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Julio Was Worth The Price - No Question - What Might Falcons Have Taken Instead?


g-dawg
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At first blush, I was against the move last year to trade up and get Julio. I felt like we gave up a little too much. I thought the 1st, 2nd and 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2012 was about right - felt like giving up the 2012 4th rounder was a little overkill - having said that, the difference in kicking in the extra 4th rounder is not HUGE.

One thing others do when analyzing this trade is look at the players the Browns drafted with the Falcons draft picks - this seems silly to me though because the Falcons would have drafted different players in those spots.

The only player we know for certain the Falcons would have drafted would have been the Wisconsin Offensive Tackle - Gabe Carimi (who was ultimately selected by the Bears at #26 overall last year). The reason we know this is because Thomas Dimitroff said that is who the Falcons would likely have drafted had we stayed put in the pick.

It is unknown if Falcons would have tried Carimi out a left tackle (where he played in college) or simply placed Carimi at right tackle and not re-signed Tyson Clabo - too many variables to figure out.

Just for fun, thought it would be interesting to try and GUESS what the Falcons would have done. Clearly, in hindsight, it looks like a GREAT move to trade-up for Julio - assuming he stays healthy - he should have an awesome career w/ Falcons.

Here is my guess of what the Falcons might have done - and "yes", I looked at draft results in 2011/2012 to see who would have been available at Falcons picks:

2011 Draft:

1st - Gabe Carimi, OT-Wisconsin - He has been nicked up a lot in Chicago an has had an undistinguished rookie year. I still think he will be a decent player but appears to be more of a right tackle and generally you don't want to draft right tackles in the 1st round.

2nd - Greg Little, WR-North Carolina - This guy's college tape looked really, really good and he appeared to be an explosive player. However he had some off-field issues and I'm not sure if he would have passed the Falcons filter. Supposedly the Falcons were very interested in small Troy WR - Jerrell Jernigan - who is a Harry Douglas-type - only faster - but Jernigan lasted to the 3rd round where the NY Giants took him. I am not certain at all that the Falcons would have taken Little but this is my best guess. Little had an OK rookie season but has not shown yet that he can be a difference-maker in NFL. Another guy that the Falcons could have drafted in 2nd round was Georgia DE - Justin Houston - who has looked decent but not great so far. Houston tested positive for mary-jane before the NFL combine so he dropped to third round and the Chiefs. Considering that Dimitroff's mentor (Scott Pioli) took Houston in 3rd round, would not have suprised me if he would have been the pick for Dimitroff in 2nd round.

4th - Jacquizz Rodgers, RB-Oregon State - Falcons ended up getting Rodgers anyway moving up in the 5th round to nab Quizz. Probably would have taken him in the 4th round had they kept this pick.

2012 Draft:

espnchicago_i_mercilus_mb_576.jpg

1st - Whitney Mercilus, DE-Illinois - again, way too many factors to accurately predict this pick and this is just a hunch. Falcons still don't have a DE prospect with a really high ceiling on the team right now and Mercilus has the prototype size (6'3" 261) and quicks to get the job done. Selected by the Houston Texans who have a track record of recognizing "Edge Rusher" talent.

4th - Brandon Boykin, CB-Georgia - seems like a logical pick as Boykin has the speed/athleticism to play nickel corner and is a PLUS player for returning punts and kickoffs.

Analysis:

OFFENSIVE LINE: I think our Offensive Line would have stayed about the same as I think Clabo leaves with the drafting of Carimi and he plays right tackle - Advantage: PUSH

WIDE RECEIVER: I think Greg Little is a major step down from Julio Jones. I was in love with Greg Little before the draft and thought the difference between the two players was smaller than it actually turned out to be. I think Julio is more talented but the biggest difference is Julio is a harder worker willing to do what it takes to be great. - Advantage: FAVORS JULIO TRADE

DEFENSE: The major detraction in my estimation to the Julio trade is the lack of defensive talent. Clearly the Falcons would likely have used some of these picks for a pass rusher and a cornerback. Advantage: FAVORS NO TRADE

Ultimately there is a good chance the players I selected for Falcons above or ones the Falcons would have selected - some likely would have been busts - also, some might not be busts but just be "another average player". Ultimately succesful NFL teams have STAR players and mix-n-match average guys to play their roles in team concept with solid schemes, etc. to win games. The Packers 2010 SuperBowl victory is a perfect example. They had their star players stay healthy, had a lot of the average guys go down in injuries, brought in average back-ups, coached them up and won a SuperBowl.

VERDICT:

Julio Jones is a straight-up star. If he stays healthy, then this trade is likely a winner for the Falcons and a great move by Thomas Dimitroff..

Feel free to offer up your own selections of what the Falcons might have done......but it should start with Carimi since Dimitroff has already said this was the pick.

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G-dawg, remember we did not lose a 1st round pick pick in the 2011 draft but gave up the 2nd and 4th in 2011 and the 1st and 4th in 2012 in order to move up.

I agree with you that JJ is a straight up star and no opposing DB gets any sleep the night before a Falcons game.

Edited by TeamPlayer1
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Sometimes I'm not sure either however I did edit right after my post.

everyone understands that we gave up two firsts for a higher 1st round pick - so we really just gave up one extra first rounder - i just wanted to compare what Falcons might have gotten had they never did the trade.

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No really worth getting at where we would have picked. I'm glad with Julio

I think, while an exercise in futility, is still fun to think about. I'm an "armchair GM" and I find it fascinating how GM's put NFL teams together - lots of different ways to do it and some GMs are really good at it and some are not - all 32 with many different philosophies.

just find it interesting to think about - sorry if not your cup of tea.

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I still agree with the trade. Just like you pointed out with your 2011 picks, we got a WR and Quizz so we got 2 of 3. Carimi would have been watching behind Clabo had we picked him in my opinion unless they slid one in. I like Mercilus and Boykin but I think we can make up for it this coming draft.

Julio is a top 3 type WR. We will never be in position to get a guy like him in the near future.

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I still agree with the trade. Just like you pointed out with your 2011 picks, we got a WR and Quizz so we got 2 of 3. Carimi would have been watching behind Clabo had we picked him in my opinion unless they slid one in. I like Mercilus and Boykin but I think we can make up for it this coming draft.

Julio is a top 3 type WR. We will never be in position to get a guy like him in the near future.

agreed. only thing I will disagree w/ you on is Carimi. Tyson Clabo was a free agent last year. Falcons either would have re-signed Clabo and slid Carimi over to Sam Baker's LEFT TACKLE spot OR would have let Clabo walk to Buffalo and Carimi would have started at RIGHT TACKLE.

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agreed. only thing I will disagree w/ you on is Carimi. Tyson Clabo was a free agent last year. Falcons either would have re-signed Clabo and slid Carimi over to Sam Baker's LEFT TACKLE spot OR would have let Clabo walk to Buffalo and Carimi would have started at RIGHT TACKLE.

True. I guess he would have been fine to take. I just wasn't a fan of Carimi's. Glad we didn't hesitate to go for Julio though. He can carry us to at least an NFCCG. He's that good. I don't see the other picks doing that even collectively.

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We can speculate all day what the Falcons might have drafted IF they would have kept their picks.

For me, I like a team with great depth and I rather build my team with several players than put my hope in 1.

As good as Julio is, it seems the Falcon fans are overtaken by flash over substance. The talent on the Falcons is paper thin. They have some stars for starters but their backups are substandard.

Even if Julio one day surpasses Jerry Rice, Jerry would never won a Super Bowl without HOF QBs throwing to him, all pro offensive lines, and a top 10 defenses for the 49ers. Jerry Rice was a great player on a great team.

Julio is a great player on a decent team. This for me is the difference.

At the most Julio will see the ball 7 times a game TOPS. It is really worth it when the Falcons have no MLB, there O line still stinks, and no pass rush. Reality will set in during the playoffs again.

Don't get me wrong, I like Julio. He seems like a great guy who I want to succeed. Just not at the cost with the rest of the team.

This seems like it is the same old debate in these forums: The success of one player vs the whole team. I don't care if it is Matt Ryan or this case Julio Jones, when will the fans ever learn?

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At first blush, I was against the move last year to trade up and get Julio. I felt like we gave up a little too much. I thought the 1st, 2nd and 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2012 was about right - felt like giving up the 2012 4th rounder was a little overkill - having said that, the difference in kicking in the extra 4th rounder is not HUGE.

One thing others do when analyzing this trade is look at the players the Browns drafted with the Falcons draft picks - this seems silly to me though because the Falcons would have drafted different players in those spots.

The only player we know for certain the Falcons would have drafted would have been the Wisconsin Offensive Tackle - Gabe Carimi (who was ultimately selected by the Bears at #26 overall last year). The reason we know this is because Thomas Dimitroff said that is who the Falcons would likely have drafted had we stayed put in the pick.

It is unknown if Falcons would have tried Carimi out a left tackle (where he played in college) or simply placed Carimi at right tackle and not re-signed Tyson Clabo - too many variables to figure out.

Just for fun, thought it would be interesting to try and GUESS what the Falcons would have done. Clearly, in hindsight, it looks like a GREAT move to trade-up for Julio - assuming he stays healthy - he should have an awesome career w/ Falcons.

Here is my guess of what the Falcons might have done - and "yes", I looked at draft results in 2011/2012 to see who would have been available at Falcons picks:

2011 Draft:

1st - Gabe Carimi, OT-Wisconsin - He has been nicked up a lot in Chicago an has had an undistinguished rookie year. I still think he will be a decent player but appears to be more of a right tackle and generally you don't want to draft right tackles in the 1st round.

2nd - Greg Little, WR-North Carolina - This guy's college tape looked really, really good and he appeared to be an explosive player. However he had some off-field issues and I'm not sure if he would have passed the Falcons filter. Supposedly the Falcons were very interested in small Troy WR - Jerrell Jernigan - who is a Harry Douglas-type - only faster - but Jernigan lasted to the 3rd round where the NY Giants took him. I am not certain at all that the Falcons would have taken Little but this is my best guess. Little had an OK rookie season but has not shown yet that he can be a difference-maker in NFL. Another guy that the Falcons could have drafted in 2nd round was Georgia DE - Justin Houston - who has looked decent but not great so far. Houston tested positive for mary-jane before the NFL combine so he dropped to third round and the Chiefs. Considering that Dimitroff's mentor (Scott Pioli) took Houston in 3rd round, would not have suprised me if he would have been the pick for Dimitroff in 2nd round.

4th - Jacquizz Rodgers, RB-Oregon State - Falcons ended up getting Rodgers anyway moving up in the 5th round to nab Quizz. Probably would have taken him in the 4th round had they kept this pick.

2012 Draft:

espnchicago_i_mercilus_mb_576.jpg

1st - Whitney Mercilus, DE-Illinois - again, way too many factors to accurately predict this pick and this is just a hunch. Falcons still don't have a DE prospect with a really high ceiling on the team right now and Mercilus has the prototype size (6'3" 261) and quicks to get the job done. Selected by the Houston Texans who have a track record of recognizing "Edge Rusher" talent.

4th - Brandon Boykin, CB-Georgia - seems like a logical pick as Boykin has the speed/athleticism to play nickel corner and is a PLUS player for returning punts and kickoffs.

Analysis:

OFFENSIVE LINE: I think our Offensive Line would have stayed about the same as I think Clabo leaves with the drafting of Carimi and he plays right tackle - Advantage: PUSH

WIDE RECEIVER: I think Greg Little is a major step down from Julio Jones. I was in love with Greg Little before the draft and thought the difference between the two players was smaller than it actually turned out to be. I think Julio is more talented but the biggest difference is Julio is a harder worker willing to do what it takes to be great. - Advantage: FAVORS JULIO TRADE

DEFENSE: The major detraction in my estimation to the Julio trade is the lack of defensive talent. Clearly the Falcons would likely have used some of these picks for a pass rusher and a cornerback. Advantage: FAVORS NO TRADE

Ultimately there is a good chance the players I selected for Falcons above or ones the Falcons would have selected - some likely would have been busts - also, some might not be busts but just be "another average player". Ultimately succesful NFL teams have STAR players and mix-n-match average guys to play their roles in team concept with solid schemes, etc. to win games. The Packers 2010 SuperBowl victory is a perfect example. They had their star players stay healthy, had a lot of the average guys go down in injuries, brought in average back-ups, coached them up and won a SuperBowl.

VERDICT:

Julio Jones is a straight-up star. If he stays healthy, then this trade is likely a winner for the Falcons and a great move by Thomas Dimitroff..

Feel free to offer up your own selections of what the Falcons might have done......but it should start with Carimi since Dimitroff has already said this was the pick.

My thought was Carimi in the 1st, Justin Houston in the 2nd and Denarius Moore in the 4th.

In 2012, take Kevin Zeitler in the first, Konz 2nd, Brandon Thompson 3rd and still get Lamar Holmes with a more reasonable 4th.

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Didnt know julio was hanging it up after one year..... Lets see what he does in his career before we make judgements.

you miss the entire point of the thread. The point is to try and make guess at what the draft picks ***MIGHT*** have netted and compare it to the fantastic production that the Falcons are getting right now from Julio and hope to continue to receive.

Its just something for conversation/fun - that is all.

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