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Espn Playoff Machine.. If Falcons Can Beat Panthers And Packers/bears Lose At Least Once...


g-dawg
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http://espn.go.com/n...layoffs/machine

then Falcons should be able to get homefield advantage all the way through the playoffs even if we dropped the last three games.

I went to playoff machine and simulated Falcons beating Panties and losing to Giants/Lions/Bucs in final three. I made it where Bears/Packers/Giants/Niners won all their remaining games - except when Bears/Packers played, I made Packers the winner (but its the same whether Packers or Bears win - both have tiebreakers over Falcons).

In this scenario, both Falcons/Packers end up w/ 12-4 record and Packers must have some tie-breaker advantage. If Bears win that game, then they would be 12-4 and have tiebreaker advantage.

If Falcons win 2 more games, then they have homefield advantage - PERIOD. I feel confident Falcons will win at least 2 out of next 4.....hopefully 2 out of next 3 and then we could rest key players in home game versus Bucs.

If Falcons only win one more game, then we would need Packers/Bears to both lose at least one more game for Falcons to get homefield throughout playoffs.

One more win(i.e. - Panthers) clinches a first round bye.....

Two more wins clinches homefield throughout playoffs....

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Take a look at this site which assigns probabilities to all outcomes:

http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NFL.html

They estimate a 97% chance of 1st seed and 3% for a 2nd seed and virtually guaranteed first round bye.

we must win one more game to be assured of 1st round bye (#2 seed).

we must win two more games to be assured of #1 seed.

of course as other contending teams lose(Packers/Bears/Niners), then our margin for error could get easier.

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we must win one more game to be assured of 1st round bye.

we must win two more games to be assured of #2 seed.

of course as other contending teams lose(Packers/Bears/Niners), then our margin for error could get easier.

No. If we win two we ARE the number one seed. Sanfran is 8-3 ... And one. The most wins they can have is 12. We would have thirteen. Every other NFC team has at least four losses. If we beat the panthers and lions its game over.

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No. If we win two we ARE the number one seed. Sanfran is 8-3 ... And one. The most wins they can have is 12. We would have thirteen. Every other NFC team has at least four losses. If we beat the panthers and lions its game over.

that is what i meant to say. typo - i will fix.

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Niners have two tough road games @ Seattle and @ New England. I am assuming Niners lose one of those games - probably Patriots game.

I just can't wait until tomorrow to hear why the Niners lost the game not how the Rams won it.

But yea I saw this one and the Pats game as losses. The Niners aren't as tough. They hit hard, but if you can weather the intimidation factor and get a lead on them, they struggle to come back. The thing you need to beat the Niners is a good secondary. They like to run the ball, but that only works with a lead. Get a lead and you can clamp their receiving options down. Their QBs aren't good.

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