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Official 2012 Presidential Ev Prediction Thread


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I hate to show my incompetence, but I can never post these maps. What is the ridiculously easy trick that I am missing?

Go to a site like 270towin.com,

Use the 'Snipping tool' on Windows 7 to crop part of your desktop into an image, and save the image to your computer. Upload said image to imgur.com, or something similar. Copy-paste the link into the image tool in your reply menu.

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This one looks about right to me, though I think Romney has a real shot at taking NH. Ohio or Wisconsin is what he needs, and I'll be surprised if those turn before election day. Both are within the margin of error -- barely.

Trends seem to be showing that Obama has momentum in New Hampshire, but it's such a slim lead that I wouldn't be at all surprised if Romney won the state.

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I'm not going to do the map. I did it in a different thread, can't remember which one. I am sure that we all did that already.

But anyway, I think Romney is going to win. I think he'll win NC, VA, and FL for sure, and probably win Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and I think he has a chance to win Wisconsin and or Minnesota. I doubt he has any real chance at MI or Penn.

My opinion is completely shaped by my bias I am sure, but it just seems to me that the people who are against President Obama are a lot more motivated to get him out of office than his supporters are to keep him in office.

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I'm not going to do the map. I did it in a different thread, can't remember which one. I am sure that we all did that already.

But anyway, I think Romney is going to win. I think he'll win NC, VA, and FL for sure, and probably win Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and I think he has a chance to win Wisconsin and or Minnesota. I doubt he has any real chance at MI or Penn.

My opinion is completely shaped by my bias I am sure, but it just seems to me that the people who are against President Obama are a lot more motivated to get him out of office than his supporters are to keep him in office.

So this?

x4TzY.png

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How do you post the map from 270towin?

I looked at the polling averages from Pollster.com and based on that, I give Obama the following states:

Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Ohio. The last two are actually closer than I'm comfortable in terms of making a hard prediction, but right now the polling is more favorable to Obama than Romney.

I give Romney the following:

North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. The last two states both have Romney ahead AND are trending in his direction.

That makes the EC:

290 Obama

248 Romney

If you flip Ohio and New Hampshire, that gives Romney 270 to Obama's 268. If Obama takes Florida then I don't see how Romney possibly wins.

Colorado is also very, very close, though there hasn't been movement in Romney's direction yet. Only two of the past ten polls have Romney ahead and another has it tied, so 7/10 polls have an Obama lead. Nonetheless, I still call this one as a tossup.

All of that is to say, it's still way to close to call one way or the other.

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Ya I had a hard time with that one. PA could go either way I think. It's Obama's state to lose of course but his war on coal has really hurt him there.

I think Romney will swipe at least one of NV, PA, MI, or MN. I chose PA because of the coal thing.

Election night will be fun when we all get to come back and laugh at all of your bluster about a Romney landslide victory.

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Election night will be fun when we all get to come back and laugh at all of your bluster about a Romney landslide victory.

I will have a big chuckle and glass of wine, when Ohio is given to Romney and I turn on MSNBC and they are blue in the face. I'll get even a bigger grin when they announce ITS OVER. I'll think abt you in that moment, the polls, exit polls, and say again. What BS.
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I will have a big chuckle and glass of wine, when Ohio is given to Romney and I turn on MSNBC and they are blue in the face. I'll get even a bigger grin when they announce ITS OVER. I'll think abt you in that moment, the polls, exit polls, and say again. What BS.

I never said that Romney wouldn't win Ohio. That is very possible, and its very possible he can win the election. What is not going to happen is Romney winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan and all of those other states in some kind of landslide victory.

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BTW - I never said it would be a "landslide victory". I said it would be a decisive victory. That means by the end of election night there will be no doubt who the president-elect is. It will not come down to 1 state.

The electoral college map you posted is a landslide. You think that Romney is going to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan and all of the other lean democratic states. That would be a landslide. And I'm going to have fun laughing at you when the actual results are much closer and all of that bluster of yours proves to be wrong once again.

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