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Td Is The Worst Talent Evaluator And Drafter In Nfl From A Statistical Perspective (Sarcasm)


MSalmon
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Tell you what since he's been so bad lets statistically see how bad he was--or how good TD has been. I'm excluding the 13 draft, so here are the 08-12 drafts:

In 08 TD drafted 11 players; 9 of 11 made team

--4 were starters (Ryan, baker, lofton and Decoud)

--4 were contributors ( Chevys Jackson (for 2 yrs), HD83, Robert James & Biermann)

--James is still on team but injuries have hampered him

--3 Flops ( Zinger, Brown & Fontenot)

--all 3 flops were 6th and 7th rounders

So in 08 we went 11-5 ; so 72% of our draft picks made team and contributed; 36% started

In 09 7 of 8 draft picks made team

--2 starters (Reynolds (last 2 years) and Moore)

--5 contributors (Jerry, Owens, sidbury,Adkins & Walker)

-- 1 didn't make team but in league (Middleton)

-- in 09 we went 9-7; 100% of his picks are in league, 87.5% contributed; 25% started but keep in mind most of players drafted were in heavily rotated postions

-in 2010 7 of 7 drafted made the team

--3 were starters (Spoon, Peters and mike Johnson will be)

-- 3 more were contributors (Hawley, Schillinger, Franks)

--1 made Team but flopped (Meir a 5thround pick)

--In 2010 we went 13-3 made playoffs; 100 % of our picks made roster all in league: 43% are starters and 85% were contributors--technically Meir contributed for a 100%

In 2011 6 of 6 made team (1 on PS)

--3 starters (Julio, Bosher and Dent)

--2 contributors (Rodgers & Matthews)

--1 made PS and was signed (Andrew Jackson)

--in 2011 we went 10-6 and made playoffs; 83% made active roster; 50% started and 83% contributed

In 2012 6 of 6 drafted made team

--1 started (Konz)

--4 contributors (Massaqui, Mitchell, Robertson & Holmes was a key backup)

--1 went to IR (Ewing)

--in 2012 we went 13-3, won our division and won first playoff game; 100% of picks made roster; 17% started; and 83% contributed

Now for totals:

Combined win loss record under TD is 56-24 in regular season; between 08-12 he drafted 38 players ; 13 are starters 31 are/ were contributors ; so 34% of his picks are starters and 82% of his picks either have been or are contributors. Considering that most positions are heavily rotated the number of contributors is far more important than the % of starters

Also consider we have a new DC, so some players had to be replaced due to lack of fit (lofton comes to mind)

Of the 6 outright flops, ( either out of nfl or no stats) here is rounds they were drafted in:

--one was a 5th ( Meir)

--one was a 6th (thomas Brown)

--4 were 7th rounders (Fontenot, Middleton, Zinger and Andrew Jackson

---note that Middleton has been a good cb for jags for 5 years and Javkson is on bills roster so 32 of TD's 38 picks were/are NFL players which translates to 84% of TD's picks are good enough to play in the NFL--but yet he can't evaluate talent(sarcasm)

Doesn't look too terrible to me. So to all complaining about TD abd his drafting i challenge you to perform the same analysis on another team --to include their win-loss record --to compare our numbers to theirs or STFU about how bad TD is at drafting :)

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Haters need to GTFOI .

Good post.

Thank you, sir. I'm so sick of FFS70's rants about how bad our drafts have been. He inspired me to analytically look at TDs drafts.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised how spot on he's been. 32 of 38 players in NFL is pretty impressive--particularly when 30 of those Falcobs contributed for the Falcons. Perhaps most impressive the totl washouts were late rounders

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The Patriots and the Ravens didn't become those teams over night. They have a good 6-9 year head start on TD with their current GMs. Naming 2 teams that might have had a better record drafting than we do doesn't help the cause to undermine the GM. I don't have an issue having the potentially 3rd best GM in the league.

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Go for it-- I'm tired lol

I get Ozzie is close to or better than TS. Belichiks is atrocious

I don't have the patience for this stuff. Lol. I just let them believe what they want and watch them waver from their prognostications once we win a SB.

Or they will prolly put on that "I wanted a SB all along. So until I got that I deserved to complain" crap

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Thanks for the interesting post. In my opinion its not about drafting guys that start, its the quality of the starters. What I mean by that is if you are bad at a position, a mediocre draftee will start just by default. I think DT is a decent but not great drafter. If you think about it, DT has had 5 years to address a couple of glaring problems - OL and pass rush. He is only now really getting a secondary together which was a problem for awhile as well. Like I said, good post, but I don't think I can really buy into him being that good at drafting when we've had several years of the same problems.

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The Patriots and the Ravens didn't become those teams over night. They have a good 6-9 year head start on TD with their current GMs. Naming 2 teams that might have had a better record drafting than we do doesn't help the cause to undermine the GM. I don't have an issue having the potentially 3rd best GM in the league.

I wasn't saying that to say the Patriots were better. I was saying that to show how they may not be better, slightly better, or worst. As someone said earlier, the Patriots could be atrocious.

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Thank you, sir. I'm so sick of FFS70's rants about how bad our drafts have been. He inspired me to analytically look at TDs drafts.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised how spot on he's been. 32 of 38 players in NFL is pretty impressive--particularly when 30 of those Falcobs contributed for the Falcons. Perhaps most impressive the totl washouts were late rounders

What happened to that other thread? Did Fraud delete another one?

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Thanks for the interesting post. In my opinion its not about drafting guys that start, its the quality of the starters. What I mean by that is if you are bad at a position, a mediocre draftee will start just by default. I think DT is a decent but not great drafter. If you think about it, DT has had 5 years to address a couple of glaring problems - OL and pass rush. He is only now really getting a secondary together which was a problem for awhile as well. Like I said, good post, but I don't think I can really buy into him being that good at drafting when we've had several years of the same problems.

Well he has had 5 years to get a WHOLE team actually. We only had ONE position locked up and that was WR#1. WE stuck with what we had at Center, LG, and RT but it wasn't like these positions were full of probowlers.

He had way more than just OL and DL to worry about. Its quite amazing to come from the depths of the NFL to SB contender in just 2 years. You have to hit on the draft to do that.

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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Thanks for the interesting post. In my opinion its not about drafting guys that start, its the quality of the starters. What I mean by that is if you are bad at a position, a mediocre draftee will start just by default. I think DT is a decent but not great drafter. If you think about it, DT has had 5 years to address a couple of glaring problems - OL and pass rush. He is only now really getting a secondary together which was a problem for awhile as well. Like I said, good post, but I don't think I can really buy into him being that good at drafting when we've had several years of the same problems.

I liken him to building the way Indy did when Peyton got there. They went offense the first few years to give Peyton what he needed THEN they went defense and eventually won a SB. You have to build one side of the ball first then get the other. The ravens built defense first. The bucs the same. Philly built defense first the offense starting with McNab. The new 49ers built defense first thx to Nolan. I think he's just following a blueprint of other successful SB contenders. Pick that one player and build around him first. Matt Ryan was that player. I dont think he ignored holes. I think he was just focusing on giving Matt his pieces. The offense is super strong now and he went defense hard this year and I think he will again next year.

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Thanks for the interesting post. In my opinion its not about drafting guys that start, its the quality of the starters. What I mean by that is if you are bad at a position, a mediocre draftee will start just by default. I think DT is a decent but not great drafter. If you think about it, DT has had 5 years to address a couple of glaring problems - OL and pass rush. He is only now really getting a secondary together which was a problem for awhile as well. Like I said, good post, but I don't think I can really buy into him being that good at drafting when we've had several years of the same problems.

I agree with your assessment to a point, but five years of winning records and 4 playoff appearances while predominately rebuilding through the draft is pretty superb in my book.

The two positions you mention are interesting because depending on your perspective you can say our OL has been good enough to keep Matt upright and constantly improving towards elite QB status and good enough that Michael Turner had a great run for 4 out his 5 years as a running back--one of the best statistical run in a long while. One might also say that Turners decline due to age and injuries was the problem not the OL

The DL is slightly different. Obviously they were good enough to contribute to a great won-loss record, but I can't in all honesty say they are great--it's hard to even say they're good. I see the DL as adequate. It'll be interesting to see how the DL is after this years draft class contributes

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And let's not forget Middleton was actually one of the solid nickels in the league as a rookie and second year player with the Jags before struggling with injuries. That was the coaches who didn't keep him, not TD. TD didn't pick Owens over Middleton for the final roster.

People put everything on TD and don't factor in the coaches after they receive this talent.

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And let's not forget Middleton was actually one of the solid nickels in the league as a rookie and second year player with the Jags before struggling with injuries. That was the coaches who didn't keep him, not TD. TD didn't pick Owens over Middleton for the final roster.

People put everything on TD and don't factor in the coaches after they receive this talent.

Yes he has become very good. I hated when we lost him

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I liken him to building the way Indy did when Peyton got there. They went offense the first few years to give Peyton what he needed THEN they went defense and eventually won a SB. You have to build one side of the ball first then get the other. The ravens built defense first. The bucs the same. Philly built defense first the offense starting with McNab. The new 49ers built defense first thx to Nolan. I think he's just following a blueprint of other successful SB contenders. Pick that one player and build around him first. Matt Ryan was that player. I dont think he ignored holes. I think he was just focusing on giving Matt his pieces. The offense is super strong now and he went defense hard this year and I think he will again next year.

Good post/reply.

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Yes he has become very good. I hated when we lost him

That's my thing. They are made about Owens sucking and blaming TD, yet it was the coaches who picked Owens over Middleton, not TD. We had a very capable nickel not make the roster. But I don't bother arguing with those who don't like TD. It's the dumbest thing. He's built a top 5 roster and they aren't happy because he overlooked some good players in the process.
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That's my thing. They are made about Owens sucking and blaming TD, yet it was the coaches who picked Owens over Middleton, not TD. We had a very capable nickel not make the roster. But I don't bother arguing with those who don't like TD. It's the dumbest thing. He's built a top 5 roster and they aren't happy because he overlooked some good players in the process.

Agree. I don't know how folks can be anything but happy with this franchise. I've been a fan since 78 or so, and this is easily the best 5 years I've ever had as a fan.

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All I know is, some of the most respected people in the industry acknowledge TD as one of the best in the biz. A msg board troll won't taint that. It's sad we have a top 5 QB and top 5 GM and some want to blow it up because of no SB in 5 years.

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