If the Falcons are going to appear in a SuperBowl under Mike Smith...

[Atlsport]

It seems as though he is coming up on the peak time for taking the team. Haven't most of the recent (if not all time)SuperBowl coaches been with their teams only a few years, usually five or less before making it to the SuperBowl?

There's a few guys who are early birds so to speak, Whisenhunt, Caldwell, Tomlin, Bellichick even the Falcons own Reeves who make it within two years of being with a team. Then there is peak time, which is usually about three to five years, which is probably the mean. That's followed by what has to be very few who make it in their sixth year. Besides, It doesn't seem as though a coach would stick around long enough to make it after the sixth year.

I didn't look this up, its from recollection so if any of you researching types care to discredit or confirm I'd be curious to see how accurate that is. If that's accurate then the good news is that, Smith's best chances for having the Falcons play for the title is this year or next. On the flip side, if he can't get the team there by the 2012 season, then his chances start to drop and he probably wouldn't be the coach to get us there.

Thoughts?

[Peyton]

I've always compare the Falcons rebuilding process to that of the Cowboys in the early 90s.

Johnson made it in year 4.

The Falcons have done a lot better than the Cowboys in the first 3 years of the process, but the competition the Falcons are facing this year is a lote more formidable than what the Cowboys faced.

So yeah, I'd say this team is heading into it's peak. Will it be enough? We have to stay tuned to find out.

[FalconMama]

I've always compare the Falcons rebuilding process to that of the Cowboys in the early 90s.

Johnson made it in year 4.

The Falcons have done a lot better than the Cowboys in the first 3 years of the process, but the competition the Falcons are facing this year is a lote more formidable than what the Cowboys faced.

So yeah, I'd say this team is heading into it's peak. Will it be enough? We have to stay tuned to find out.

*cues up music* Dun Dun Duuuuunnnnnn :ph34r:

[Peyton]

Reid was in his 6th year when the Eagles made the Super Bowl, Dungy in his 5th in Indy, Fisher in his 6th when the Titans made it.

I mean, most teams who are consistently in the playoffs ultimately do get there. SD is the one exception I can think of.

[phattywankenobi]

I think the average coaching gig is around 3 years for mediocre to bad. If they win one Superbowl then the coach might be around a lot longer than they should. There's also guys like Schottenheimer with the Chargers. He never made it to the Superbowl in his 5 years there but he finished all but one year with a winning record and was eventually fired anyway.

So if you go by Schottenheimer then Smith needs to win it all this year or next but considering how much this franchise has turned around and franchise records are being set recently I think he might stick around a bit longer. The only thing is now that the bar has been raised I as well as many others will grow impatient quickly if we are hoisting the Lombardi soon.

[Atlsport]

I think that impatience will really start to kick in if he doesn't get the team there by next year. Wow, I wasn't even considering Schottenheimer in this, and now that I have its not a pleasant thought.

What is interesting about Fisher and Reid is that they made it as late as possible, and they are both still around. I tend to believe that after a number of years pass without making it back to the SB the chances begin to diminish, under that coach at the particular team. Fisher has been the subject of that in the past, there's no way he could have lasted that long in other markets e.g. NY. I wasn't aware how long Reid had been at his post, but considering that I think he probably should be down to his last gasp.

[Brewcrew]

I wasn't aware how long Reid had been at his post, but considering that I think he probably should be down to his last gasp.

Exactly why he said "screw the cap" and went about acquiring every single big name FA on the market he could get his hands on this off-season.

[PokerSteve]

I believe there is a lot of merit in what you're saying. The life-cycle of competitiveness in the NFL is (usually) a very short cycle, although there are definitely exceptions. That's pretty clear from the NFC South over the past few years, when the worst team in the division would end up on top or near the top and make the play-offs the next season.

In the case of the Falcons, the head coach and the GM are almost a tandem as both were hired in the same year and have put the team together as a single unit. If they continue to draft and select free agents and mold the overall product as a unit and keep winning 10 or more games per season there is no serious doubt in my mind the organization will get to the SB within the next two to three years.

If they haven't managed to reach the SB after the 2015 season, many of the skill players which formed the neucleus of the Smith/Dimitroff regime will have reached the peak of their potential and will be on the down-hill slide. At that point, the falling won-loss record, fan disenchantment, bad publicity and declining revenues will trigger major changes from management to the players on the field.

That's the way things work in the NFL. It's a make-things-happen-now kind of business.

Edited September 9, 2011 by PokerSteve