Is Matt Ryan A Top 100 Player For 2012 ?

[Shredman]

if not , the players need a wake up call, and here it is....

There's been a good bit of debate about whether Matt Ryan is a good, great, or even an elite QB. Many who engage in the debate are quick to point out that guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers both had playoff wins and hoisted the Lombardi trophy within their first four years. Others quickly point out that those guys stepped into organizations that were consistent winners.

But what do the numbers say about Ryan so far? How does he compare against some of the best QBs in the league? Notably, how does his first four years look compared to the first four of some great QBs playing today? I think when you see the hardened numbers, you'll be surprised at what you find.

For my purposes, I'm setting the bar incredibly high. I'm going to compare Ryan to 2 sure-fire first-ballot hall-of-famers and a third QB who is getting there fast. This comparison will be between Ryan, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/2807/peyton-manning">Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees and their first four (full) seasons in the league. NOTE: for Brees and Brady, they didn't start a full season until their second year in the league.

Here's how the breakdown looks:

Yards/TD/INT

Ryan - 14,238 / 95 / 46

Brees - 12,127 / 79 / 53

Manning - 16,418 / 111 / 81

Brady - 13,919 / 97 / 52

At first glance, you can see that Ryan stacks up decently. He's behind only Manning in total yards, while he's very close to Brady for TDs. But he leads in fewest INTs of any of the QBs here. In fact, Ryan has the best TD-to-INT ratio of any of the quarterbacks listed, as you can see here:

TD-to-INT ratio:

Ryan - 2.065

Brees - 1.490

Manning - 1.370

Brady - 1.865

Ball security is a key stat for QBs, and Ryan has been doing it better than anyone on this list. In fact, Ryan has only 1 game on record where he had 3 or more interceptions in one game. The same cannot be said for Brees, Manning or Brady. And for those who think it's because Ryan was in a run-heavy offense, you'll also note that his yards and total TDs are comparable to the other 3 QBs - dispelling the notion that he didn't pass as much as these potential hall of famers.

Wins / Losses / Playoff wins

Ryan - 43 / 19 / 0

Brees - 31 / 28 / 1

Manning - 32 / 32 / 0

Brady - 48 / 15 / 9 (3 Superbowl wins)

This category is where the pain begins for most Falcons fans, but I think it's important to make the comparison. For starters, you can clearly see that Ryan is not alone in his lack of playoff success. Manning also went without a playoff victory in his first four seasons. And while Brees did have a playoff win on his resume, he and Manning were barely above .500 for the first four years of their careers.

Brady is in a whole other category and his first four years are a clear reason why he's considered a first-ballot hall of famer. Ryan compares favorably in regular season wins, but is obviously winless in the "second season" thus far.

I know that people who question Ryan will not be easily persuaded by these numbers, and I'm certainly frustrated by the lack of playoff success. But, I also believe Ryan is on a great pace as a starting QB in this league. He compares favorably against some very tough competition, and in some cases, is doing better than they did. I'm looking forward to what his fifth year in the league is going to look like.

[Guest ¡Spot on Dtan!]

No.

No.

And no.

Despite being surround by Pro-Bowlers at every skill position, Matty barely got over a (unimpressive in today's era) 90 QB rating are again failed miserably in the postseason.

Fellow players are starting to see the truth.

When will the fanbase?

[muskokas finest ©]

Joe Flacco also compares favorably against that trio's first 4 years. Joe Flacco has 5 playoff wins. Joe Flacco has more mobility and much greater arm strength.

Matt Ryan has poor mobility and lower than league average arm strength. Matt Ryan is a thinking man's QB, with great work habits. Matt Ryan is already very cerebral.

Flacco can get smarter and thus make better use of his arm strength and mobility.

Matt Ryan already plays a very smart QB, but doesn't have elite athletic skills to lean on. Where is this big improvement gonna come from?

[SuperAINTSfan]

This first 4 year debate has been played out. All it shows is that he was more NFL ready to start his career. He had better success early on than some of the better QBs in the league

[McMVP]

Personally I don't think fans should worry about where individual players rank...

If they want argue that their team should rank higher on certain lists...I get that...a little anyway. It's still just some guy's list.

[Enlightened32]

No.

No.

And no.

Despite being surround by Pro-Bowlers at every skill position, Matty barely got over a (unimpressive in today's era) 90 QB rating are again failed miserably in the postseason.

Fellow players are starting to see the truth.

When will the fanbase?

When measuring QB ratings, 95 or better is elite. Something Ryan has never accomplished.

if not , the players need a wake up call, and here it is....

There's been a good bit of debate about whether Matt Ryan is a good, great, or even an elite QB. Many who engage in the debate are quick to point out that guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers both had playoff wins and hoisted the Lombardi trophy within their first four years. Others quickly point out that those guys stepped into organizations that were consistent winners.

But what do the numbers say about Ryan so far? How does he compare against some of the best QBs in the league? Notably, how does his first four years look compared to the first four of some great QBs playing today? I think when you see the hardened numbers, you'll be surprised at what you find.

For my purposes, I'm setting the bar incredibly high. I'm going to compare Ryan to 2 sure-fire first-ballot hall-of-famers and a third QB who is getting there fast. This comparison will be between Ryan, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/2807/peyton-manning">Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees and their first four (full) seasons in the league. NOTE: for Brees and Brady, they didn't start a full season until their second year in the league.

Here's how the breakdown looks:

Yards/TD/INT

Ryan - 14,238 / 95 / 46

Brees - 12,127 / 79 / 53

Manning - 16,418 / 111 / 81

Brady - 13,919 / 97 / 52

At first glance, you can see that Ryan stacks up decently. He's behind only Manning in total yards, while he's very close to Brady for TDs. But he leads in fewest INTs of any of the QBs here. In fact, Ryan has the best TD-to-INT ratio of any of the quarterbacks listed, as you can see here:

TD-to-INT ratio:

Ryan - 2.065

Brees - 1.490

Manning - 1.370

Brady - 1.865

Ball security is a key stat for QBs, and Ryan has been doing it better than anyone on this list. In fact, Ryan has only 1 game on record where he had 3 or more interceptions in one game. The same cannot be said for Brees, Manning or Brady. And for those who think it's because Ryan was in a run-heavy offense, you'll also note that his yards and total TDs are comparable to the other 3 QBs - dispelling the notion that he didn't pass as much as these potential hall of famers.

Wins / Losses / Playoff wins

Ryan - 43 / 19 / 0

Brees - 31 / 28 / 1

Manning - 32 / 32 / 0

Brady - 48 / 15 / 9 (3 Superbowl wins)

This category is where the pain begins for most Falcons fans, but I think it's important to make the comparison. For starters, you can clearly see that Ryan is not alone in his lack of playoff success. Manning also went without a playoff victory in his first four seasons. And while Brees did have a playoff win on his resume, he and Manning were barely above .500 for the first four years of their careers.

Brady is in a whole other category and his first four years are a clear reason why he's considered a first-ballot hall of famer. Ryan compares favorably in regular season wins, but is obviously winless in the "second season" thus far.

I know that people who question Ryan will not be easily persuaded by these numbers, and I'm certainly frustrated by the lack of playoff success. But, I also believe Ryan is on a great pace as a starting QB in this league. He compares favorably against some very tough competition, and in some cases, is doing better than they did. I'm looking forward to what his fifth year in the league is going to look like.

When I did my comparison of Romo to Brees in the same sense...first 77 games for each...I was almost laughed out of here.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Enlightened29

[SyCo]

When measuring QB ratings, 95 or better is elite. Something Ryan has never accomplished.

When I did my comparison of Romo to Brees in the same sense...first 77 games for each...I was almost laughed out of here.

everyone started laughing when you said romo would eventually surpass brees, despite the fact that he's not a young qb

[Enlightened32]

everyone started laughing when you said romo would eventually surpass brees, despite the fact that he's not a young qb

Young as in age? No. Young as in games played? Yes.

Im not going to get into this again...well just see how things work out.

Id rather have a trophy over records anyway...

[SyCo]

Young as in age? No. Young as in games played? Yes.

Im not going to get into this again...well just see how things work out.

Id rather have a trophy over records anyway...

you can't hear, so i have to tell you

i'm laughing

[Enlightened32]

you can't hear, so i have to tell you

i'm laughing

Well see who gets a ring first...Romo or Ryan...

[SyCo]

Well see who gets a ring first...Romo or Ryan...

romo has no shot. jones is going to lose his **** if romo blows another season. he'll be competing with josh freeman in jacksonville in 2013

[Enlightened32]

romo has no shot. jones is going to lose his **** if romo blows another season. he'll be competing with josh freeman in jacksonville in 2013

Your credibility with me just went out the door. If you can look at Romo's body of work and put Dallas' woes all on him, then you have no idea what you are talking about.

As owner and GM Im pretty sure that Jerry knows that the patchwork Oline that Romo operated behind is not full of Pro Bowlers. They are a bunch of young guys and cheap vets. You get what you pay for.

[Big Bubba]

Not sure if he's a top 100 player going into 2012. We'll see what his peers say about the matter, once the list is complete, based on whether or not he makes it.

Personally.. yeah, I'd have him on the list.

Edited May 24, 2012 by pox 08

[SyCo]

Not sure if he's a top 100 player going into 2012. We'll see what his peers say about the matter, once the list is complete, based on whether or not he makes it.

Personally.. yeah, I'd have him on the list.

pretty sure he didn't make it, and its understandable considering the criteria involVed in compiling the list. as far as the 13 qbs who are probably on it, there's only three i would put him ahead of. maybe four

[Enlightened32]

pretty sure he didn't make it, and its understandable considering the criteria involVed in compiling the list. as far as the 13 qbs who are probably on it, there's only three i would put him ahead of. maybe four

Criteria...I for one would love to know what that is...Peyton is on the list and didnt even play last year.

[SyCo]

Criteria...I for one would love to know what that is...Peyton is on the list and didnt even play last year.

media attention being a huge contributor.

[SuperAINTSfan]

Criteria...I for one would love to know what that is...Peyton is on the list and didnt even play last year.

top player for 2012. not top player of 2011

[Guest ¡Spot on Dtan!]

When measuring QB ratings, 95 or better is elite. Something Ryan has never accomplished.

100 is the benchmark in today's NFL.

Yes that means Romo.

[Big Bubba]

pretty sure he didn't make it, and its understandable considering the criteria involVed in compiling the list. as far as the 13 qbs who are probably on it, there's only three i would put him ahead of. maybe four

In all honesty....... I'd have him above Tebow and at least ranked with Flacco.

[SyCo]

In all honesty....... I'd have him above Tebow and at least ranked with Flacco.

flacco? id put tebow above flacco.

[Serge]

How Ryan is viewed today is greatly affected by the perception of his physical abilities. While Peyton Manning was viewed with no ambiguity whatsoever as a premier talent physically and mentally coming out of college Ryan was seen as a physically solid but not spectacular prospect who nonetheless could succeed in the NFL based on his understanding of the game combined with his accuracy, quick release, and the ability to control games with the mid-range passing game.

In that respect, as a college prospect coming into the NFL he was very similar to Drew Brees with much more ideal height. Brees was considered a cerebral but physically limited quarterback who lacked height and didn't have premier arm strength. Brees was awful early in his career until he achieved a greater understanding of his offense combined with greater confidence and became a capable starter in his fourth year, although he didn't become a genuinely elite quarterback until his New Orleans years.

Ryan was a much better player than Brees in his first few years in the league because he had greater confidence and a better team around him but the fact that he didn't really take off in his fourth year, combined with his very solid but less than explosive or physically dominant third year, has caused people to say he peaked as a player, an accusation that ironically wouldn't be leveled against him if he wasn't so successful his rookie year because he set the bar next to certain HOF quarterbacks and had the same playoff struggles some of them had (playing the NFC Champion and two Super Bowl champions for his playoff opponents, as compared to Manning's similar struggles Brees's one playoff win against Jeff Garcia in his fifth year and first as a Saint).

Personally I have no concern for Ryan's arm strength because I've seen him throw a ball as far as an NFL quarterback would need to throw one on a given play and I've seen him fit the ball in as tight a space as a quarterback will need to do, I doubt he has the ability to do both in a given play but it's rarely a necessity for a player to do so and arm strength is rarely an indicator of a quarterback's eventual success. The perception that he's peaked isn't important to anyone but the fans and the talking heads because he's going to be here for many years to come and whatever the perception is now will change with the coming season no matter what it may bring. Personally I think he didn't have as a good a year as he could have because he's been a rhythm-based quarterback throughout his career so far and he never had the opportunity to build any chemistry with Julio (while Roddy simply didn't have a good year by his standards) and he had a lousy playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl champion aided by a miserable offensive line performance and playcalling that tied him to the weakest link in the offense throughout the game. Next year might be his breakout year, but it might be another learning experience in the first year of a somewhat new system, although I'm certainly hoping for the former and believe it to be a real possibility should the offensive line improve. I don't give weight to the idea that he peaked because it's just his storyline, no different from Peyton Manning's "inability" to win a playoff game and Drew Brees going from awful when he was supposed to be decent, to surprisingly good when he needed to prove he belonged, to the best in the league with a new team that believed in him. The only reason they haven't written the same type narratives for quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Flacco is because Rodgers broke out of Favre's shadow so quickly and Flacco's story hasn't changed much at all yet.

[SaintsH8]

Joe Flacco also compares favorably against that trio's first 4 years. Joe Flacco has 5 playoff wins. Joe Flacco has more mobility and much greater arm strength.

Matt Ryan has poor mobility and lower than league average arm strength. Matt Ryan is a thinking man's QB, with great work habits. Matt Ryan is already very cerebral.

Flacco can get smarter and thus make better use of his arm strength and mobility.

Matt Ryan already plays a very smart QB, but doesn't have elite athletic skills to lean on. Where is this big improvement gonna come from?

His defense won those games.

[Enlightened32]

As a QB if you do not get better after your 3rd year, you arent going to get any better. Thats the consensus on it anyway.

[SaintsH8]

You mean that game he won that he blew everybody away with his 9 completions out of 23 attempts and 0 tds against the dolphins where the defense caused 4 interceptions and caused 2 fumbles(recovered 1). Did you also know that the defense also had 3 sacks in that game? Did you mean that game where he completed 50% of his passes for 1 td, and the defense caused 5 fumbles(recovered 2), and had an interception, the defense also had 1 sack against the titans. How about that game against the patriots where he threw the ball 10 times and completed 4 of those passes. This is the same game where Rice ran for over 150 yards. What about those 3 picks the defense forced, the defense had 3 sacks, and recovered a fumble. Granted he finally showed up in the chiefs game and threw for over 250 yards and 2 tds, the defense still had 3 picks, 2 fumbles that were recovered, and 3 sacks. He did play well against a very good defense and threw 2 tds, but once again the defense had 3 picks 3 fumbles(1 returned). So in his 5 playoff wins the defense has 14 picks, 7 fumbles recovered, and 7 sacks. He played well in 2 of them, so yeah the ravens won their playoff games in spite of Flacco.

I looked this up in a different thread.

[Serge]

As a QB if you do not get better after your 3rd year, you arent going to get any better. Thats the consensus on it anyway.

Whose consensus?