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Smitty Is Not The One


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This is a revisit of a topic I started in 2011.

In that thread I noted that head coaches who take their teams to a Super Bowl do so generally within a five year window from first taking the HC position. Two exceptions that came up were Jeff Fisher at Titans and Andy Reid at Eagles, reaching the title game in their sixth season. I still didn't research this, but I did go way back and in fairness to Smitty found that Chuck Noll didn't reach the SB until his sixth season, and had a losing post season record (1-2) albeit better than Smitty's 1-4 post season record. before reaching the SB and winning it all.

The prime time is within a five year window, and with this failure Smith is now past his prime in that sense. Incidentally both coaches in the forthcoming Super Bowl have done so within 5 years at their jobs, with the Baltimore Harbaugh reaching it in his 5th year.

I understand what Smith has accomplished for this franchise, but that is not enough for me to ignore where he has failed.

Despite this, I don't really think that he should be fired (yet), but he presents an interesting dilemma for Falcons management. What we will find out is whether the Falcons are content to stick with what appears to be Bobby Cox V2, (who at least reached the title game several times) to an Atlanta market that is sufficiently happy to forgive or overlook post season failures that are as equally consistent as regular season success. That is of course provided he continues to have regular season success, there usually comes a point at which a coach loses his team – see Reid, Fisher, Fox at CAR.

Of course he has one more year, to get there as late as Reid and Fisher and Noll, though I expect for what it is worth, that he will not make to the Super Bowl next season. Like it or not Smitty's 1-4 post season record defines him as much if not more than his regular season record. He may win a Super Bowl as an HC, but it won't be with the Atlanta Falcons.

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Good grief, there are so many other coaches who did not reach a title in the fifth or sixth season this post is a waste. Do some more homework please.

Really so many? You can do the homework to disprove what I am saying which is that coaches don't take typically take more than 5 years from the date they start coaching a given team to reach the SB. Show me the many exceptions to that. Even coaches who have taken longer than 5 seasons, did not do so at their first team. NFL teams don't retain coaches who don't reach the SB within 5 seasons as their coach, because if they haven't done in that time, they are probably not going to for that team.

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Not sure who we would get to replace him. But there are some coaches that would be chomping at the bit to take over a team like this.

I agree that this has become more one of the NFL's more desirable jobs, and truthfully I'm glad that we don't need to need replace him yet, but unless he at least reaches the SB next year, his post season failures should be too much for Blank & co to ignore.

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This is a revisit of a topic I started in 2011.

In that thread I noted that head coaches who take their teams to a Super Bowl do so generally within a five year window from first taking the HC position. Two exceptions that came up were Jeff Fisher at Titans and Andy Reid at Eagles, reaching the title game in their sixth season. I still didn't research this, but I did go way back and in fairness to Smitty found that Chuck Noll didn't reach the SB until his sixth season, and had a losing post season record (1-2) albeit better than Smitty's 1-4 post season record. before reaching the SB and winning it all.

The prime time is within a five year window, and with this failure Smith is now past his prime in that sense. Incidentally both coaches in the forthcoming Super Bowl have done so within 5 years at their jobs, with he Baltimore Harbaugh reaching it in his 5th year.

I understand what Smith has accomplished for this franchise, but that is not enough for me to ignore where he has failed.

Despite this, I don't really think that he should be fired (yet), but he presents an interesting dilemma for Falcons management. What we will find out is whether the Falcons are content to stick with what appears to be Bobby Cox V2, (who at least reached the title game several times) to an Atlanta market that is sufficiently happy to forgive or overlook post season failures that are as equally consistent as regular season success. That is of course provided he continues to have regular season success, there usually comes a point at which a coach loses his team – see Reid, Fisher, Fox at CAR.

Of course he has one more year, to get there as late as Reid and Fisher and Noll, though I expect for what it is worth, that he will not make to the Super Bowl next season. Like it or not Smitty's 1-4 post season record defines him as much if not more than his regular season record. He may win a Super Bowl as an HC, but it won't be with the Atlanta Falcons.

You r 100% correct in your assessment.

Lets also look at Smitty other blunders. The mishap in NO, The Tampa fiasco, last week breakdown, and this week collapse. I've contended that MS and TS r in over their heads, which leads me to Thomas "wonder boy" Dimitrioff...He can't draft . I think the whole regime needs to be replaced. Mike Smith and Matt Ryan will no longer excite fanbase

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You r 100% correct in your assessment.

Lets also look at Smitty other blunders. The mishap in NO, The Tampa fiasco, last week breakdown, and this week collapse. I've contended that MS and TS r in over their heads, which leads me to Thomas "wonder boy" Dimitrioff...He can't draft . I think the whole regime needs to be replaced. Mike Smith and Matt Ryan will no longer excite fanbase

I'm not quite ready to say he needs to go now, but I am a decidedly a doubter until he proves me wrong, and I hope he does prove me wrong.

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He's got one more year for me. If this team continues to collapse in the 2nd half of games and continuous to display a softness and penchant for not being able to rise above the moment, it's time for him to go.

In that case, Greg Roman would be my choice to replace him.

I would agree, one more year is about right. I just wonder whether Blank would retain him beyond next season in hopes of a turning around post season misfortunes. That would be uncharacteristic in terms of what the NFL has done, typically coaches fade in the Reid, Turner way. On the flip side, the outgoing coach often ends up winning a title elsewhere.

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Frustrated Fan here! A very interesting post. We all agree MS & MR has had an outstanding regular season record during the career as Falcons but their post season record is embarrassing. Last year we fired majority of our supporting coaches as to say this year we would see a different team. Well, I saw some things that was the same old Falcons. We have always had a tackling problem, a second half adjustment problem, and a play calling problem. This year I saw the same. So I ask myself, what the next move? In the NFL you have to seized your moment when it comes and I think we have let our moment passed. We have put championship team on the field at least two years out of the last four. Something is really wrong in Atlanta and it need to fix because I am running out of excuses defending them from our haters when they say 'the same old Falcons, cannot win the important games." To a point where I am starting to believe it. This year lost hurt like He..! Mainly because we lost that game ourselves; all we had to do was put at least 6 points on the board the second half and we would be in the superbowl. Atlanta fans I think we deserve a superbowl just like the other teams. What do you think?

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Frustrated Fan here! A very interesting post. We all agree MS & MR has had an outstanding regular season record during the career as Falcons but their post season record is embarrassing. Last year we fired majority of our supporting coaches as to say this year we would see a different team. Well, I saw some things that was the same old Falcons. We have always had a tackling problem, a second half adjustment problem, and a play calling problem. This year I saw the same. So I ask myself, what the next move? In the NFL you have to seized your moment when it comes and I think we have let our moment passed. We have put championship team on the field at least two years out of the last four. Something is really wrong in Atlanta and it need to fix because I am running out of excuses defending them from our haters when they say 'the same old Falcons, cannot win the important games." To a point where I am starting to believe it. This year lost hurt like He..! Mainly because we lost that game ourselves; all we had to do was put at least 6 points on the board the second half and we would be in the superbowl. Atlanta fans I think we deserve a superbowl just like the other teams. What do you think?

Dude we went 13-3 and were 15 yards away from the Superbowl, we don't need to change much just get better peices on D and solidify the Oline, and maybe another rb and we will be fine.

Sky isn't falling as we are a top 4 team in the NFL.

Look at both teams in the SB they both lost the championship games last year.

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Yes we should do what the Chargers did when they fired Marty and then turned into a dynasty.

biggrin.png

Fired after a 14-2 season. I bet Charger fans wish they could have Marty back now. Ditto for the Browns with Belichick, the Bucs with Dungy, the Jags with Coughlin. Even Wayne Weaver came out right around the time he sold the Jaguars and said he regretted firing Coughlin.

Mr. Blank is a student of NFL history. He realizes that the teams that have long term success are the teams that have continuity like what Pittsburgh did with Cowher and Noll. You don't fire a coach every 4-5 years if he doesn't bring you a championship. Bottom-feeders teams do that. Not consistent winners.

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Dude we went 13-3 and were 15 yards away from the Superbowl, we don't need to change much just get better peices on D and solidify the Oline, and maybe another rb and we will be fine.

Sky isn't falling as we are a top 4 team in the NFL.

Look at both teams in the SB they both lost the championship games last year.

Dude no one said the sky was falling, but just like last year I had this same conservation with another fan. Like I told him we keep letting our moment pass. What I am going do for you is the same thing I did with him. I will remember your code name and we will talk again after the 2013 season and see if the conversation any different that this one. Like I told him, I help I am wrong because I want to have something to celebrate just like Baltimore who have won a playoff game the last five season and the 49ers who have fix their problems and seeing results. But you have to admit that this year was written just for Atlanta, home field throughout the playoffs and then the superbowl will be played in a dome this year. We miss an opportunity because we could not finish games. But you are right I will wait to see what happen next year.

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Frustrated Fan here! A very interesting post. We all agree MS & MR has had an outstanding regular season record during the career as Falcons but their post season record is embarrassing. Last year we fired majority of our supporting coaches as to say this year we would see a different team. Well, I saw some things that was the same old Falcons. We have always had a tackling problem, a second half adjustment problem, and a play calling problem. This year I saw the same. So I ask myself, what the next move? In the NFL you have to seized your moment when it comes and I think we have let our moment passed. We have put championship team on the field at least two years out of the last four. Something is really wrong in Atlanta and it need to fix because I am running out of excuses defending them from our haters when they say 'the same old Falcons, cannot win the important games." To a point where I am starting to believe it. This year lost hurt like He..! Mainly because we lost that game ourselves; all we had to do was put at least 6 points on the board the second half and we would be in the superbowl. Atlanta fans I think we deserve a superbowl just like the other teams. What do you think?

My thinking is that the continuity that Blank is aiming for, is generally sound but not without it's own consequences. In other words, I believe that they may have stayed with BVG & MM for too long. I see a difference of a .000 winning percentage in three playoff games under the previous staff compared to a .500 record this season with MN & DK to be directly related to those coordinators.

The unfortunate part for Smith is that even though 1-4 is better than 0-4, it's still not very good.

Next season will be Smitty's sixth in Atlanta, and his second with these coordinators. If Smith reaches and wins the NFC Championship next season he would have done so with in two years, same as the 49er Harbaugh - at least as far as the coach/coordinator pairing goes.

It's definitely doable and the longer it takes, the less likelihood it will happen with the Smitty Falcons, as there just isn't much if any precedent for it historically - thus the five year frame.

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Yes we should do what the Chargers did when they fired Marty and then turned into a dynasty.

That is of course a risk not a foregone conclusion, but I don't think many would argue that this is a better managed organization, so I wouldn't expect such an outcome. I would expect that if Smitty doesn't get it done soon, whomever gets us to a Super Bowl would do so within five years of starting the job here.

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This is a revisit of a topic I started in 2011.

In that thread I noted that head coaches who take their teams to a Super Bowl do so generally within a five year window from first taking the HC position. Two exceptions that came up were Jeff Fisher at Titans and Andy Reid at Eagles, reaching the title game in their sixth season. I still didn't research this, but I did go way back and in fairness to Smitty found that Chuck Noll didn't reach the SB until his sixth season, and had a losing post season record (1-2) albeit better than Smitty's 1-4 post season record. before reaching the SB and winning it all.

The prime time is within a five year window, and with this failure Smith is now past his prime in that sense. Incidentally both coaches in the forthcoming Super Bowl have done so within 5 years at their jobs, with the Baltimore Harbaugh reaching it in his 5th year.

I understand what Smith has accomplished for this franchise, but that is not enough for me to ignore where he has failed.

Despite this, I don't really think that he should be fired (yet), but he presents an interesting dilemma for Falcons management. What we will find out is whether the Falcons are content to stick with what appears to be Bobby Cox V2, (who at least reached the title game several times) to an Atlanta market that is sufficiently happy to forgive or overlook post season failures that are as equally consistent as regular season success. That is of course provided he continues to have regular season success, there usually comes a point at which a coach loses his team – see Reid, Fisher, Fox at CAR.

Of course he has one more year, to get there as late as Reid and Fisher and Noll, though I expect for what it is worth, that he will not make to the Super Bowl next season. Like it or not Smitty's 1-4 post season record defines him as much if not more than his regular season record. He may win a Super Bowl as an HC, but it won't be with the Atlanta Falcons.

You're a freaking idiot pun intended

Smitty Ryan and TD best thing to ever happen to Atl

Falcons need more physicality on both lines plus a top notch rb and another pass rusher to win a SB

Smittys the reason we made it this far

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You're a freaking idiot pun intended

Smitty Ryan and TD best thing to ever happen to Atl

Falcons need more physicality on both lines plus a top notch rb and another pass rusher to win a SB

Smittys the reason we made it this far

Wow name calling, that never happens on the webs. You've demonstrated what a freaking idiot is, by completely ignoring and not providing anything to disprove anything I have said. Doing so is clearly too complicated for some.

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