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Mr. K's Completion Percentage Has Been Dropping Like A Rock


Red Rain
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I noticed an interesting stat concerning SF's QB. When he first took over in mid-season, his completion percentage was great.

  • STL 64%
  • CHI 69%
  • NO 64%
  • STL 65%
  • MIA 78%

Then suddenly, his completion percentage fell off the cliff.

  • NE 56%
  • SEA 52%
  • ARI 57%
  • GB 54%

What this tells me is that once teams got some tape on this kid, they figured out how to shut down his passing game.

The other thing I noticed was his running success was related to their winning. In games SF won, K ran for the following yardage: 10, 27, 53, 28, 5, 181. In games SF lost (or tied), K ran for: 66, 84, 31. (fixed the running numbers).

I also looked at RB Gore's numbers since K took over at QB. His game yardage has been: 97/4.6 (STL tie), 78/4.6, 83/4.4, 58/2.5 (STL loss), 64/5.3, 83/4.0, 28/4.7 (SEA loss), 68/3.4, 119/5.2 (total-yards/yards-per-carry).

Offensively (at least according to the stats) SF looks a lot like the old Mike Vick led falcons: a strong running game and mediocre (at best) passing game.

Our strategy seem pretty obvious: shut down the running game and force their QB to beat us with his arm.

We can do that by a combination of stacking the d-line, and running up the score early (and putting them in play from behind mode). Consequently, I expect the Falcons offense to come out playing aggressive and attempting to make this into an offensive shoot out.

Edited by Red Rain
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We're going to need Samuel, McClain, and Robinson to take care of business this week. We need to buy the DL time and let the backers maintain position. My biggest worry is not Gore but Copperneck (sp) getting out in space knowing that our guys don't like to tackle opposing players.

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I was speaking to a guy at work who came in yesterday about the upcoming game and we also both agreed on that strategy for getting the win.

Contain the QB and force him to beat us with his arm. Try our best to keep Gore from breaking big gains or conversions.

We do that and the Falcons have a good shot. Either way should be a great game.

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The other thing I noticed was his running success was related to their winning. In games SF won, K ran for the following yardage: 133, 90, 100, 108, 114, & 181. In games SF lost (or tied), K ran for: 84, 83, 72.

Um... are you accusing Kaepernick of having 965 yards rushing in 9 games?

The Green Bay game was the first time he ever ran for more than 84 yards. His other totals were 66 (T),10 (W), 27 (W), 84 (L), 53 (W), 28 (W), 31 (L), 5 (W).

I don't really see a correlation between him running the ball and the team winning. His second highest run totals resulted in a Loss and a Tie

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Dang, good to see those stats aren't right. Common sense says if you contain him, he shouldn't beat you consistently with his arm. However, that was the plan last week, and Hellen Keller could have carved our D up, so we got to do a better job in coverage.

No way he plays like he did last week. Also, I think our D will be a lot better this week too.

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Coaches should check out how TB always used to shutdown Vick

Tampa had some great defensive players, and Vick couldn't read zone worth a crap. They did a good job, but you also had teams that blitzed the heck out of him beat him too (Chiefs game) which goes against wisdom. However, teams still blitz him, he still can't read it, so I think it is just him. Mush rush isn't the way to go though see Vick era Carolina games.

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He's just not accurate. A lot of his passes are high, and I've seen receivers drop passes.

2 things....

1) The drops is correct. Anyone on the team not named Crabtree has had issues holding onto the ball. the Kid has a freakin CANNON. Delanie Walker in particular has had issues as has Vernon.

2) He actually IS Accurate. The issue tho is that he's attempting a MUCH, MUCH larger % of his throws beyond 20 yards. IE, his completion % has dropped, but its due to the distance and difficulty of his passes.

On the season (discounting playoffs), Kaep is the most accurate passer in the NFL on passes that travel more than 20 yards in the air (according to PFF - Pro Football Focus).

Edited by Marvin49
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3 of his last 4 games have had QBRs higher than 80, and 3 of his last 5 have had an NFL rating higher than 100. Completion percentage goes down, effectiveness goes up.

NFL Quarterback Rating Formula (National Football League)

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20

b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5

c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4

d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d can not be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06NFL Quarterback Rating Formulad) / .06

I've always considerd the QB rating to be a number pulled out of thin air just so someone could have an extra stat. About as meaningful to the real world as voodoo.

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2 things....

1) The drops is correct. Anyone on the team not named Crabtree has had issues holding onto the ball. the Kid has a freakin CANNON. Delanie Walker in particular has had issues as has Vernon.

2) He actually IS Accurate. The issue tho is that he's attempting a MUCH, MUCH larger % of his throws beyond 20 yards. IE, his completion % has dropped, but its due to the distance and difficulty of his passes.

On the season (discounting playoffs), Kaep is the most accurate passer in the NFL on passes that travel more than 20 yards in the air (according to PFF - Pro Football Focus).

That is only because the DBs break containment and cheat looking to see if Colin K is running leaving the WR wide open. I have seen him make some good throws just not sure he can do in week in week out.

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Yes...his comp% has gone down.

However....go look up his Yards Per Attempt.

That may shed some light.

Average yards per completion:

  • 6.9 (tie)
  • 10.6
  • 9.2
  • 6.5 (loss)
  • 8.0
  • 8.8
  • 6.8 (loss)
  • 9.9
  • 8.5

Nfl.com doesn't list his yards per attempt, but looking at his yards per completion numbers it doesn't look like he is attempting more long passes than he did in the past.

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That is pretty interesting. The way a lot of the Niner fans are talking this year you would think he is at a 70% completion rating. He was at what 55% against GB? Thats not terrible and the ones he did make were impressive. I still am not afraid. After watching the replay I really thought a lot of it was more on Green Bay losing and screwing up then it was the Niners balling out.

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Average yards per completion:

  • 6.9 (tie)
  • 10.6
  • 9.2
  • 6.5 (loss)
  • 8.0
  • 8.8
  • 6.8 (loss)
  • 9.9
  • 8.5

Nfl.com doesn't list his yards per attempt, but looking at his yards per completion numbers it doesn't look like he is attempting more long passes than he did in the past.

His YPA for the season is 8.3....which would have led the NFL if he's had about 6 more attempts. That's the point I'm making.

I believe it was something like 8.4 vs GB, but I could be wrong.

The point I'm making isn't in regards to early vs late....I'm just saying his % is low in general because he throws the ball mid to deep...ALOT.

Again according to PFF, he throws 27% of his passes more than 20 yards in the air. Thats 2n'd in the NFL.

....and BTW, I think those are his yards per attempt that you are quoting.

Edited by Marvin49
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Yeah Gore is very Turner-esque. Huge drop off in production this year. Yet the media continues to rave about him and on the flipside say Turner is done.

?

Averaged 4.8 yards a carry and had 1200 yards.

He ran for 119 against the Packers.

He did get banged up late (as he usually does and why they have spelled him all year with Hunter and James), but looked refreshed after the week off.

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