Here’S What The Falcons Will – And Won’T – Do This Offseason

[theProf]

Here’s what the Falcons will – and won’t – do this offseason

11:30 am February 22, 2012, by Mark Bradley

The NFL scouting combine commences this weekend. Free agency begins next month. April brings the draft. Before the cutting and pasting begins, we offer semi-educated guesses as to what the Falcons will/won’t do.

They will keep Sam Baker. The website Pro Football Focus rated Baker the second-worst tackle in the NFL last season, but he wasn’t always so hapless. A lot of things had to go wrong to render a serviceable left tackle so ineffective, and a back injury was only part of it. The Falcons fired line coach Paul Boudreau, who had lost faith in Baker, and will give Pat Hill, hired as a replacement, every chance to rebuild Baker’s self-esteem.

They will rely on Hill to set a tone, and not just with Baker. Hill hasn’t worked in the NFL since 1996, but his aggressive approach as head coach — he dared to play Anyone Anywhere Anytime — put Fresno State on the map. This O-line could stand some prodding. It was revealing that the Falcons’ front couldn’t muster the required push on three infamous fourth-and-1’s. It was also revealing that Mike Johnson, a 312-pound guard taken in Round 3 in 2010 after playing at Alabama under a rather exacting head coach, never found favor with Boudreau.

They won’t trade up into Round 1. Owing to last season’s five-picks-for-Julio-Jones deal, the Falcons don’t have a first-round choice 2012. General manager Thomas Dimitroff’s preference would be for this draft to play itself out and his organization to get back on schedule. Sure, he’d waver if Indianapolis called and said, “We’ll give you the No. 1 pick for Michael Turner.” But Indy won’t.

They will keep Michael Turner. The best-case scenario is that the Falcons will get one more big season from the big back, and logic holds that you should trade a guy one year too soon, as opposed to one year too late. But what sort of return would Turner, who’s 30, bring? Would you trade a 1,000-yard back for a fifth-round pick? Wouldn’t you be better served letting him work behind a retooled line under a new offensive coordinator who might actually direct a screen pass the big back’s way?

They won’t be crushed if Curtis Lofton leaves. The middle linebacker is a three-year starter and a fierce tackler, but there’s growing sentiment that he’s a liability against the pass. The question thus becomes: Would you pay $8 million a year for a two-down linebacker? At the right price, the Falcons would love to keep Lofton. If he does depart, they’d give Akeem Dent, the Georgia product taken in Round 3 last year, a long look in the middle.

They will slap the franchise tag on Brent Grimes. The Falcons could apply this tag, which allows a team to hang onto a free agent for another year at a much higher price, to any of several defenders — Lofton, John Abraham, Thomas DeCoud — but cornerback seems the area of greatest need. (And DeCoud figures to be more affordable as a long-term re-up.)

They won’t spend big to keep Abraham. Of the Falcons’ 33 sacks last season, he produced 9 1/2. But Abraham will turn 34 in May, and he has a history of injury. It’s scary to think that a team incapable of sustaining a pass rush would shed its best pass rusher, but remember what new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan after his hiring: “I’d rather have 10 guys get four sacks than four guys get 10.”

They won’t pursue Hines Ward. As much as the Falcons would welcome the locker-room presence of Ward, who’s from Forest Park and who played at UGA and who may be cut by Pittsburgh, there would have to be an on-field component to warrant such a hire. Ward will turn 36 next month, and he plays a position where speed is of some essence. As great a pro as he has been, he doesn’t have much left.

In the tradition of “urgent” and “explosive,” they will adopt a new watchword: “Daring.” In the ne0-NFL, it would seem impossible for the 10th-ranked offense to oppose the 27th-ranked defense and to make no turnovers and miss no field goals and still not score a point. But that was the Falcons’ wretched lot in their playoff loss to New York, and there’s only one rational explanation: They played scared.

Mike Smith didn’t coach scared — he went for it on two fourth-and-1’s — but the message didn’t resonate. Matt Ryan threw 41 passes to no effect, and how in the neo-NFL can a big-time quarterback leave no imprint? Dirk Koetter, the new coordinator, has to render Ryan daring again. (It isn’t as if he was always risk-averse: He threw 19 interceptions in 14 games as a Boston College senior.)

For inspiration, the Falcons can turn to their nemesis. In 12 Saints-Falcons games, Drew Brees has thrown 11 interceptions, and that’s a fat number. His team, however, has won 10 of those games. The Falcons have allowed timidity to dilute their conspicuous talent, and that starts — and needs to end — with the quarterback. It’s time for Matty Ice to become Matty Fire.

By Mark Bradley

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2012/02/22/heres-what-the-falcons-will-and-wont-do-this-offseason/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley_blog

[freebird310]

They will keep Sam Baker

[The Don™]

They will keep Sam Baker.

[A-TowN.-]

Why is he writing for Ajc when he is apparently a psychic

[jfalconsp]

Not really fond of any of those points.

[1989Fan]

I think Baker will be determined by what the team dos at LT in UFA.

If they get a guy like McNeil or Collins, Baker ill be gone the same day.

You dont carry a 3M or so cap hit on a backup OT.

If they do not get a guy in UFA, Baker will be kept going into camp. If he doesnt win the starting job, he will be released. For the same reason I said above.

summary: If Baker doesnt win the starting job, he is gone.

[jfalconsp]

I think Baker will be determined by what the team dos at LT in UFA.

If they get a guy like McNeil or Collins, Baker ill be gone the same day.

You dont carry a 3M or so cap hit on a backup OT.

If they do not get a guy in UFA, Baker will be kept going into camp. If he doesnt win the starting job, he will be released. For the same reason I said above.

summary: If Baker doesnt win the starting job, he is gone.

i.e. they should just cut him now then?

[Creative]

I like/agree with most things. Def. not Baker though.

[1989Fan]

i.e. they should just cut him now then?

I wouldnt question the FO over it, that's for sure.

I just dont get how as a rookie (when yo should struggle most) Baker looked very promising, about as good as the kid from Denver. But every year after he has just gotten worse.

I really think Baker has lost his confidence 100%. After the CAR game when he was put in @ RG and blew it, you could see it in his face. He just looked like he believed he didnt belong in the NFL anymore.

SHAVE THAT BEARD SAM, AND STOP BEING A PANSY! GO OUT THERE, GET YOUR MOJO BACK OR RETIRE!

[theProf]

I wouldnt question the FO over it, that's for sure.

I just dont get how as a rookie (when yo should struggle most) Baker looked very promising, about as good as the kid from Denver. But every year after he has just gotten worse.

I really think Baker has lost his confidence 100%. After the CAR game when he was put in @ RG and blew it, you could see it in his face. He just looked like he believed he didnt belong in the NFL anymore.

SHAVE THAT BEARD SAM, AND STOP BEING A PANSY! GO OUT THERE, GET YOUR MOJO BACK OR RETIRE!

Agree that Baker showed real promise his rookie season. During the subsequent years, I don't know if the injuries took their toll, or he just lost his will to play football. Last year he looked downright awful when he was playing. He was very dejected and a beaten man after the very brief experiment at RG blew-up.

[kane#7]

I only disagree with the Franchising Grimes and letting Baker stay.

[Stolenn87]

This is why this franchise will never win a **** thing. Baker needs to go, Lofton needs to stay, Abe needs to stay. You need players that can get the job done, no matter what the scheme is.....

[Psychic Gibbon]

When was Baker serviceable?

[PokerSteve]

Wow. This article is a vivid reminder of how easy it has always been for the FO of this franchise to go hyper-stupid and end up at the bottom of the NFL standings almost every year since they came into existence. If this article is accurate, look for yet another quick descent into the toilet starting next year.

[falcon057]

Gosh I feel warm and fuzzy all over now

What an Idiot he might get one right by mistake. Grimes? if no problems. to buy one year

[egoprime II]

Gosh I feel warm and fuzzy all over now

What an Idiot he might get one right by mistake. Grimes? if no problems. to buy one year

Giving Grimes a one year deal is a mistake. Remember the playoffs? Like any guy in the last year of his contract, Grimes was, basically, looking at playing the Giants without a contract, and he was already hurting.

Suppose we go into the playoffs again this year, is Grimes going to play? How can anyone know for sure? Can the Falcons afford to risk that?

[AtlanticFit]

this

[Aftermath]

using the tag on Grimes would be a terrible option

[SwampyMux12]

When I think of the franchise tag I think of players who you absolutely cannot replace... Grimes and Lofton really aren't those types of guys. I would rather see the money go elsewhere. Don't get me wrong, they are both really good players but not "franchise" type guys IMO. They're two guys who can be replaced by multiple guys. Let's not forget that we do have Kelvin Hayden (if we resign him) who has been a high quality starting CB in the league, when healthy (which is obviously the big issue with him). We also have a guy in Darrin Walls who could become something special given the chance, also Dom Franks has looked good at times and is more of a man corner than a zone guy. At LB the league is becoming such a passing league that Lofton's value certainly decreases. If we play as much nickel as it sounds like we are going to, then why break the bank for him if Spoon and Nicholas are going to be the guys in the Nickel package?

Also, Hines Ward is quite possibly my least favorite player in the league and I'm going to have a hard time cheering for that guy...

[King Syrup Golden 32 Oz]

Also, Hines Ward is quite possibly my least favorite player in the league and I'm going to have a hard time cheering for that guy...

Reading is FUN-da-MENTAL.

[MSalmon]

I like/agree with most things. Def. not Baker though.

Originally, i agreed with your thought process of dumping baker. But you've got to wonder if boudreau wasn't part of the problem.Particularly with the way he didn't utilize Johnson and rotated the line so much. I'm sure OLine is like a lot of positions and great coaching and confidence building goes a long way. Baker healthy is a pretty good T. He was a really good G going into college. If we can "reclaim or rebuild" him that goes a long way to fortifying our team.

[SwampyMux12]

Reading is FUN-da-MENTAL.

I realize he's not here yet, and chances are he won't be, but I'm bracing myself for the way things usually go in these types of situations. The football gods usually see fit to make sure that uncomfortable situations such as Hines Ward coming to to the ATL come to pass I guess I should have said "would have a hard time cheering for that guy"... dam my grammar...

Edited February 23, 2012 by SwampyMux12