Free Agent Hype Chronicles: Mario Williams, De

[g-dawg]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18601/free-agent-hype-chronicles-mario-williams

Free Agent Hype Chronicles: Mario Williams

By Bill Barnwell on February 29, 2012 2:30 PM EThttp://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2012/0229/grant_g_williams_640.jpg&w=640&h=360Kevin Terrell/Getty Images

Disclaimer: This article is part of my series on free agency from the perspective of the agent, where I prepare Scott Boras-esque "books" that detail where each player stands in the marketplace and why he deserves as much of your team's money as possible. Normally, my goal is to use statistics and historical context to present the most accurate depiction of football that I can, but in this series, all I want to do is convince you to spend money on the player in question. As a result, I may include information or suggest comparisons that I don't necessarily agree with, just as an agent might try to play up his clients' strengths. Keep that in mind when you're reading. (For more on this, check out the Monday piece on Mike Wallace that started this series, and Tuesday's article covering Matt Flynn.)

Once every few years, a game-changing pass-rusher hits the market and inspires his team to hit new defensive heights. Reggie White. Kevin Greene. Julius Peppers. Mario Williams is the next player in that group of legendary acquisitions, a one-man wrecking crew who carried a dormant Texans unit on his back for five seasons. And while those players were acquired after they had passed their athletic primes, Williams just turned 27 in January; he's about to hit his athletic peak. As the most well-rounded and versatile lineman in this year's class, Mario Williams is the sort of player that can make a bad defense good, a good defense great, and a great defense legendary. His combination of proven performance, elite athleticism, and room to grow with age makes him the most valuable defensive player to ever hit unrestricted free agency.

The Preeminent Young Pass-Rusher

Mario Williams creates havoc in the offensive backfield to an extent that only the best defenders in football can match. Unfortunately, because he hasn't had the players around him to complement that rare pass rushing ability, his performances haven't received the sort of notoriety that more prominent players have gotten. The Texans finally put together a secondary to take advantage of Williams' rushing ability in 2011, but after five sacks in five games, Williams suffered his only major injury as a pro, a torn pectoral muscle that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. If we put Williams' performance in context by accounting for that season and the players around him, a masterful pass-rusher is revealed.

What's first impressive about Williams is how successful he has been without the presence of a second significant pass-rusher to play alongside him. Other pass-rushers who have hit free agency in recent years have had dynamic rushers on the other side of the field to take the heat away. Ray Edwards had Jared Allen, and Allen had Tamba Hali. Robert Mathis had Dwight Freeney. There was not a player of any note to operate across from Williams before 2011, and teams keyed on that fact by doubling Williams on virtually every single play.

Despite those double-teams, though, Williams was still able to sack the quarterback at a truly impressive rate. From 2006 through 2010, the Texans sacked opposing passers 143 times. Williams had 48 of those sacks, accounting for more than one of every three Texans sacks by himself. Over that time frame, only two players produced a higher percentage of their team's sacks than Williams did:

PIECE OF THE TEAM SACKS PIE

2006-10 Player Sacks Team Sacks Percentage 1 DeMarcus Ware 72 207.5 34.7% 2 Robert Mathis 48.5 144 33.7% 3 Mario Williams 48 143 33.6% 4 Jared Allen 63 190 33.2% 5 John Abraham 49 154 31.8% 6 Tamba Hali 41.5 136 30.5% 7 Dwight Freeney 43 144 29.9% 8 Julius Peppers 48.5 162.5 29.8% 9 Aaron Kampman 44.5 172 25.9% 10 Trent Cole 52 206 25.2%

Williams was the only Texans player during that five-year stretch to produce six or more sacks in a season, something he did in four consecutive years. Other teams knew that he was coming and that he was the only person they really needed to worry about, and they still couldn't stop him. That says a lot about Williams' ability to be "the man" on a defense, the guy to whom the unit turns when they need a big play.

What's even more incredible is that Williams was doing all this at a remarkably young age. For a 25-year-old to average nearly 10 sacks per season over a five-year stretch is nearly unprecedented. In fact, since the NFL started tracking sacks in 1983, only two players have accrued more sacks by the time they turned 26 than Mario Williams: Derrick Thomas and Dwight Freeney.

SACKS BY THE AGES

Sacks by 26 Player Sacks 1 Derrick Thomas 58 2 Dwight Freeney 51 3 Mario Williams 48 4 Tim Harris 48 5 Terrell Suggs 45 6 Bruce Smith 44.5 7 Simeon Rice 44 8 Shawne Merriman 43.5 9 Jared Allen 43 10 Elvis Dumervil 43

If you want to give Williams credit for that sack-per-game pace and suggest that he would have finished a fully healthy 2011 season with 16 sacks, that would give him a total of 64 sacks through the completion of his age-26 season. The only player with more sacks than that through 26 would be Thomas, and even he would only be two ahead of Williams.

Let's include that 2011 season in the analysis, because once you account for the lost time, Williams' production just becomes all that much more impressive. Over the past five years, Mario Williams has sacked opposing quarterbacks 48.5 times in just 66 games. That's an average of 0.73 sacks per game, or just under 12 sacks per full season. It's a figure that's also only been topped by two players.

SACKING THE AVERAGE

2007-11 Player Team(s) Sacks per Game 1 DeMarcus Ware DAL 1.00 2 Jared Allen MIN/KC 0.99 3 Mario Williams HOU 0.73 4 James Harrison PIT 0.73 5 Trent Cole PHI 0.71 6 Osi Umenyiora NYG 0.71 7 Elvis Dumervil DEN 0.71 8 John Abraham ATL 0.70 9 LaMarr Woodley PIT 0.69 10 Dwight Freeney IND 0.66

Hitting His Peak

Furthermore, whichever team signs Mario Williams as he heads into free agency for the first time can expect to get a player at the top of his game, because elite pass-rushers peak at ages 26-28 before beginning a decline that becomes steep in their 30s. To test this, we took the top 50 pass-rushers (by career sacks) since the NFL started tracking the statistic and measured how many sacks they accrued per game at each age. (We assigned each season to a particular age by noting their birth date as of the opening game of the season.)

Based on how those sack artists performed historically, they peaked at age 27 by sacking quarterbacks 0.71 times per game. Remember from the previous table that Williams has been sacking opposing quarterbacks at a slightly higher rate — 0.73 times per game — over the past five seasons, when he was 22-26. These dominant pass-rushers put up a roughly similar performance at ages 26 and 28 before beginning to decline thereafter.

The real dropoff comes at age 32, when the top 50 pass-rushers average 0.53 sacks per game and never again approach an average above that half-sack-per-game figure. You'll note that the market's two other prominent defensive ends are 31-year-old Robert Mathis and 33-year-old John Abraham. Each of those players have likely already played his best football. Your team can lock up Mario Williams on a five-year deal and actually see him play out the entire contract before he can be expected to suffer any sort of serious decline.

Conclusion

Mario Williams can do a lot of things. He can play as a defensive end in a 4-3. He can move to outside linebacker in a 3-4. He can play the run effectively. He can bounce to either side of the line. What your organization is going to pay Mario Williams to do, though, is rush the passer and create big plays for your defense. And when you put the numbers in their proper context, the only player in football who compares to Mario Williams as a young pass-rusher forced to go it alone is DeMarcus Ware. Other teams will get a veteran and hope that he hasn't lost it. Only one will get the sure thing, a superstar in the prime of his career.

To be quite honest, Mario Williams shouldn't be a free agent. The Houston Texans failing to negotiate a contract extension with Williams before his deal expired will go down as one of the great mistakes in league history, like the Eagles failing to lock up Reggie White, or the Falcons letting Deion Sanders go. Their inability to lock up Williams with the franchise tag is going to be a franchise-defining moment for two teams: the Texans and whatever team is lucky enough to add the most valuable defender in the history of free agency to their roster.

[g-dawg]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18975/free-agent-hype-chronicles-the-other-side

The Other Side:

So now that we've all enjoyed a week of inflating player values, it seems like a good time to quickly highlight the weaknesses in those analyses and identify the arguments that negotiating teams might use to try to drive down each of the four free agents' value. The existence of these counterarguments doesn't make the initial packets that we put together irrelevant, but it should identify some of the weaker logic points. As with the first set of articles, though, these takedowns are strictly based on the perspective of an organization, not my own. My feelings about all these players, truthfully, lie somewhere between the agent-friendly vibes and the organization-friendly ones you're about to read.

Mario Williams:

• Williams has injury issues. In addition to his torn pectoral muscle from 2011 — an injury that recurs easily — Williams suffered a hernia in 2010 that cost him the final few games of the year. Including the two playoff games from this year, Williams has only played in five of Houston's last 16 games.
  
• Houston's defense wasn't very good with him and was very good without him. It's often too easy to note a change in the availability of one player and link it directly to a change in team performance, but Williams was unable to push Houston's defense into even the middle of the pack during his first five years with the team. In year six, Wade Phillips's defense was excellent with Williams in the lineup and equally good without him, as the combination of Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed combined for 17.5 sacks at outside linebacker.
  
• All the cumulative stat tables were designed to account for Williams's absence due to injury, but nobody else's. For the years where Williams stayed healthy, I used cumulative tables that highlighted his raw sack totals without accounting for his games played. When I started to include the years where Williams was struggling to stay healthy, I moved to sacks-per-game statistics that ignored his mediocre rookie season (4.5 sacks in 16 games) while making his partial season in 2011 (five sacks in five games) look like a dominant one.
  

[Xx FaLcOhoLiC Xx]

good read bro, thanks for that!

[g-dawg]

this guy wrote the Up-side and the Down-side. I admit the injuries are a little scary - nothing else scares me though.....

[kiwifalcon]

Hahahahaha Dawg I'm trying not to laugh to much because there are a few AFMBers who implied that I am stupid to jump on this guy but for me this article only reinforces what I yourself and a few others have been saying all along he is that once in a decade type player and can be the cornerstone of our defense for years.

First maon was he costs to much but as proven with clever structuring this isn't an issue.

Secondly all of a sudden he's injury prone,I laughed at that one he's had one major injury in 6 years what a joke...

I'm waiting for Mario to get struck by lightning next that seems to be the next given happening to MW.

H4ll I'll even go as far as saying hey lets make him the richest DE in league history he's the closest thing to the real deal there is in FA man I really hope the FO don't let this oppourtunity pass them by.

Edited March 4, 2012 by kiwifalcon

[ATLFalcfan]

I'm sold on his ability but is he worth what he will cost. IDK?

[g-dawg]

I'm sold on his ability but is he worth what he will cost. IDK?

No "non-Quarterback" is really worth over $10 million per season - but dominant left tackles and defensive ends are very, very valuable and its a seller's market. 32 teams would like to have a player like Mario - but only one will have him. I would rather overpay and get him and go cheaper in a few other places.

[SwampyMux12]

Honestly, it's an exciting prospect that at the same time scares the $#!+ right out of you! On one hand you have the potential to gain a young uber talented superstar... on the other hand, you sink all that money in and if it don't work out you're boned...

Knowing this place, there'll be a bunch of pi$$ed of people either way

[g-dawg]

Honestly, it's an exciting prospect that at the same time scares the $#!+ right out of you! On one hand you have the potential to gain a young uber talented superstar... on the other hand, you sink all that money in and if it don't work out you're boned...

Knowing this place, there'll be a bunch of pi$$ed of people either way

agreed......but nothing ventured, nothing gained. Falcons will never win anything "playing it safe" - there is simply not enough talent to play it safe.

I would rather see Arthur Blank/Dimitroff/Smith/Nolan "go for broke" and fail than play it safe and put a few more mediocre seasons on the board......10-6 and 11-5 and first round exits don't do it for me anymore.

[phattywankenobi]

this guy wrote the Up-side and the Down-side. I admit the injuries are a little scary - nothing else scares me though.....

The only two things I see really is comparing totals for 5 years. That doesn't take into account that some players may have missed a lot more time. The other problem is making the excuse he didn't have a dominant DE counterpart. Ray Edwards isn't drawing double teams and he is going to take half the teams remaining cap money to sign him then he needs to be that dominant player. The other thing I haven't heard is if people think he is a better 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB.

[madman88]

I dnt think anyone deny his ability.. its the fact that money and injuries are just as important as production...

[g-dawg]

The only two things I see really is comparing totals for 5 years. That doesn't take into account that some players may have missed a lot more time. The other problem is making the excuse he didn't have a dominant DE counterpart. Ray Edwards isn't drawing double teams and he is going to take half the teams remaining cap money to sign him then he needs to be that dominant player. The other thing I haven't heard is if people think he is a better 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB.

what players are you thinking are missing from analysis? Mario's numbers are really unquestionable. You can argue injury prone but you cannot really argue his production.

I think the counterpart argument is only a small argument and agree not to put too much emphasis there.

as far as what he is, is he a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB? to me this is an odd question coming from you phatty becaus I know you are a knowledgable dude from being on here so long. Mario is 6'6" and 280lbs - how many 3-4OLBs do you know in NFL that are anywhere near that size. Mario is a Monster 4-3 D-End - as a 3-4 OLB, Mario is a GIANT Monster.

To me, a guy that is the size of Mario even being able to play OLB - truly a freak of nature. I never thought it would work when Wade Phillips talked about moving him to that position - and, I know Mario got hurt 5 games in - but he had 5 sacks in 5 games - truly amazing!!!!

Mario is a freak - he could play 4-3 DE(probably his best positon) but he can also play 3-4 OLB and 3-4DE......he is a one of a kind player.

[vel]

Again, Williams will want to play for a winner, similar to Peppers. Again, of the contenders, the Niners (3-4), Broncos (3-4), Pats (4-3/3-4), and Falcons (Hybrid) are the ones with the most cap room. The Niners probably won't pursue him since they were already a top unit without him. The Broncos have their OLBs already. The Pats aren't prone to big FAs. Falcons have the need.

I think we really do have a solid shot at Williams, not just as a fan. We have the cap room, the record, and the availability and need. It was the same with Peppers and Chicago and Nnamdi and Philly. Williams would just have to want to be here as well. I also think he will want to go back to a 4-3. Yes we will run a hybrid but we aren't a 3-4 team. That doesn't rule us out, and in fact, I think it helps our chances because he can play up and down here.

Let's just say there next 8 days will be VERY interesting and could define our offseason. Add Williams while the Saints drown and I couldn't complain one bit.

[blkbigdog35]

I think Williams is the only guy in FA worth any money in my opinion. He fits a definite need on our D-line and I think he would improve the whole line with his presence.

[g-dawg]

Again, Williams will want to play for a winner, similar to Peppers. Again, of the contenders, the Niners (3-4), Broncos (3-4), Pats (4-3/3-4), and Falcons (Hybrid) are the ones with the most cap room. The Niners probably won't pursue him since they were already a top unit without him. The Broncos have their OLBs already. The Pats aren't prone to big FAs. Falcons have the need.

I think we really do have a solid shot at Williams, not just as a fan. We have the cap room, the record, and the availability and need. It was the same with Peppers and Chicago and Nnamdi and Philly. Williams would just have to want to be here as well. I also think he will want to go back to a 4-3. Yes we will run a hybrid but we aren't a 3-4 team. That doesn't rule us out, and in fact, I think it helps our chances because he can play up and down here.

Let's just say there next 8 days will be VERY interesting and could define our offseason. Add Williams while the Saints drown and I couldn't complain one bit.

i like the way your brain works, vel

[Falcons 'til Death]

How is his pectoral muscle injury more significant than Abe's groin issues? I bet Abe has missed just as much time during his career ( or more ) with that ailment. And if I remember correctly, Abe missed a good portion of his last season with the Jets due to the groin.

A torn pectoral is not a career threatning injury. It's the same injury Kerney suffered his last year here, and he bounced back to record 15 1/2 sacks the next year.

[MattRyansArm]

Why would Mario go to the Falcons and become an instant nobody ??? Shortly after putting on that horrendously boring uniform his career will become unimportant as well. Name one person on the Falcons roster that anyone really gives a crap about? No one in the media is even interested. Even Tony G has become boring and unmentioned since joining. Face it, your team will never land someone that is so coveted, mainly because you will never win a superbowl, or even come close for a long long time.

I guess what im trying to say is, holy **** your team is boring. No swagger, no charisma, no personalities on either side. Matt Ryan is the perfect leader for you guys, his personality defines you perfectly.

[falconsd56]

I just like him because he looks like a black aaron lewis of staind

[kiwifalcon]

Again, Williams will want to play for a winner, similar to Peppers. Again, of the contenders, the Niners (3-4), Broncos (3-4), Pats (4-3/3-4), and Falcons (Hybrid) are the ones with the most cap room. The Niners probably won't pursue him since they were already a top unit without him. The Broncos have their OLBs already. The Pats aren't prone to big FAs. Falcons have the need.

I think we really do have a solid shot at Williams, not just as a fan. We have the cap room, the record, and the availability and need. It was the same with Peppers and Chicago and Nnamdi and Philly. Williams would just have to want to be here as well. I also think he will want to go back to a 4-3. Yes we will run a hybrid but we aren't a 3-4 team. That doesn't rule us out, and in fact, I think it helps our chances because he can play up and down here.

Let's just say there next 8 days will be VERY interesting and could define our offseason. Add Williams while the Saints drown and I couldn't complain one bit.

I see FFS1970 hating on you in another thread of this nature be careful holding a strong stance like this in the Mario stakes could move you down in the stakes as a credible poster..lol..lol..

[kiwifalcon]

How is his pectoral muscle injury more significant than Abe's groin issues? I bet Abe has missed just as much time during his career ( or more ) with that ailment. And if I remember correctly, Abe missed a good portion of his last season with the Jets due to the groin.

A torn pectoral is not a career threatning injury. It's the same injury Kerney suffered his last year here, and he bounced back to record 15 1/2 sacks the next year.

Exactly people are reaching and are using this as another excuse seriously.MW has had one bad injury in 6 seasons and all of a sudden the guys injury prone hahahahahahahaha that has to be the weakest argument that has come up thus far.

[vel]

Why would Mario go to the Falcons and become an instant nobody ??? Shortly after putting on that horrendously boring uniform his career will become unimportant as well. Name one person on the Falcons roster that anyone really gives a crap about? No one in the media is even interested. Even Tony G has become boring and unmentioned since joining. Face it, your team will never land someone that is so coveted, mainly because you will never win a superbowl, or even come close for a long long time.

I guess what im trying to say is, holy **** your team is boring. No swagger, no charisma, no personalities on either side. Matt Ryan is the perfect leader for you guys, his personality defines you perfectly.

Go cry about Bountygate somewhere else. The Saints reign is officially over. Move on

I see FFS1970 hating on you in another thread of this nature be careful holding a strong stance like this in the Mario stakes could move you down in the stakes as a credible poster..lol..lol..

Lol I have gotten used to him. He really is jealous of me I think. He tries so hard to discredit my posts when they are actually based mostly on facts and logic. I love when he hijacks a thread with a "Yall Boys" or "Trust me!"

[Falcons 'til Death]

Exactly people are reaching and are using this as another excuse seriously.MW has had one bad injury in 6 seasons and all of a sudden the guys injury prone hahahahahahahaha that has to be the weakest argument that has come up thus far.

Agreed.

[phattywankenobi]

what players are you thinking are missing from analysis? Mario's numbers are really unquestionable. You can argue injury prone but you cannot really argue his production.

I think the counterpart argument is only a small argument and agree not to put too much emphasis there.

as far as what he is, is he a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB? to me this is an odd question coming from you phatty becaus I know you are a knowledgable dude from being on here so long. Mario is 6'6" and 280lbs - how many 3-4OLBs do you know in NFL that are anywhere near that size. Mario is a Monster 4-3 D-End - as a 3-4 OLB, Mario is a GIANT Monster.

To me, a guy that is the size of Mario even being able to play OLB - truly a freak of nature. I never thought it would work when Wade Phillips talked about moving him to that position - and, I know Mario got hurt 5 games in - but he had 5 sacks in 5 games - truly amazing!!!!

Mario is a freak - he could play 4-3 DE(probably his best positon) but he can also play 3-4 OLB and 3-4DE......he is a one of a kind player.

I know what I think based on his size. I was curious as to what other people might think about his speed in 3-4. I think he had some impressive numbers in the 4-3 in spite of his first year.

My only hesitation is he does have a few question marks whereas guys like Peppers maybe had one about his heart. From a key stat viewpoint he seems like a more certain thing than than Hartwell or Price. Those guys had that one great year and then faded away. I'm just saying before you make this guy the highest paid player on the team including the QB they needs to poke and prod every concern of weakness. As excited as I would be to have a big time pass rusher I guess I am seeing him as a little less than perfect than some.

[vel]

I know what I think based on his size. I was curious as to what other people might think about his speed in 3-4. I think he had some impressive numbers in the 4-3 in spite of his first year.

My only hesitation is he does have a few question marks whereas guys like Peppers maybe had one about his heart. From a key stat viewpoint he seems like a more certain thing than than Hartwell or Price. Those guys had that one great year and then faded away. I'm just saying before you make this guy the highest paid player on the team including the QB they needs to poke and prod every concern of weakness. As excited as I would be to have a big time pass rusher I guess I am seeing him as a little less than perfect than some.

Fair enough and I give you that wank. That's why I respect when you have deferring views. It's not emotionally driven or irrational. Yes, Williams has concerns, but I don't think they are too bad. The one thing that worries me is the pec injury. I think no help and an average scheme held some production back. He still racked up a good amount of sacks, but look at the boom in production for him and the overall defense in Wade's scheme. He finally had players along that line that could draw attention away and he was averaging a sack a game. Plus, he is in the prime of his career and is a true All Pro.

[phattywankenobi]

Fair enough and I give you that wank. That's why I respect when you have deferring views. It's not emotionally driven or irrational. Yes, Williams has concerns, but I don't think they are too bad. The one thing that worries me is the pec injury. I think no help and an average scheme held some production back. He still racked up a good amount of sacks, but look at the boom in production for him and the overall defense in Wade's scheme. He finally had players along that line that could draw attention away and he was averaging a sack a game. Plus, he is in the prime of his career and is a true All Pro.

I think MW is a good and can possibly be a great player. It's just this team seems to keep missing on DL prospects who are supposed to be great. So I would say MW is at the prime of his career and I would much rather pay him the 12M+ than Abraham. If they have to get one big FA acquisition and more than likely at his price tag they will only get one I would say get Mario and don't pay 8M+ for Nicks. The guard spot is a big concern but I think there is plenty of talent in free agency and possibly the draft.

In the end if TD misses on Mario and I've heard the "can't miss player" hype plenty of times before then TD is as good as gone. In the end TD showed he has the cajones to go for it.