he is with 1 fewer 20+ yard and 1 more 40+ yard plays than your "bomb it out" boy.

And the best part? Of Flacco's 11 such plays, 8 of them have been a result of YAC.

Keep trying though. I'm sure you'll win someday. But it probably won't be the day where Ryan is 3rd in DVOA and Flacco is 20th (aka today)

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Yet there he is with 1 fewer 20+ yard and 1 more 40+ yard plays than your "bomb it out" boy.

And the best part? Of Flacco's 11 such plays, 8 of them have been a result of YAC.

Keep trying though. I'm sure you'll win someday. But it probably won't be the day where Ryan is 3rd in DVOA and Flacco is 20th (aka today)

5 deep attempts with a talent like Julio is ABSURD. Admit it. You are wasting part of his talents.

DVOA loves checkdown QBs. They don't get sacked because all they throw are short little girl passes, like Alex Smith and Matt Ryan. DVOA further loves them because they have high completion %'s because of the aforementioned lame short passes. Those passes aren't risky. As such they don't result in many turnovers.

Matt Ryan having an aDOT near Alex Smith is laughable. You have to see this. But you surely won't admit it.

Have fun staring 1-3 in the face. Looks like that DVOA projection of the Falcons missing the playoffs might have been on point huh? Live by the DVOA, die by the DVOA.

Edited by bt12483
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5 deep attempts with a talent like Julio is ABSURD. Admit it.

DVOA loves checkdown QBs. They don't get sacked because all they throw are little girl passes, like Alex Smith and Matt Ryan. DVOA further loves them because they have high completion %'s because of the aforementioned lame short passes.

Matt Ryan having an aDOT near Alex Smith is laughable. You have to see this. But you surely won't admit it.

Have fun staring 1-3 in the face. Looks like that DVOA projection of the Falcons missing the playoffs might have been on point huh?

"DVOA loves QBs who complete a higher % of their passes, throw more TDs, turn the ball over less and average more yards per attempt" You're right. It does.

As for deep attempts with Julio, no, it's not absurd. Given the context (theres that word again) of the season so far, it makes a lot of sense.

1) The lack of a full strength Roddy/up to speed Gonzo has led to even more attention being paid to Julio

2) Julio is arguably the most diverse, multifaceted WR in the game. He's just as capable of beating a team deep than he is taking a bubble screen 40+ yards. He possesses elite top end speed and elite strength and body control. Why would they turn such a talent into a one trick pony?

3) The protection issues have clearly limited the downfield game....and Matt has rolled with it and played very well.

As for the playoffs, we're less than 20% into the season. We're probably not winning the division, but a WC is very much a realistic possibility. If I were you, I'd be more concerned with the fact that your team has looked like dog **** for the majority of the season. Your $20 million a year QB is below average in pretty much every conceivable measure. There isn't a game on your schedule where you figure to be more than a marginal favorite. Your offense has negative expected points for the season and is playing at a bottom 1/3 clip. Your defense hasnt played much better.

You've got your own troubles, sunshine. I'd suggest focusing on those for the time being.

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Wrong. Our offensive game plan has clearly been altered to adjust to a weak line.

They maintained the scheme in the first two weeks despite this then it changed Week 3 when Julio was noticeably slower. I know people on here like to sweep injuries under the rug but to deny that the scheme changed due to Roddy and now Julio being hobbled is pure and utter delusion.

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"DVOA loves QBs who complete a higher % of their passes, throw more TDs, turn the ball over less and average more yards per attempt" You're right. It does.

Totally, because throwing 5.5 yard passes on average is so difficult. Just ask Alex Smith.
As for deep attempts with Julio, no, it's not absurd. Given the context (theres that word again) of the season so far, it makes a lot of sense.

1) The lack of a full strength Roddy/up to speed Gonzo has led to even more attention being paid to Julio

2) Julio is arguably the most diverse, multifaceted WR in the game. He's just as capable of beating a team deep than he is taking a bubble screen 40+ yards. He possesses elite top end speed and elite strength and body control. Why would they turn such a talent into a one trick pony?

3) The protection issues have clearly limited the downfield game....and Matt has rolled with it and played very well.

It's not about turning him into a 1 trick pony. It about not using him hardly at all as a deep threat. It is almost as if the OC has no faith in the QB to throw deep. Weird.
As for the playoffs, we're less than 20% into the season. We're probably not winning the division, but a WC is very much a realistic possibility. If I were you, I'd be more concerned with the fact that your team has looked like dog **** for the majority of the season. Your $20 million a year QB is below average in pretty much every conceivable measure. There isn't a game on your schedule where you figure to be more than a marginal favorite. Your offense has negative expected points for the season and is playing at a bottom 1/3 clip. Your defense hasnt played much better.

You've got your own troubles, sunshine. I'd suggest focusing on those for the time being.

Yet you are 1-2, about to maybe be 1-3 after Bill, Brady and Gronk have their way.

You have way more to worry about darling. Especially if your 37 year old $7M safety valve TE can't shake the cobwebs off his bones, your WR doesn't actually heal since they keep trotting him out to keep his record running, and your QB chooses to barely throw a pass over 10 yards. Oh and the awesome 30 yr old RB who was supposed to be another crutch for your elite QB can actually stay healthy. I mean, who would have thought a 30 year old RB with tons of mileage would get hurt? I guess not Dimitroff.

I wonder if a single one of your OL high draft picks will ever be worth their draft status?

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They maintained the scheme in the first two weeks despite this then it changed Week 3 when Julio was noticeably slower. I know people on here like to sweep injuries under the rug but to deny that the scheme changed due to Roddy and now Julio being hobbled is pure and utter delusion.

with that same weak line we ran a combined 30 times the first two games, we ran 30 times alone against Miami. a more balanced attack will lead to better passing cause teams ain't just pinning their ears back and attacking our 'weak' line. if anything I'm a little impressed the line hasn't got Ryan killed.

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Totally, because throwing 5.5 yard passes on average is so difficult. Just ask Alex Smith.

It's not about turning him into a 1 trick pony. It about not using him hardly at all as a deep threat. It is almost as if the OC has no faith in the QB to throw deep. Weird.

Yet you are 1-2, about to maybe be 1-3 after Bill, Brady and Gronk have their way.

You have way more to worry about darling. Especially if your 37 year old $7M safety valve TE can't shake the cobwebs off his bones, your WR doesn't actually heal since they keep trotting him out to keep his record running, and your QB chooses to barely throw a pass over 10 yards. Oh and the awesome 30 yr old RB who was supposed to be another crutch for your elite QB can actually stay healthy. I mean, who would have thought a 30 year old RB with tons of mileage would get hurt? I guess not Dimitroff.

I wonder if a single one of your OL high draft picks will ever be worth their draft status?

Your lack of knowledge and information is startling. I can't wait until you lose to the Bills this week....its going to be fantastic.

And yeah, I'm sure our team is super concerned about our QB's abilities. They're horrified that all he can do is complete 70% of his passes. They're really disappointed that he averages more yards per completion and per attempt than your boyfriend. They really wish they had a guy who struggles to complete 60% and can't seem to get the ball downfield accurately this year....that way they could maximize the number of 6 yards per attempt passers on the roster. If only they had a guy who could give them 150 fewer yards and 3 fewer TDs on the same number of attempts. A guy that could maximize the team's chances to end a drive in a punt. ESPECIALLY if that guy could create 3 and out situations at a higher rate.

Joe Flacco is the picture of efficiency and effectiveness.

How's your workhorse back doing? Oh, your running game is 28 in the league? Hmm.

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How's your workhorse back doing? Oh, your running game is 28 in the league? Hmm.

Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens have proven to be able to overcome injuries and adversity. We just beat a solid HOU team without Ray Rice, and in light of McKinnie and Oher being the 3rd and 5th worst rated tackles in the league. Without Jacoby Jones. With a starting TE (34 yrs old) and WR (37 years old) that have been on the team for 5-6 weeks. With a UDFA at WR2.

Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens are a balanced team. Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens are built to survive injuries, with quality depth (provided in part by not giving up 5 picks for 1 player).

This season is the first time the Falcons have truly been tested by injury, and the results so far are not good. If only Julio could also play OL and RB....

Overall, the Falcons looks soft. And still apparently can't score in the second half, which is weird considering you have God at QB and Jesus at WR.

If the Falcons lose to NE, I really don't see how they will "rise up", especially if those Saints keep marching in the NFCS.

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I hate to interupt the hijack attempt, but what do you think of the prediction and reasons. More this week? Yes or no? Why or why not?

I say no more.

Because the Falcons with Ryan have a history of not passing deep. Nothing to me shows any change in this philosophy.

Coach Bill likes to remove the other team's best player. I have seen him do it many times to Ray Rice, leaving Torrey Smith to gain.

In this case, your best player is Julio Jones. Expect Talib to shadow him. In addition to other little tricks Coach Bill will use to shutdown Julio.

If Coach Bill is successful in shutting down Julio, not only will there be few deep attempts, but the Falcons will also likely lose.

Because outside of Julio's YAC, nothing on the Falcons offense is that scary.

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go back and look at some of throws Ryan made against the Dolphins. he was throwing off his back foot & short arming. looked like he was bracing for hits that never came, and then he started getting a little too comfortable and setting his feet too quick, then the hits started coming. if we wanted to go deep we could. it's an attitude thing. it's cool to protect these guys but every now & then you gotta challenge them and make them grow up & be tough. you gotta get in the huddle and say 'we're going deep, you better punch your guy in the mouth!' we can't tell our guys 'I'm gonna hold your hand and coddle you because I don't believe in you' it's hard to develop an edge getting treated like that. even with the line still struggling, I think we can find that balance needed to make these guys step up but it can't be when we're put in obvious passing situations and are forced to throw

One Moron to another, Matt Ryan cringed looking at the tape of himself

after that one. He will correct it.

If he hangs some air under the deeper passes he can throw sooner. They

will be hollering noodle arm but that is the only way to complete a high %

on the deep throws.

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I say no more.

Because the Falcons with Ryan have a history of not passing deep. Nothing to me shows any change in this philosophy.

Coach Bill likes to remove the other team's best player. I have seen him do it many times to Ray Rice, leaving Torrey Smith to gain.

In this case, your best player is Julio Jones. Expect Talib to shadow him. In addition to other little tricks Coach Bill will use to shutdown Julio.

If Coach Bill is successful in shutting down Julio, not only will there be few deep attempts, but the Falcons will also likely lose.

Because outside of Julio's YAC, nothing on the Falcons offense is that scary.

I think it is problematic to say "because he hasn't, he won't." He did against Seattle. He did against SF. Those teams like to man up their corners from time-to-time like the Pats will. The past two weeks, our opponents didn't play a lot of tight man coverage, and their DLs were superior to our OL in every way. Those matchups dictated a lot of quick throws. NE DL is good, but not as good as either of our last two opponents. Also, neither of our last two opponents had any reason to honor the play fake. This week, the Pats will have to.

This is where our coaches are better and "help us win" more than anyone gives them credit for. Our approach is unique to the opponent and individual match ups. That is why it was easy to call that we would run more and screen less last week. That is why it is easy to see that we will go deep, and risk sacks, more often this week.

Our coaching staff is much less beholden to a singular approach than most folks give them credit for. It is fair to question their in-game adjustments. However, no one should question the way the analyze and plan for an opponent. There is a reason we always have a 10+ point lead to give up. Our coaches know how to game plan based on match ups.

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Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens have proven to be able to overcome injuries and adversity. We just beat a solid HOU team without Ray Rice, and in light of McKinnie and Oher being the 3rd and 5th worst rated tackles in the league. Without Jacoby Jones. With a starting TE (34 yrs old) and WR (37 years old) that have been on the team for 5-6 weeks. With a UDFA at WR2.

Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens are a balanced team. Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens are built to survive injuries, with quality depth (provided in part by not giving up 5 picks for 1 player).

This season is the first time the Falcons have truly been tested by injury, and the results so far are not good. If only Julio could also play OL and RB....

Overall, the Falcons looks soft. And still apparently can't score in the second half, which is weird considering you have God at QB and Jesus at WR.

If the Falcons lose to NE, I really don't see how they will "rise up", especially if those Saints keep marching in the NFCS.

LOL @ Balance.

Yes, having an average passing attack and a poor rushing attack is balance.

As for Houston.....I'm not quite so sure they're "solid" at all. They're 20th in the league in DVOA....they let Phillip Rivers time machine back to 2008.

They beat an average Titans team.

You boys got absolutely curb stomped by Denver (7 TDs!!! And lets not forget the pick-six Flacco threw.)

You barely beat a ****** Browns team.

Your offense was awful against a Houston team that has let Tennessee and San Diego beat them up.

Meanwhile, we lost at the goalline to a perennial contender on the road.

Then we lost a last second lead to an up and coming team, on the road.

Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens have proven to be able to overcome injuries and adversity. We just beat a solid HOU team without Ray Rice, and in light of McKinnie and Oher being the 3rd and 5th worst rated tackles in the league. Without Jacoby Jones. With a starting TE (34 yrs old) and WR (37 years old) that have been on the team for 5-6 weeks. With a UDFA at WR2.

Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens are a balanced team. Unlike the Falcons, the Ravens are built to survive injuries, with quality depth (provided in part by not giving up 5 picks for 1 player).

This season is the first time the Falcons have truly been tested by injury, and the results so far are not good. If only Julio could also play OL and RB....

Overall, the Falcons looks soft. And still apparently can't score in the second half, which is weird considering you have God at QB and Jesus at WR.

If the Falcons lose to NE, I really don't see how they will "rise up", especially if those Saints keep marching in the NFCS.

And you guys can't score in the first half.....so there! (see how ******* nonsensical that is?)

As for Julio playing RB....why should he? Our running game has performed at a top 6 level. Our passing game Top 5. And thats with the OL issues and injuries. Where are the Ravens? oh.....28 and 16? Well then.

At least your defense is way better than ours, right? Oh. Its not? Well then....

I wonder what the difference is.....OH, I see. Its taking two undefeated teams down to the wire rather than playing a ****** Cleveland team (and barely mustering a fight) and then beating an average (or worse) Houston team!

I'm not sure how the Falcons look "soft" compared to a Ravens team that simply isnt very good. Nothing says "tough smash mouth football" like being one of the worst running teams in the league. But at least they're balanced, with their average passing offense and atrocious run offense. Way more balanced than the Falcons.

We'll see you at the end of the line, sweetie. I expect that you'll be crying some other ******** when you struggle to a 7 win season and the "Whats wrong with Flacco" articles start in about a month...

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