A Tdwii Observation - The Case Against Mario Williams

[TheDirtyWordII]

The Case Against Mario Williams…

Williams has been the subject of much debate over the course of the past month. The prospect of his free agency has reached Haynesworthian proportions. I have to admit, I’m intrigued by the possibility here. But I want to make sure I’m seeing things through a clear lens and not rose colored.

Has missed 14 of a possible 32 games the last two seasons: This speaks for itself. His injuries also have been of the ‘soft tissue’ variety (two sports hernias, torn pectoral muscle). That worries me…this isn't a leg being broken, or even an ACL which seem to come back to 100% even if it takes some time. Soft tissue injuries can be not only lingering but can be a pre-cursor to additional soft tissue injuries. John Abraham had a sports hernia and even after being healed, always seemed to have to take care of it. That 'core'...if it gets out of whack, can become a chronic condition.

Houston didn’t miss him at all: Fact is, prior to Wade Phillips arrival, HOU finished better than 22^nd in overall defense only once (2009 – 13^th) during Williams career. Can this all be blamed on Williams…of course not. But it would seem that the acquisition of a veteran NFL defensive mind was more important to them than Williams. Sure JJ Watt & Connor Barwin emerged as big time players, but they were without Williams for the majority of the year and finished 2^nd. Why was that? To me, if you're the #1 overall pick at a marquee position, shouldn't you be the defining force for that unit? Defense is different than offense - require 11 guys working together. Not like offense, where if you lose your QB, you could be up shytes creek. But, I can't figure out why Williams despite his prodigious talents, hasn't stepped up to being more of a defining foundation piece for the Texans.

$15M/year: That’s what it’s going to take. A lot of cheddar. I don’t mind paying fair market value for talent for sure…and you can make an argument that market value is whatever the Washington Redskins are willing to pay. But if this is what Williams could command on the open market, is his production what you would expect out of such an investment? Let’s look at his career and take out his rookie year. On a per game basis, this is what he produced when you prorate his production over a 16 game schedule.

47 tackles

11.75 sacks

5 TFL’s

2 PD’s

2.4 FF’s

…these are solid numbers, but they don’t blow me away. And let’s be fair about saying that the averages are spruced up by his production in the 2007-2008 time period. Fact is, those numbers above look like John Abraham who over the last 5 years (prorated)…produced as follows.

37 tackles

11.2 sacks

4.5 TFL’s

2.5 PD’s

3 FF’s

When Abraham signed 6 years ago, he signed for an average of $7.5M/year and this is what he produced. I get that the salary cap has gone up, and players salaries have to be inflated to reflect fair market value. But 100% in 6 years? Hmmm….

With $15M, are we getting a better player than John Abraham? The best DE in the NFL IMO is Jared Allen. Here’s how he compares in those categories (prorated):

60 tackles

16 sacks

6.75 TFL’s

7 PD’s

3.25 FF’s

4 years ago, Allen signed a $12M+/year contract. We just saw Jason Pierre-Paul almost redefine the DE position with his length and athleticism…length and athleticism that Williams can match or at least come close to. But for the most part, we’ve seen Williams produce at a level maybe a bit higher than John Abraham, but not even close to the truly elite DE’s in the NFL.

Does Williams have the talent to do it? Absolutely…he was after all drafted #1 overall. And there have been times when his dominance has not only flashed but persisted. Probably the last time he consistently produced though was 2008.

Are we signing Williams at the expense of Lofton?: Now, I do believe that the Falcons can get done what they need to get done on the re-signing front while making a big play in free agency. Whether it be Williams or Nicks, or someone else…the Falcons with some shrewd salary cap maneuvering and working out an extension with Matt Ryan, should be able to keep Grimes, keep Lofton…and re-sign some role players. Sure…salary cap room will need to be consumed, but it’s there to be consumed.

However, let’s say the Falcons find themselves in an either/or situation. It’s clear Grimes is staying. It’s not as clear about Lofton. So in an either/or situation, what exactly are we gaining if we don’t re-sign Lofton? I ask this because Williams has never been a ‘tackle’ monster. And that’s fine, Allen & Pierre-Paul are rarities.

But the past two seasons, teams have passed against the Falcons on 61.6% of their offensive snaps. Seasons in which Lofton has become a premier run stuffing MLB. His presence in the middle dictates play-calling. If Akeem Dent is now our MLB…does that percentage of passing plays go down? Does that play to Williams’ strengths?

SUMMARY: Am I sold on the fact that we shouldn’t make a play for Mario? No…he is an enticing talent and there is a part of me that sees the potential here. But the practical and pragmatic part of me also says that this guy isn’t the guy people are claiming him to be…his production bears that out, and if you are going to pay a guy $100M, shouldn’t he have played in at least 60% of the games his team played in the last two seasons? Fact is – if he makes it to the open market, he’s going to cash in and he’s going to cash in at a price level that outweighs his production by a significant margin.

[k-train]

well done

[Flying Falcon]

Now, we're getting somewhere.

[jdub051082]

Bravo, the summary rapes it up.

[Mr. Right]

Once again, if you can't generate consistent pressure with 4 guys, you won't have a top defense. Blitzing is for playing against rookie and below average QBs, QBs that can't read the defense quickly enough, and certain passing situations such as 2nd/3rd and long or at the end of the game.

Nolan may be a better DC, but he won't be successful if our front 4 can't generate pressure. Top QBs in the league play best against the blitz. If it's 3rd and 3, a blitz will lead to a checkdown to someone like Sproles for a 1st down. Brees, Rodgers, etc.. will find that mismatch against the blitz. We need enough guys to cover while the 4 guys generate pressure. It doesn't have to be the front 4, but it needs to be 4 or less guys.

This philosophy of not focusing on the pass rush with 4 will allow us to do well during the regular season as we beat up guys like Gabbert and Painter, but we will fall short again when we face the elite QBs.

But then again, it's just business as usual at the Flowery Branch.

Edited February 28, 2012 by Mr. Right

[HASHBROWN3]

Nice rundown Dirty! Good job. 2 things.

1) Houston did not miss him because they have some very special players that could step in and perform at a high level.

2) MW physical skills and size are immense and the team that makes the big move will be basing the move on FUTURE impact, not necessarily what he has already accomplished.

You might just say that MW could potentially be a boom or bust guy. For the size of the contract, he could potentially take a club to the next level or set it back considerably.

Our last big deal with JJ was a win win for us and the Browns. Are the falcons feeling it again?

Edited February 28, 2012 by HASHBROWN3

[Swift&Change]

gdawg is not going to like this thread

[Smiler11]

Great post as usual, although I have to contend a few points: firstly I would much rather sign a player coming off a soft tissue injury than an ACL - sure soft tissue injuries can be lingering, but an ACL can have a devasting effect on a players explosiveness.

Secondly, from a stats perspective it is easy to say Mario is overated, but a lot of what Mario Williams does doesn't show up on the stat sheet. A lot of stock is put into sacks when it comes to valuing DE's, but to find a complete DE, who plays both the run and pass at an elite level is a rarity. In that respect, Mario is the closest thing to Julius Peppers - another player when looking at stats alone you could say is overated.

[paulitik]

Bravo, the summary rapes it up.

[kiwifalcon]

Very good as usual TDW I have been on the sign MW bandwagon for a few weeks now but as usual you bring up several valid points.

For me every defense has a cornerstone and I've yet to see who this is going foward for the Falcons and as one poster mentioned if I pull the trigger I'm basing this on what MW provides me going foward as I still believe this kid has'nt shown his full potiential as yet.

Versatility is his advantage over other DE's and with the fact that Nolan wants to use a 34 aswell as a 43 as a base I think he's aperfect fit as for what we want to do going foward he can effect the game in both defenses if his 5 sacks in 5 games last year were anything to go by as a OLBer.

All the same very good post and your points about not signing MW are well recieved with me.

[phattywankenobi]

It's refreshing that more people understand his value versus pay day. Mario is this years hype in free agency. He's a pretty good player who will get paid like the greatest.

[Mr. Right]

It's refreshing that more people understand his value versus pay day. Mario is this years hype in free agency. He's a pretty good player who will get paid like the greatest.

Value gets you someone like Ray Edwards. 2 Ray Edwards can't generate the pressure Mario Williams can.

[HASHBROWN3]

Very good as usual TDW I have been on the sign MW bandwagon for a few weeks now but as usual you bring up several valid points.

For me every defense has a cornerstone and I've yet to see who this is going foward for the Falcons and as one poster mentioned if I pull the trigger I'm basing this on what MW provides me going foward as I still believe this kid has'nt shown his full potiential as yet.

Versatility is his advantage over other DE's and with the fact that Nolan wants to use a 34 aswell as a 43 as a base I think he's aperfect fit as for what we want to do going foward he can effect the game in both defenses if his 5 sacks in 5 games last year were anything to go by as a OLBer.

All the same very good post and your points about not signing MW are well recieved with me.

This is definitely a great point Kiwi... regardless of what the falcons plan on doing, I bet this was discussed at our planning table... the key will be $15M...

[Master Exploder]

Very good post.

However, I'm all for signing Mario Williams.

You have to realize that guys like John Abraham and Jared Allen aren't normal. They are also much older than Mario Williams and if you're looking at a pure statistic stand-point, then you also have to factor in that several of these guys that put up great numbers do not play every down like Mario Williams.

I understand 15 million is a lot of money, but he's a top 5 complete DE in this league and he's managed to do that by the age of 26. He's probably the most athletic DE in respect to his size also. These guys do not grow on trees, so I don't see why avoid paying the man. It's a premier position and probably the most important outside of QB.

[Flying Falcon]

Do you guys remember Javon Kearse? The Freak? How athletic, strong, quick, and just plain out freaky that guy was on coming out of Florida State. Went on to play in Tn, then got hurt. Career over. Bounced around for a few years and then out the league.

[phattywankenobi]

Value gets you someone like Ray Edwards. 2 Ray Edwards can't generate the pressure Mario Williams can.

The hyped top free agent CB in 2010 was Dunta. Good thing they didn't pay him like Nnamdi. Funny how people would pay 15M for an always injured guy with less than stellar numbers but they think they can pay one of the better MLB's in the league a bag of donuts and some skittles.

[HASHBROWN3]

Is he Kearse or is he that every down playa who can kill in both a 3/4 or 4/3??? Million dollar question... no pun intended... One thing is for sure, he will be suiting up in 2012...

[vel]

To be fair, Jared Allen didn't become the player he is now until he got to MIN. He had 42.5 sacks in his time with KC. That's 10.6 per. In MW's first first seasons (ironically his only full seasons), he pumped out 39.5, or 10 sacks per.

I am neither for nor against MW. I think he would be great to have but isn't a necessity. He brings a lot more to the table than guys like Abe and Allen do (more positions as opposed to just RE). But he has health concerns and isn't a sack machine. We will see.

[HASHBROWN3]

The hyped top free agent CB in 2010 was Dunta. Good thing they didn't pay him like Nnamdi. Funny how people would pay 15M for an always injured guy with less than stellar numbers but they think they can pay one of the better MLB's in the league a bag of donuts and some skittles.

We may have to throw in some of those tiny, paperless, reeses peanut butter cups too

[Flying Falcon]

Is he Kearse or is he that every down playa who can kill in both a 3/4 or 4/3??? Million dollar question... no pun intended... One thing is for sure, he will be suiting up in 2012...

Precisely!!!! Is the that guy that will eventually disappear because of his injuries and now is trying to get his one big PAY DAY or is he that guy that will bounce back and show the world what an ELITE DE looks like? So many questions and so few answers.

[HASHBROWN3]

If we signed the big man, I would love to see drew brees get body slammed that measures on the richter scale...

[cooperbh]

Value gets you someone like Ray Edwards. 2 Ray Edwards can't generate the pressure Mario Williams can.

A gimpy Edwards can't generate the pressure Mario Williams can. A healthy Edwards, however...

2010

Williams: 11 sacks, 13 QB hits, 36 pressures (793 snaps)

Edwards: 9 sacks, 7 QB hits, 52 pressures (764 snaps)

2009

Williams: 10 sacks, 17 QB hits, 29 pressures (952 snaps)

Edwards: 9 sacks, 22 QB hits, 35 pressures (874 snaps)

It's a moot point anyway. Williams isn't coming here.

[Master Exploder]

The hyped top free agent CB in 2010 was Dunta. Good thing they didn't pay him like Nnamdi. Funny how people would pay 15M for an always injured guy with less than stellar numbers but they think they can pay one of the better MLB's in the league a bag of donuts and some skittles.

Dunta Robinson was 1 of 2 decent CB's hitting the market that year. Most people considered Leigh Bodden to be #2. There weren't specials on SportsCenter about where he may land or hundreds of articles written about where he's going to go and what-not. He was the best of a bad class. Everyone knew a team was going to over pay for him, because there weren't other options. He was probably a top 15 CB at best at the time of his contract...

Mario Williams is a top 5 player at his position and he's the youngest and most physically gifted out of the other top DE's. I don't see how people keep trying to compare both situations.

[g-dawg]

The Case Against Mario Williams…

Williams has been the subject of much debate over the course of the past month. The prospect of his free agency has reached Haynesworthian proportions. I have to admit, I’m intrigued by the possibility here. But I want to make sure I’m seeing things through a clear lens and not rose colored.

Has missed 14 of a possible 32 games the last two seasons: This speaks for itself. His injuries also have been of the ‘soft tissue’ variety (two sports hernias, torn pectoral muscle). That worries me…this isn't a leg being broken, or even an ACL which seem to come back to 100% even if it takes some time. Soft tissue injuries can be not only lingering but can be a pre-cursor to additional soft tissue injuries. John Abraham had a sports hernia and even after being healed, always seemed to have to take care of it. That 'core'...if it gets out of whack, can become a chronic condition.

Houston didn’t miss him at all: Fact is, prior to Wade Phillips arrival, HOU finished better than 22^nd in overall defense only once (2009 – 13^th) during Williams career. Can this all be blamed on Williams…of course not. But it would seem that the acquisition of a veteran NFL defensive mind was more important to them than Williams. Sure JJ Watt & Connor Barwin emerged as big time players, but they were without Williams for the majority of the year and finished 2^nd. Why was that? To me, if you're the #1 overall pick at a marquee position, shouldn't you be the defining force for that unit? Defense is different than offense - require 11 guys working together. Not like offense, where if you lose your QB, you could be up shytes creek. But, I can't figure out why Williams despite his prodigious talents, hasn't stepped up to being more of a defining foundation piece for the Texans.

$15M/year: That’s what it’s going to take. A lot of cheddar. I don’t mind paying fair market value for talent for sure…and you can make an argument that market value is whatever the Washington Redskins are willing to pay. But if this is what Williams could command on the open market, is his production what you would expect out of such an investment? Let’s look at his career and take out his rookie year. On a per game basis, this is what he produced when you prorate his production over a 16 game schedule.

47 tackles

11.75 sacks

5 TFL’s

2 PD’s

2.4 FF’s

…these are solid numbers, but they don’t blow me away. And let’s be fair about saying that the averages are spruced up by his production in the 2007-2008 time period. Fact is, those numbers above look like John Abraham who over the last 5 years (prorated)…produced as follows.

37 tackles

11.2 sacks

4.5 TFL’s

2.5 PD’s

3 FF’s

When Abraham signed 6 years ago, he signed for an average of $7.5M/year and this is what he produced. I get that the salary cap has gone up, and players salaries have to be inflated to reflect fair market value. But 100% in 6 years? Hmmm….

With $15M, are we getting a better player than John Abraham? The best DE in the NFL IMO is Jared Allen. Here’s how he compares in those categories (prorated):

60 tackles

16 sacks

6.75 TFL’s

7 PD’s

3.25 FF’s

4 years ago, Allen signed a $12M+/year contract. We just saw Jason Pierre-Paul almost redefine the DE position with his length and athleticism…length and athleticism that Williams can match or at least come close to. But for the most part, we’ve seen Williams produce at a level maybe a bit higher than John Abraham, but not even close to the truly elite DE’s in the NFL.

Does Williams have the talent to do it? Absolutely…he was after all drafted #1 overall. And there have been times when his dominance has not only flashed but persisted. Probably the last time he consistently produced though was 2008.

Are we signing Williams at the expense of Lofton?: Now, I do believe that the Falcons can get done what they need to get done on the re-signing front while making a big play in free agency. Whether it be Williams or Nicks, or someone else…the Falcons with some shrewd salary cap maneuvering and working out an extension with Matt Ryan, should be able to keep Grimes, keep Lofton…and re-sign some role players. Sure…salary cap room will need to be consumed, but it’s there to be consumed.

However, let’s say the Falcons find themselves in an either/or situation. It’s clear Grimes is staying. It’s not as clear about Lofton. So in an either/or situation, what exactly are we gaining if we don’t re-sign Lofton? I ask this because Williams has never been a ‘tackle’ monster. And that’s fine, Allen & Pierre-Paul are rarities.

But the past two seasons, teams have passed against the Falcons on 61.6% of their offensive snaps. Seasons in which Lofton has become a premier run stuffing MLB. His presence in the middle dictates play-calling. If Akeem Dent is now our MLB…does that percentage of passing plays go down? Does that play to Williams’ strengths?

SUMMARY: Am I sold on the fact that we shouldn’t make a play for Mario? No…he is an enticing talent and there is a part of me that sees the potential here. But the practical and pragmatic part of me also says that this guy isn’t the guy people are claiming him to be…his production bears that out, and if you are going to pay a guy $100M, shouldn’t he have played in at least 60% of the games his team played in the last two seasons? Fact is – if he makes it to the open market, he’s going to cash in and he’s going to cash in at a price level that outweighs his production by a significant margin.

TDWIII,

I brag on your posts more than anybody but IMHO you are just wrong here. I will take your points one at a time:

1) injuries: I see nothing but randomness in Mario's injuries. a torn pectoral muscle is a freak thing that happens from time-to-time in athletes. Heck, Hawks starting center - Al Horford - tore his pectoral muscle and he is a basketball player. Would I rather Mario have not been injured? Sure, but I see no pattern here. I will give this point some credence but not enough to make a case against Mario.

2) Houston did not miss him: Well, Houston has a loaded front 7 - besides Mario Williams they have JJ Watt, Conner Barwin, Brooks Reed, Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans. They've got another decent 3-4 D-End whose name escapes me now - they are loaded - on top of that. When Mario went down, they brought in their 2nd round draft pick - Brooks Reed - who is pretty darn good. On top of this, Texans have a really good D-Coordinator in Wade Phillips. So intimating that the Texans did not miss Mario Williams like its some kind of indictment on Mario Williams is disingenious at best.

3) $15million/yr - will it take that? probably.....it will take at least $14mil/yr. Is he worth it? Well no one can know for sure until you look back with hindsight - which is always 20/20. Comparing him to John Abraham - they are different players. Abe is a sack artist for sure - but he's also 34yrs old now and he has never been good against the run. Abe is like 6'3" and 260lbs. Mario is 6'6" and 281lbs. Mario can stop the run, rush the passer - bull rush/slide around the end and he can even play inside in exotic blitz packages. Mario has drawn the double team and will continue far more than John Abraham ever did. When you look at raw numbers, you are not taking into account the total impact of a player. If Sean Weatherspoon gets an extra 4 sacks next year because he delays and shoots right through the gap because the tackle and the guard are blocking Mario - well certainly the sack goes in Spoon's column - not Mario's - but the threat of Mario helped create the sack. Agree that $15million is a lot of cheese - if Mario stays healthy - I think he can be worth it.

4) Signing Mario at expense of Lofton? If we are, I've got no problem with that. I will take the combination of Mario and whatever other MLB you want to say starts over Abe/Lofton or Mathis/Lofton or whatever. Its not even close.

[Flying Falcon]

Here is the list of FAs when D. Robinson was a free agent.

http://profootball.scout.com/a.z?s=127&p=9&c=12&yr=2009&nid=83&lnid=83&rc=16&pid=30

Edited February 28, 2012 by Flying Falcon