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Efficiency Ratios - Ranking The Top Qbs In The Nfl


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As those who have made it through elementary likely know, the use of absolute numbers for comparison purposes is as futile as giving Thomas Dimitroff a spare basket of third to seventh round draftpicks on draft day. The utilization of multiples or ratios is crucial when comparing relative performance. Ratios normalize statistics and allow for the analysis of cross-sectional data.

Using 2012 data of qualified NFL QBs, the following effiency ratios can be created. Efficiency ratios depict how effective quarterbacks are at scoring, limiting turnovers, and moving the ball down the field. Adjusted efficiency ratios for QBs, which also factor in rushing attempts, can be considered to be near unbaised estimators for QB ranking purposes.

Name - ADJ TD/A (adjusted touchdown/attempts ratio; adjusted for rushes and favors passers)

Aaron Rodgers - 6.8%

Drew Brees - 6.4%

Russell Wilson - 6.2%

Peyton Manning - 6.1%

Tom Brady - 5.8%

Ben Roethlisberger - 5.5%

Andy Dalton - 5.4%

Robert Griffin III - 5.3%

Matt Ryan - 5.1%

Philip Rivers - 4.7%

Name - ADJ TO/A(adjusted turnovers/attempts ratio; adjusted for rushes and favors rushers)

Tom Brady - 1.2%

Robert Griffin III - 1.4%

Aaron Rodgers - 2.0%

Matt Schaub - 2.1%

Peyton Manning - 2.1%

Ben Roethlisberger - 2.3%

Sam Bradford - 2.4%

Cam Newton - 2.5%

Matt Ryan - 2.5%

Joe Flacco - 2.5%

Name - ADJ Y/A (adjusted yards/attempts ratio; adjusted for rushes and favors passers)

Robert Griffin III - 7.8

Peyton Manning - 7.7

Drew Brees - 7.6

Cam Newton - 7.5

Aaron Rodgers - 7.5

Matt Ryan - 7.5

Russell Wilson - 7.4

Tom Brady - 7.4

Tony Romo - 7.3

Eli Manning - 7.2

Equal Weighted Ranking

Aaron Rodgers

Peyton Manning (t)

Robert Griffin III (t)

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Russell Wilson

Ben Roethlisberger (t)

Matt Ryan (t)

Cam Newton

Eli Manning

Matt Schaub

Joe Flacco

70-20-10 Ranking (weighted ranking factoring in importance of statistic)

Aaron Rodgers

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Russell Wilson

Robert Griffin III

Ben Roethlisberger

Matt Ryan

Eli Manning

Andy Dalton

As one can see from the analysis above. Ryan is the 8th ranked QB in the league when using adjusted efficiency ratios and taking into account the importance of each statistic. Adjusted efficiency ratios, while less biased, still favor passing QBs over rushing QBs. With that said though, players with mobility such as Wilson and RGIII have managed to outrank some of the top passing QBs in the league, making their accomplishments in 2012 even more remarkable.

Edited by Mr. Right
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Flacco fans only have one crutch to stand on. Must be a **** of a way to walk down the street. But this point has been definitively confirmed in the other thread and I dont think we need 2 threads full of the exact same stuff.

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QB rating is a rate based stat.

A lot of stats are rate based. You have to combine rate stats and volume stats to get an accurate picture. (A RB who runs for 5 yards per carry but only gets 500 yards a year isn't as valuable as a RB who runs for 5 yards per carry and gets 2000 yards per year.)

Ryan ranks 4th-8th in most.

The ranking I care about most is next year's, and next year's postseason performance.

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Flacco fans only have one crutch to stand on. Must be a **** of a way to walk down the street. But this point has been definitively confirmed in the other thread and I dont think we need 2 threads full of the exact same stuff.

would you rather lean on statistical "efficiencies" or real world success?
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Those stats would mean a whole lot more if someone would explain how the adjustments were made, and who made them.

Adjustments mean including rushing attempts, TDs, yards, and fumbles into the calculations.

Funny, I also ranked Ryan 8th on my top 10 list. Coincidence? Right, do your stats also include postseason or no?

No post-season.

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QB rating is a rate based stat.

A lot of stats are rate based. You have to combine rate stats and volume stats to get an accurate picture. (A RB who runs for 5 yards per carry but only gets 500 yards a year isn't as valuable as a RB who runs for 5 yards per carry and gets 2000 yards per year.)

Ryan ranks 4th-8th in most.

The ranking I care about most is next year's, and next year's postseason performance.

Volume is included in my analysis as I only looked at qualified leaders. There were no QBs that went 1 Att for 30 Yards for 1 TD

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So you're admitting Ryan is a top-10 (in fact top-8) QB?

Ok?

Mr. Right you have let me down. Find stats that Ryan is 32nd in like the good ol days please sad.png

This analysis only looked at 2012 stats, which frankly was an anomaly for Ryan. Ryan will likely regress this coming year - new contract - what else is there to play for? New o-line, good luck getting into a rhythem especially with his two left feet. Once TG and White leave, he is bound to regress furthre.

Edited by Mr. Right
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