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Relativity Rankings: Through Week 8


Kayoh
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Formula:

(Team's Winning PCT)(Opp Win PCT vs. Rest of League)(10000) + Point Differential

============== W E E K _ 8 ================

1. Houston Texans - 4658.7

2. San Fransisco 49ers - 4391.6

3. Atlanta Falcons - 4257.0

4. Chicago Bears - 3785.7

5. Denver Broncos - 3637.3

6. Green Bay Packers - 3591.9

7. New York Giants - 3308.3

8. New England Patriots - 3158.0

9. Baltimore Ravens - 2907.6

10. Minnesota Vikings - 2901.6

11. Miami Dolphins - 2754.9

12. Indianapolis Colts - 2637.8

13. Dallas Cowboys - 2549.0

14. Arizona Cardinals - 2540.6

15. Philadelphia Eagles - 2539.0

16. Seattle Seahawks - 2458.8

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - 2433.9

18. Detroit Lions - 2360.2

19. New York Jets - 2293.0

20. Washington Redskins - 2044.8

21. St. Louis Rams - 2002.9

22. Oakland Raiders - 1994.9

23. Tennessee Titans - 1963.8

24. Buffalo Bills - 1731.5

25. San Diego Chargers - 1706.0

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1651.7

27. Cincinnati Bengals - 1599.7

28. Cleveland Browns - 1192.5

29. New Orleans Saints - 990.9

30. Carolina Panthers - 773.5

31. Jacksonville Jaguars - 773.0

32. Kansas City Chiefs - 592.0

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Bump. I finally get my formula down to a science and nobody replies to me.

Is it because Atlanta isn't #1? Because in my heart, I believe they are, the numbers just say otherwise. tongue.png

It shows a real flaw with your system if one team has done everything they can do, and they are behind a team that hasn't done everything they can do.

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No offense but...

How is this science? haha

How did you arrive at this empirical constant of 10,000? (Should be lower because.....)

I feel like point differential is being undervalued in this formula...

In reality you should increase your constant every week to account for more games of point differential being recorded.

How did you decide to multiply the winning percentages instead of adding them? You've come up with a meaningless number...

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I don't understand this. I didn't last time and I still don't understand this now. I know I'm stupid when it comes to math but dayum!

Here is how his system works, minus the margin of victory bit:

Falcons 1.000 * .4186 *10,000= 4186

Texans .857 * .5333 * 10,000= 4570 (I think he has made a miscalculation on the Texans)

4570-4186 = 384

Even using my numbers, which are more in favor for the Falcons than his, the Falcons would have a 385 point advantage in scoring differential to be ahead of the Texans using his calculations.

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The only team in the top half of the NFL's League standings that have had a weaker schedule than us so far is Baltimore. Our opponents are 18-25 against the rest of the NFL. Houston's are 25-21 against the rest of the league. San Fransisco's are 31-23.

The whole point of my formula is to emphasize the Strength of Schedule (hence the 10,000) and make point differential irrelevant unless two teams have such similar SoS that it becomes the proverbial tie breaker.

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The only team in the top half of the NFL's League standings that have had a weaker schedule than us so far is Baltimore. Our opponents are 18-25 against the rest of the NFL. Houston's are 25-21 against the rest of the league. San Fransisco's are 31-23.

The whole point of my formula is to emphasize the Strength of Schedule (hence the 10,000) and make point differential irrelevant unless two teams have such similar SoS that it becomes the proverbial tie breaker.

If a team can't get to the top of your rankings even if they are winning every game 70-0, your formula isn't working.

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Ah, thank you. I found my screw up, I had them playing New England instead of Denver.

No Problem. By the way, I'm not trying to be a d*ck (it just comes natural).

I love stats, I just think this one needs some more tweaking if you are going to do it.

The goal is to identify the best team, and maybe your system has really done that, but in your system, there would be zero chance for the Falcons to have be the best team right now, regardless of the level they had performed at.

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The only team in the top half of the NFL's League standings that have had a weaker schedule than us so far is Baltimore. Our opponents are 18-25 against the rest of the NFL. Houston's are 25-21 against the rest of the league. San Fransisco's are 31-23.

The whole point of my formula is to emphasize the Strength of Schedule (hence the 10,000) and make point differential irrelevant unless two teams have such similar SoS that it becomes the proverbial tie breaker.

But point differential should matter. And as Peyton said, if the Falcons have to win every game 78-0 just to be number 1 there is something wrong.

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Somebody else recommended multiplying point differential by # of games played so that it has more of an impact. If I do that, the top 10 is the same except for the Vikings & Ravens getting switched, but then there's a bigger shakeup in the middle. Actually, it looks better as far as the eye test goes with the Steelers, Seahawks and Bengals moving up and the Cardinals & Colts moving down.

Using a tweaked formula: (Team's Winning PCT)(Opp Win PCT vs. Rest of League)(10000) + (Point Differential)(Games Played)

1. Houston Texans - 5187.4

2. San Fransisco 49ers - 4993.6

3. Atlanta Falcons - 4683.0

4. Chicago Bears - 4296.3

5. Denver Broncos - 3952.0

6. Green Bay Packers - 3857.9

7. New York Giants - 3819.3

8. New England Patriots - 3802.0

9. Minnesota Vikings - 3020.6

10. Baltimore Ravens - 2986.8

11. Miami Dolphins - 2900.9

12. Pittsburgh Steelers - 2573.7

13. Seattle Seahawks - 2500.8

14. Arizona Cardinals - 2435.6

15. Indianapolis Colts - 2429.8

16. Dallas Cowboys - 2396.4

17. Philadelphia Eagles - 2326.4

18. Detroit Lions - 2279.8

19. New York Jets - 2069.0

20. Washington Redskins - 1946.8

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1836.0

22. San Diego Chargers - 1764.4

23. Oakland Raiders - 1704.8

24. St. Louis Rams - 1659.9

25. Cincinnati Bengals - 1472.0

26. Buffalo Bills - 1393.7

27. Tennessee Titans - 1298.8

28. Cleveland Browns - 968.5

29. New Orleans Saints - 833.9

30. Carolina Panthers - 538.7

31. Jacksonville Jaguars - 262.1

32. Kansas City Chiefs - 57.3

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