g-dawg Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 http://espn.go.com/n...layoffs/machinethen Falcons should be able to get homefield advantage all the way through the playoffs even if we dropped the last three games.I went to playoff machine and simulated Falcons beating Panties and losing to Giants/Lions/Bucs in final three. I made it where Bears/Packers/Giants/Niners won all their remaining games - except when Bears/Packers played, I made Packers the winner (but its the same whether Packers or Bears win - both have tiebreakers over Falcons). In this scenario, both Falcons/Packers end up w/ 12-4 record and Packers must have some tie-breaker advantage. If Bears win that game, then they would be 12-4 and have tiebreaker advantage.If Falcons win 2 more games, then they have homefield advantage - PERIOD. I feel confident Falcons will win at least 2 out of next 4.....hopefully 2 out of next 3 and then we could rest key players in home game versus Bucs.If Falcons only win one more game, then we would need Packers/Bears to both lose at least one more game for Falcons to get homefield throughout playoffs.One more win(i.e. - Panthers) clinches a first round bye.....Two more wins clinches homefield throughout playoffs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmo_dlo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Take a look at this site which assigns probabilities to all outcomes:http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.htmlThey estimate a 97% chance of 1st seed and 3% for a 2nd seed and virtually guaranteed first round bye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g-dawg Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Take a look at this site which assigns probabilities to all outcomes:http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NFL.htmlThey estimate a 97% chance of 1st seed and 3% for a 2nd seed and virtually guaranteed first round bye.we must win one more game to be assured of 1st round bye (#2 seed).we must win two more games to be assured of #1 seed.of course as other contending teams lose(Packers/Bears/Niners), then our margin for error could get easier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chifalc Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 we must win one more game to be assured of 1st round bye. we must win two more games to be assured of #2 seed.of course as other contending teams lose(Packers/Bears/Niners), then our margin for error could get easier.No. If we win two we ARE the number one seed. Sanfran is 8-3 ... And one. The most wins they can have is 12. We would have thirteen. Every other NFC team has at least four losses. If we beat the panthers and lions its game over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MilleniumFalcon Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 49ers would be #1 in that scenario at 12-3-1, which is better than 12-4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chifalc Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 We have 11 wins. Two more wins gives us thirteen not twelve ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g-dawg Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 No. If we win two we ARE the number one seed. Sanfran is 8-3 ... And one. The most wins they can have is 12. We would have thirteen. Every other NFC team has at least four losses. If we beat the panthers and lions its game over.that is what i meant to say. typo - i will fix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chifalc Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 that is what i meant to say. typo - i will fix.Thought it probably was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quarterback Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Take a look at this site which assigns probabilities to all outcomes:http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NFL.htmlThey estimate a 97% chance of 1st seed and 3% for a 2nd seed and virtually guaranteed first round bye.Nice!Now, for strickly entertainment purposes only, click on the New Orlean Saints and check out their probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g-dawg Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Niners have two tough road games @ Seattle and @ New England. I am assuming Niners lose one of those games - probably Patriots game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chifalc Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Cleveland and Tennessee still technically have playoff scenarios??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuggle'2 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I was curious the exact scenario we needed to have happen. Thanks g-dawg. It will make it even easier then it already is to hate on the Bears / Packers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chifalc Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I was curious the exact scenario we needed to have happen. Thanks g-dawg. It will make it even easier then it already is to hate on the Bears / Packers.Lets just win the next two and ignore the last two games for those teams ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuggle'2 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Lets just win the next two and ignore the last two games for those teams ...Id be happy to win out. I think we lose to the Bucs though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownvoteDon Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Nice!Now, for strickly entertainment purposes only, click on the New Orlean Saints and check out their probabilities. I did, and it keeps coming up with (I'm sorry, that never gets old) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vel Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Niners have two tough road games @ Seattle and @ New England. I am assuming Niners lose one of those games - probably Patriots game.I just can't wait until tomorrow to hear why the Niners lost the game not how the Rams won it. But yea I saw this one and the Pats game as losses. The Niners aren't as tough. They hit hard, but if you can weather the intimidation factor and get a lead on them, they struggle to come back. The thing you need to beat the Niners is a good secondary. They like to run the ball, but that only works with a lead. Get a lead and you can clamp their receiving options down. Their QBs aren't good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chifalc Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Id be happy to win out. I think we lose to the Bucs though.With Luke mcCown starting plausible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.