V3...thakrunk1's Mock Draft And Off-Season

[KRUNKuno]

A couple of changes for v3...

According to Pat Yasinskas we are at $96.1 mil. It has been said that the salary cap next year will probably not change from $120.4 mil, but there are also rumblings that it will possibly go up. This year also includes 3 $500,000 exceptions totaling an extra $1.5 mil towards cap room. I will use a $122 mil cap for this mock meaning we would have around $26 mil of free cap space to work with in signing players.

Cut/ Let Go

Brent Grimes (I'd rather not be handcuffed to a 29 year-old, 5'8'' corner. Think Antoine Winfield)

Thomas Decoud (Need I explain?)

Harry Douglas (Thanking him for his time here, but let him go in a different direction)

Kroy Biermann (He'll probably want to test his hand somewhere else for more money. He'll get it too)

Mike Peterson (Will probably retire)

Brett Romberg (Meh)

Eric Weems (Is an ace on special teams coverage, but return ability is suspect)

Jason Snelling (Very, very serviceable but he'll look for more money elsewhere)

Reggie Kelly (Old, waste of depth chart space)

Sam Baker (Need I explain?)

Kelvin Hayden (Injury prone)

Chris Redman (Old. New offensive system means we're not entitled to bring him back)

Restructuring Contracts

Dunta Robinson makes $6 mil this year with $5 mil guaranteed. The least he could do is give us $1 mil back.

Jonathon Babineaux makes $4.1 mil this year, but his contract includes $8 mil in bonuses. I would estimate that we could get about $2 mil back depending on whether he has lived up to some of that bonus money yet.

+3 mil => $29 mil cap space

Re-sign

Curtis Lofton (He's our defensive captain. He'll want to stay here, and we want him here)...6 mil

James Sanders (Quality safety depth and possible starter)...2 mil

Todd McClure (Leader of the oline, but is getting old. He'll come back cheap)...1 mil

-9 mil => $20 mil cap space

Next, we have to keep Abe unless he asks for a unreasonable deal. If we cannot work out a contract with him, let him walk. In this case we need to go HARD at Mario Williams. For the sake of less confusion, I will say that we do acquire Williams through free agency. The signing of Mario Williams will be our quasi-first round pick.

-12 mil => $8 mil cap space

Other Free Agent Pick-ups

CB, Terrell Thomas (Big corner. Coming off ACL injury. Could get him cheap)...3 mil

DT, Shaun Rogers (Big body to shut down the run. Him occupying 2 defenders let's Bab's do his thing. Corey Peters comes in fresh)...2 mil

-5 mil => $3 mil cap space

The Draft

2nd Round, Kevin Zeitler OG, Wisconsin, 6'4'' 315lbs

- Zeitler is a breast on the line. This guy has nothing but upside. He absolutely MAULS in the run game, and can anchor extremely well in the pass game. He's a cerebral player, and just has an outstanding feel of paving the way for the run game and protecting the quarterback.

3rd Round, Antonio Allen S, South Carolina, 6'2'' 205lbs

- With Mike Nolan and Mike Smith saying they want to run more hybrid defenses, Antonio Allen fits the bill as to inserting a hybrid player that brings the defense all together. He's a safety with quality safety speed and agility, but has the toughness of a linebacker. He played the hybrid SPUR position at South Carolina and thrived there. My intentions are to put William Moore at FS where he can roam the field and reduce injury, and play Allen at the SS/Hybrid position.

5th Round, Tyler Nielsen LB, Iowa, 6'3'' 235lbs

- He's a lunch pail, slobber-knocker type of linebacker, but has outstanding speed and coverage skills. Nielsen is flying under the radar a bit. He had a neck injury that seemed pretty serious a year ago, but bounced back in full force. Nielsen will run in the low 4.6's at the combine which may see his draft status skyrocket. He has to show that he is truly healthy, however. From what I've seen and researched, I cannot tell you why his status is currently at mid-round level. Lots of upside here.

5th Round, Devon Wylie WR, Fresno State, 5'9'' 185lbs (Compensatory-Michael Koenen)

- Pat Hill will have something to do with this. Devon Wylie is a lightning rod. People often throw the name 'Wes Welker' out there for any shifty player they see. This guy, I kid you not, IS Wes Welker. He's decisive in his cuts, jukes and route running. Not to mention he's going to run a 4.3 at the combine. His only issue is injuries. Last season was his first real injury free season. He's tough, but just needs to find a way to stay healthy. He can come in right away and be our return man.

6th Round, Jacquies Smith DE, Missouri, 6'3'' 255lbs

- Smith is a leader of his team and a playmaker. He's a bit stiff in his motions and missed games this year with a minor injury. He's a baller nonetheless. Extremely versatile.

7th Round, Chase Ford TE, Miami, 6'6'' 260lbs

- Has outstanding hands, but lacks speed. He's a hard worker and a reliable target. I'm not looking at him as our TE of the future. Michael Palmer is still very underrated and under-used in our offense, and I believe he can actually be something in this league if he can stay healthy. Ford, however, is a project TE. We might could get a diamond in the rough here.

-3 mil => CAP SPACE MAXED

Depth Chart (53/53)

QB- Matt Ryan, JPW

RB- Turner, Quizz, Smith, Nance

FB- Mughelli, Cox

WR- Roddy, Julio, Meier, Wylie, Cone

LT- Svitek, Jackson

LG- Blalock, Johnson

C- McClure, Hawley

RG- Zeitler, Hawley

RT- Clabo, Reynolds

TE- Tony Gonzalez, Palmer, Ford

RE- Mario Williams, Sidbury

DT- Babs, Shaun Rogers, Corey Peters, Vance Walker

LE- Ray Edwards, Jacquies Smith, Cliff Matthews

LB- Lofton, Spoon, Nicholas, Dent, Nielsen, Adkins, James

CB- Robinson, Thomas, Owens, Franks, Walls

SS- Antonio Allen, Schillinger

FS- William Moore, James Sanders

ST- Bosher, Bryant, Zelenka

2013 NFL Draft

1st round, Tyler Eifert TE, Notre Dame 6'5'' 255lbs

[X-Man21]

One of the best mock drafts offseason predictions that I have seen thus far. It could be just to get Williams, but I feel like Sidbury should still get a shot at his position and to prove that he an be all pro, and if Mario Williams is added to the equation then you may be talking about potentially one of the most up and coming DE tandems in the league. I dont know if Antonio Allen is big enough to play Strong Safety i Think Moore should keep that spot if this were to happen.

[KRUNKuno]

One of the best mock drafts offseason predictions that I have seen thus far. It could be just to get Williams, but I feel like Sidbury should still get a shot at his position and to prove that he an be all pro, and if Mario Williams is added to the equation then you may be talking about potentially one of the most up and coming DE tandems in the league. I dont know if Antonio Allen is big enough to play Strong Safety i Think Moore should keep that spot if this were to happen.

Thanks man. I just had to get the salary numbers in order. I really feel like we'll push after Mario Williams. We need a pass rush that's proven and Williams provides this.

Antonio Allen plays much bigger than his size is listed. I had a video of him in my other mock, but I put one of Wylie in this one instead.

[jbrinson]

Wylie can be our next Tim Dwight.

[falconfanEST1989]

i agree with the quasi-first round mario williams pick but i think that you could say that with Nicks as a fa pick up too..

id say trade Turner to the bills for CJ spiller

[root down]

um...there is an entire forum called Nfl draft and free agency. just sayin

[FootballRealist]

Its a nice write up plan and I would love to get Mario Williams like the next man but we cant continue to build a team throuh free agency . This is not how the elite franchise build there teams . Since 2008 this team has been a mid to major player in free agent market and then factor in last year we made a bold draft day trade move and spent some future picks . There are gaps on our team but we need to start developing some of the players we have drafted over past 4 years and find out if they are the answer or not

Mario Williams is a big big big free agent signing and we would have to open the bank to pay him .

[FootballRealist]

Good read

Adam Archuleta became one of the most sought-after NFL free agents in 2006. Several teams were interested in the playmaking strong safety, but the Redskins won the bidding, making him the highest paid safety in history at the time. Owner Dan Snyder signed-off on giving Archuleta a 6-year $30 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed.

To call the Archuleta signing a bust would be an understatement. He started only 7 games the next season and was traded to Chicago for a 6th-round draft pick the following year. Archuleta never returned to his early-career form, and washed out of the league after the 2007 season.

Although Snyder has a well-known, and well-deserved, reputation for overpaying for disappointing free agents, he's not alone. There's a phenomenon of auctions that makes overpaying for top free agent players all too common.

Consider fictional star running back Freddy Adams, a top free-agent in whom several teams are interested. Each of the teams has a hole to fill at his position. The scouts and executives of each team all have their estimations of the player's value. On a scale of 1 to 10, Team A feels he's a 7.1 in terms of future expected performance, so they offer $7.1 million per year. Team B estimates Freddy is a 6.2, and offers $6.2 million per year. Team C and Team D think he's a 4.7 and a 3.8 respectively, and make offers accordingly.

Mr. Adams is no dummy, and decides to go with the high bidder, Team A.

At this point we can't know Freddy's true value, which will be revealed only after he plays out his contract. But as long as the teams' scouts, coaches, and executives have any degree of competence, we know where his actual value would tend to be. Each team has its own biases and errors, and some will overestimate while some will underestimate his value. It's very likely Freddy's true value will lie somewhere between the high and low estimates.

Known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner%27s_curse">The Winner's Curse, this phenomenon is a well-documented characteristic of auction-style transactions. Whether the object of the auction is a part of the wireless frequency spectrum, licenses to drill for oil, or securing the rights to a Pro Bowl-caliber safety, the top bidder will likely be the one who most overestimates the value of the prize.

In truth, the Winner's Curse applies strictly to "common value" auctions, where the prize would be of equal value to all bidders. This is rarely the case in reality, so to account for differing values to bidders, we can add a "synergy" factor to the mix. A player might be of particularly high worth to a team with a single 'missing piece', or a speedy pass-rushing linebacker might be of special value to a defense that plays a 3-4.

In the end, however, the synergy value of the prize is just as susceptible to overestimation as its common value. A free agents would be just as disappointing to his team, which would likely be the team that overestimated both the general value and the particular synergy he could bring. (Check out this applet that demonstrates the Winner's Curse in action. You'll notice that the synergy factor needs to be extremely high to escape the Curse.)

Once the top free agent is signed in any given year, the market is now 'set' for other lesser players. The Winner's Curse tends to inflate the price of similar goods across the market place, creating a bubble. The real estate or stock markets may not be so different from the free agent market in the NFL. Which home buyer is going to be the one that ends up with that McMansion? The one who overestimates its value the most, that's who. And with each inflated sale, all home prices inch up one more tiny notch, at least until a market correction comes along.

Bidders who are aware of the Curse can mitigate its effect by suppressing their bids below what they believe is the true value of the prize, a technique known as bid-shaving. This makes it less likely a bidder will end up overpaying, but it also makes it less likely the wise bidder will win the auction. The unsavvy bidder (such as Dan Snyder, perhaps) won't shave his bids, and becomes that much more likely to win (and overpay for) the prize.

Perhaps the Winner's Curse explains why top teams tend to build their starting lineups through the top rounds of the draft and not through free agency. It may also explain why draft picks might be better bargains than veteran free-agents with similar expected performance levels.

[FootballRealist]

thakrunk - also having just JPW as sole backup QB to Ryan is a nightmare ..bout the only thing ..lil nit pik

[KRUNKuno]

thakrunk - also having just JPW as sole backup QB to Ryan is a nightmare ..bout the only thing ..lil nit pik

LOL. I hear you, man. I had to make everything work though. Re-Signing Redman is a mistake in my mind. Maybe we'll pick up an UDFA QB to compete.

And I still build through the draft in my scenario. All I do is bring in a formidable free agent (Mario Williams). I do not give up any draft picks in the process, and I make sure everything comes in under the cap.

[citsalp]

um...there is an entire forum called Nfl draft and free agency. just sayin

And it's dead over there...

[Creative]

I really like this mock. I honestly think DeCoud could be pretty average to good with Nolan in charge, but that's me. If it means clearing cap for a Williams/Nicks though, I'm down.

[Pacific_Falcon]

I really like this mock. I honestly think DeCoud could be pretty average to good with Nolan in charge, but that's me. If it means clearing cap for a Williams/Nicks though, I'm down.

i dont like letting go of decoud or douglas when both could be kept for reasonable $. DeCoud has potential to have his career revived, same with dunta. douglas was underutilized and even did well stepping in for julio, so i dont like the idea of drafting a replacement and assuming the rookie will be better. koetters system will have a vertical passing attack much like douglas succeded under in louisvile.

overall i like the plan but i dont see mario as a likely thing to happen. pretty well thought out only beef i have is replacing vets who have shown promise with bad coordinators with rookies and crossing our fingers that the rookies tear it up. i know decoud gets ranked on here but he and other players werent put in the best position to succeed. i would give both decoud and douglas two year deals at a cheap price...say 3 per for decoud and 2 per for douglas and if they dont take it let em walk. like tge draft picks

[Knight of God]

Only thing I dislike is Shaun Rogers.

[Flashinator23]

I'd rather resign Grimes and I'd also rather sign Reggie Nelson to play Safety and use that draft spot on DE/OL/CB, other than that great mock. I also don't think we will draft a first round TE next year since most of the successful TE have been diamonds in the rough like your 7th round pick, which I really like btw!

[Thiccolas Cage]

Good mock. I like the idea of nabbing a TE in the first next year

[Zodiac]

Here's the problem.. no way in **** we are getting Mario Williams for 12 Mil.

He'll easily fetch around 19-20 on the open market

[KRUNKuno]

Here's the problem.. no way in **** we are getting Mario Williams for 12 Mil.

He'll easily fetch around 19-20 on the open market

Considering the franchise tag for defensive ends this year is $11 mil, and the guy is coming off a season-ending injury I'd say $12 mil is just about right.

The last big defensive end contract was Julius Peppers who tallied 10.5 sacks before hitting free agency INJURY-FREE.

Peppers got paid roughly around $11 mil in his first year. His contract is backloaded heavily with a lot of bonus and incentive money involved.

19-20 mil a year is ludicrous for a guy that is coming off injury.

[FalconsIn2012]

Good read

Adam Archuleta became one of the most sought-after NFL free agents in 2006. Several teams were interested in the playmaking strong safety, but the Redskins won the bidding, making him the highest paid safety in history at the time. Owner Dan Snyder signed-off on giving Archuleta a 6-year $30 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed.

To call the Archuleta signing a bust would be an understatement. He started only 7 games the next season and was traded to Chicago for a 6th-round draft pick the following year. Archuleta never returned to his early-career form, and washed out of the league after the 2007 season.

Although Snyder has a well-known, and well-deserved, reputation for overpaying for disappointing free agents, he's not alone. There's a phenomenon of auctions that makes overpaying for top free agent players all too common.

Consider fictional star running back Freddy Adams, a top free-agent in whom several teams are interested. Each of the teams has a hole to fill at his position. The scouts and executives of each team all have their estimations of the player's value. On a scale of 1 to 10, Team A feels he's a 7.1 in terms of future expected performance, so they offer $7.1 million per year. Team B estimates Freddy is a 6.2, and offers $6.2 million per year. Team C and Team D think he's a 4.7 and a 3.8 respectively, and make offers accordingly.

Mr. Adams is no dummy, and decides to go with the high bidder, Team A.

At this point we can't know Freddy's true value, which will be revealed only after he plays out his contract. But as long as the teams' scouts, coaches, and executives have any degree of competence, we know where his actual value would tend to be. Each team has its own biases and errors, and some will overestimate while some will underestimate his value. It's very likely Freddy's true value will lie somewhere between the high and low estimates.

Known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner%27s_curse">The Winner's Curse, this phenomenon is a well-documented characteristic of auction-style transactions. Whether the object of the auction is a part of the wireless frequency spectrum, licenses to drill for oil, or securing the rights to a Pro Bowl-caliber safety, the top bidder will likely be the one who most overestimates the value of the prize.

In truth, the Winner's Curse applies strictly to "common value" auctions, where the prize would be of equal value to all bidders. This is rarely the case in reality, so to account for differing values to bidders, we can add a "synergy" factor to the mix. A player might be of particularly high worth to a team with a single 'missing piece', or a speedy pass-rushing linebacker might be of special value to a defense that plays a 3-4.

In the end, however, the synergy value of the prize is just as susceptible to overestimation as its common value. A free agents would be just as disappointing to his team, which would likely be the team that overestimated both the general value and the particular synergy he could bring. (Check out this applet that demonstrates the Winner's Curse in action. You'll notice that the synergy factor needs to be extremely high to escape the Curse.)

Once the top free agent is signed in any given year, the market is now 'set' for other lesser players. The Winner's Curse tends to inflate the price of similar goods across the market place, creating a bubble. The real estate or stock markets may not be so different from the free agent market in the NFL. Which home buyer is going to be the one that ends up with that McMansion? The one who overestimates its value the most, that's who. And with each inflated sale, all home prices inch up one more tiny notch, at least until a market correction comes along.

Bidders who are aware of the Curse can mitigate its effect by suppressing their bids below what they believe is the true value of the prize, a technique known as bid-shaving. This makes it less likely a bidder will end up overpaying, but it also makes it less likely the wise bidder will win the auction. The unsavvy bidder (such as Dan Snyder, perhaps) won't shave his bids, and becomes that much more likely to win (and overpay for) the prize.

Perhaps the Winner's Curse explains why top teams tend to build their starting lineups through the top rounds of the draft and not through free agency. It may also explain why draft picks might be better bargains than veteran free-agents with similar expected performance levels.

Very sound reasoning, Realist, and equally well articulated. Our current course has deviated so much from the "Patriot" way of doing things that it's a bit confounding. For someone who spent so much time within the New England organization it's illogical that TD places so little value in the draft. Kraft, Coach B and company stockpile draft picks year after year while we trade away two second round picks for Mr. Stumpy arms Sam Baker (and while I love Julio and still like the trade, no way does NE even consider that trade). I view Mario Williams in the same light as Julio....I'd love to have him on the team and it would create a buzz; however, the right thing is probably to spend 4-5 million on 3 different players rather than 12 million on one.

[falconidae]

Considering the franchise tag for defensive ends this year is $11 mil, and the guy is coming off a season-ending injury I'd say $12 mil is just about right.

The last big defensive end contract was Julius Peppers who tallied 10.5 sacks before hitting free agency INJURY-FREE.

Peppers got paid roughly around $11 mil in his first year. His contract is backloaded heavily with a lot of bonus and incentive money involved.

19-20 mil a year is ludicrous for a guy that is coming off injury.

Giving Haynesworth a 30 million dollar bonus was ludicrous, didn't keep it from happening.

Williams will get more money than he deserves, he's the best FA available and everybody could use another pass rusher. Maybe not 19 mil, but 15-16 mil with an outrageous amount guaranteed. Someone will outbid the Falcons, just like someone would have outbid the Falcons on Peppers.

Overall, I like your thoughts, but don't think the Falcons can or will pay enough to get Williams.

Also think the falcons are going to fill the center & guard positions in house- they've drafted Reynolds, Jackson, Johnson, Hawley over the last few years. They'll probably go for a LT in FA.

Think they'll also work to keep HD here rather than draft a replacement. Koetter will actually use HD and HD should flourish in the new offense.

And don't think that MCClure can be signed for a mil- think the vet minimum for 10+ years is more than that for. Might still have an exemption for veterans, not sure of the new CBA.

[KRUNKuno]

Giving Haynesworth a 30 million dollar bonus was ludicrous, didn't keep it from happening.

Williams will get more money than he deserves, he's the best FA available and everybody could use another pass rusher. Maybe not 19 mil, but 15-16 mil with an outrageous amount guaranteed. Someone will outbid the Falcons, just like someone would have outbid the Falcons on Peppers.

Overall, I like your thoughts, but don't think the Falcons can or will pay enough to get Williams.

Also think the falcons are going to fill the center & guard positions in house- they've drafted Reynolds, Jackson, Johnson, Hawley over the last few years. They'll probably go for a LT in FA.

Think they'll also work to keep HD here rather than draft a replacement. Koetter will actually use HD and HD should flourish in the new offense.

And don't think that MCClure can be signed for a mil- think the vet minimum for 10+ years is more than that for. Might still have an exemption for veterans, not sure of the new CBA.

I understand you on the Williams deal. Of course I'm doing wishful thinking here with us getting Williams. I'm trying to do so any way possible lol. If anything we'll re-sign Abe to a 4 mil a year deal.

I agree with giving McClure the vet minimum as well. That'll change in V4.

I also agree with HD, but again I'm trying to get Mario Williams in here lol. HD will command around 3 mil a year so....something had to give.