Ok Enough Trollin: Saints Vs Falcons Matchup Discussion

[joe horn 2,427]

It's been an entertaining last couple of weeks since the Falcons have gotten their ship back on course and the Saints have continued their hot streak - a collision was inevitable.

Some basic facts and numbers to get this thread rolling:

Home team: New Orleans Saints Saints 11-3(6-0 home) 151 point margin of victory, #1 offense, #24 defense

Visitors: Atlanta Falcons 9-5 (4-3 road) 60 point margin of victory, #13 offense, #9 defense

Saints have the #1 passing attack and #8 rushing attack going up against the Falcons' 17th ranked pass D and 4th ranked rush defense.

Falcons will field the 9th ranked passing and18th ranked rushing attacks vs the Saints' 28th ranked pass D and 13th ranked Rushing defense.

The Saints average 32.6 PPG on offense while surrendering an average of 21.9 PPG.

The Falcons average 24.4 PPG on O and give up 20.1 on D.

Saints hold onto the ball for an average of 31:51

.

Falcons have an average TOP of 32:13.

Turnover margin is -3 for the Saints and +5 for the Falcons.

That's how the numbers match up.

How does RC see the indivdual players matching up?

[WhenFalconsWin 27,645]

It will come down to a big play. Forget the match ups, It will come down to one team or another's defense to make the 4th down stop. If it is the Falcons then they need to watch Graham or Colston over the middle. If it is the saints and a short yardage stop they will be eyeing Turner but a play fake to him and a toss to Gonzo might seal the saints fate!

Both QBs will get it done...

Pressure is key from both DLs...

If the Falcons get the running game going they win...

If the saints run on us they win...

[Bart2Ryan+beyond 852]

Bravo Joe for starting this thread!

For me it comes down to how well can the Falcons protect Ryan from Williams' blitz packages as I've always felt that the one advantage the Saints' D has over the Falcons' D is their ability to bring pressure more consistently - it is an aggressive style of D. Williams will be dammed if he's going to let Ryan be comfortable in the pocket. The Falcons' OLine and protection schemes will be tested as will their hot reads and Ryan's accuracy.

Brees is hard to pressure. He is accurate, decides quickly and has a quick release, plus he's mobile enough to buy time. The Saints' O makes you defend the entire field. Brees distributes the ball very well and Payton has a knack for calling the right screen pass at the right time (usually for 20 + yards).

So my biggest concern going in is "can the Falcons protect Ryan as well as the Saints protect Brees?"

The other factor is red-zone effectiveness. I think you'll see both teams have long drives, but whose D will buckle up when it gets close? A FG after a 70yd+ drive against NO sucks if they're getting TDs.

In the Smith/Ryan era, the games against NO have been exceptionally close and I expect the same Monday. TOs will be huge obviously. But the above two points are what I see as the keys to watch.

[Ethos 2,377]

The team with the best turnover margin will win on Monday night. IMO.

[falconsd56 26,641]

nice thread.

It comes down to pressure.... for both teams

The saints CAN NOT cover the falcons wrs one on one however if the Oline does not give Ryan time to find the favorable one on ones then it will not matter.

If the Falcons can protect Ryan and pick the blitz up Julio, Roddy and Tony should get some favorable looks.

On defense the falcons must pressure Brees better then we did in the first game. Our secondary matches up better to their receivers then theirs does to ours, but that means little If Brees can drop back, chug some water, flip through channels, and make a panini sandwich and then find his 6th option then we will be DOA.

We have to go after him either by it being Abe being healthy or sending spoon every other play, we need to get pressure, if we did that and get Brees a split second off his mark we have a great chance.

all of the other common stuff like turnovers will make a difference but how well each teams brings pressure/handles pressure will be the ultimate key IMO

[SaintRay 4,660]

the saints offense will score enough points to win the game.

The Saints defense has to stop Atlanta from keeping up. So for Greg Williams, this means taking away a key element from Atlanta....probably the rushing attack. They have successfully done this before with Turner, holding him to 98 and 48 yards in the last 2 meetings, and they've done it the last 2 weeks in a row against Chris Johnson (23 yards) and Adrian Peterson (60 yards). If this happens, Matt Ryan will be forced to win with his passing game in a scheme designed to rush the ball.

Atlanta will attempt to take something away from Brees, likely Sproles again like Week 10. But with the recent emergence of Meachem deep, the Falcons will have to respect the long ball. This will pressure the linebackers/safties to slow the middle of the field on intermediate routes to Graham, Colston and Moore. I also see the Falcons bringing 5 guys in passing situations to pressure Brees. The Saints will challenge the Falcon defense.

In the end, I don't believe the pass rush of either team will be a huge factor. Red zone scoring will win in this game.

As always, turnovers will play a part in this game. If either team turns it over 2+ times, I suspect they lose the game.

[DD: Objective Elite 3,779]

I keep thinking back to our last match-up and the fact Atlanta didn't get near Brees all game long. I really think hope BVG sends extra men at least 50% of the defensive snaps, he was far too comfortable in the pocket last game. Atlanta could send a mix of Spoon, Moore, Lofton all have done well in blitz packages.

Brees will no doubt burn the blitz a few times, it's better than letting him sit back and pick our defense apart. With his weapons, all he has to do is play pitch and catch, right down the field. Last game I thought Atlanta tackled very well, they have to do the same here. If you give the Saints big YAC, you're chances to beat them go the way of the Dodo. I do like Atlanta's run defense in this match-up, our linebackers speed contained Sproles in the last game.

On offense, Atlanta has to establish the run game, even if it's 3 yards at a time. The recipe for beating the Saints(or any high powered offense) is to play keep away. The problem with that is Williams will stack the box and hit the Falcons with exotic run/pass blitzes. Atlanta's Offensive line must open holes this game. Ryan is gonna have to find the single covered receiver, consistently.

The thing that worries me the most is the fact Atlanta will have problems running the no huddle in the Dome, the same thing happened at Houston. We all know how that turned out.

I think Atlanta has too much going against them in this one.

ATL 24

NO 30

[SuperAINTSfan 4,014]

the key will be atlantas safeties. Graham was doubled alot and the lbs spyed sproles leaving colston over the middle.

if they change to take the middle away then sproles and graham will dominate

on defense for the saints its merely stops in the redzone.

theyve been good lately on this win streak

i dont see defenses dominating on either side.

itll come down to redzone efficiency on both sides of the ball

31-20 saints

Edited December 21, 2011 by SuperSK

[Borat 2,409]

It'll be a close on again.

[SaintRay 4,660]

It'll be a close on again.

Great analysis there Borat!

Edited December 21, 2011 by SaintRay

[THE johnnybuc 115]

The team with the best turnover margin will win on Monday night. IMO.

I say....The team that scores the most points will WIN.

[st. diehard 599]

I think the key is going to be the Saints better Oline. It's going to keep Brees clean and then begin to open run lanes when the falcons pull the safety out of the box.

Having Ivory's power running is going to allow them to close out the game this time.

[Ethan...Again 171]

Abe finally looks healthy. If we rush 3 at any point in this game i will scream. We should be rushing 4 linemen every single play and 5-6 every other play. Bring the Pain. Bring Moore and Dunta in on a blitz. Mix it up. You can't throw **** at drew brees that he's seen before. he'll be yelling at van gorder "cmon bro i'm insulted you tried that **** 2 years ago" We need some creative blitzing IMO.

[ThunderCookie 216]

I think it will come down to the two OLB for Atlanta. If Spoon can help out against Graham and Peterson starts instead of Nicholas, then we might have a chance.

But if MM decides to start the game with his "all pass for no reason with no rhythm" like he is prone to do against opportunistic defenses, then nothing else will matter. The Falcons will start so far behind that the Saints will be raising the NFCS banner at half time.

[THE johnnybuc 115]

I think the key is going to be the Saints better Oline. It's going to keep Brees clean and then begin to open run lanes when the falcons pull the safety out of the box.

Having Ivory's power running is going to allow them to close out the game this time.

Hasn't the Falcons O-line been looking much better of late? Turner grabs 100 yards and Ryan doesn't turn the ball over I can see the Falcons taking this one.

[Ryan2Julio11 818]

We need to put pressure on Brees., any qb can look average with pressure in his face.

[st. diehard 599]

Hasn't the Falcons O-line been looking much better of late? Turner grabs 100 yards and Ryan doesn't turn the ball over I can see the Falcons taking this one.

They've definitely cleaned up the pass protection. I don't believe Turner's been breaking 100 much since early on. I don't see the Saints letting them feed him all game.

If they can lean on him and not turn the ball over, that would be worst case scenario for the Saints, obviously. I'm not concerned with that however as I feel the Saints have game-planned against it.

I'm nervous about slants, curls, and dumpoffs to White, Jones, and Rodgers. The achilles of the Saints D this year has been short receptions exploiting our weak LBs and mistackles by the DBs resulting in huge plays. Otherwise, the D has played surprisingly well, pass rush and takeaways excepted.

[THE johnnybuc 115]

They've definitely cleaned up the pass protection. I don't believe Turner's been breaking 100 much since early on. I don't see the Saints letting them feed him all game.

If they can lean on him and not turn the ball over, that would be worst case scenario for the Saints, obviously. I'm not concerned with that however as I feel the Saints have game-planned against it.

I'm nervous about slants, curls, and dumpoffs to White, Jones, and Rodgers. The achilles of the Saints D this year has been short receptions exploiting our weak LBs and mistackles by the DBs resulting in huge plays. Otherwise, the D has played surprisingly well, pass rush and takeaways excepted.

Fortunately for you all the Falcons don't run a lot of screens............or do they?

[Ethan...Again 171]

I predict another 3 point game with all of us on the edge of our seat. That's the only thing you can expect. Could be another low scoring game. Could be a shootout. This particular game has so many possibilities i'm not gonna bother predicting whats gonna happen except one thing. Both teams are hot at the right time. I honestly believe that if Julio is 1 on 1 with his man though. He's gonna go for 100+ and 2 tds. I just don't see Tracy Porter doing much to stop Julio. Run some quick slants against the blitz esp if Porter is playin off the line. Julio has already shown he can turn that into huge yardage and touchdowns.

Edited December 21, 2011 by Ethan...Again

[ThunderCookie 216]

Fortunately for you all the Falcons don't run a lot of screens............or do they?

Not very many at all.

[falconidae 21,327]

One of the keys will be getting Grimes back- not because he's a "Brees killer", but because you need all your CBs, esp. your best CB, healthy when playing Brees.

Both Abraham and Edwards have been playing hurt all year- Abe said he was healthy after the JAX game, and Edwards has been playing better lately. Doesn't mean I'm expecting a 3.5 sack night just because he did that against a scrub OT, but a good game from Abraham makes a win much more probable.

Ryan has to keep up his superlative play- he has 17 TDs and 4 INTs his last 6 games. One of those INTs hit White in the hands and he tipped it to a saints player, one White let the DB get in front of him on a slant, one Jones misread the coverage, one was off a badly executed flea flicker. He also had a game winning & a game tying TD pass dropped. And a dozen catchable balls dropped in the Houston game. Aside from misses on deep passes, Ryan has been superlative since Baker was replaced.

And yes, I know, Brees numbers are even better over the same stretch [18-1], but Ryan has to play well for the falcons to have a chance.

Even with Brees, it comes down to line play. Rivers is having a rough year because 6 of his top 9 Olinemen are out, Rodgers looked much more human minus 3 OTs, Rams beat the saints because their Oline got overwhelmed, Ryan has played much better since the falcons fixed the Oline.

Think that the falcon's Oline can keep Ryan upright, if Edwards & Abraham can bring pressure on Brees, Falcons can win.

[fuq u 601]

I say....The team that scores the most points will WIN.

Now there's a man who knows some football!! I think it'll be redzone play and turnovers that decide this one. These teams know each other too well to get cute with anything other than some smash-mouth football.

[kane#7 4,234]

Fortunately for you all the Falcons don't run a lot of screens............or do they?

Whats a screen?? lol... Our Oline isn't athletic enough to run one it usually ends up in MR getting killed and the RB getting tackled where he catches it.

The problem for the Saints in that area will be Julio and HD YAC... when we run Julio on a drag route it can be very dangerous.

Edited December 21, 2011 by kane#7

[Shredman 1,865]

key match ups

Trenches

Falcons D Line vs Saints O Line

M Turner vs Saint LBs

Falcons WRs vs Saint DBs

the key is Pressure on Brees

we get it, we will more than likely win

we dont and he will Carve us a new azzhole

[SuperAINTSfan 4,014]

we can all assume all kinds of theories, but as the last few years have shown, theres no ******* telling what will happen. All we know is it will be hard nosed to the end.

last year the first game was a complete opposite of the last one. BVG blitzed like crazy. GW stopped turner and made ryan pass.

this year i can see something completely different from earlier this year.

**** for we know the saints may try to control the clock and keep the ball out of ryans hands