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Betting Against The Falcons In The Postseason?


cooperbh
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I'm sure we're all very, very familiar by now with that lame old argument as for why the Falcons will fail in the playoffs again this year. It basically goes, "The Falcons/Mike Smith/Matt Ryan have never won a playoff game. Therefore, the Falcons/Smith/Ryan won't win a playoff game this time around."

To that I can only say, "I see your measly 'never,' and raise you a dozen more."

Let's start with the team itself. Until now...

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason undefeated against winning teams. Most of the time, they haven't even had a winning record against such teams.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason with a defense that could hold QBs like Peyton & Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford to 258 YPG with just 5 TDs to 15 INTs and a combined passer rating of 69.5.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason with a QB who was top 5 in every major statistical category (wins, completions, completion %, yards, YPG, TDs, YPA, passer rating) and could carry a team without the benefit of a running game or an elite pass blocking unit.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason with Mike Nolan and Dirk Koetter on staff - coordinators who scheme to attack their opponents' weaknesses, as opposed to scheming solely to minimize the damage caused by their opponents' perceived strengths.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason having double-digit wins in four out of their last five seasons. Similarly, they have never gone into a postseason with a head coach who had just completed his 5th winning season in a row. More on the significance of these two factoids a bit later.

But what about the competition, you say? What if we have to face those oh-so-scary Seahawks or the always dangerous Redskins in the divisional round, both of which feature dynamic scrambling rookie QBs? Or what if we are tasked with shutting down the prolific Tony Romo or the suddenly viable Vikings? To that, I respond with...

-A starting rookie QB has never led a team to an NFC championship game. 'Nuff said.

-The Seahawks have never won a road playoff game since the opening of CenturyLink Field in 2002. In fact, they have won just one road playoff game in their entire franchise history - a victory over Miami way back in 1983. They have been 0 for their last 8 since then.

-Tony Romo has never won a road playoff game. And his 80.8 career postseason passer rating along with his 0-2 record in the divisional round hardly strikes fear.

-In order for the Vikings, Seahawks or Redskins to beat us in the divisional round and advance to an NFC championship game, they will have to win their sixth, seventh and ninth consecutive game respectively. In the 22 years since today's current playoff format was adopted in 1990, a team playing in the opening round of the playoffs has never accomplished that feat.

Oh, did I mention that the Seahawks and Redskins would each have to achieve this with a rookie starter at QB? Something that has also never happened in the NFC? Well, I'm sure it can't hurt to say it again (Nor does it hurt that it helps bring my "never" total to an even dozen.)

And finally, what does history say about our chances? Refer back to that info I posted earlier regarding our record over the last five seasons...

-There has never been a head coach with five straight winning seasons who failed to win a playoff game during his career. More on this here: http://boards.atlant...inning-seasons/

-There has never been a team having double-digit wins in four out of five seasons that failed to win a playoff game during that span. I'll just repeat that: There has never been a team having double-digit wins in four out of five seasons that failed to win a playoff game during that span.

I've stated many times going back to the offseason that the Falcons will win a playoff game this time around. I even bet my forum membership on it:

http://boards.atlant...5517-the-wager/

Now you know why. I don't gamble on longshots.

Anybody still betting against the Falcons in two weeks?

Edited by cooperbh
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Maybe it's not a great comparison, but from a mental aspect of the game, I've always felt like Ryan was similar to Peyton Manning. Taking a look at Manning career, he went to the playoffs 3 times in his first 5 seasons (Matt is 3 of 4). Both lost all 3 of their first 3 playoff games. Manning completed under 50% of his passes in those 3 playoff games. Ryan completed over 63%. Manning had 1 TD & 2 INTs, Ryan had 3 TDs & 4 INTs. Manning had a QB rating in the 50's, Matt's is better than a 71.

Manning's 4th playoff season, he gets 2 wins. Like all of the other playoff stats when you compare the two QBs, I expect Ryan to do better than Manning here as well. Matt picks up 3 postseason wins this year.

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I've always thought the same. Ryan and manning were always more comparable to me because they came in as rookies as the face of their franchises and had to go through growing pains to get to where they are. Same with Brees, he didn't do Jack for the first half of his career, yet people seem to forget that.

As opposed to a Brady and Rodgers who had the luxury to sit and learn and take over a team that was already complete and not rebuilding around them.

5 years from now we will look back on these days laughing that we ever questioned how great Ryan would become

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Defense is the reason I am confident this year. Ryan is having great year but even QB like Peyton Manning(1-4),Brady(1-5) and Eli (0-3) have poor record when their defense gave up 3 scores(21 pts) or more in the playoffs.

Agree that defense is the key to winning in the play-offs. Not defenses that put up impressive stats, but defenses that shut the opposing offense down in the critical situations during the game. The Falcons defense is masterful at this. Even if our offense was just average, which I think we all agree is certainly not the case, we could still feel really good about this team's chances to win in the post-season because of how much better this defense is than at any time since 2008. They will give this team a great chance to win even if the offense comes out a little out of sync.

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Great speech. And I agree with all of it.

But outside of the norm who was betting against the Falcons?

Here's the first article that comes up when you Google "falcons postseason."

http://www.cbssports...anta-just-waits

Worst-case scenario: The worst potential outcome as a result of Week 17 games is also the likeliest, assuming Seattle is the team Atlanta wants to avoid. If San Francisco beats Arizona, the Seahawks would play in the wild-card round as one of the bottom three seeds, and could conceivably meet Atlanta in the divisional round.

Behind potential rookie of the year Russell Wilson, the Seahawks have torched opponents 150-30 over the past three weeks. His mobility paired with power back Marshawn Lynch is exactly the type of team that could spoil another home playoff game for the Falcons.

So, a team with a rookie QB, that was 3-5 on the road this season, has a .375 road winning % under its current head coach and that hasn't won a road playoff game since before 'The Cosby Show' made its debut is somehow the "worst case scenario" for a team whose QB is 33-5 at home during his career?

If anyone has something to prove, it's Seattle. Yet the running narrative in the media has the Falcons as the hunted team fighting for credibility, praying for some imaginary "easy" matchup to get them over their playoff hump.

Personally, I hope to god we draw Seattle in the divisional round. Their jet-lagged azzes won't know what hit 'em.

Edited by cooperbh
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Here's the first article that comes up when you Google "falcons postseason."

http://www.cbssports...anta-just-waits

So, a team with a rookie QB, who was 3-5 on the road this season, has a .375 road winning % under its current head coach and who hasn't won a road playoff game since before 'The Cosby Show' made its debut is somehow the "worst case scenario" for a team whose QB is 33-5 at home during his career?

If anyone has something to prove, it's Seattle. Yet the running narrative in the media has the Falcons as the hunted team fighting for credibility, praying for some imaginary "easy" matchup to get them over their playoff hump.

Personally, I hope to god we draw Seattle in the divisional round. Their jet-lagged azz won't know what hit 'em.

I apologize. I was thinking you were directing that line at members of these boards. Sorry man.

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Both of my vegas bookies, and several high level underground gamblers, have all stated that there is only two teams in the league that they could actually make money off of betting against the Falcons in this post-season.

And, no Swift, neither one is Aaron Rodgers and the GB Packers.

The Falcons will be favored in every playoff game until the SB.

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Both of my vegas bookies, and several high level underground gamblers, have all stated that there is only two teams in the league that they could actually make money off of betting against the Falcons in this post-season.

And, no Swift, neither one is Aaron Rodgers and the GB Packers.

The Falcons will be favored in every playoff game until the SB.

Swift don't like our chances in the Wild Card round.

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I'm sure we're all very, very familiar by now with that lame old argument as for why the Falcons will fail in the playoffs again this year. It basically goes, "The Falcons/Mike Smith/Matt Ryan have never won a playoff game. Therefore, the Falcons/Smith/Ryan won't win a playoff game this time around."

To that I can only say, "I see your measly 'never,' and raise you ten more."

Let's start with the team itself...

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason undefeated against winning teams. Most of the time, they haven't even had a winning record against such teams.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason with a defense that could hold QBs like Peyton & Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford to 258 YPG with just 5 TDs to 15 INTs and a combined passer rating of 69.5.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason with a QB who was top 5 in every major statistical category (wins, completions, completion %, yards, YPG, TDs, YPA, passer rating) and could carry a team without the benefit of a running game or an elite pass blocking unit.

-The Falcons have never gone into a postseason with Mike Nolan and Dirk Koetter on staff - coordinators who scheme to attack their opponents' weaknesses, as opposed to scheming solely to minimize the damage caused by their opponents' perceived strengths.

The Falcons have never gone into a postseason having double-digit wins in four out of their last five seasons. Similarly, they have never gone into a postseason with a head coach who had just completed his 5th winning season in a row. More on the significance of these two factoids a bit later.

But what about the competition, you say? What if we have to face those oh-so-scary Seahawks or the always dangerous Redskins in the divisional round, both of which feature dynamic scrambling rookie QBs? Or what if we are tasked with shutting down the prolific Tony Romo? To that, I respond with...

-A starting rookie QB has never led a team to an NFC championship game. 'Nuff said.

-The Seahawks have never won a road playoff game since the opening of CenturyLink Field in 2002. In fact, they have won just one road playoff game in their entire franchise history - a victory over Miami way back in 1983. They have been 0 for their last 8 since then.

Tony Romo has never won a road playoff game. And his 80.8 career postseason passer rating along with his 0-2 record in the divisional round hardly strikes fear.

And finally, what does history say about our chances? Refer back to that info I posted earlier regarding our record over the last five seasons...

-There has never been a head coach with five straight winning seasons who failed to win a playoff game during his career. More on this here: http://boards.atlant...inning-seasons/

-There has never been a team having double-digit wins in four out of five seasons that failed to win a playoff game during that span. I'll just repeat that: There has never been a team having double-digit wins in four out of five seasons that failed to win a playoff game during that span.

I've stated many times going back to the offseason that the Falcons will win a playoff game this time around. I even bet my forum membership on it:

http://boards.atlant...5517-the-wager/

Now you know why. I don't gamble on longshots.

Anybody still betting against the Falcons in two weeks?

Wow I actually feel better about a chances :)

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if we score 24 points against seattle they cant win, if we come out and try to run and play like MM did, then the game will be close and we would probably lose. Get the rookie qb throwing on us to there nobody squad of wideouts and its a blowout

I don't think Seattle's defense will allow a true blowout. I do think we can win by a comfortable 10 points if we can hang 24 on them, though.

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