Falcons 3Rd Down Defense Still A Problem

[Falconsfan567]

I was just looking at some numbers and came across that the Falcons 3rd down defense is still a problem. Opponents have faced 3rd down against the Falcons 39 times and have gotten 20 first downs. That's a 51% conversion rate. That's the 2nd worst in the NFL. The only defense that is worst is the Jets at 56% conversion rate.

So while our defense has seen major improvement there is still much room for more improvement.

[TeamPlayer1]

If the Falcons were better on 3rd down maybe we would have a better record. jk

[Dharma Initiative]

How much of that came in the first half against KC though? It seemed like we kept giving it up to them, but it hasn't stood out in the other two games

[Markieh18]

lets get some stats on third and distances??

imo the sample rate is too small to make a proclamation on how good or bad the 3rd down defense is. I know the takeaway defense has been excellent-I'll take it.

[Mid-Nite-Toker]

I was just looking at some numbers and came across that the Falcons 3rd down defense is still a problem. Opponents have faced 3rd down against the Falcons 39 times and have gotten 20 first downs. That's a 51% conversion rate. That's the 2nd worst in the NFL. The only defense that is worst is the Jets at 56% conversion rate.

So while our defense has seen major improvement there is still much room for more improvement.

We are tougher against the pass than run now...just switched strengths.

We've always been good at getting t/o...not surprised 3rd dwn% has not improved much.

[falcons007]

How much of that came in the first half against KC though? It seemed like we kept giving it up to them, but it hasn't stood out in the other two games

First half against KC and in 4th qtr against Broncos when the D was gassed out. It would be helpful if there is a breakdown based on score difference. How many of these third down conversions came when Falcons were up by 20 and how many when the game was close.

[ATL Fan in the DMV]

Definitely can't allow that trend to continue throughout the season. We have been bailed out by a lot of turnovers on earlier downs.

As our defense matures under Nolan, and natural regression to take place, I do expect us to start doing better defensively on 3rd down.

[ATLBrave]

We've been much better since the 1st half of the Chiefs' game. They started out 5/6 on 3rd downs, and since, we've held all teams to 13/31, which comes to 42%. Not including the Chiefs game, we've held our other opponents to 9/23, coming to 39%.

Edit: And 3 of the Chiefs' third down conversions in the 2nd half came on the last drive with some of our starters out.

[Falconsfan567]

We've been much better since the 1st half of the Chiefs' game. They started out 5/6 on 3rd downs, and since, we've held all teams to 13/31, which comes to 42%. Not including the Chiefs game, we've held our other opponents to 9/23, coming to 39%.

Edit: And 3 of the Chiefs' third down conversions in the 2nd half came on the last drive with some of our starters out.

Thanks for the breakdown. It just really surprised me when I saw the numbers because watching the games I swore we had done much better.

[ATLBrave]

Thanks for the breakdown. It just really surprised me when I saw the numbers because watching the games I swore we had done much better.

Yep. Knew we had done much better since the beginning of that game. Don't know where those numbers would rank though.

[JC Falcon]

Add in the 8? turnovers to end drives, some of which did not occur on 3rd down. makes the 3d conversion rate seem higher with a small sample size.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Falcohol

[TheFatboi]

Thanks for the breakdown. It just really surprised me when I saw the numbers because watching the games I swore we had done much better.

I looked at that number monday and was alarmed for a sec but then I thought the first game kinda skewed the numbers. We've been getting better and better each week.

[BadBrucey]

turnovers have been the trump card by far(thus far) it's hard to gameplan the prevention of turnovers and the way our Defense is cranking them out....I'm not to worried and i'm sure smitty will address this with nolan anyway

[jbird84]

Stats do not always tell the story I'm willing to bet like some others have said that alot of those came from 4thQ Denver, and 1st half KC. Truth is I've seen the defense improve in each week. One thing we're definatley doing right is winning the turnover battle, when you get takeaways like we have then you break the opponents back there is no fight left. Look at San Diego and Kansas City in the later portions of those games you could tell those teams just wanted the game to end they couldn't win their collective backs were broken. We're still in the early portion of the season and we will continually improve week-to-week count on it.

[Ethos]

I keep forgetting that some of y'all live or die by stats...

[atlbaby]

How much of that came in the first half against KC though? It seemed like we kept giving it up to them, but it hasn't stood out in the other two games

Exactly

[Peyton]

I was just looking at some numbers and came across that the Falcons 3rd down defense is still a problem. Opponents have faced 3rd down against the Falcons 39 times and have gotten 20 first downs. That's a 51% conversion rate. That's the 2nd worst in the NFL. The only defense that is worst is the Jets at 56% conversion rate.

So while our defense has seen major improvement there is still much room for more improvement.

Yeah but the Chiefs were 11 for 16. That means the last two teams have been 9 for 23. That's a good number.

[Falconsfan567]

Yeah but the Chiefs were 11 for 16. That means the last two teams have been 9 for 23. That's a good number.

Correct. ATLBrave posted the breakdown.

This isn't directed at you Peyton, but do people not read the entire thread? Or do they just read the first post not knowing much of what they're saying has already been brought up and discussed?

[jdawg4876]

Correct. ATLBrave posted the breakdown.

This isn't directed at you Peyton, but do people not read the entire thread? Or do they just read the first post not knowing much of what they're saying has already been brought up and discussed?

just speaking for myself

If its a new thread I read every post but if it has reached the 30 page like most matt ryan threads I lose focus lol.

[Bundini Brown]

some people were saying "this defense wont mesh until mid-way thru the season". i guess now we finally have something to "mesh" on... because everything else (aside from run D) has been "meshed" on

[Falconsfan567]

just speaking for myself

If its a new thread I read every post but if it has reached the 30 page like most matt ryan threads I lose focus lol.

Agreed. But there was only a few posts in this thread. Not hard to read all of them.

[Finally]

And next week we could be one of the best 3rd down defense. That is the problem with focusing on stats and rankings this early in the season.

Let's look at the math:

A season is 16 games long. 100/16 = 6.25

We have 3 games of total data. 6.25x3 = 18.75

Next week we will add another 6.25 but since there are only 4 weeks worth of totals so far it is adding 25 percent more data to the totals which could create major swings in stats and rankings.

[Tandy]

Yeah, they struggled in the first game, but I was actually thinking how great they've been on 3rd down conversions since. When you consider that we faced Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers - two of the top QBs in 3rd down conversions, it's even more impressive.

San Diego finished the season last year 2nd only to New Orleans in 3rd down conversions and regularly finishes at the top. Peyton Manning regularly finished in the top 5 - many times 1st in that category.

I know someone broke down the differences - but I just wanted to point out just how strong we've been against 2 of the leagues best at 3rd down conversions. It's impressive.

[Falconsfan567]

And next week we could be one of the best 3rd down defense. That is the problem with focusing on stats and rankings this early in the season.

Let's look at the math:

A season is 16 games long. 100/16 = 6.25

We have 3 games of total data. 6.25x3 = 18.75

Next week we will add another 6.25 but since there are only 4 weeks worth of totals so far it is adding 25 percent more data to the totals which could create major swings in stats and rankings.

Look. I was looking at the numbers and this just popped out at me and didn't jive with what I saw watching the games. I wasn't harping on it. Just posted it.

[Finally]

Look. I was looking at the numbers and this just popped out at me and didn't jive with what I saw watching the games. I wasn't harping on it. Just posted it.

Re-read your first post. You were clearly being critical. Others mentioned sample size so I thought I'd explain it with math.