Weird...obama Has Huge Surge In The Polls (For Now) According To Gallup.

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

So here's the weird part...this is a seven day rolling average. Each day, they survey about 500 new people, add those to the average while dropping the oldest sample of voters.

From the 8/22-8/28 average to the 8/30-9/5 average, Obama had a consistent 47-46 point lead...statistical tie. Then, when the added the 9/6 sample, his lead jumped to 48-45. Yesterday, when they added the 9/7 sample, it jumped against to 49-45. Not sure if this will format correctly, but...

08/30-09/5/2012 47 46 08/31-09/6/2012 48 45 09/1-7/2012 49 45

According to my very loose math, that means Obama's lead in the last two days of survey would have be somewhere around a 51-43 lead for Obama. I don't believe for a minute that will be the final result in October, but it's very interesting that Obama's lead would be that large in the aftermath of the convention, especially considering that the number didn't move one bit either way during the RNC convention.

But crap...51-43 (or thereabouts) lead for Obama over the last two days? Wow.

Unfortunately, there's a lack of other polls to serve as a check on these numbers, but two other trackers (Reuters/Ipsos and Rasmussen) also showed an Obama bounce during the convention but virtually no bounce for Romney.

The other reason why this is strange is that traditionally, the first convention gets the larger bounce while the second convention gets the longer bounce, especially when the conventions are held back-to-back. It's likely that Obama's bump out of the convention could last a week or more, giving him some breathing room heading into the debates next month.

Anyway, I'm sticking by my forecast showing a very close election, but coming out of the conventions (which typically have the largest impact on the campaign than any other campaign event), things look a lot more optimistic for Obama.

On other thing:

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm

From the period just after the RNC convention to yesterday, Obama's approval rating has increased from 43% to 52%...a pretty huge increase. Again, I'm not convinced that his approvals can stay this high, BUT it would be very difficult to defeat an incumbent president with an approval around or above 50%.

[Downvote Don 12,260]

The most shocking was the spike in the Gallup approval poll yesterday. I thought it was a typo. That the approval poll is a 3 day average and the Romney v obama poll is 7 days reinforces the validity of your math. The last couple of days have been extrodinary for Obama.

That being said, I agree with Lord Silver that the good news should be tempered by two factors: 1) Michelle and Bill gave better speeches than Barack. 2) the Friday job numbers won't help. In other words, the polling from Wednesday and Thursday are weighted most heavily in the current polling. Friday and Saturday's numbers, which will more greatly impact the polling numbers over the next couple of days are less likely to show the same trend.

But a flattening of the current trend would still be very good news for Obama. Expanding the lead would be phenomenal. A slight drop is probably most likely, but that would not be so bad. As new polls come out to compliment the tracking polls, I would love to see things stabilize above 3%. I would be surprised and dissapointed if the President doesn't carry a 2-4% lead throught next week on the RCP average.

Edited September 9, 2012 by holymoses

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

The job numbers won't help, but will they hurt? The wild card here that nobody is talking about is incumbency. I mentioned in another thread that we rarely have economic situations for an incumbent reelection that are ambiguous...neither great nor horrible. It's possible that people give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt. It's also possible that people don't think that mediocre is good enough. We just don't know.

The media coverage seems to be key to all of this. The Republicans had one day of good coverage (Ann Romney) followed by two days of awful media coverage. All day Thursday was Ryan's deceptions. Then Friday and the weekend was focused on Clint Eastwood's fiasco. In contrast, the Democrats had two days of fantastic coverage (Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton) followed by a day of slightly negative coverage (jobs report dampens Obama's speech). But the tone of the coverage wasn't as negative on Friday as it was just neutral.

I tend to discount weekend polling because it's not always a representative sample. I'd say that we should wait for the Tuesday/Wednesday results to be posted before drawing more definitive conclusions. Those are also days that the other polling firms should be releasing their results.

Overall, though, this is definitely a promising week for Obama. During an election where so few people are truly undecided (right now, probably around 6-8%), this kind of swing is pretty significant, especially regarding the approval ratings. I had a similar reaction to you, btw...I wondered if that was a typo or was somehow an outlier. But the approval trend started a week ago and has gone in the same direction all week, so the probability that it's a fluke is so astronomically small that we have to believe there's been a huge swing in approval for Obama.

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

Also, everyone should check out the ebook "The Gamble", where it talks about how Obama's favorability rating are keeping his chances higher than they would be based on the economy and approval alone. I linked to the free ebook chapters in another thread. It's really eye-opening stuff.

[Downvote Don 12,260]

Also, everyone should check out the ebook "The Gamble", where it talks about how Obama's favorability rating are keeping his chances higher than they would be based on the economy and approval alone. I linked to the free ebook chapters in another thread. It's really eye-opening stuff.

I wonder if Ryan's lie about his Marathon time will effect ANYONE's vote?

The most important aspect of obama's approval/likability is that it reduces the effectiveness of the nasty/negative attacks. That's why it was so imporant for Michelle and Joe to huminize the president and really play up his character and resolve. Clinton too. They all came up HUGE.

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

One last thing thing for the night in the form of a shameless plug:

Sasha Issenberg

He has been studying and truly understands the new frontiers of election campaign strategy. His ebook chapter "Rick Perry and His Eggheads" is part of his upcoming book The Victory Lab. You can get the chapter for $1 on Amazon and get a free sample from Itunes for the prologue of his ebook.

He documents the rise of experimental techniques and empirical/statistical methods being used in modern campaigns. It is literally Moneybali for politics, and it is the best inside account of how campaigns are being run right now than anything else that I've seen.

I cannot give his book and "Rick Perry" chapter a high enough recommendation. Anyone who wants to really understand politics today should read it.

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

I wonder if Ryan's lie about his Marathon time will effect ANYONE's vote?

The most important aspect of obama's approval/likability is that it reduces the effectiveness of the nasty/negative attacks. That's why it was so imporant for Michelle and Joe to huminize the president and really play up his character and resolve. Clinton too. They all came up HUGE.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if more than 5% of the American electorate even knew about his marathon exaggeration. It might help create a diffuse sense that he's prone to overstatement, but it's not going to have much of an impact for most voters.

[Downvote Don 12,260]

Honestly, I'd be surprised if more than 5% of the American electorate even knew about his marathon exaggeration. It might help create a diffuse sense that he's prone to overstatement, but it's not going to have much of an impact for most voters.

Ask any runner about it. They are outraged.

It's probably too far off the radar and too trivial to register, but it is so viscerally offensive I wonder if it doesn't turn up in ad .... Along with "we're not going to be dictated by fact checkers"

[lostone 18,501]

Ask any runner about it. They are outraged.

It's probably too far off the radar and too trivial to register, but it is so viscerally offensive I wonder if it doesn't turn up in ad .... Along with "we're not going to be dictated by fact checkers"

Said it before... You don't lie about your time... No one cares in the running community about time... Just do it!

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

Ask any runner about it. They are outraged.

It's probably too far off the radar and too trivial to register, but it is so viscerally offensive I wonder if it doesn't turn up in ad .... Along with "we're not going to be dictated by fact checkers"

In a country overrun by obesity and fried food, how many million people do you think that swings to Obama's side?

[Downvote Don 12,260]

In a country overrun by obesity and fried food, how many million people do you think that swings to Obama's side?

Probably zero . . . but I wonder if it undermines the credibility of his attacks. He was already eviscerated for the BS in his convention speech. This sort of reinforces all that in a very clear, nonpartisan way. It makes it very easy to say "Dude's got zero credibility . . ."

[Peyton 21,045]

I don't think it's weird because it is rolling 7 day average right? Let's see what it looks like 5 or 6 days after those job numbers came out.

[Peyton 21,045]

I wonder if Ryan's lie about his Marathon time will effect ANYONE's vote?

You are being intentionally silly right? There are a lot of people out their worried about having a job, or having a job that pays what they used to make, or getting a pay raise for the first time in 5 years, or the costs of gasoline and food and electricity choking them out.

I'm not sure how many people are worried about Paul Ryan's marathon time. I doubt it's a big number.

[Guest Deisel]

Gallup is being SUED by the DOJ and Axelrod has been putting pressure on them since April. The Feds are leaning on them hard. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/06/emails-suggest-axelrod-leaned-on-gallup-after-unfavorable-poll/?intcmp=obinsite And you wonder why people distrust polls so much.

[Guest Deisel]

You are being intentionally silly right? There are a lot of people out their worried about having a job, or having a job that pays what they used to make, or getting a pay raise for the first time in 5 years, or the costs of gasoline and food and electricity choking them out.

I'm not sure how many people are worried about Paul Ryan's marathon time. I doubt it's a big number.

No Peyton. Its petty and its absolutely has No bearing on anyones lives but it has legs only because the left has No positive record to stand on. Expect pettyness from petty people. Its the Economy that we are all worried abt. Not Pauls marathon times and certainly not where Romney lives and spends his OWN money.

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

Gallup is being SUED by the DOJ and Axelrod has been putting pressure on them since April. The Feds are leaning on them hard. http://www.foxnews.c...intcmp=obinsite And you wonder why people distrust polls so much.

Then explain why every single poll that's been released shows an Obama bounce. Even Rasmussen, the conservative's favorite pollster, shows a bounce post convention.

[Peyton 21,045]

Then explain why every single poll that's been released shows an Obama bounce. Even Rasmussen, the conservative's favorite pollster, shows a bounce post convention.

I don't think there is any doubt that the bounce is legitimate, President Obama and Bill Clinton are two of the most inspiring speakers to ever step up to a microphone. I just think this bounce will have a hard time sticking with the economic picture clearly going in the wrong direction.

[falconstwopercentsized 3,291]

because brondo has electrolytes

[lostone 18,501]

Have they announced the first debate yet? Ready for this! Will we get two or three debates?

[Guest Deisel]

Then explain why every single poll that's been released shows an Obama bounce. Even Rasmussen, the conservative's favorite pollster, shows a bounce post convention.

That'd be the obligatory dead cat bounce.

[Leon Troutsky 27,041]

That'd be the obligatory dead cat bounce.

So the polls are accurate.

[Downvote Don 12,260]

Another good day for Obama, extending his lead in both major daily tracking polls. However, there is confirmation that the jobs numbers from Friday might shut off the spout on the convention bounce. The Gallup approval 3 day rolling average is already back down to 6 from a peak at 10. So 2/3 of the +6 approval is from post job report. Clearly the convention was huge for Obama's approval and, based on rasmussen's numbers, gave him a better than average bounce despite the negative effect of the jobs reports.

Again, that's the picture so far. I agree, Tues/Wednesday will be more telling.

[Rambler 766]

And then the debates begin and you have to answer direct attacks against your dismal record.

[Downvote Don 12,260]

And then the debates begin and you have to answer direct attacks against your dismal record.

Rambler, who's going to win this thing? Odds?

[Rambler 766]

Rambler, who's going to win this thing? Odds?

Who has the worst record, Obama or Romney?