Dago 3.0 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 http://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2012/1/5/2683399/why-this-saints-defense-is-better-than-you-think?ref=yahoo I keep hearing the pundits telling us to expect a close, high-scoring shootout this weekend when the Saints take on the Lions in their Wild Card game. I'm assuming it's because they see two high-powered offenses coupled with barely mediocre defenses. But don't get distracted by their flashy offense. I think the Saints defense is better than any of the 'experts' are giving them credit for and this game might not be as close as everyone thinks.That's because they're almost assuredly looking at the most obvious stat and the one that would make most sense to check first: average total yards allowed per game. And it's true, the Saints defense gives up a crap load of yardage. There's no denying that. You've seen it, I've seen it, we've all seen it. Over the last eight games, their defense has given up an average of 390.9 yards per game. Had that been their season average, it would be piss poor enough to rank them 29th overall in the league. As it stands they've completed the regular season as the 24th ranked defense overall.But what they're not looking at is the most important stat of them all, the one that matters most: points allowed per game. Over the last eight games the Saints defense has allowed an impressive average of only 18.75 points per game. Again, if that was their season average, it would be good enough to rank them 6th best among all teams.Hmmm...that's weird. How the **** is a defense giving up so much yardage but holding opponents to so few points? How does such a huge statistical discrepancy exist? It's not turnovers. Nope, they're -3 overall for the season, which ranks them 19th overall. So what could it be?It's because they're shutting that ish down when it matters most: on third down. The Saints defense finished the regular season ranked 5th in third down defense, allowing just 33.17% of opponent third downs to be converted. But they've only gotten better because over the last eight games, the defense has allowed a paltry 24.65% of third downs to be converted. That would be best in the league by a mile if it was their season average.Just as turnovers were the saving grace for the Saints 2009 defense, their success on third down in 2011 is the statistical anomaly making this year's defense surprisingly more dangerous than most would expect or give them credit for. It's the glue holding it all together. In 2009, the Saints had a 25th ranked defense but the third highest turnover margin. This year, they're a 24th ranked defense with the fifth best third down defense. Add to that the fact that they're tops in the league on offensive third downs as well and we might as well call this season for the Saints 'The Year of Third Down Domination.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuq u Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Good read Dago. 3rd down defense is where it's at. Stop 'em on 3rd down and all the rest of it matters very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dago 3.0 Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 being good on third down also helps equate into having a good red zone defense. Teams aren't going to keep up with our offense by scoring field goals. In our first game, our defense of Calvin Johnson near the goal line was brilliant....line up two defenders across from him and jam him like he is a gunner on punt coverage because no CB is going to out jump him on a fade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperAINTSfan Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 being good on third down also helps equate into having a good red zone defense. Teams aren't going to keep up with our offense by scoring field goals.In our first game, our defense of Calvin Johnson near the goal line was brilliant....line up two defenders across from him and jam him like he is a gunner on punt coverage because no CB is going to out jump him on a fade24% on third downs is a killer for other offenses. combine that with our record producing 3rd down offense and you have an 8 game win streak.EXPERTS always say you never win the same way you did before.in 09 we had turnovers, now we have 3rd down beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dago 3.0 Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Dago, I'm not saying you said this but last season most of the swampers were using thew total yardage crap as the most important measuring stick because the saints defense wasn't allowing a lot of yards. The Falcons were 5th in defensive scoring and WFW sang that from the roof tops only to get debunked by the total yardage myth! I however, happen to agree with you that the bottom line is the amount of points you give up, not the amount of yardage. So from that stand point I agree with you that the saints are better at that than most people would think given the fact they give up all the yardage but not the points that go along with that. In that respect, the Falcons are around the same number of points allowed but not the yardage. I think the saints are 21.2 ppg and the Falcons are 21.9 ppg. Are either one of these defenses good enough to win? Without a doubt, will they? Who knows? The key for both teams is getting the opponents office off the field on 3rd downs!maybe so but I wasn't one of the ones spouting that but I am the one who posted this and agrees with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dago 3.0 Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 That's what I said! So whether you like it or not, you agree with my philosophy on this subject! Good day to you sir...anybody who says that any one stat is the indicator of how an offense or defense is doing is wrong. Even points per game can be skewed due to a bad offense giving up points off turnovers or putting their defense in bad situations. The Saints over the last half of the season have pretty much been the epitome of a 'bend but don't break' defense. they aren't shutting down offenses but they are playing very well on third down and in the red zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperAINTSfan Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Dago, I'm not saying you said this but last season most of the swampers were using thew total yardage crap as the most important measuring stick because the saints defense wasn't allowing a lot of yards. The Falcons were 5th in defensive scoring and WFW sang that from the roof tops only to get debunked by the total yardage myth!your so full of ****!!!!YOU (WRW) came up with that lame yardage crap in 09the 25th ranked crap every other post in 09. I see why PP calls you a liar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart2Ryan+beyond Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 http://www.canalstre...think?ref=yahoo I keep hearing the pundits telling us to expect a close, high-scoring shootout this weekend when the Saints take on the Lions in their Wild Card game. I'm assuming it's because they see two high-powered offenses coupled with barely mediocre defenses. But don't get distracted by their flashy offense. I think the Saints defense is better than any of the 'experts' are giving them credit for and this game might not be as close as everyone thinks.That's because they're almost assuredly looking at the most obvious stat and the one that would make most sense to check first: average total yards allowed per game. And it's true, the Saints defense gives up a crap load of yardage. There's no denying that. You've seen it, I've seen it, we've all seen it. Over the last eight games, their defense has given up an average of 390.9 yards per game. Had that been their season average, it would be piss poor enough to rank them 29th overall in the league. As it stands they've completed the regular season as the 24th ranked defense overall.But what they're not looking at is the most important stat of them all, the one that matters most: points allowed per game. Over the last eight games the Saints defense has allowed an impressive average of only 18.75 points per game. Again, if that was their season average, it would be good enough to rank them 6th best among all teams.Hmmm...that's weird. How the **** is a defense giving up so much yardage but holding opponents to so few points? How does such a huge statistical discrepancy exist? It's not turnovers. Nope, they're -3 overall for the season, which ranks them 19th overall. So what could it be?It's because they're shutting that ish down when it matters most: on third down. The Saints defense finished the regular season ranked 5th in third down defense, allowing just 33.17% of opponent third downs to be converted. But they've only gotten better because over the last eight games, the defense has allowed a paltry 24.65% of third downs to be converted. That would be best in the league by a mile if it was their season average.Just as turnovers were the saving grace for the Saints 2009 defense, their success on third down in 2011 is the statistical anomaly making this year's defense surprisingly more dangerous than most would expect or give them credit for. It's the glue holding it all together. In 2009, the Saints had a 25th ranked defense but the third highest turnover margin. This year, they're a 24th ranked defense with the fifth best third down defense. Add to that the fact that they're tops in the league on offensive third downs as well and we might as well call this season for the Saints 'The Year of Third Down Domination.'Their third down and red zone D really showed itself against the Falcons (I mean in a good way). If in the latter half of the year NO's D has become good at 'bend but don't break' then that will serve them well in the playoffs - expecially with NO's offense.With NO you can't bring FGs to a TD fight.I think red zone D is the real factor. In another analysis I read it was stated that NO's first and second down D was one of the worst in the league, so the 3rd down stat is less valuable if opponents don't have to face it often.At the end of the day scoring D is the best stat of them all (not including special teams TDs or pick 6s, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st. diehard Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 In another analysis I read it was stated that NO's first and second down D was one of the worst in the league, so the 3rd down stat is less valuable if opponents don't have to face it often.They faced 202 attempts while the league median was about 10 or so more. That's not a big enough difference to be a factor.They've had some busted plays to be sure and aren't scared to trade yards when up by a couple scores, but if they get you in 3rd down they're tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart2Ryan+beyond Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 They faced 202 attempts while the league median was about 10 or so more. That's not a big enough difference to be a factor.They've had some busted plays to be sure and aren't scared to trade yards when up by a couple scores, but if they get you in 3rd down they're tough.Good stat. What I will say about GW's D is that for as long as I recall him being in NO, he's always had an aggressive style. That can burn you, but I know I hold my breath on 3rd down with his blitzes, because it'll force the QB (Ryan in Atlanta's case) to make quick decision and an accurate throw to a moving target and/or the OLine has to hold up. I'd rather die by that sword than by running a D that is a zone and have a QB have time to find a receiver in the gaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aquietguy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The real reason for our defense improvement and that 3rd down stat is that we have been much improved vs the run. Offenses are not able to just run the ball at us so they are being forced to put the ball in the air. Normally they would just be able to run the ball on us to finish the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe horn Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Our offense is like a paper shredder for opposing teams' game plans, I'd say that accounts for at least half of our improved run defense. The rest would have to be credited to our offseason additions along the line doing what we said they would, and to the naysayers (who know who they are) allow me to just say "we told you so."Because we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falconcheff Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think they're as good as I think they are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falconcheff Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 being good on third down also helps equate into having a good red zone defense. Teams aren't going to keep up with our offense by scoring field goals.In our first game, our defense of Calvin Johnson near the goal line was brilliant....line up two defenders across from him and jam him like he is a gunner on punt coverage because no CB is going to out jump him on a fade Man, that is true bend but don't break. Hold the other team to FG's, because you KNOW your offense will score TD's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRay Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 You gotta admit, Greg Williams has almost surpassed the old Gritz Blitz of Falcon lore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falconcheff Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 What I'll admit is the ability to play with recklessness, knowing your offense can overcome any mistakes you might make in overpursuit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe horn Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The best defense is... a good offense? WHY THE EFF NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st. diehard Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 What I'll admit is the ability to play with recklessness, knowing your offense can overcome any mistakes you might make in overpursuitBecause we've realized most other teams suck at figuring out what makes a great offense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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