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49Ers Defensive Stats Misleading?


wuskillzz
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I found it interesting that that the top 2 scoring defenses were both from the same division. In situation like this, sometimes schedules influence stats since each plays almost the same schedule(minus two games) as other teams in division. Anyways, I decided to look at the 49ers schedule and the scoring offense of there opponents Anyways here is what I found:

Seven games on the 49ers schedule were against one of the bottom eight (25th or worse) scoring offenses. These teams included, New York Jets(28), Arizona(31), St Louis(25), and Miami(27). Obviously they played Arizona and St. Louis twice.

Also, when playing top 10 offenses, the 49ers gave up 26.8 points per game. This number jumps to 31.0 if you do not include the first game versus Seattle.

Thoughts?

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I feel like I'm repeating myself every time I say this. Nosey McGee's stats from the GB game were less about him, and more about Green Bay's LBs collapsing as soon as he faked to Gore. ATL handled that MUCH better than GB did. They held contain, and decided to let Wilson beat them with his arm. He came close, but we know how it turned out...

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I feel like I'm repeating myself every time I say this. Nosey McGee's stats from the GB game were less about him, and more about Green Bay's LBs collapsing as soon as he faked to Gore. ATL handled that MUCH better than GB did. They held contain, and decided to let Wilson beat them with his arm. He came close, but we know how it turned out...

This x1000000. If we make CK beat us with his arm/decision making, I think we have a good shot to keep their O in check. We are NOT the same defense as the packers. Couple that with inflated defensive stats and we've got ourselves a nice little upset in the making. One thing though, is that we have to lay the wood to CK a couple of times to rattle his cage. Gamble with a CB/NB blitz, whatever you have to do. Just put his azz on the turf.

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I felt the same way with Seattle. That entire division has defense and no offense, so stats are a little deceiving. Of course, Wilson surprised the heck out of me along with our D.

The biggest difference to me is that Seattle doesn't have a pass rush and the 49ers do. If both Smiths are relatively healthy they can cause problems. We struggled have struggled against lesser defenses because of a rush. Carolina, Tampa, Saints. We went 5 straight 3 and outs against the Saints I believe. Tampa pass D was crap, and we didn't light them up either.

You just never know. They are talented on D you can't deny that. Front 7 is good, but we protect, 30 points shouldn't be a problem.

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This x1000000. If we make CK beat us with his arm/decision making, I think we have a good shot to keep their O in check. We are NOT the same defense as the packers. Couple that with inflated defensive stats and we've got ourselves a nice little upset in the making. One thing though, is that we have to lay the wood to CK a couple of times to rattle his cage. Gamble with a CB/NB blitz, whatever you have to do. Just put his azz on the turf.

can we afford 15 yards early for a hit on kaepernick? cause a big hit on a throw will mostly likely be a flag
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I feel like I'm repeating myself every time I say this. Nosey McGee's stats from the GB game were less about him, and more about Green Bay's LBs collapsing as soon as he faked to Gore. ATL handled that MUCH better than GB did. They held contain, and decided to let Wilson beat them with his arm. He came close, but we know how it turned out...

oi...more funny named for Kaep, huh?

Anyway....

I actually happen to agree with you about Kaeps stats in regards to the Packers. Personally I think Roman (49ers OC) saw something on film in regards to Capers and the Packer D. Kaep ran that option read several times very early in the season when he came in for a play or 2 to spell Smith, but he actually doesn't run it all that much. Against GB tho they seemed to employ it quite often. The DE CONSTANTLY crashed down and then had no clue where the ball was. Kaep also gained more than half his yards on standard scrambles...and Capers had the D in Man D which gave Kaep all kinds of running room.

Against the Seahawks, Nolan told the DE NOT to crash down on the play. Ever. Thats why Wilson always handed off and how they "stopped" the option. They then played Lynch very well. They also play alot of Zone which will help with the scrambling.

Roman will see this tho. No 2 gameplans for him are ever the same. I'd be surprised if you saw much of the read option at all.

My guess? I think they line up in jumbo packages for a large % of the game and just pound the ball over and over with Gore and James forcing Nolan to devote another man to the box and then hit Davis, Walker, or Crabtree on play action.

I doubt Kaep has more than 50 yards rushing in this game...and probably alot less.

As for the original topic....come on guys...PLEASE stop trying to discredit the Niners D. Its GOOD. Very Good.

Will they give up some points to really good passing attacks? Yes....and they win. In the last two years they have beaten the Packers twice, the Lions twice, the Saints twice, and the Patriots.

They have trouble with teams built like they are....Very Good D, Big physical RBs (Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch).

I don't think the Falcons are built that way. Not predicting a winner....just sayin....STOP.

Edited by Marvin49
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As a Niner fan I can tell you much of our defense hinges on Justin Smith. When healthy he occupies two offensive linemen and allows Aldon Smith to get to the QB. If he can play at a high level we will be able to get pressure on Ryan which will help our cause.

But as you all know, Justin Smith is injured. So I think it will be a high scoring game and that actually may favor the Falcons because lets face it, Roddy and Julio are studs and they won't be easy to cover.

Niners will try to counter with a heavy dose of running the ball. Our OL is playing very well right now and they may be the most physical in all of football. Several games this year you'll see the opposing defense basically quitting because they are so battered. Niners WILL try to control the clock and keep Atlanta's offense on the sidelines.

Still having a tough time with the media. They are not giving the Falcons enough credit you guys have a very good football team.

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oi...more funny named for Kaep, huh?

Anyway....

I actually happen to agree with you about Kaeps stats in regards to the Packers. Personally I think Roman (49ers OC) saw something on film in regards to Capers and the Packer D. Kaep ran that option read several times very early in the season when he came in for a play or 2 to spell Smith, but he actually doesn't run it all that much. Against GB tho they seemed to employ it quite often. The DE CONSTANTLY crashed down and then had no clue where the ball was. Kaep also gained more than half his yards on standard scrambles...and Capers had the D in Man D which gave Kaep all kinds of running room.

Against the Seahawks, Nolan told the DE NOT to crash down on the play. Ever. Thats why Wilson always handed off and how they "stopped" the option. They then played Lynch very well. They also play alot of Zone which will help with the scrambling.

Roman will see this tho. No 2 gameplans for him are ever the same. I'd be surprised if you saw much of the read option at all.

My guess? I think they line up in jumbo packages for a large % of the game and just pound the ball over and over with Gore and James forcing Nolan to devote another man to the box and then hit Davis, Walker, or Crabtree on play action.

I doubt Kaep has more than 50 yards rushing in this game...and probably alot less.

As for the original topic....come on guys...PLEASE stop trying to discredit the Niners D. Its GOOD. Very Good.

Will they give up some points to really good passing attacks? Yes....and they win. In the last two years they have beaten the Packers twice, the Lions twice, the Saints twice, and the Patriots.

They have trouble with teams built like they are....Very Good D, Big physical RBs (Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch).

I don't think the Falcons are built that way. Not predicting a winner....just sayin....STOP.

I'm not discounting that Defense at all. BUT... in the words of Roddy White "Pick your poison, either way, you're gonna die..."

The good part for us is that Ryan is tough as nails, and has actually done better when he's being pressured. Out OLine isn't great, but it's good enough to give him time to throw. And Although your LBs are good, they don't match up well with TG. They also don't stand a chance if Julio, RW, or Harry Douglas come across the middle.

The bottom line is, the 49er's are the flavor of the week. I get that. We won't get a lick of credit if we beat them, in fact, the media will just proclaim the winner in the AFC to be the SB champ. ATL is much better than the clips on SportsCenter would lead you to believe. ATL was going to be "Dominated in every facet" (Jaws) by the Giants. 34-0. They were going to "have problems containing the rushing game" against Seattle. They did fine. Every week, we hear reasons why ATL will lose, and 14 outta 17 weeks, we've won.

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oi...more funny named for Kaep, huh?

Anyway....

I actually happen to agree with you about Kaeps stats in regards to the Packers. Personally I think Roman (49ers OC) saw something on film in regards to Capers and the Packer D. Kaep ran that option read several times very early in the season when he came in for a play or 2 to spell Smith, but he actually doesn't run it all that much. Against GB tho they seemed to employ it quite often. The DE CONSTANTLY crashed down and then had no clue where the ball was. Kaep also gained more than half his yards on standard scrambles...and Capers had the D in Man D which gave Kaep all kinds of running room.

Against the Seahawks, Nolan told the DE NOT to crash down on the play. Ever. Thats why Wilson always handed off and how they "stopped" the option. They then played Lynch very well. They also play alot of Zone which will help with the scrambling.

Roman will see this tho. No 2 gameplans for him are ever the same. I'd be surprised if you saw much of the read option at all.

My guess? I think they line up in jumbo packages for a large % of the game and just pound the ball over and over with Gore and James forcing Nolan to devote another man to the box and then hit Davis, Walker, or Crabtree on play action.

I doubt Kaep has more than 50 yards rushing in this game...and probably alot less.

As for the original topic....come on guys...PLEASE stop trying to discredit the Niners D. Its GOOD. Very Good.

Will they give up some points to really good passing attacks? Yes....and they win. In the last two years they have beaten the Packers twice, the Lions twice, the Saints twice, and the Patriots.

They have trouble with teams built like they are....Very Good D, Big physical RBs (Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch).

Yea, Turner is small. Lol

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San Francisco has a very good defense, but in a big money game, the Falcons offense can score on anybody.

One of the things the Niners aren't doing very well right now, like the Falcons, is rushing the passer. I think that will hurt the Niners badly in this game.

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The last time the Niners had a monster game (Against the Bills), they scored 45 points and then 3 points against the Giants. The both times they won their second game and scored 40 points in the process, they lost the following week. They haven't won 3 in a row. They haven't won a road playoff game since 89. They allowed the Seahawks to score 40 points on them. The defense is streaky.

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The Niners gave up 30.5 points per game against winning teams on the road this season, while the Falcons gave up 16.5 per game to winning teams, at home or otherwise.

While the Niners may certainly win, there is nothing that points to the easy victory that most pundits are predicting.

Edited by cooperbh
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San Francisco has a very good defense, but in a big money game, the Falcons offense can score on anybody.

One of the things the Niners aren't doing very well right now, like the Falcons, is rushing the passer. I think that will hurt the Niners badly in this game.

Exactly.

If you do not put pressure on Ryan with just a regualr pressure you are DONE. he has been Money.

If you have to blitz you are EXTRA done..... just ask Seattle.

I know people here can be down on our Oline someimtes ( wsometimes warrented.. sometimes not) but it is a MUCH better line than the Packers and I think we will see Ryan have similar protection as he got Sunday......If that happens their secondary is TOAST!

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Here is one big thing that needs to be said. Seahawks only gave up 15.3 points per game. How did they do in Atlanta?

One other thing Atlanta Put up the most points Seattle saw all year.

Yep! Good stuff indeed. I love people around here still trying to slight Matt Ryans game. He is the only QB they played including Brady and Rodgers who put up 30pts. Sounds good to me.

So when I hear that we won't score on SF I just laugh to myself. I don't see it as disrespect to us , I see it as just being ignorant and lazy. If they would just go watch Falcons tape they would be talking a different story.

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You do realize that of the Packers 31 points, 7 came on a pick-six and 7 game with about a minute left during garbage time, right? In reality, the Niners D held the Packers to about 17 points. During the season, the Packers averaged 27.1 points a game and the Falcons averaged 26.2, so the offenses are very close in production.

I'm not sure at all about this game and I can't understand my fellow Niner fans who are so sure the Niners are going to win. But, if I were you, I wouldn't be expecting your Falcons to lay 35 on them. Yes, it may happen, but they're not going to be in a soft zone minus Justin Smith like they were during the second half of the Patriots game and they're not going to be out of gas without Justin Smith like they were in the Seahawks game. This is the NFC Championship game and they all remember how they came a fumble or two away from winning the last one they were in. I expect the Niner defense to be very up.

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I'm not discounting that Defense at all. BUT... in the words of Roddy White "Pick your poison, either way, you're gonna die..."

The good part for us is that Ryan is tough as nails, and has actually done better when he's being pressured. Out OLine isn't great, but it's good enough to give him time to throw. And Although your LBs are good, they don't match up well with TG. They also don't stand a chance if Julio, RW, or Harry Douglas come across the middle.

The bottom line is, the 49er's are the flavor of the week. I get that. We won't get a lick of credit if we beat them, in fact, the media will just proclaim the winner in the AFC to be the SB champ. ATL is much better than the clips on SportsCenter would lead you to believe. ATL was going to be "Dominated in every facet" (Jaws) by the Giants. 34-0. They were going to "have problems containing the rushing game" against Seattle. They did fine. Every week, we hear reasons why ATL will lose, and 14 outta 17 weeks, we've won.

A couple things..."flavor of the week"? Seriously? LOL. Its not like they were a fumble away from the Super Bowl LAST year or anything.

Also...don't expect HUGE pressure on Ryan. Seriously. Expect the 49ers to rush only 3 or 4 and drop the rest onto coverage. Thats how they have played Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford. They got very few sacks in those games and won them all.

I do agree tho that Atlanta has been disrespected. In a BIG way. I'd much rather be the underdog in this game.

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A couple things..."flavor of the week"? Seriously? LOL. Its not like they were a fumble away from the Super Bowl LAST year or anything.

Also...don't expect HUGE pressure on Ryan. Seriously. Expect the 49ers to rush only 3 or 4 and drop the rest onto coverage. Thats how they have played Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford. They got very few sacks in those games and won them all.

I do agree tho that Atlanta has been disrespected. In a BIG way. I'd much rather be the underdog in this game.

You're the flavor this week, just like Seattle and Denver were last week, Washington a few weeks before, Giants all year, etc. The only reason everyone is on the nuts is because of Green Bay's porous defense. That it.

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