Jump to content

Ryan's Fourth Quarter/overtime Comeback Numbers And Time Of Possession . . .


HolyMoses
 Share

Recommended Posts

For this stage of his career, Ryan has more comebacks than any other quarterback in the history of the NFL. (At least I think I heard that stat recently . . . )

I would love to see the average time of possession, Falcons v. Opponents, at the beginning of those game winning drives.

Yesterday was a pretty good example of what I would expect to find. It was somewhat of a back and forth game with one Falcon turnover after a decent length drive (the fumble) one interception for a touchdown, and one Redskin touchdown on a huge play on a very short drive. On both of the Redksins' touchdowns, I said to my son "That's not the worst thing that could happen."

Of course, you don't want to be giving up pick sixes and big plays, but if the other team is going to score, quick scores or defensive TD's can, to a certain extent, "pay dividends" towards the end of the game. Those big plays and short drives put that team's defense back on the field with little recovery. Going into the fourth quarter, the Falcons already had a healthy T.O.P. advantage. Defenses generally wear down towards the end of a game. At the BEGINNING of the final touchdown drive, the Redskin defense had already been on the field for more than 33 minutes . . . 10% more than a complete game.

Historically under Mike Smith, the Falcons have dominated time of possession. When your team can start a late drive when the defense has already essentially played MORE than a complete game, that is going to drastically improve your chances of success.

This is not to take anything away from Ryan. He has proven to have an uncanny ability to take advantage of the opportunities presented to him. He is also an integral part of the execution to get to the T.O.P. advantage in the first place.

Eighteen Game Winning Drives!

But some credit needs to go the Coach Smith, and the coordinators (even Mullarky) for game planning and management in a way that controls time of possession.

EDIT (Thanks to Tandy!) There actually appears to be either no correlation, or a NEGATIVE correlation between Ryan's comebacks and time of possession. In a vast majority of the comebacks, the Falcons have been losing the time of possession battle or there was not a meaningful disparity. Turns out most of his comebacks have been against FRESHER defenses. Maybe there's something to the Matty "ICE" thing after all!

Edited by holymoses
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2008: Chicago - Total Time of Possession 30:50, Previous drive by opponent 2:32

Ryan got the ball with 6 seconds left on the Atl 44 yard line.

2008: Rams - Total Time of Possession = 24:47, Previous drive by opponent 3:16

Ryan got the ball with 6:39 left on the Atl 20

2009: NYJ - Total Time of Possession = 29:36, Previous drive by opponent 6:43

Ryan got the ball with 4:27 left on the Atl 27

2010: NOR - Total Time of Possession = 45:50, Previous drive by opponent 4:25

Ryan got the ball with 8:57 left (OT) on the Atl 20 but a holding penalty moved us to the Atl 10 with a 1st and 20

2010: SF - Total Time of Possession = 29:19, Previous drive by opponent 6:40

Ryan got the ball with 3:40 left on the Atl 8, drove it to Atl 46 - threw int - got ball back with 1:22 left on the Atl 7

2010: CIN - Total Time of Possession = 29:38, Previous drive by opponent 3:00

Ryan got the ball with 1:33 left on the Cin 36

2010: BAL - Total Time of Possession = 35:09, Previous drive by opponent 1:52

Ryan got the ball with 1:05 left on the Atl 20

2010: TAM - Total Time of Possession = 28:00, Previous drive by opponent 3:41

Ryan got the ball with 8:33 left on the Atl 33

2011: PHI - Total Time of Possession = 29:57, Previous drive by opponent 2:25

Ryan got the ball with 8:12 left on the Atl 20

2011: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 30:34, Previous drive by opponent 1:37

Ryan got the ball with 12:25 left on the Atl 40

2011: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 30:43, Previous drive by opponent 4:02

Ryan got the ball with 5:12 left on the Atl 26

2012: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 29:54, Previous drive by opponent 1:17

Ryan got the ball with 0:59 left on the Atl 1

2012: WAS - Total Time of Possession = 37:01, Previous drive by opponent 1:45

Ryan got the ball with 5:40 left on the Atl 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2008: Chicago - Total Time of Possession 30:50, Previous drive by opponent 2:32

Ryan got the ball with 6 seconds left on the Atl 44 yard line.

2008: Rams - Total Time of Possession = 24:47, Previous drive by opponent 3:16

Ryan got the ball with 6:39 left on the Atl 20

2009: NYJ - Total Time of Possession = 29:36, Previous drive by opponent 6:43

Ryan got the ball with 4:27 left on the Atl 27

2010: NOR - Total Time of Possession = 45:50, Previous drive by opponent 4:25

Ryan got the ball with 8:57 left (OT) on the Atl 20 but a holding penalty moved us to the Atl 10 with a 1st and 20

2010: SF - Total Time of Possession = 29:19, Previous drive by opponent 6:40

Ryan got the ball with 3:40 left on the Atl 8, drove it to Atl 46 - threw int - got ball back with 1:22 left on the Atl 7

2010: CIN - Total Time of Possession = 29:38, Previous drive by opponent 3:00

Ryan got the ball with 1:33 left on the Cin 36

2010: BAL - Total Time of Possession = 35:09, Previous drive by opponent 1:52

Ryan got the ball with 1:05 left on the Atl 20

2010: TAM - Total Time of Possession = 28:00, Previous drive by opponent 3:41

Ryan got the ball with 8:33 left on the Atl 33

2011: PHI - Total Time of Possession = 29:57, Previous drive by opponent 2:25

Ryan got the ball with 8:12 left on the Atl 20

2011: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 30:34, Previous drive by opponent 1:37

Ryan got the ball with 12:25 left on the Atl 40

2011: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 30:43, Previous drive by opponent 4:02

Ryan got the ball with 5:12 left on the Atl 26

2012: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 29:54, Previous drive by opponent 1:17

Ryan got the ball with 0:59 left on the Atl 1

2012: WAS - Total Time of Possession = 37:01, Previous drive by opponent 1:45

Ryan got the ball with 5:40 left on the Atl 31

Just amazing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2008: Chicago - Total Time of Possession 30:50, Previous drive by opponent 2:32

Ryan got the ball with 6 seconds left on the Atl 44 yard line.

2008: Rams - Total Time of Possession = 24:47, Previous drive by opponent 3:16

Ryan got the ball with 6:39 left on the Atl 20

2009: NYJ - Total Time of Possession = 29:36, Previous drive by opponent 6:43

Ryan got the ball with 4:27 left on the Atl 27

2010: NOR - Total Time of Possession = 45:50, Previous drive by opponent 4:25

Ryan got the ball with 8:57 left (OT) on the Atl 20 but a holding penalty moved us to the Atl 10 with a 1st and 20

2010: SF - Total Time of Possession = 29:19, Previous drive by opponent 6:40

Ryan got the ball with 3:40 left on the Atl 8, drove it to Atl 46 - threw int - got ball back with 1:22 left on the Atl 7

2010: CIN - Total Time of Possession = 29:38, Previous drive by opponent 3:00

Ryan got the ball with 1:33 left on the Cin 36

2010: BAL - Total Time of Possession = 35:09, Previous drive by opponent 1:52

Ryan got the ball with 1:05 left on the Atl 20

2010: TAM - Total Time of Possession = 28:00, Previous drive by opponent 3:41

Ryan got the ball with 8:33 left on the Atl 33

2011: PHI - Total Time of Possession = 29:57, Previous drive by opponent 2:25

Ryan got the ball with 8:12 left on the Atl 20

2011: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 30:34, Previous drive by opponent 1:37

Ryan got the ball with 12:25 left on the Atl 40

2011: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 30:43, Previous drive by opponent 4:02

Ryan got the ball with 5:12 left on the Atl 26

2012: CAR - Total Time of Possession = 29:54, Previous drive by opponent 1:17

Ryan got the ball with 0:59 left on the Atl 1

2012: WAS - Total Time of Possession = 37:01, Previous drive by opponent 1:45

Ryan got the ball with 5:40 left on the Atl 31

Yep . . . Good stuff Tandy. Apparently, I'm completely, or almost completely wrong in my hypothesis!

You did include the Ravens game from 2010 that had the completely crazy finish. The Falcons had a ten minute TOP advantage in that one.

But that was the last Game Winning Drive scenario (before this weekend) in which there was a significant time of possession disparity going into a Ryan comeback.

Apparently, most of the time when we dominate time of possession, we don't NEED late game heroics!

Edited by holymoses
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep . . . Good stuff Tandy. Apparently, I'm completely, or almost completely wrong in my hypothesis!

You did include the Ravens game from 2010 that had the completely crazy finish. The Falcons had a ten minute TOP advantage in that one.

But that was the last Game Winning Drive scenario (before this weekend) in which there was a significant time of possession disparity going into a Ryan comeback.

Apparently, most of the time when we dominate time of possession, we don't NEED late game heroics!

Well, certainly the defense is tired in any game on those last minute drives. You are also right that our Coaches and Coordinators contribute. I think we can put some loving on Turner too - he's beaten up quite a few defenses before we need to mow them down to get ahead.

Nearly every player on our offense has contributed largely to those wins when they are needed. Roddy knocking the ball out after the interception by SF for instance. The amazing catch by Jenkins (actually, I can think of at least 2 of those - the fingertip catch was another amazing catch) in the Bears game.

Ryan will be the first one to tell you - it's a team effort through and through. But, he's the leader - and they believe in him. They believe he will take them down for the win - and that is a big reason why it works.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I keep wondering about the last drive against Carolina. Other than hearing that it hasn't been done in 20 years I'd be interested to know the particulars of when it was done. Did that QB have more time? Where did he actually start? Did he have any timeouts remaining?

That is why I really hate the media at times. Over and over I watched Cutler walk away from his OC like it was a big deal and our QB did something that no other active QB has done and it gets glossed over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, certainly the defense is tired in any game on those last minute drives. You are also right that our Coaches and Coordinators contribute. I think we can put some loving on Turner too - he's beaten up quite a few defenses before we need to mow them down to get ahead.

Nearly every player on our offense has contributed largely to those wins when they are needed. Roddy knocking the ball out after the interception by SF for instance. The amazing catch by Jenkins (actually, I can think of at least 2 of those - the fingertip catch was another amazing catch) in the Bears game.

Ryan will be the first one to tell you - it's a team effort through and through. But, he's the leader - and they believe in him. They believe he will take them down for the win - and that is a big reason why it works.

Its the belief that Ryan can win the game in clutch helps both the offense and defense. John Abraham said it the best, he said the D was tired against CAR but they wanted to get a stop to put the ball in Ryan's hand. Again Abraham knocked the ball out of Cam Newton and he might be just making it sound as a team effort but the belief is what can get a team going.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...