Tdwii's Post Playoff Meltdown Observations: Whither Matt Ryan...

[TheDirtyWordII]

I didn’t want to post right after Sunday’s devastating loss if only because the sheer anger and disappointment for what felt like a lost season was too palpable. It’s easy to go off half-cocked when emotions are running high. I pride myself on being pragmatic as it relates to my view on the Falcons and Sunday at 4:15 was not a time to exercise pragmatism.

48 hours later though, with the loss having reverberated sufficiently enough throughout the fanbase and having time to reflect with a bit more calm, my thoughts on Sunday and the season seem clearer.

If you take the real long view, the one that looks at the Falcons organization since its inception in 1966, it’s simply impossible to view the last 4 years as anything other than a step forward. Coming off the 2007 debacle, if someone had asked “would you take a 43-21 regular season record but an 0-3 playoff record” on the day Mike Smith was hired…I think it’s safe to say most of us would have jumped on board. But expectations don’t work that way. They get re-adjusted depending on intermittent success and/or failure. For the Falcons, that re-adjustment has resulted in expectations that are either achieved or fallen short of in January. It’s an enviable place to be, a place that only 10 or so other NFL franchise can claim to be and as such, is a testimonial to just how far the Falcons have come in a relatively short period of time.

But Sunday’s 24-2 drubbing also demonstrated just how far the Falcons have to go as well and it would be tough to argue that if you were to evaluate where the Falcons stand today on the NFL hierarchy versus where they stood at the end of the 2008 season when an improbable franchise resuscitation resulted in a 7 game improvement, that the 2011 Falcons presented more hope and a more realistic outlook of reaching the ultimate goal of a SB Championship than that team.

As the first half wound down and the Falcons inexplicably decided to sit on the ball with 68 second and 3 TO’s remaining, I thought about how teams and seasons are defined. About what the difference is between building the identity of a teams season versus its holistic identity and a group of individuals coming together as an organization. I thought about how in 2008, the Falcons behind a truck of an RB in Michael Turner seemed to dare teams to stop their ground attack which would pulverize opponents into submission. That aura seemed to carry itself prominently into following seasons. On 4th down conversions in the 2008-2010 seasons, the Falcons converted 33 of 51, a gaudy 65% success rate. But with rapidly diminishing Michael Turner, that percentage dropped to 31% in 2011…and in the biggest moments of the Falcons 2011 season – the Falcons came up woefully short, not only against the Giants but the New Orleans Saints too in a moment that swung the balance of power in the NFL South back to the hated Saints. It represented a loss of identity, a loss that left the Falcons searching for another one. It was as clear a demonstration as to why franchises no longer build their long term futures on their running games. The shelf lives are too short.

From the day Drew Brees arrived in New Orelans, they have been about him. Everything they do is based on the foundation of his abilities and leadership. It is not to say that they expect him to be their everything. 2010 proved that without a semblance of running attack that Brees too has his limitations. But make no mistake – he is the heart, soul and body of that franchise. With Brees at the center of the Saints universe, the attack mindset is at the surface of everything the Saints do. How they plan, how they execute…on both sides of the ball. Nothing exemplified this more than when the stakes were perhaps at their highest, an onside kick to begin the second half of the Super Bowl when they were trailing 10-6. And while Brees is the unquestioned center of the Saints universe which preaches attack at all times, that the singular moment that defines them is one in which Brees had no influence. The Saints took on the personality of the man who defines them. It showed that every Saint had a bit of Drew Brees inside of them and were better players and a better team because of that. I mean this year on MNF, Payton & Brees allowed their pre-game game plan review session to be recorded as if to say ‘set your TIVO’s NFL, it still don’t matter’. When the Falcons introduce their offensive starters, Matt Ryan is either announced 2nd or 3rd to last. When an unnamed Falcon said “someone’s got to talk to coach Mike about these conservative game plans”, which someone do you think that unnamed Falcon was referring to? And do you think he might have been insinuating that such a conversation has yet to occur?

The main question that faces the Falcons this off-season is this. Who are they? The stat was listed in the AJC…in games where Matt Ryan had 40+ attempts, the Falcons were 1-7. Drew Brees puts up the ball up 41 times on average/game. Perhaps it’s the benefit of experience. Brees relishes his role as franchise centerpiece and heartbeat. He came to New Orleans having just turned 27…his career essentially hanging in the balance coming off a significant shoulder injury. This was not the first time Brees had to deal with his career hanging in the balance…in 2004, the Chargers drafted his replacement in Philip Rivers. Having questionably performed up until then, he was famously on a leash that was as short as one half of football, Brees hung on to the starting QB job for 2 years before relinquishing it.

Every leader is different. Tom Brady is not the fire and brimstone personality that Brees is – preferring a more measured approach and public cadence. But make no mistake…he serves the same role in New England. The Indianapolis Colts? We see what happened when their unquestioned leader could no longer play. Green Bay? Brett who…? Sure this is the elite level of leadership and quarterbacking the NFL has to offer, but this is also the level at which Ryan supposedly has been anointed by the Falcons to attain. While progress from a statistical measure was made by Ryan in 2011, he seemingly never came up smaller in big moments than he did this past year. Why does it seem that the mantra of Ryan needing the running game to succeed before he can hasn't changed since he was a rookie? Against the lesser lights of the NFL - this actually is no longer the case. But Ryan cannot build a viable legacy on tune-up fights.

Is Ryan solely to blame…? He certainly has some culpability, but you cannot help but think that the Falcons still have yet to become HIS team. Ryan will be 27 next season, the same age Brees was when he joined the Saints. Perhaps for the first time in his own NFL career, Ryan’s legacy now hangs in the balance. No longer is he viewed as the boy wonder who somehow managed to buck conventional wisdom and become a productive playoff qualifying rookie QB. Heck, 2nd round picks are now doing that (Andy Dalton). Now he’s viewed as the guy who come January turns to Matty Ice Cold. Fair or not, that perception is indisputable.

It’s not about work ethic for Ryan. We all know that this is not an area he falls short in. He’ll put in the time whether it be alone, or with his receivers or during OTA’s to try and be the best player possible. But what’s tougher to ascertain is whether such an investment of time will pay off in a better leader and franchise centerpiece. One can be anointed as such, but to truly become one means not having to be anointed. Sean Payton may have wanted Drew Brees to be his…but Brees had to become that on his own.

The Falcons didn’t lose 24-2 solely because of Matt Ryan. Breakdowns occurred in almost every facet of the game for the Falcons on Sunday. But ask yourself this question. Does everyone on the Falcons have a piece of Matt Ryan inside them like the Saints do with Brees? And if so…is that a good thing? Do the Falcons want to be about Matt Ryan? Defined by him? Are they now, and if so, what does that say about them?

These are all questions that need to be seriously contemplated this off-season, not to mention issues regarding personnel at key position starting with OL & RB and coordinator change(s). A week ago, I was prepared to keep Mularkey. Amazing how a completely inept playoff performance can make one do a 180.

This is the first precipice of the Matt Ryan’s career and essentially the entire Falcons franchise perhaps not only under this administration, but future ones if success does not come in the form of at the very least playoff success. It’s a precipice that is going to require and demand brutally honest introspection, individually and collectively. It may even require an instinct like self-preservation to be put aside. But what can’t be accepted any longer is a continuation of a process started 4 years ago. While Smith & Co. no longer refer to it as that, it still seems part of an unspoken vernacular as if this 4 year period has been a steady march toward an ultimate goal. That can no longer be sold. VanGorder is gone…Mularkey may be too. Other questions? Have we seen the last of Michael Turner in the Falcon uniform? Can the Falcons build an elite offense by targeting Roddy White 180 times/season? How drastically does the composition of the O-Line need to be modified? Why could we never get off the field on 3rd downs even in 10+ yard situations? Each off-season seems to bring a longer list of questions, questions that seem less and less superficial. But the biggest of them all will be this one. Whither Matt Ryan?

[Darkflight]

Good read.

[Goal Line D]

TDW you sincerly make this forum a better place with your astute write ups.

Bravo!

[g-dawg]

nice read TDWIII.....that is the most "anti-Matt Ryan" I have ever heard you be.

I think we all bought into Matt when he was a rookie in 2008. I believe that year he got more accolades for his play than he deserved - although he played very well that year "for a rookie". We all just assumed that meant he would progress more and more each year he played - fact is, Matt Ryan has progressed each year - but the progression is the smallest of baby steps.

I do believe that Matt is a good QB in NFL - I also believe we will never know Matt Ryan's ceiling until we get away from Mike Mularkey. If two years from now Matt is not any better than he is right now - under different offensive coordinator - then I will be very disappointed.

I think its time to take the reigns of the offense - and give it totally over to Matt Ryan - and let's see what we have. If its not an elite type of QB, then sobeit. Matt definitely has some limitations with regards to his arm strength and athleticism - but I believe, in the right QB friendly system, that Matt could throw for 4,500yds and 36TDs........with the right offensive coordinator and an upgraded O-Line, I still think this could work at the highest level.

Right now Matt Ryan is more than a game manager but less than a difference maker. We need more from him. We need more from this offense. We need change at the OC position.

We need it now.

[OC]

As usual, this was a good read and it was accurate. I think it was the Jacksonville game, but I remember hearing Mike Mayock say something about the team transitioning from being based on Michael Turner to being based on Matt Ryan. I agree with that and kinda viewed the year through that lens. I think this was a good transitional year (see: NYJ). That said, I think it says a lot about the culture of the team that we didn't really beat any good teams, and didn't manhandle the teams we should have until the end, which is why getting an OC who can develop something more geared toward taking advantage of the talents of Matt Ryan and the weapons he has will be vital.

[falconidae]

Good read TDWII, I'm convinced that Ryan has been handcuffed by the OC, we'll find out soon enough.

[g-dawg]

I would love to hear Mike Mayock go on the record and talk about Matt Ryan in terms of his progression of his career.

Mike was such a big proponent of Matt Ryan's ability - I just wonder if he is disappointed and/or if he thinks Matt's ceiling is going to get higher at this point and time.

[TheDirtyWordII]

nice read TDWIII.....that is the most "anti-Matt Ryan" I have ever heard you be.

I think we all bought into Matt when he was a rookie in 2008. I believe that year he got more accolades for his play than he deserved - although he played very well that year "for a rookie". We all just assumed that meant he would progress more and more each year he played - fact is, Matt Ryan has progressed each year - but the progression is the smallest of baby steps.

I do believe that Matt is a good QB in NFL - I also believe we will never know Matt Ryan's ceiling until we get away from Mike Mularkey. If two years from now Matt is not any better than he is right now - under different offensive coordinator - then I will be very disappointed.

I think its time to take the reigns of the offense - and give it totally over to Matt Ryan - and let's see what we have. If its not an elite type of QB, then sobeit. Matt definitely has some limitations with regards to his arm strength and athleticism - but I believe, in the right QB friendly system, that Matt could throw for 4,500yds and 36TDs........with the right offensive coordinator and an upgraded O-Line, I still think this could work at the highest level.

Right now Matt Ryan is more than a game manager but less than a difference maker. We need more from him. We need more from this offense. We need change at the OC position.

We need it now.

I'd hesitate to say I'm anti-Matt Ryan, in fact I would argue that I'm not. What I was hoping to convey was not necessarily an indictment of his physical skills as a QB which I think are still substantial...but I can't help but feel that there exists and has existed an opportunity for Ryan to establish his personal brand on the Falcons and to date, it's either not happened or if this is what it is...needs to be re-evaluated. I know it may be a little thing, but having him not be the last guy out of that tunnel stupifies me. And even the Falcons admitted earlier this season that it does matter who comes out last because when we played PHI (and Vick), Ryan was that last guy out of the tunnel. I think Ryan's first instinct is to deflect credit at all times...and that is not a bad way to be, especially when promoting the team concept. But you also have to take the figurative lead for a franchise and become it's primary and unquestioned identifier. And to date, I think Ryan has allowed himself to be identified as the leader of the Falcons on other peoples terms and not his, which runs counter to the definition of being a leader. It's not the sole criteria but a visible one for sure.

Sunday was an eye-opener for me regarding Mularkey. You can't lay a stink bomb like that without consequences. As such, to see Mularkey in the Falcons booth in 2012 would send the wrong message. I also think Boudreau needs to be relieved of his duties as well (which would follow a career pattern for him as he generally has a shelf life of 3-4 years at any given stop)..

[TheDirtyWordII]

I would love to hear Mike Mayock go on the record and talk about Matt Ryan in terms of his progression of his career.

Mike was such a big proponent of Matt Ryan's ability - I just wonder if he is disappointed and/or if he thinks Matt's ceiling is going to get higher at this point and time.

I would ask you this. Do you think Ryan is a Top 10 QB in the NFL? I think he's just about in the #10 range. So it's tough to say that he's been a failure.

When you look at Eli Manning's career, think about his statement about 4-5 months ago, when he put himself in the elite category of QB's. The statement was met with a lot of scoffing, but I thought Manning had a lot of chutzpah to make such a statement publicly. I didn't agree with it either, but it's how I would want my QB to react. But Ryan was asked the same question, and he gave a non-controversial "I don't concern myself with those types of things" response, which you can say was appropriate. But it lacked guts. It lacked putting ones ability on the chopping block and it also lacked Ryan's public investment and confidence in his own abilities. But now, I think Manning backed his statement up, while Ryan re-inforced his non-statement. In a way, I think that's telling...but it's also an indication of Ryan's 'happy to be in the conversation' perception of his own NFL QB status. That kind of mirrors the Falcons playoff performance and in turn struggles - a happy to be there outfit.

[JD dirtybird21]

Is Ryan solely to blame…? He certainly has some culpability, but you cannot help but think that the Falcons still have yet to become HIS team. Ryan will be 27 next season, the same age Brees was when he joined the Saints. Perhaps for the first time in his own NFL career, Ryan's legacy now hangs in the balance. No longer is he viewed as the boy wonder who somehow managed to buck conventional wisdom and become a productive playoff qualifying rookie QB. Heck, 2nd round picks are now doing that (Andy Dalton). Now he's viewed as the guy who come January turns to Matty Ice Cold. Fair or not, that perception is indisputable.

I posted my thoughts yesterday and this paragraph right here is what I agree 100% on. This isn't Matt Ryan's team, it's Michael Turner's team, and that's a problem. I posted that Ryan has TOO MANY security blankets and while they are a good thing, they are also a bad thing. They prevent fire and risks that need to be taken. Having Gonzalez and Turner doesn't force Ryan to make a ballsy decision, he just goes the safer route that in the end, just isn't enough. I believe Ryan can be an elite quarterback, but in order to get there, he needs to carry the team on his shoulders, and the team needs to be behind him. He needs to call the shots, and he needs to be thrown to the wolves without Turner and Gonzalez behind him.

[VTCrunkler]

yes, ryan is probably wary of throwing more ints and thus perpetuating his reputation as a turnover machine... thats my read on why he plays it safe, almost too safe. he would rather throw the ball away than take a risk...which may be a good thing?

I posted my thoughts yesterday and this paragraph right here is what I agree 100% on. This isn't Matt Ryan's team, it's Michael Turner's team, and that's a problem. I posted that Ryan has TOO MANY security blankets and while they are a good thing, they are also a bad thing. They prevent fire and risks that need to be taken. Having Gonzalez and Turner doesn't force Ryan to make a ballsy decision, he just goes the safer route that in the end, just isn't enough. I believe Ryan can be an elite quarterback, but in order to get there, he needs to carry the team on his shoulders, and the team needs to be behind him. He needs to call the shots, and he needs to be thrown to the wolves without Turner and Gonzalez behind him.

[JD dirtybird21]

yes, ryan is probably wary of throwing more ints and thus perpetuating his reputation as a turnover machine... thats my read on why he plays it safe, almost too safe. he would rather throw the ball away than take a risk...which may be a good thing?

But its not a good thing. You have to make mistakes in order to actually learn because you gain experience that way. If Ryan were take more risky throws, yea, he would probably throw a few more int's, but Ryan has the work ethic and the intelligence to learn from the mistakes and get better. He's not like Jay Cutler where he would just continue to make dumb decisions, he would get better. But instead, he stays the same because instead of making that risk, he just throws the 5 yard pass to Gonzalez or hands off to Turner.

[norbendon]

I think that we need to get an OC with an aggressive philosophy. First, you win and force mistakes by being aggressive. Second, I really think that the coaching staff has beaten into his head that he has to protect the ball so mauch that he's not the same, confident guy he was back in 2008 and the right change in philosophy will either make him or break him.

[g-dawg]

I'd hesitate to say I'm anti-Matt Ryan, in fact I would argue that I'm not. What I was hoping to convey was not necessarily an indictment of his physical skills as a QB which I think are still substantial...but I can't help but feel that there exists and has existed an opportunity for Ryan to establish his personal brand on the Falcons and to date, it's either not happened or if this is what it is...needs to be re-evaluated. I know it may be a little thing, but having him not be the last guy out of that tunnel stupifies me. And even the Falcons admitted earlier this season that it does matter who comes out last because when we played PHI (and Vick), Ryan was that last guy out of the tunnel. I think Ryan's first instinct is to deflect credit at all times...and that is not a bad way to be, especially when promoting the team concept. But you also have to take the figurative lead for a franchise and become it's primary and unquestioned identifier. And to date, I think Ryan has allowed himself to be identified as the leader of the Falcons on other peoples terms and not his, which runs counter to the definition of being a leader. It's not the sole criteria but a visible one for sure.

Sunday was an eye-opener for me regarding Mularkey. You can't lay a stink bomb like that without consequences. As such, to see Mularkey in the Falcons booth in 2012 would send the wrong message. I also think Boudreau needs to be relieved of his duties as well (which would follow a career pattern for him as he generally has a shelf life of 3-4 years at any given stop)..

I think you and I are in similiar places on Matt Ryan. Most on the board still support Matt but I think his limitations are more evident and most are now acknowledging that Matt's ceiling is never gonna be as high as the greats in the game today (Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers).

Realizing this, its almost like a sense of mourning sets in. Now, I still think Matt is a darn good QB - I would put his ceiling from a statisical perspective at 4,500yds and 36TDs. More importantly, I still don't know if, like you said, he is going to make this team "his own". That is what needs to happen.

One thing is certain. As long as Matt Ryan is the Falcons QB, our fortunes are going to rise and fall with how well Matty Ice plays.

[k-train]

nice read TDWIII.....that is the most "anti-Matt Ryan" I have ever heard you be.

I think we all bought into Matt when he was a rookie in 2008. I believe that year he got more accolades for his play than he deserved - although he played very well that year "for a rookie". We all just assumed that meant he would progress more and more each year he played - fact is, Matt Ryan has progressed each year - but the progression is the smallest of baby steps.

I do believe that Matt is a good QB in NFL - I also believe we will never know Matt Ryan's ceiling until we get away from Mike Mularkey. If two years from now Matt is not any better than he is right now - under different offensive coordinator - then I will be very disappointed.

I think its time to take the reigns of the offense - and give it totally over to Matt Ryan - and let's see what we have. If its not an elite type of QB, then sobeit. Matt definitely has some limitations with regards to his arm strength and athleticism - but I believe, in the right QB friendly system, that Matt could throw for 4,500yds and 36TDs........with the right offensive coordinator and an upgraded O-Line, I still think this could work at the highest level.

Right now Matt Ryan is more than a game manager but less than a difference maker. We need more from him. We need more from this offense. We need change at the OC position.

We need it now.

The part I bolded is spot on how I feel. At this point, I feel it's still too early to make a solid judgement on Ryan one way or the other, so I will reserve that until we see what he can do in a different scheme. It is past time to take off the training wheels and let these guys ride with the big boys, and if they can't... so be it.

[norbendon]

But its not a good thing. You have to make mistakes in order to actually learn because you gain experience that way. If Ryan were take more risky throws, yea, he would probably throw a few more int's, but Ryan has the work ethic and the intelligence to learn from the mistakes and get better. He's not like Jay Cutler where he would just continue to make dumb decisions, he would get better. But instead, he stays the same because instead of making that risk, he just throws the 5 yard pass to Gonzalez or hands off to Turner.

I totally agree. I think we may have to go through a season of growing pains while we let him learn how to turn it loose.

[g-dawg]

I think that we need to get an OC with an aggressive philosophy. First, you win and force mistakes by being aggressive. Second, I really think that the coaching staff has beaten into his head that he has to protect the ball so mauch that he's not the same, confident guy he was back in 2008 and the right change in philosophy will either make him or break him.

good post.....norbendon.

TDWII, I think the way Matt Ryan has been coached the last four years has affected his psyche. When Matt Ryan was at Boston College he was a gun slinger with a lot of bravado. Somewhere over the last 4 years he has lost this.

Matt needs a very aggressive Offensive Coordinator who calls plays aggressively to instill this back into his brain - and the bravado will hopefully follow.

[VTCrunkler]

this board has been highly critical of ryan at times in the past when he was dubbed a "interception waiting to happen"

he used to have loads of swagger, confidence, playmaking ability, etc. trust me, i know.

[VTCrunkler]

exactly.

I think that we need to get an OC with an aggressive philosophy. First, you win and force mistakes by being aggressive. Second, I really think that the coaching staff has beaten into his head that he has to protect the ball so mauch that he's not the same, confident guy he was back in 2008 and the right change in philosophy will either make him or break him.

[JD dirtybird21]

I think you and I are in similiar places on Matt Ryan. Most on the board still support Matt but I think his limitations are more evident and most are now acknowledging that Matt's ceiling is never gonna be as high as the greats in the game today (Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers).

I wouldn't say Matt's ceiling is NEVER gonna be as high as the greats in the game today just yet. The word never is pretty strong. Ryan can still become a top 5 quarterback.

[VTCrunkler]

you are right, he is not the same at all when he was in college. he was an intelligent gunslinger who found ways to improvise and win games. he was also a commanding leader. somewhere along the lines he has been repressed and or confidence beaten down.

good post.....norbendon.

TDWII, I think the way Matt Ryan has been coached the last four years has affected his psyche. When Matt Ryan was at Boston College he was a gun slinger with a lot of bravado. Somewhere over the last 4 years he has lost this.

Matt needs a very aggressive Offensive Coordinator who calls plays aggressively to instill this back into his brain - and the bravado will hopefully follow.

[k-train]

this board has been highly critical of ryan at times in the past when he was dubbed a "interception waiting to happen"

he used to have loads of swagger, confidence, playmaking ability, etc. trust me, i know.

So did Mike Smith, Roddy, etc... it just seemed gone from these guys all season, and I'm sure the weight of this most recent loss isn't helping.

[VTCrunkler]

I totally agree. I think we may have to go through a season of growing pains while we let him learn how to turn it loose.

then fans will just have to realize this and not get ticked off when he does throw ints..

[g-dawg]

I wouldn't say Matt's ceiling is NEVER gonna be as high as the greats in the game today just yet. The word never is pretty strong. Ryan can still become a top 5 quarterback.

well its getting close to NEVER. I seriously doubt he will ever be in their category but you have to remember that Brady/Brees/Manning are three of the best EVER QBs in NFL history - so being short of those three guys does not mean anything bad necessarily.

[metatron360]

Tell it to toney Gonzales. I guess he sucks because he hasn't got play off win. I admit we played poor against the giants but it is kinda what we could imagine as "worst case scenario" our oline was obliterated they lost the battle. That's it I guess you can blame smith and TD for that. Risk reward but we lost