Fyi: Turners Dvoa: 39Th - Mularkey Predictable?

[texasbirdfan]

Turner's poor numbers reflect on the play calling mix IMO.

see attached

[texasbirdfan]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

2011 RUNNING BACKS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 1/2/2012

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

Effective Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. Success Rate is further explained here. It is not adjusted for opponent.

The simple version: DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play.

• These numbers do not separate the performance of a running back from the performance of his offensive line. (You'll find numbers that try to do that on this page.) Be aware that one will affect the other.

• All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

• Because they primarily run from the backfield on option plays, Brad Smith and Josh Cribbs are rated for rushing as running backs rather than wide receivers.

RUSHING: Minimum 100 rushes, 51 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc

Rate Rk

L.McCoy

PHI 324 1 281 1 17.4% 4 14.0% 273 1,309 1,597 17 1 51% 15

M.Jones-Drew

JAC 231 2 230 2 7.2% 14 7.4% 343 1,604 1,604 8 3 49% 20

M.Lynch

SEA 230 3 183 6 11.1% 12 7.3% 285 1,204 1,358 12 3 46% 27

J.Stewart

CAR 202 4 185 5 24.4% 2 22.0% 142 762 846 4 1 53% 8

R.Mathews

SD 197 5 159 11 13.7% 10 9.5% 222 1,091 1,074 6 5 50% 18

P.Thomas

NO 193 6 192 4 32.6% 1 32.6% 110 562 712 5 1 61% 1

F.Jackson

BUF 178 7 181 7 16.1% 6 16.4% 170 936 915 6 2 54% 7

D.Williams

CAR 178 8 165 10 21.0% 3 19.1% 155 831 798 7 0 46% 28

D.Murray

DAL 169 9 180 8 15.3% 7 17.1% 164 896 876 2 1 58% 2

B.Tate

HOU 167 10 179 9 14.8% 8 16.4% 175 949 889 4 4 53% 9

A.Peterson

MIN 163 11 205 3 11.9% 11 16.9% 208 973 962 12 1 47% 25

W.McGahee

DEN 159 12 145 14 7.0% 16 5.8% 249 1,206 1,126 4 3 47% 26

R.Rice

BAL 148 13 128 16 3.7% 24 2.0% 291 1,364 1,286 12 2 45% 33

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc

Rate Rk

A.Foster

HOU 141 14 145 13 3.8% 23 4.3% 278 1,236 1,196 10 4 44% 40

S.Greene

NYJ 140 15 154 12 4.8% 20 6.1% 252 1,053 1,132 6 1 50% 17

D.Brown

IND 134 16 117 18 16.7% 5 13.5% 134 645 671 5 0 37% 49

C.Wells

ARI 123 17 118 17 3.2% 28 2.7% 245 1,048 1,103 10 4 51% 12

B.Green-Ellis

NE 121 18 129 15 6.0% 18 6.7% 181 667 928 11 0 54% 6

R.Mendenhall

PIT 121 19 104 21 3.8% 22 2.0% 228 928 1,039 9 1 52% 11

D.McFadden

OAK 100 20 99 22 14.3% 9 14.4% 113 616 533 4 1 44% 38

A.Bradshaw

NYG 95 21 98 23 4.5% 21 4.9% 171 659 776 9 0 45% 32

S.Jackson

STL 90 22 95 24 0.6% 31 0.9% 259 1,146 1,014 5 1 39% 48

L.Blount

TB 87 23 75 28 3.4% 26 1.7% 184 796 770 5 3 47% 23

J.Battle

KC 87 24 89 25 6.1% 17 6.5% 149 597 649 2 0 44% 39

C.J.Spiller

BUF 85 25 83 27 10.4% 13 9.5% 107 556 533 3 2 51% 13

M.Bush

OAK 83 26 65 30 -0.9% 35 -2.7% 256 980 1,090 7 1 45% 36

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc

Rate Rk

R.Grant

GB 78 27 57 33 5.6% 19 1.8% 134 561 595 2 1 46% 31

M.Turner

ATL 76 28 116 19 -2.5% 39 0.6% 301 1,349 1,223 11 3 45% 34

R.Bush

MIA 73 29 112 20 0.8% 30 5.8% 216 1,089 792 6 4 44% 37

M.Ingram

NO 70 30 54 34 3.4% 27 0.8% 122 474 605 5 1 56% 3

T.Gerhart

MIN 67 31 51 35 7.2% 15 3.2% 109 531 479 1 1 40% 47

P.Hillis

CLE 65 32 62 31 0.3% 32 0.0% 161 587 731 3 1 55% 4

I.Redman

PIT 59 33 70 29 3.5% 25 6.1% 110 479 507 3 2 54% 5

J.Starks

GB 58 34 41 38 1.8% 29 -1.1% 133 581 571 1 1 50% 16

B.Jacobs

NYG 46 35 39 39 -1.6% 36 -2.5% 152 571 623 7 3 49% 19

M.Forte

CHI 45 36 88 26 -2.7% 40 2.5% 202 994 759 3 1 45% 35

M.Tolbert

SD 41 37 61 32 -0.8% 34 2.9% 120 494 528 8 1 48% 22

R.Helu

WAS 38 38 29 40 -2.1% 37 -3.9% 152 639 603 2 2 47% 24

D.McCluster

KC 36 39 45 36 0.1% 33 2.1% 112 507 422 1 1 43% 41

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc

Rate Rk

R.Williams

BAL 29 40 23 43 -2.2% 38 -3.5% 108 445 430 2 2 51% 14

K.Hunter

SF 23 41 43 37 -3.9% 41 1.3% 112 473 408 2 0 46% 30

F.Jones

DAL 13 42 25 42 -6.1% 43 -3.9% 127 575 489 1 3 52% 10

M.Barber

CHI 12 43 14 44 -6.0% 42 -5.6% 114 422 431 6 1 42% 44

F.Gore

SF 8 44 26 41 -8.1% 44 -6.4% 282 1,211 1,012 8 2 42% 45

C.Benson

CIN 5 45 4 46 -8.2% 45 -8.2% 273 1,065 1,033 6 5 49% 21

B.Scott

CIN 0 46 5 45 -8.8% 46 -7.4% 112 380 378 3 0 43% 42

J.Addai

IND -5 47 -2 47 -9.3% 47 -9.0% 118 433 377 1 1 34% 51

D.Carter

IND -7 48 -14 48 -10.3% 48 -11.9% 101 377 357 2 3 46% 29

C.Johnson

TEN -39 49 -24 49 -12.5% 49 -10.9% 262 1,047 824 4 3 41% 46

T.Jones

KC -89 50 -81 50 -23.5% 51 -22.3% 153 478 366 0 0 35% 50

D.Thomas

MIA -94 51 -85 51 -22.2% 50 -21.0% 165 581 437 0 2 42% 43

RUSHING, OTHERS: 20-99 rushes

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM

D.Sproles

NO 198 200 47.9% 48.4% 87 603 625 2 0

E.Royster WAS 129 125 49.3% 47.2% 56 328 403 0 0

D.Woodhead

NE 110 101 25.4% 22.7% 77 351 454 1 0

C.Ivory

NO 69 81 11.9% 15.1% 79 374 405 1 0

C.Williams

STL 61 55 8.3% 7.0% 87 361 403 1 0

L.Ball

DEN 54 53 5.1% 5.6% 96 408 403 1 1

K.Smith

DET 48 80 7.2% 17.1% 72 356 347 4 0

J.Best

DET 46 34 5.8% 1.8% 84 390 357 2 0

S.Ridley

NE 38 51 2.1% 5.3% 87 441 379 1 1

M.Morris

DET 37 33 3.4% 1.8% 80 322 332 1 1

E.Graham

TB 37 32 16.3% 13.3% 37 206 185 0 1

M.Moore

PIT 32 32 32.4% 32.7% 22 157 118 0 1

D.Lewis

PHI 28 26 21.5% 19.4% 23 102 124 1 0

B.Smith

BUF 28 25 19.7% 16.7% 20 87 131 1 0

C.Ogbonnaya CLE 22 21 -0.9% -1.4% 73 341 287 1 2

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM

L.Tomlinson

NYJ 17 19 -3.1% -2.4% 75 280 292 1 0

J.Rodgers

ATL 10 8 -4.6% -5.1% 57 206 218 1 1

D.Ward

HOU 8 18 -4.4% 1.0% 45 154 178 2 0

A.Smith ARI 7 4 -3.5% -5.6% 30 102 138 1 0

D.Ware

NYG 7 4 -5.0% -6.3% 46 163 164 0 0

K.Lumpkin

TB 5 2 -4.0% -7.2% 31 105 113 0 0

C.Taylor

ARI 4 3 -4.2% -5.5% 20 77 87 1 0

L.Washington

SEA 3 4 -7.0% -6.4% 53 248 170 1 0

T.Hightower

WAS 2 17 -7.5% -3.3% 84 321 291 1 0

J.Kuhn

GB 2 11 -6.9% -1.5% 30 78 141 4 0

S.Morris

DAL 0 0 -9.4% -8.6% 28 98 114 0 0

R.Brown

PHI -3 -21 -11.7% -19.6% 42 136 151 1 1

K.Moreno

DEN -5 0 -12.2% -8.7% 37 179 99 0 1

S.Slaton

HOU -5 -15 -13.7% -22.7% 24 84 82 1 0

J.McKnight

NYJ -6 -4 -12.0% -10.7% 43 134 140 0 0

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM

J.Hester

SD -7 -7 -13.2% -13.2% 28 90 112 0 0

P.Tanner DAL -10 0 -17.8% -8.3% 22 76 75 1 0

C.Brinkley SD -10 -5 -16.9% -12.4% 30 101 88 1 0

A.Dixon

SF -11 -2 -16.6% -9.7% 29 87 99 2 0

J.Norwood

STL -11 -19 -22.3% -32.7% 24 61 50 0 0

L.Stephens-Howling

ARI -12 -14 -15.1% -16.4% 43 167 133 0 0

K.Bell

CHI -16 -14 -13.2% -13.1% 79 337 247 0 2

J.Snelling

ATL -21 -18 -21.1% -19.0% 44 151 116 0 0

J.Forsett

SEA -24 -23 -22.9% -22.4% 46 145 104 1 0

J.Ringer

TEN -48 -40 -31.2% -27.2% 59 185 107 1 0

K.Williams

DET -52 -64 -27.9% -33.5% 58 194 142 2 2

R.Torain

WAS -54 -45 -31.0% -27.9% 59 198 117 1 1

M.Hardesty

CLE -71 -66 -29.3% -28.4% 88 267 175 0 1

D.Karim

JAC -78 -83 -38.6% -40.9% 63 130 96 0 0

T.Choice

BUF -89 -102 -44.2% -48.9% 57 151

[blkbigdog35]

Thanks for the post bro never really looked at this stat this way before.