More Accurate Draft Pick Value Chart

[Francis York Morgan]

Thought most of you would at least be interested in this. It's more recent, even though it isn't "new."

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

[<~MEAT GOAT~>]

That's a big fail of a value chart. If ever there was a time when high draft picks were more valuable, it's now. The rookie wage scale has allowed for these guys To be taken with minimal financial risk. That fact alone increases the value of early picks. It doesn't set a franchise back if they miss on these top picks anymore, where as it used to kill you to miss on a top 10 guy. I don't know how that guy formulated the chart, and in fact, I don't care because its wrong. The old chart is way closer to the actual values than what this guy came up with. The guy might understand numbers, but he doesn't understand football obviously.

[<~MEAT GOAT~>]

Title of topic should be numbers guy tries to create a more accurate draft pick values chart and fails.

So I did read a little, one of the key phrases that stood outcome was, " for some reason early picks were vastly overvalued as compared to mid round picks". This statement shows me that the guy is clueless about football. He doesn't understand that the first few picks in a draft can be a guy who might only come around once every ten years. There is no arbitrary number that can be used to account for that

[Francis York Morgan]

I don't think you understand what I mean by more accurate. I don't mean accurate in terms of what a team usually gets for their draft picks - I mean accurate in terms of how much a draft pick eventually does turn out to be worth.

[PermaGrin]

1st and 2nd round picks are worth at least twice what they were before the rookie wage scale.

[takeitdown]

Interesting read. Chase Stuart has a bit better one, I think.

Basically, the old chart is actually pretty accurate, if you lop off the first 5 picks...those are just extraordinarily overpriced.

According to Jimmy's old chart, you could have SIX early 2nd round draft choices for the price of the first overall pick. Obviously, taking the Falcons, it'd be way more valuable to be able to pick up a DE, DT, RG, TE, LB, CB in the early 2nd round, than whoever is the top pick this year.

We could essentially remake the team with youth. So, the top picks are way overvalued (only making any sense for franchise QBs). But most of the other analyses end up being similar to the 90's model excluding those top 10 picks...which is interesting.