Enquiring Minds Want To Know

[PapaJoe]

An extensive research study in 2000 found (paraphrased), "Incompetent people are the last to know it... they lack the necessary skills to even recognize actual competence in others and conversely lack the skills to recognize their own incompetence."

The findings of this study are now referred to as the "Dunn-Kruger Effect"

Below are some links for those of you wishing to know more about this phenomenon.

http://en.wikipedia....93Kruger_effect

http://www.nytimes.c...competents.html

http://www.damninter...-unaware-of-it/

This MB is a great source for demonstrations of the D-K Effect

The following is borrowed from elsewhere:

As much as ESPN would have you believe, guys like Brady, Brees, and Eli were not at all what you would call "elite" early on in their careers. Take a look at how they compare to Ryan over the first four years:

MATT RYAN:

2008- 61.1% completion, 3440 yards passing, 16 TD, 11 INT, 87. 7 passer rating (16 gms)

2009- 58.3% completion, 2916 yards passing, 22 TD, 14 INT, 80.9 passer rating (14 gms)

2010- 62.5% completion, 3705 yards passing, 28 TD, 9 INT, 91.0 passer rating (16 gms)

2011- 61.3% completion, 4177 yards passing, 29 TD, 12 INT, 92.2 passer rating (16 gms)

Drew Brees:

2002- 60.8% completion, 3284 yards passing, 17 TD, 16 INT, 76.9 passer rating (16 gms)

2003- 57.6% completion, 2108 yards passing, 11 TD, 15 INT, 67.5 passer rating (11 gms)

2004- 65.5% completion, 3159 yards passing, 27 TD, 7 INT, 104.8 passer rating (15 gms)

2005- 64.6% completion, 3576 yards passing, 24 TD, 15 INT, 89.2 passer rating (16 gms)

Tom Brady:

2001- 63.9% completion, 2843 yards passing, 18 TD, 12 INT, 86.5 passer rating (15 gms)

2002- 62.1% completion, 3764 yards passing, 28 TD, 14 INT, 85.7 passer rating (16 gms)

2003- 60.2% completion, 3620 yards passing, 23 TD, 12 INT, 85.9 passer rating (16 gms)

2004- 60.8% completion, 3692 yards passing, 28 TD 14 INT, 92.6 passer rating (16 gms)

Eli Manning:

2004- 48.2% completion, 1043 yards passing, 6 TD, 9 INT, 55.4 passer rating (9 gms)

2005- 52.8% completion, 3762 yards passing, 24 TD, 17 INT, 75.9 passer rating (16 gms)

2006- 57.7% completion, 3244 yards passing, 24 TD, 18 INT, 77.0 passer rating (16 gms)

2007- 56.1% completion, 3336 yards passing, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 passer rating (16 gms)

**Note that RYAN never finishes lower than 2nd in any given year by comparision. He is 1st or virtually tied for 1st in two of those seasons.

Over those 4 seasons he also has the highest AVG. QB rating.

Brady was solid all four years and very consistent, but nothing special. Brees was horrible early in his career, and in fact he wouldn't put up those "elite" numbers until arriving in New Orleans and playing for Sean Payton. And of course Eli, if you remember, was never very good during the early years. Giants fans wanted him out of town, and in Manning's case it was probably warranted.

Even more interesting is that around year five or six was then all of these guys really hit their stride, took that next step and started putting up the huge numbers. What all of this data reflects, then, is that A) Quarterback is a position that requires maturity and baby steps forward, and http://content.board...efault/cool.png a good offensive playcaller can make all the difference.

Arguably, you could say Ryan has been better than all of those guys. He'll be playing in (hopefully) a more aggressive offensive scheme under Dirk Koetter- one that should still cater to his strengths- and he'll have a full offseason with which to work with Julio Jones and a (again, hopefully) improved offensive line.

[freebird310]

Post of the day ......the antidote to the Ryan troll threads ......

[bill from accounting]

I like this thread.

[freebird310]

Another this QB improved and won a SB so Matt Ryan is bound to do it too thread.

So Phil, I'm sure you will again try to prove to us that's impossible ........

[FalconinPA]

Yep, to me these type of threads actually mean nothing. Everybody keeps comparing Ryan's first 4 years to these so called elite QB's. Doesn't mean anything. Ryan could definitely get worse or make leaps and bound in the improvement category. It all remains to be seen. I would prefer the latter though. I really don't get caught up to much in the stats.

I do know that I am expecting alot out of Ryan and the offense next year.

[norbendon]

Another this QB improved and won a SB so Matt Ryan is bound to do it too thread.

Better than anything you've ever posted on here.

[Dominique is Manufique]

Phil Simms recently was interviewed on 790thezone and i enjoyed hearing his perspective about football fans in general. if you read between the lines of his interview you can definitely see a disdain he has for football fans' perspective and immaturity shown at games and of course in twitter, and social media etc.

Know-it-alls and monday morning qb's and the great invention of the internet has revolutionized "stupidity". millions upon millions of people's idiotic ideas and notions are now vehemently discussed and pondered as if their insight is revolutionary or ahead of our time. hey folks - we know nothing about the national football league when compared to coaches, gm's, owners and players. if we did we wouldn't be on this useless board.

go falcons.

[bill from accounting]

Yep, to me these type of threads actually mean nothing. Everybody keeps comparing Ryan's first 4 years to these so called elite QB's. Doesn't mean anything. Ryan could definitely get worse or make leaps and bound in the improvement category. It all remains to be seen. I would prefer the latter though. I really don't get caught up to much in the stats.

I do know that I am expecting alot out of Ryan and the offense next year.

Just wondering, what examples are there of qb's completely regressing after four years of solid play instead of progressing?

[StatzQuo]

Roddy White, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzales. Now out of the QBs you listed, tell me who had better talent surrounding them.

[PapaJoe]

Roddy White, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzales. Now out of the QBs you listed, tell me who had better talent surrounding them.

Which came first? The chicken or the egg?

[FootballRealist]

Arguably, you could say Ryan has been better than all of those guys. He'll be playing in (hopefully) a more aggressive offensive scheme under Dirk Koetter- one that should still cater to his strengths- and he'll have a full offseason with which to work with Julio Jones and a (again, hopefully) improved offensive line.

Arguably you can not if you want to judge some of the playoff performances . Also how do you know he will be under a offensive scheme in Dirk Kotter that better fits his skill set . Is this hope or wishful thinking on your part ?

To Judge a QB year by year basis is kind of misguied . Are you willing to say Cam Newton a rookie had a better rookie season then of Matt Ryan can you come to the conclusion that Cam Newton is a better QB then Matt Ryan based off their respective rookie seasons . Of course you can point to a team stat as WINS and while Ryan help lead a team to playoffs and 10 wins his rookie season while Cam only 6 .

Where is the middle ground in judging a QB in year by year basis ? do you judge a QB off his QB rating or playoff success ?

There are 11 current NFL QBS that have lead their teams to playoff win before the 4th season

Tim Tebow

Flacco

Sanchez

Brady

Big Ben

Rex Grossman

TJ YATES

Eli Manning

Phillip Rivers

Michael Vick

[Guest Negatorris]

This is a great thread.

I don't understand how people on here are hating on Ryan and more people want to trade him, than Bucs and Jags fans want Gabbert out. It's ridiculous. If the Pats, Packers, or Saints ever lost their starting QB I bet they would take Ryan and be happy and grateful. Some of our fans are idiots, racists, and Vick lovers. It's embarrassing at times.

[Knight of God]

That was pretty good.

[paulitik]

I understand the playoff argument and trolls are always going to bring up Tebow, Sanchez, and Yates as examples of rookie QBs and playoff wins. That said, it is a ridiculously absurd argument when you compare those team's stats to our team's as a whole. Young QBs that win playoff games tend to have dominant defensive performance, or an effective running game to assist them. Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, TJ Yates did not have to put their team on their backs to win playoff games, and most QBs that have won them didn't have to.

There is nothing physical or mental that says Matt Ryan can't win a playoff game. It's been circumstantial. Defense can't force a punt, we can't run the ball, the OL is getting overwhelmed, a timid gameplan, poorly schemed. There is nothing that can't be coached up. I'm not taking blame from Ryan, but it cannot be denied that we have seen teams win playoff games despite QB performance. Tom Brady the other day, almost every game Flacco or Sanchez have player. It's just laziness and stupidity to discount Matt Ryan's legitimacy as a franchise QB just because of 3 playoff losses.

[mrobinson3803]

Was Vick even mentioned in this thread. Why bring racism into this?

[FootballRealist]

I understand the playoff argument and trolls are always going to bring up Tebow, Sanchez, and Yates as examples of rookie QBs and playoff wins. That said, it is a ridiculously absurd argument when you compare those team's stats to our team's as a whole. Young QBs that win playoff games tend to have dominant defensive performance, or an effective running game to assist them. Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, TJ Yates did not have to put their team on their backs to win playoff games, and most QBs that have won them didn't have to.

There is nothing physical or mental that says Matt Ryan can't win a playoff game. It's been circumstantial. Defense can't force a punt, we can't run the ball, the OL is getting overwhelmed, a timid gameplan, poorly schemed. There is nothing that can't be coached up. I'm not taking blame from Ryan, but it cannot be denied that we have seen teams win playoff games despite QB performance. Tom Brady the other day, almost every game Flacco or Sanchez have player. It's just laziness and stupidity to discount Matt Ryan's legitimacy as a franchise QB just because of 3 playoff losses.

This post above is totally misinformed . Tim Tebow and Sanche made plays when their respective team needed them to make plays . Matt Ryan in 3 of his playoff performances has not put his team in position to win the game . In Green Bay playoff game his 2 crucial ints helped killed any monentum of the team and last playoff game vs Giants , Matt Ryan played timid . Matt Ryan never put the team in position to win this last playoff game . The defense played exceptionally well in first half and lost containment when momentum switched when offense couldnt pick up some 4th and 1 situations . This falls on the QB shoulders . Has Turner been effecive no but that could be defensive schemes playing the 8 men in box like Giants/Packers did and main goal was to shut Turner down and force Ryan to beat them . Ryan stuggles at times when game is on his shoulders. There can be rare occurances where running game has been shut down and Ryan was to carry the load ..

Edited January 27, 2012 by FootballRealist

[Steel City Falcon]

This is a great post.. But the Haters will combat you with the fact that Ryan had Roddy and Tony, not to mention Julio this year.

He also had the worst defense by far out of all four of these QBs.

[Guest Gritz]

This post above is totally misinformed . Matt Ryan in 3 of his 4 playoff performances has not put his team in position to win the game ..

Your post is much more misinformed....Ryan has been in 3 playoff games, not 4.

[FootballRealist]

Your post is much more misinformed....Ryan has been in 3 playoff games, not 4.

You are correct sir 3 playoff games..In 2009 we missed out . In Ryan 3 playoff games its not like he played exceptionally well where he is without blame . He has not cracked a passer rating of 75 nor passed for 200 yards .

[Grrrillapmpn Inc.®]

Guess I'll pose this question here too.

Why should we care about what other teams qbs do?

[paulitik]

This post above is totally misinformed . Tim Tebow and Sanche made plays when their respective team needed them to make plays . Matt Ryan in 3 of his playoff performances has not put his team in position to win the game . In Green Bay playoff game his 2 crucial ints helped killed any monentum of the team and last playoff game vs Giants , Matt Ryan played timid . Matt Ryan never put the team in position to win this last playoff game . The defense played exceptionally well in first half and lost containment when momentum switched when offense couldnt pick up some 4th and 1 situations . This falls on the QB shoulders . Has Turner been effecive no but that could be defensive schemes playing the 8 men in box like Giants/Packers did and main goal was to shut Turner down and force Ryan to beat them . Ryan stuggles at times when game is on his shoulders. There can be rare occurances where running game has been shut down and Ryan was to carry the load ..

I;m not absolving Ryan of his playoff performances, they've been mediocre to poor. That said, these plays weren't there. Sanchez had an epic OLine his rookie year and elite Defense. Same with Tebow, great OL play, and a Defense that was giving Big ben fits. . Matt didn't have a WR with a single safety on him to throw to because our OC conceded to the Giants strengths before the game ever started. Mularkey took every play we had out of the middle, as well as any deep routes. Also, our receivers weren't exactly coming back or getting open to bail Matt out. add the fact that Roddy was dropping balls on critical downs doesn't help.

Matt needs to step up, no doubt, but the rest of the team does too. Turner, Roddy, nor the OL don't get a fraction of the heat that Matt does. They get some, but nothing compared to the irrational amount the QB does.

[Knight of God]

Guess I'll pose this question here too.

Why should we care about what other teams qbs do?

Well then that could lead to a revolution of sorts. Stop caring about what other teams do would be the next step. Thus would end the whole copy-cat league. Then the end of "its a passing league" then the end of RBBC. That would end the trade Ryan, White, Turner thing. Which would then mean only focusing on our team only and how that team could get better. Sounds too logical to happen TBH.

[FootballRealist]

I;m not absolving Ryan of his playoff performances, they've been mediocre to poor. That said, these plays weren't there. Sanchez had an epic OLine his rookie year and elite Defense. Same with Tebow, great OL play, and a Defense that was giving Big ben fits. . Matt didn't have a WR with a single safety on him to throw to because our OC conceded to the Giants strengths before the game ever started. Mularkey took every play we had out of the middle, as well as any deep routes. Also, our receivers weren't exactly coming back or getting open to bail Matt out. *** Riddy dropping balls on critical downs doesn't help.

Matt needs to step up, no doubt, but the rest of the team does too. Turner, Roddy, nor the OL don't get a fraction of the heat that Matt does. They get some, but nothing compared to the irrational amount the QB does.

In today's NFL wr dont run open unless they are playing our defense ..You sometimes have to throw a ball up and let the wr make a play . The coordinator job is to determine game flow and put offense in best situation to make plays .Mularkey did a poor job with his route designs and trying to get wr in space to make plays ..Ryan did a poor job in this past playoff game bailing on pressure or not side stepping . QB will also get criticism its the nature of the beast but its not unwarranted cause Ryan has struggled in 3 playoff games . Its not like Ryan passed for 350 yards and defense let him down . Ryan has been unable to put the team in position to win a playoff game . When Matt puts his team in position to win a game maybe the rest of the team will as well .

[FootballRealist]

if our general manager didnt think Ryan was able to get to the next level maybe he shouldnt have drafted Julio Jones and used those draft picks on oline and dline and build a top formidable defense that can help carry the Falcons to playoff wins instead of the QB .

[PapaJoe]

This post above is totally misinformed . Tim Tebow and Sanche made plays when their respective team needed them to make plays . Matt Ryan in 3 of his playoff performances has not put his team in position to win the game . In Green Bay playoff game his 2 crucial ints helped killed any monentum of the team and last playoff game vs Giants , Matt Ryan played timid . Matt Ryan never put the team in position to win this last playoff game . The defense played exceptionally well in first half and lost containment when momentum switched when offense couldnt pick up some 4th and 1 situations . This falls on the QB shoulders . Has Turner been effecive no but that could be defensive schemes playing the 8 men in box like Giants/Packers did and main goal was to shut Turner down and force Ryan to beat them . Ryan stuggles at times when game is on his shoulders. There can be rare occurances where running game has been shut down and Ryan was to carry the load ..

Talk about misinformed.... you are partly baseing your arguement on "Sanchez made plays... to put his team in position to win". And you go on to say that the multiple failures on 4th and 1 (WITH an EMPTY backfield ) are on the shoulders of Ryan.

Again... for enquiring minds, go read the articles from the links in the orig post. If you haven't done so already.