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First Round Mock


Kayoh
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Because I'm in the mood and why not.

1. Kansas City selects Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

Let's be honest with ourselves here...Andy Reid needs a QB to groom. They don't need a LT, they have Branden Albert, and they should prioritize keeping him around in Free Agency, as well as Eric Winston on the strong side. They don't need a pass rusher, they have Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. That basically brings it down to either Star Lotulelei or Geno, and Star Lotulelei makes no sense for KC and they need to work with the guys they have like Tyson Jackson ans Dontari Poe. Andy Reid gets his QB and we can all move on from the Cassel/Quinn era.

2. Jacksonville selects Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

Yeah, Jacksonville picks another DLineman in the first round, so what? They have Jason Babin as an outside rusher now and Terrance Knighton is a free agent after this season. They need some help on the inside to do something with their anemic pass rush, and they clearly have enough tools on offense to be successful with Blackmon, Shorts, Robinson, Marcedes Lewis and MJD, all they really need is a little OL help, which they can get in the 2nd/3rd round, and for Blaine Gabbert to step up in his 3rd year.

3. Oakland selects Bjeorn Werner, DE, Florida State

Oakland's pass rush wasn't quite as anemic as Jacksonville's was this season, but that's because they had interior production. Oakland is losing both Desmond Bryant and Richard Seymour to free agency, and their DEs are much better run stoppers than they are pass rushers. Werner adds not only a great pass rush but also versatility to an Oakland defense in desperate need for some kind of spark.

4. Philadelphia selects DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama

I never get it when I see people with Philly taking Joeckel in the first round. They just don't need it. Their Oline was bad this season, but was it all-time bad? No. Was it even the worst in the league? No. And it was only bad because 4/5ths of the starters got hurt early in the season. Evan Mathis is the best guard in the NFL. Jason Peters and Todd Herremans are a great pair of tackles. C Kelce looked all-pro before he got hurt. Maybe they need a RG or RT (Herremans can play either position), but neither of those positions are worth drafting at #4 overall. Their secondary has been terrible, though, and Asomugha is likely getting the boot, so they need a good RCB, and that's what Milliner provides

5. Detroit selects Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M

Joeckel is a Joe Thomas clone. Stonewall pass blocker, angry, aggressive run blocker. He comes in and instantly replaces Jeff Backus, who, while serviceable as a pass blocker, is one of the worst run blocking tackles in the NFL. From Backus to Joeckel, you don't lose anything in the pass game, and you gain a ton in the run game, which Stafford breaking the pass attempt record clearly proves is something that Detroit needs going into next season.

6. Cleveland selects Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

Jabaal Sheard has fallen off significantly as a pass rusher, and bringing in a guy like Moore to bookend him would give Sheard the opportunity to get back to his 2011 pass rush form. Frostee Rucker, on the other hand, is very replaceable at the RDE position on that DLine. Cleveland's pass rush was bottom 7 or 8 this season, so Moore is also filling a need.

7. Arizona selects Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

Arizona might have thought about an offensive lineman here, but Joeckel got picked already and they have a few guys that they want to give a chance. Levi Brown, who was injured during the entire 2012 season, finished his 2011 very strong, and should be back for 2013. Him at LT gets Arizona's biggest problem off the field: D'Anthony Batiste. On top of that, they've got Daryn Colledge at LG, might want to draft a RG to compete with Adam Snyder in the 2nd or 3rd round, and their C Lyle Sendlein showed promise before getting injured. They need OLine help, but a team running a 3-4 defense passing up on a guy like Jarvis Jones is absolute insanity at this point. Arizona's pass rush is more interior based with Dan Williams and Calais Campbell doing their jobs at NT and RDE, so adding Jones gives them an outside threat to play around with as a pass rusher.

8. Buffalo selects Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

Maronne comes to Buffalo and brings his QB with him. Out goes Fitzpatrick, in comes Nassib, who reminds me of a more athletic version of Philip Rivers, somewhat awkward delivery and all.

9. New York selects Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

Mingo is a monstrous pass rusher who can come in and instantly replace Calvin Pace. The Jets need a QB but don't see one here that they're willing to take and go with defense instead. With Rex Ryan still basically calling the shots as far as personnel goes, I'm sure he'll hop all over a guy with a name like "Mingo".

10. Tennessee selects Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Tennessee has a great pass rush, excellent offensive line, and enough highly drafted WRs to satisfy Matt Millen. They need a rangy coverage safety who can occasionally play nickel if necessary, and while Michael Griffin is inconsistent, Jordan Babineaux is just flat out bad. Perhaps Vaccaro and Griffin, both former Texas Longhorns, can find some chemistry that would allow Griffin to play like the good version of himself more often than he plays like the bad version of himself.

11. San Diego selects Jonathan Banks, CB, Miss St

As soon as people see this, they're going to jump on me for not following the crowd and putting Eric Fisher at this pick. The fact of the matter is, San Diego doesn't need a LT all that badly. Jared Gaither is an absolute STUD at LT and all they need is for him to get healthy. They can draft a better backup than Ryan Harris in later rounds, but finding a better NFL LT than Ryan Harris doesn't require you to take one with the 11th overall pick in the NFL draft. San Diego's starting CBs are Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer. They are both pretty awful and I'm confident that Mike McCoy will get Philip Rivers & San Diego's offense clicking, so what they REALLY need is for their defense to not be giving up QB ratings of 98.0 and 94.4 between the two starting corners.

12. Miami selects Eric Fisher, T, Central Michigan

Miami drafts Fisher here for two reasons. First of all, Jake Long is a free agent, and if they let him go, Left Tackle becomes an instant priority need. Second of all, even if they do keep Jake Long around, their starting RT is absolutely terrible. Fisher coming in allows them to either kick Long over to the right side and start Fisher at left or just put Fisher in there on the right side to start things out. Either way, they need somebody to replace Jonathan Martin, easily the worst starter on the offense.

13. Tampa Bay selects Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

Daniel Te'o-Nesheim has had about 2 good games in his 3 seasons with Tampa. Time to move on and find a new starting RDE, and Dion Jordan could be that guy. I personally see Jordan as more of a 3-4 OLB, but he shows a ton of promise as a pass rusher and is clearly as explosive off the snap as anybody. Tampa fans might tell you they need a corner, but E.J. Biggers and Leonard Johnson showed a ton of promise in the playing time they had this season, and they had a shot at Mo Claiborne last year and opted out.

14. Carolina selects Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

I don't understand Carolina. Their defense struggled to stop the run, but no one player was spectacularly bad at it. They've got a solid LB corps, a pair of great DEs, and while their DTs aren't particularly good, Dwan Edwards has shown promise as a pass rusher and Carolina needs to do their best to protect their biggest investment: Cam Newton. Newton was pressured on 36.6% of dropbacks this past season, the 6th worst in the NFL. Their Ts have been solid, but both Gs are pretty bad. Warmack solidifies whichever G spot Carolina wants to stick him in, and allows them to focus on refining somebody to play at the other G spot.

15. New Orleans selects Ezekiel Ansah, DE, LSU

You know, I've seen a lot of mocks where New Orleans takes a DT early, but I just don't see it happening. They've got Hicks, they've got Bunkley, they've even got a guy by the name of Tom Johnson who has shown some promise. Cameron Jordan is great at LDE, but New Orleans needs a pass rusher, which neither Jordan nor Will Smith can do well as it stands. Ansah is a physical freak, and unfortunately, if anybody can get the best out of him, it's probably Sean freaking Payton. Hate that guy, so much.

16. St. Louis selects Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

St. Louis struggled with stopping the run this season, and while there are no real glaring needs on their offense, there are a lot of weaknesses on their defense that can be fixed by simply bringing in a big DT who can draw double teams and give guys like Chris Long and Robert Quinn an easier time on the edge. A lot of the problems in St. Louis are blamed on their FS, Craig Dahl, but the fact of the matter is simply that his responsibility shouldn't be stopping the run, the front seven should be able to handle it. Hankins also brings the ability for, if Rob Ryan should so desire, the switch over to a 3-4 scheme.

17. Pittsburgh selects John Jenkins, DT, Georgia

Casey Hampton is old and it's very clear when he steps on the field. Jenkins has Hampton size and is more athletic than Hampton could ever hope to be. If Hampton wants to retire, he can, but until he does, he's going to have 359 pounds worth of athlete breathing down his neck.

18. Dallas selects Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

Jerry Jones loves his Sooners, doesn't he? Doug Free gets the boot and Tyron Smith gets a new bookend buddy. Johnson and Smith are both LT prospects but with Smith being more experienced it's likely he'll get the starting LT spot with Johnson competing with him for it and getting the starting RT spot basically handed to him.

19. New York selects D.J. Fluker, RT, Alabama

Tom Coughlin hasn't had a consistent running game since 2008. I was tempted to get the Giants an ILB to replace Blackburn at this pick or a corner to replace Corey Webster, but there are no first round talents that fit New York's scheme at either of those positions here, so the Giants go BPA and bring in a big mauler to replace Sean Locklear at RT.

20. Chicago selects Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Chicago's defense was solid this season, as usual. Their offense, however, ran exclusively through Brandon Marshall. That's a problem. Jay Cutler needs another passing threat to get the ball to so he isn't honing in on Marshall on every play. Eifert will provide that as well as a solid run blocker to help bring Chicago's running game back to life. Gabe Carimi showed great promise as a run blocker, but struggled in pass protection, so something might need to be done about that, but with no elite LTs left in this draft, the Bears might just need Carimi to improve in pass pro and if he doesn't, draft a guy like Jake Matthews or Taylor Lewan next year.

21. Cincinnati selects Alec Ogletree, MLB, Georgia

Ray Maualuga has been pretty awful in his time with the Bengals, and Manti Te'o is more like Maualuga than most MLB prospects over the course of time that Cincinnati has figured out that he isn't the answer. Ogletree, on the other hand, is rangy, sideline to sideline, and shows the ability to work through trash to make plays in the run game, so basically the exact opposite of Te'o.

22. St. Louis selects Eric Reid, S, LSU

Craig Dahl is terrible. STL's subpar front seven exposed that by forcing him to play the run more than he should have, but at the end of the day Dahl just isn't good at anything. Reid is a great run defender, and while he does need to improve in pass coverage, he's better in coverage than Dahl is, and St. Louis fans will rejoice when they see that Dahl's replacement has just been drafted.

23. Minnesota selects Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

Minnesota's defense is solid and their running game borderline unstoppable, but when your #1 and #2 WRs are Jerome Simpson and Michael Jenkins, you're going to struggle. Percy Harvin getting healthy will help them a lot, but they still need a real outside threat to bring the offense full circle and give Christian Ponder the toys that he needs to progress as a QB. Patterson is, in my opinion, at least, the WR with the most upside in this draft, with the size, speed, and natural receiving abilities to become an elite starting #1 WR in the NFL within 3 years.

24. Indianapolis selects Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

Indianapolis needs to do a better job of protecting their #1 investment: Andrew Luck. Mike McGlynn was a glaring weakness on the OL this year, and Cooper fits into that system perfectly. This seems almost like a "meant to be" kind of pick.

25. Seattle selects Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Seattle is one stacked team, but they are losing their best pass rushing DT to free agency in Jason Jones. Richardson is a quick penetration specialist as a DT and will provide an excellent pass rush playing alongside Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin and Brandon Mebane. Richardson is also essentially the BPA at this spot, with most seeing him as a top 20 talent.

26. Green Bay selects Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama

In a bit of a statement pick, Green Bay selects the guy who's best known for his versatility in the first round. Jones will initially be coming in to replace Jeff Saturday, who got benched due to ineffectiveness in week 16, but injuries could call for Jones to move around, which he's proven isn't a problem for him. I don't think Green Bay will let the lisfranc injury scare them away from a guy as talented and versatile as Jones.

27. Houston selects Sam Montgomery, OLB, LSU

Houston needs pass rushers not named Watt. JJ was their only real source of a pass rush in 2012 with Brian Cushing getting hurt early, and their defense was essentially exposed after Cushing's injury. Once Houston gets Brian Cushing back and brings in a guy like Montgomery who is both very strong at the point of attack and a great bull rush pass disruptor, they'll be well on their way to the elite defense we all know Wade Phillips can create.

28. Denver selects Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Denver's defense looked pretty awful against Baltimore, and part of that is because Baltimore found a way to contain Denver's one real pass rush threat, Von Miller. Floyd is a great pass rusher and even in the run game, despite being a smaller DT, he tends to draw a LOT of double teams, which helps the guys around him. This could be useful not only to Denver's LBs but also to Elvis Dumervil, who saw his production drop in 2012 from previous years, especially if you take into account that he was rushing passers far more often due to having a lot more leads in games than in previous years.

29. New England selects Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

From one elite slot receiver to another, while Wes Welker is all but out the door in New England, Brady and the boys have their eyes on a more explosive, speedier homerun threat in Austin who replaces Welker in every phase of the game, from his production on offense to his return abilities. Austin might not have an immediate impact due to New England's offense being a complex one to learn and digest, but once he gets it down, he's going to make their offense scary. Scarier than usual, I should say.

30. Atlanta selects Alex Okafor, DE, Texas

John Abraham is aging and coming off an injury and Kroy Biermann apparently left his pass rush in 2010 where he posted a career-high 49 QB pressures. The Falcons were exposed from a talent standpoint in the playoffs as they struggled to both rush the passer and stop the run with their front seven, and Okafor does both very well. With the transition to the 3-4, Okafor has definite value as an OLB much like another former longhorn, Brian Orakpo, who Okafor is very reminiscent of.

31. Baltimore selects Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame

Ray Lewis is retiring at the end of the season and Baltimore needs somebody to replace him. Te'o might not ever be able to replace Ray Lewis from an emotional leader standpoint, but what he can do is replace his productivity on the field. Te'o and Lewis are very similar players on the field. Neither of them are the fastest and both of them need their DLs to take the OL out of the equation so they can use their instincts to sniff the play out and make plays on the ball. Te'o is faster and more athletic than Lewis at this point, and excels in a zone scheme with occasional flashes of man ability. The recent scandal might be exactly what Baltimore needs for Te'o to fall to their pick at either #31 or 32.

32. San Fransisco selects Jesse Williams, DL, Alabama

One thing Williams brings is versatility. If San Fransisco wants him to be their next Isaac Sopoaga, he can do that with the ability to be a 2-gap 3-4 space eating NT. On the other hand, if they want him to be their next Justin Smith, who is aging and running into a contract year, he can play that role as well. I had a difficult time choosing between Jesse and Sylvester Williams with this pick, but with Jesse being stout enough to play the nose while I don't believe Sylvester is, I went with the Alabama standout over the North Carolina boy.

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Nice mock. A few comments:

Good to see someone else has a good feel on Vaccaro. Safeties who can cover quick collegiate slot receivers with no help and still fill in the box aren't getting out of the top 16.

The reason why San Diego is drafting Fisher in every mock is because Gaither will be released. His team mates feel he was malingering last year and won't allow him back:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/jan/04/acee-jared-gaither-return/

Carolina drafted Silatolu to played LG in the 2nd round last year. As you rightly say, they will be "focus(ing) on refining somebody to play at the other G spot". They won't take Warmack - Sheldon Richardson has to be in play there.

If Hankins, Jenkins and Fluker all go in the top 20, then teams might as well not even bother watching college tape, as they're clearly ignoring it.

Eric Reid can't cover. You take that in round 3, not round 1.

Where are Keenan Allen and Xavier Rhodes?

Like every else, I LOVE the Okafor pick. I hope so much he makes it to us.

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I like this draft. A lot of time and effort went into this. Kudos Sir.

I don't think you avoid taking a DE because you have Jason Babin. What about the other DE spot? What about the future? They've already invested in DT with Tyson Alualu.

One thing people need to keep in mind (not that it likely would have affected your pick) is that Cleveland might be moving to a 3-4.

Right now, Nassib's stock is not 8 worthy.

The Titans interior o.line sucks. Honestly, I hope they get Womack.I like the idea of them getting Vacarro though.

Carolina HAS to go DT. There are plenty good enough for the spot so it wouldn't be a reach.

The Saints are moving to a 3-4.

Why in the world would Dallas not get Fluker if they want a RT?

Houston already got an edge rusher in Brooks Reed. Will they be so easy to move on from him?

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If Hankins, Jenkins and Fluker all go in the top 20, then teams might as well not even bother watching college tape, as they're clearly ignoring it.

Eric Reid can't cover. You take that in round 3, not round 1.

Where are Keenan Allen and Xavier Rhodes?

Fluker is a good RT prospect. DO you not agree?

That's just wrong. Eric Reid can definitely cover.

I agree. Both Allen and Rhodes should be in here.

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