Espn Total Qbr

[Peyton]

Thats not logical at all...no one knows the exact formula for KFC chicken, is it made up?

And fine...throw it out. Use DVOA or YAR (better measures anyway). Guess what.....same conclusion.

Matt is playing absolutely fantastic football this year....as he has for the majority of his career here. Just like any advanced statistical review of his career would suggest, he's a very good, if not "elite", QB in the NFL.

Oh I wasn't arguing that point. I just like making fun of the total QBR....and ESPN's efforts to make themselves important.

[Atl/0]

you'll be eating that crow for their careers.

I thought you didn't like it when people talk in absolutes.

Do as I say, not as I do

[Atl/0]

Brees has been garbage this year... haven't watched the other two yet.

So two weeks is enough to say that Brees is inferior? Do you really think that most would believe that or is this more TAFT homecooking?

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

Oh I wasn't arguing that point. I just like making fun of the total QBR....and ESPN's efforts to make themselves important.

How is it an effort to "make themselves important"....they already are important.

They have worked with a team in an effort to better quantify what happens on the football field. Better than the raw, contextless numbers that the NFL stat sheet gives us. I'm not really sure why that gets hated on....at least by the thinking football fan. Obviously the "ZOMG PLAYOFF LOSS, TRENT DILFER IS GUD CUZ HE WON A SUPERBOWL!" football fan isn't going to get it, but I always though you had a bit of insight into the game.

So let me ask it a different way....if TQBR wasn't an ESPN creation but, instead, developed by a stat house independently, would you be as wary of the results? Because it seems youre letting your bias against ESPN affect how you think about the game in certain respects.

[Butudontseeme™]

Thats not logical at all...no one knows the exact formula for KFC chicken, is it made up?

And fine...throw it out. Use DVOA or YAR (better measures anyway). Guess what.....same conclusion.

Matt is playing absolutely fantastic football this year....as he has for the majority of his career here. Just like any advanced statistical review of his career would suggest, he's a very good, if not "elite", QB in the NFL.

The fact that the calculation is not open knowledge makes it susceptible to ridicule because it could be changed at any given time to support a specific stance (or player, team, etc).

As far as KFC, who knows if that's even real chicken these days? Lol. Watch out for the beaks and feet!

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

So two weeks is enough to say that Brees is inferior? Do you really think that most would believe that or is this more TAFT homecooking?

Sure...you can say that THIS SEASON Brees has been playing at a lower level than those guys ranked above him.

Any measure, TBQR, Passer Rating, Comp%, YAR, PFF grading, is present in time. It isn't a total valuation of a QB. It provides us insight into current level of play. And Brees' current level of play has been pretty crappy this year.

So no, Matt being rated higher on these lists doesnt mean he's a "better QB" than Drew Brees....but it certainly means he is currently playing better than Brees.

[Joremarid]

So two weeks is enough to say that Brees is inferior? Do you really think that most would believe that or is this more TAFT homecooking?

the topic was who has been better in the 2012 season. Brees has been garbage and tbh it isn't TATF homecooking as a lot of qbs have been better then brees this year... off the top of my head, Ryan, Smith, RG3, Luck, Roethlisberger, Eli, Peyton, Cam, Flacco, Rivers, and im sure many more.

[Corporal Clegg]

So two weeks is enough to say that Brees is inferior? Do you really think that most would believe that or is this more TAFT homecooking?

Brees is inferior right now, Ryan is playing better than any QB in the league right now and is a serious MVP contender.

That is the way things are right now, since this is an actual Falcons message board try not to get so offended by people being happy and excited to the start of our season.

[Peyton]

How is it an effort to "make themselves important"....they already are important.

They have worked with a team in an effort to better quantify what happens on the football field. Better than the raw, contextless numbers that the NFL stat sheet gives us. I'm not really sure why that gets hated on....at least by the thinking football fan. Obviously the "ZOMG PLAYOFF LOSS, TRENT DILFER IS GUD CUZ HE WON A SUPERBOWL!" football fan isn't going to get it, but I always though you had a bit of insight into the game.

So let me ask it a different way....if TQBR wasn't an ESPN creation but, instead, developed by a stat house independently, would you be as wary of the results? Because it seems youre letting your bias against ESPN affect how you think about the game in certain respects.

Like I said earlier in this thread.

I am not putting any stock in any statistic unless someone can show me exactly how it is calculated.

My job is that of an analyst and I have to understand where all the numbers I use come from. Maybe that shapes my thinking on that.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

The fact that the calculation is not open knowledge makes it susceptible to ridicule because it could be changed at any given time to support a specific stance (or player, team, etc).

As far as KFC, who knows if that's even real chicken these days? Lol. Watch out for the beaks and feet!

But its a context specific evaluation...so it includes more than "raw numbers" and, thusly, isn't capable of being put together by adding comp%, YPA and TD:INT and dividing by 5. I'm sure that someone with enough dedication could assemble a reasonable facsimile of the formula through the use of expected win contribution and go through the thing backwards. But for me, that's not necessary. TQBR is a tool in a tool box. It's not the gospel...but the fact that it is fairly close in results to the other advanced statistical measures available suggest that its on the right track.

[Corporal Clegg]

Like I said earlier in this thread.

I am not putting any stock in any statistic unless someone can show me exactly how it is calculated.

My job is that of an analyst and I have to understand where all the numbers I use come from. Maybe that shapes my thinking on that.

Right now pretty much any QB grading tool shows Ryan as the best QB in the league after 2 games. Pick one that shows it's formula if that aspect bothers you cause it doesn't matter at this point everything says Ryan is currently playing the best of any other QB.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Corporal Clegg

[#1 pick™]

lol, some of you guys are getting way out of hand, even more than usual.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

Like I said earlier in this thread.

I am not putting any stock in any statistic unless someone can show me exactly how it is calculated.

My job is that of an analyst and I have to understand where all the numbers I use come from. Maybe that shapes my thinking on that.

I think thats remarkably short sighted in light of the value of intellectual property and such. These firms make their money off of their creation. Giving them away would be the same as giving away a recipe or patent.

Hey man, its not my job to convince you...I'm just pointing out issues in your line of thinking. And I do think its bogus to criticize a player/team/whatever and then turn a blind eye to evidence that contradicts your conclusion because you aren't "comfortable" with it.

[Peyton]

But its a context specific evaluation...so it includes more than "raw numbers" and, thusly, isn't capable of being put together by adding comp%, YPA and TD:INT and dividing by 5. I'm sure that someone with enough dedication could assemble a reasonable facsimile of the formula through the use of expected win contribution and go through the thing backwards. But for me, that's not necessary. TQBR is a tool in a tool box. It's not the gospel...but the fact that it is fairly close in results to the other advanced statistical measures available suggest that its on the right track.

And also unnecessary.

[Corporal Clegg]

lol, some of you guys are getting way out of hand, even more than usual.

Yea it's quite silly for them to be splitting hairs and getting all pissy for people being happy with the start of our season.

Some people have an issue sitting back and saying hey look Ryan is playing awesome and our team is doing really well.

If these negative nillies could just sit back chill and enjoy some Falcons football this would be a much happier place to be.

[#1 pick™]

Like I said earlier in this thread.

I am not putting any stock in any statistic unless someone can show me exactly how it is calculated.

My job is that of an analyst and I have to understand where all the numbers I use come from. Maybe that shapes my thinking on that.

Agreed. It is one thing to use stats as a reference point, but it's a completely different thing you use them as a clear descriptive as some frequently do on here.

[Atl/0]

Sure...you can say that THIS SEASON Brees has been playing at a lower level than those guys ranked above him.

Any measure, TBQR, Passer Rating, Comp%, YAR, PFF grading, is present in time. It isn't a total valuation of a QB. It provides us insight into current level of play. And Brees' current level of play has been pretty crappy this year.

So no, Matt being rated higher on these lists doesnt mean he's a "better QB" than Drew Brees....but it certainly means he is currently playing better than Brees.

Never disagreed that Ryan started off the year better, I asked if he was the better quarterback which some here get pissy for asking.

That being said Carson Palmer is in the top 5 in QBR after two weeks so putting so much praise like it means something at this point is funny.

[Butudontseeme™]

But its a context specific evaluation...so it includes more than "raw numbers" and, thusly, isn't capable of being put together by adding comp%, YPA and TD:INT and dividing by 5. I'm sure that someone with enough dedication could assemble a reasonable facsimile of the formula through the use of expected win contribution and go through the thing backwards. But for me, that's not necessary. TQBR is a tool in a tool box. It's not the gospel...but the fact that it is fairly close in results to the other advanced statistical measures available suggest that its on the right track.

So what if I don't agree with the context or the weight assigned to the different contextual factors?

I guarantee that if Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and the 3 others listed as the top 5 right now in TQBR are still there after week 17, ESPN will change it to make other guys, some of which are legitimately better, rank higher in the coming season.

[Peyton]

I think thats remarkably short sighted in light of the value of intellectual property and such. These firms make their money off of their creation. Giving them away would be the same as giving away a recipe or patent.

Hey man, its not my job to convince you...I'm just pointing out issues in your line of thinking. And I do think its bogus to criticize a player/team/whatever and then turn a blind eye to evidence that contradicts your conclusion because you aren't "comfortable" with it.

I'm not sure what you are talking about.

Let me ask you a question then. The San Francisco 49ers went 13-3 last year, and thier offense set an NFL record for the lowest number of turnovers ever. Alex Smith threw 5 INTs all season.

Do you think that a rating of being the 7th best QB in the league or being the 19th best QB in the league would be more accurate?

[Joremarid]

lol, some of you guys are getting way out of hand, even more than usual.

what do you mean?

[Peyton]

Right now pretty much any QB grading tool shows Ryan as the best QB in the league after 2 games. Pick one that shows it's formula if that aspect bothers you cause it doesn't matter at this point everything says Ryan is currently playing the best of any other QB.

I've already addressed the fact that I'm not in disagreement with that in any way shape or form.

[falconidae]

I thought you didn't like it when people talk in absolutes.

Do as I say, not as I do

you're right, I got carried away because of the line. Thought crow about and eating crow was a great line, still do.

[Atl/0]

the topic was who has been better in the 2012 season. Brees has been garbage and tbh it isn't TATF homecooking as a lot of qbs have been better then brees this year... off the top of my head, Ryan, Smith, RG3, Luck, Roethlisberger, Eli, Peyton, Cam, Flacco, Rivers, and im sure many more.

Saying he has sucked so far and say that he sucks period are to different things.

Based on these rankings Alex Smith is playing as the second best in the league so far this, That does not mean he is the second best quarterback in the NFL.

[Mr Pickle1]

I think the QBR is silly because it is trying to take into account everything, but it's just impossible to do. So it becomes just a more confusing passer rating.

A QB checking into the proper play is not measured in the QBR, but it's one of the most important thing a QB does.

To me, the QBR is just a bit of ESPN attention whoring, but I guess I can dig it. Something else to discuss I guess.

What you're describing to me sounds like---it's much better than the original rating system, but it's still far from perfect, and it fails to account for checking into the correct plays, just like the original rating, so it kinda sucks.

I definitely think this is a MUCH better system than the previous one, but I do agree with your sentiment that it's still far from perfect. I think this is about as close as independent statistical analysis can get. Of course, checking into the right play is actually somewhat accounted for, because if a qb is consistently checking into the right play, it's much easier to get completed passes, etc, so his qb rating will be higher. If a dude can't check into the right plays, but is just such a monstrous arm and eye talent that he consistently puts up big plays in tight moments...then by god, I'm fine with him being rated higher than someone who always checks into the right plays, but can barely throw accurately. That isn't terribly likely to happen, though.

[Joremarid]

I'm not sure what you are talking about.

Let me ask you a question then. The San Francisco 49ers went 13-3 last year, and thier offense set an NFL record for the lowest number of turnovers ever. Alex Smith threw 5 INTs all season.

Do you think that a rating of being the 7th best QB in the league or being the 19th best QB in the league would be more accurate?

you can't take one point of reference and compare it to the rest of the league without a second point of reference. but still, i prefer DVOA/DYAR, which had alex smith as the 14th (DVOA) and 13th (DYAR) best qb last year.