Jump to content

Seattle Has Tough Road To Conference Championship


cooperbh
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yes, they are dangerous. Yes, they are hot. But nobody should be crowning them just yet. All individual player matchups aside, there are several significant hurdles the Seahawks must clear in order to make it past the Falcons.

Travel

I’ll start with the most obvious obstacle.

Only once in the 34 years since the bye week was implemented in 1978 has a west coast team won back-to-back road playoff games on the east coast. That was the 1989 Rams. And unlike the 2012 Seahawks, that team had had a winning record on the road during the regular season.

Jet lag is no joke. When the Seahawks take the field Sunday at 1:00 pm, it will feel like 10:00 am to them. That's got to have an effect.

The fact that Seattle is 1-11 over the last five years when they have to travel east for a 1:00 pm kickoff says it most definitely does.

The Georgia Dome

There are home field advantages, and then there are dome field advantages. While the Seahawks five-year home record of 24-17 is pretty impressive, it doesn’t hold a candle to the Falcons’ 35-8 home record during the same period.

Matt Ryan absolutely loves the Georgia Dome. He’s had winning streaks of 17 and 11 under the white roof. He’s never had a losing streak there.

Don’t look now, but Ryan enters Sundays’ contest coming fresh off a home loss.

Rookie QB

Historically, the divisional round has not been kind to rookie QBs. In 34 years, only four of them have advanced to the conference championship round. And those victories were largely in spite of them, not because of them.

No rookie QB has ever completed more than 56% of their passes or thrown for more than 181 yards in the divisional round. Only one has had a passer rating higher than 60. None have had a passer rating higher than 89.

While anything’s possible, those numbers certainly don’t bode well for Russell Wilson’s chances of becoming the first rookie starter in NFL history to reach an NFC Championship game.

Winning Streak

Momentum is great and all, but it can only go in one direction for so long before it starts swinging back the other way. And that’s ultimately the problem with long winning streaks. The longer one goes on, the greater the chance it will abruptly end.

The Seahawks are currently riding a six game win streak, going back to week 13 of the regular season. They will have to win seven to get past us and reach a conference championship. Just one more win sounds easy, right?

Well, turns out there have been only two wild card round teams in NFL history to ride a winning streak that long on their way to a conference championship appearance: The 2000 Ravens and the 2007 Chargers. No NFC team has ever done it.

Everyone likes to cite the 2011 Giants and 2010 Packers as recent examples of wild card round teams who “got hot at the right moment” and rode a winning streak to a title. What they fail to mention is that both teams reached the conference championship by winning just four straight, not seven. Neither needed more than six straight wins to earn a ring.

Winning seven consecutive games is hard, I don’t care who you are or what month it is. History says the Seahawks will have an awfully hard time sustaining their current roll.

Coaching

We all know that Mike Smith has failed to make it to a conference championship game in three attempts. While that appears to bode well for Seattle, it should be pointed out that Pete Carroll is 0 for 3 in this category as well, eliminated each time with a loss on the road. Smitty is not the only coach in this game with demons to exorcise.

It should also be pointed out that Carroll's Seahawks have been one of the most penalized teams in the league since he arrived in Seattle in 2010, ranking 24th in number of penalties committed in 2012. Conversely, Smith's Falcons have drawn the least number of infractions in the NFL since he took over in 2008, ranking 1st this season for the second time in three years. In a noisy dome coming off a cross-country trip, that difference could be fatal for a young, undisciplined team like the Seahawks.

Also, while Seattle's turnaround under Carroll is commendable, let's not overlook the fact that he's had just one winning season there in three years, in arguably the weakest division in the NFL. His overall career record - 3 winning seasons in seven years - is hardly awe-inspiring. We're not going up against Bill Belichick here.

Oh, and did I mention that Mike Smith is 2-0 head-to-head against Carroll during his career, with both wins coming on Seattle’s home field? Well, Carroll doesn't get his biggest advantage this time around.

So, is Seattle really the team nobody wants to play? I don't know. They look pretty playable to me.

Edited by cooperbh
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not kill your buzz but that was 24 years ago not 34. But more importantly the pass statistics has absolutely no bearing on the future. All those numbers will mean absolutely nothing on when the clock starts running Sunday at 1:00. The better team will win. Period.

1978 was 34 years ago.

But seeing as how you once posted a picture of Dunta from 2008 and implied that it was taken in 2012, I'm not surprised that you are confused about that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not kill your buzz but that was 24 years ago not 34. But more importantly the pass statistics has absolutely no bearing on the future. All those numbers will mean absolutely nothing on when the clock starts running Sunday at 1:00. The better team will win. Period.

The better team is the Falcons. Period.

Great post coop! Well written and right on the money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the seahawks are really up against it this week. its a very big task ahead of them and its a proven fact that west coast teams struggle on the east coast, especially in 1:00 kickoffs. Great post coop throwing facts into the face of media propoganda. They all just wanna see a Gbay sea fail mary rematch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, they are dangerous. Yes, they are hot. But nobody should be crowning them just yet. All individual player matchups aside, there are several significant hurdles the Seahawks must clear in order to make it past the Falcons.

Travel

I’ll start with the most obvious obstacle.

Only once in the 34 years since the bye week was implemented in 1978 has a west coast team won back-to-back road playoff games on the east coast. That was the 1989 Rams. And unlike the 2012 Seahawks, that team had had a winning record on the road during the regular season.

Jet lag is no joke. When the Seahawks take the field Sunday at 1:00 pm, it will feel like 10:00 am to them. That's got to have an effect.

The Georgia Dome

There are home field advantages, and then there are home field advantages. While the Seahawks five-year home record of 24-17 is pretty impressive, it doesn’t hold a candle to the Falcons’ 35-8 home record during the same period.

Matt Ryan absolutely loves the Georgia Dome. He’s had winning streaks of 17 and 11 under the white roof. He’s never had a losing streak there.

Don’t look now, but Ryan enters Sundays’ contest coming fresh off a home loss.

Rookie QB

Historically, the divisional round has not been kind to rookie QBs. In 34 years, only four of them have advanced to the conference championship round. And those victories were largely in spite of them, not because of them.

No rookie QB has ever completed more than 56% of their passes or thrown for more than 181 yards in the divisional round. Only one has had a passer rating higher than 60. None have had a passer rating higher than 89.

While anything’s possible, those numbers certainly don’t bode well for Russell Wilson’s chances of becoming the first rookie starter in NFL history to reach an NFC Championship game.

Winning Streak

Momentum is great and all, but it can only go in one direction for so long before it starts swinging back the other way. And that’s ultimately the problem with long winning streaks. The longer one goes on, the greater the chance it will abruptly end.

The Seahawks are currently riding a six game win streak, going back to week 13 of the regular season. They will have to win seven to get past us and reach a conference championship. Just one more win sounds easy, right?

Well, turns out there have been only two wild card round teams in NFL history to ride a winning streak that long on their way to a conference championship appearance: The 2000 Ravens and the 2007 Chargers. No NFC team has ever done it.

Everyone likes to cite the 2011 Giants and 2010 Packers as recent examples of wild card round teams who “got hot at the right moment” and rode a winning streak to a title. What they fail to mention is that both teams reached the conference championship by winning just four straight, not seven. Neither needed more than six straight wins to earn a ring.

Winning seven consecutive games is hard, I don’t care who you are or what month it is. History says the Seahawks will have an awfully hard time sustaining their current roll.

Coaching

We all know that Mike Smith has failed to make it to a conference championship game in three attempts. While that appears to bode well for Seattle, it should be pointed out that Pete Carroll is 0 for 3 in this category as well, eliminated each time with a loss on the road. Smitty is not the only coach in this game with demons to exorcise.

It should also be pointed out that Carroll's Seahawks have been one of the most penalized teams in the league since he arrived in Seattle in 2010, ranking 24th in number of penalties committed in 2012. Conversely, Smith's Falcons have drawn the least number of infractions in the NFL since he took over in 2008, ranking 1st this season for the second time in three years. In a noisy dome coming off a cross-country trip, that difference could be fatal for a young, undisciplined team like the Seahawks.

Also, while Seattle's turnaround under Carroll is commendable, let's not overlook the fact that he's had just one winning season there in three years, in arguably the weakest division in the NFL. His overall career record - 3 winning seasons in seven years - is hardly awe-inspiring. We're not going up against Bill Belichick here.

Oh, and did I mention that Mike Smith is 2-0 head-to-head against Carroll during his career, with both wins coming on Seattle’s home field? Well, Carroll doesn't get his biggest advantage this time around.

So, is Seattle really the team nobody wants to play? I don't know. They look pretty playable to me.

Whats this? Logic!?? WITCH!! BURN HIM!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just heard Mike Smith is 11-1 against rookie QB's. I think his only loss was at Houston with Yates last season.

Yet another stat that does not bode well for Seattle this week.

Two more stats that don't bode well for Seattle this week:

-No head coach who has won 10 or more games in four of five seasons has ever failed to win a playoff game during that time.

-No QB in the Super Bowl era has ever lost his first four playoff starts.*

Seattle is gonna have to rewrite a whole h*ll of a lot of NFL history in order to win this Sunday. I'm not saying they can't, but it's absolutely ludicrous to me that so many believe the Seahawks already have this game won.

*courtesy of Peyton

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny thing about history and records... history gets made, and records get broken. All you have there is statistics you dug up to favor your team. It's called being a homer. Not a big deal... this is a Falcons forum afterall. Just throwing in a dose of reality that they still have to play the game. This is no paper tiger your team is playing. They make their own history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny thing about history and records... history gets made, and records get broken. All you have there is statistics you dug up to favor your team. It's called being a homer. Not a big deal... this is a Falcons forum afterall. Just throwing in a dose of reality that they still have to play the game. This is no paper tiger your team is playing. They make their own history.

I agree, 100%. The Falcons aren't going to win because of history. They are going to win because they are better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Also, while Seattle's turnaround under Carroll is commendable, let's not overlook the fact that he's had just one winning season there in three years, in arguably the weakest division in the NFL. His overall career record - 3 winning seasons in seven years - is hardly awe-inspiring."

Prime example of how the media wants to make the Falcons look like failures and not mention the shortcomings of other teams. We just need to Rise Up and show all these clowns. What will they say when the Seahawk loses to us once again? Not a d@mn thing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not worried about what hurdles the Seahawks may or may not have. The Falcons are going to win because they are the better team.

There is a lot more to winning in the NFL than simply being better than your opponent.

Did the Bucs beat the Falcons in the last game of the regular season because they were the better team?

Or how about when the Cards beat the Pats earlier this year? Or when the Rams beat the 49ers?

Things like momentum, pressure, fatigue, coaching, crowd noise, etc. can have just as much if not more of an impact on the outcome of a game as the talent on the field.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a lot more to winning in the NFL than simply being better than your opponent.

Did the Bucs beat the Falcons in the last game of the regular season because they were the better team?

Or how about when the Cards beat the Pats earlier this year? Or when the Rams beat the 49ers?

Things like momentum, pressure, fatigue, coaching, crowd noise, etc. can have just as much if not more of an impact on the outcome of a game as the talent on the field.

I am going to choose to think the Falcons win this game because they are the better team. You go with the other factors if you like. It's all good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny thing about history and records... history gets made, and records get broken. All you have there is statistics you dug up to favor your team. It's called being a homer. Not a big deal... this is a Falcons forum afterall. Just throwing in a dose of reality that they still have to play the game. This is no paper tiger your team is playing. They make their own history.

The reality is that history tends to repeat itself way more often than it is made. Just as records tend to stand way more often than they are broken.

Can Seattle win this game? Absolutely.

But only a homer would believe that they are totally immune to all of the factors that have caused so many previous teams in their position to fail.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not kill your buzz but that was 24 years ago not 34. But more importantly the pass statistics has absolutely no bearing on the future. All those numbers will mean absolutely nothing on when the clock starts running Sunday at 1:00. The better team will win. Period.

wait, wait WAIT!!!!!!!! if past (assuming you meant past, not pass) statistics have absolutely no bearing on the future, why is everyone so concerned with our 0-3 record in the playoffs, I mean as much emphasis as EVERY talking head is putting on that, it HAS to mean something doesn't it????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...