Now this is a preseason rant

[Finally]

The Fraud that is Preseason Football Written by Nate Dunlevy | 15 August 2011

The NFL is perpetuating a fraud against its fans.

It's called the NFL preseason.

Today, I'm not going to rail about the insanity of charging regular season prices for preseason games. That issue has been hacked to death.

No, today, I want to talk about the way many in the media, particularly those in broadcast networks with game rights are trying to convince fans that the preseason means something.

You'll hear lip service paid to the idea 'it's just preseason', but then the rest of the analysis is bent on trying to convince the viewer that what they are watching will have some kind of effect on the regular season.

For the most part, Colts fans should know instinctively that preseason football is meaningless, but I've detected angst from normally reliable sources. Let me put everyone's mind at ease:

THE PRESEASON IS MEANINGLESS.

While a handful of observations about specific players may or may not have any utility as we try and project the regular season, one thing is certain: the outcome of games doesn't matter.

At all. On any level.

I'm not the first person to do this kind of study, but it bears repeating. There is no connection between winning in the preseason and winning in the regular season. In fact, there's a slight inverse correlation.

Preseason Records Correlated Against Regular Season Records in the NFL

Year Correlation

2008 -0.13

2009 0.05

2010 -0.07

2008-2010 -0.11

Correlations that low are not strong. They are essentially meaningless, random noise. Even so, what little correlation there is between winning in the preseason and winning in the regular season is actually negative. In other words, a good preseason might actually be a BAD sign for a team.

Since 2008, the best preseason record belongs to the Lions (10-2). The worst? Indianapolis at 2-11.

The best regular season record? Indianapolis (36-12). The Lions are the worst at 8-40.

Of the top 7 preseason records since 2008, three of them belong to the worst teams in football over that same stretch (Detroit, Saint Louis, Seattle). Another team, San Fransisco is also under .500 in that stretch.

It's no wonder that Steve Spagnuolo perhaps chided the Colts for not playing hard in the preseason. Winning in the preseason is what he does best. His Rams are 6-2 in the preseason. Too bad they've gone 8-26 under him in the regular season

In 2008, 9 teams won at least 3 games in the preseason. 5 had winning records in the regular season. 4 did not. The Lions won all four preseason games and then promptly lost all 16 regular season games.

In 2009, 13 teams won 3 games. 7 had winning records in the regular season. Four teams went undefeated. Two finished under .500 on the year, and the third, Baltimore, won 9 games and slid into the playoffs. One of the three 0-4 teams (Arizona) went to the playoffs.

In 2010, 10 teams won at least 3 preseason games, including the 49ers who went undefeated. Only two of the 10 had winning records in the regular season. The two winless teams were the Colts and Bears, both of whom won their divisions.

Preseason results are beyond meaningless. They aren't just meaningless in the sense of, "Well, we know you can overcome a tough preseason, but it's really better to do well!" kind of way.

Preseason results are meaningless in the kind of way that might actually mislead fans and analysts from accurately assessing teams.

http://18to88.com/2011-archives/august/the-fraud-that-is-preseason-football.html

[Peyton]

What a waste of effort. I don't recall anyone in the media ever trying to tell me that a pre season win actually meant something. He'd have to give me an example for me to know what the h*ll he is talking about.

[Geneaut]

Good, and informative read.

I watch pre-season every year. I look forward to it. However, I could care less about how the team does on the scoreboard. I tend to watch individuals in pre-season. Who looks good on the field. Who looks bigger/faster/stronger after an off season, or maybe who looks smaller/slower/weaker? What newbies are battling for a position ... be it starting or backup. How are disappointing performers from the year before doing. Does anyone jump out at me with some noticeable skill set.

The preseason games themselves are just a wrapping to see all of the above in a semi-controlled setting. It's like a laboratory.

[Finally]

What a waste of effort. I don't recall anyone in the media ever trying to tell me that a pre season win actually meant something. He'd have to give me an example for me to know what the h*ll he is talking about.

Ever watch NFLN?

[Tandy]

But... but.... but... :blink:

[Tandy]

What a waste of effort. I don't recall anyone in the media ever trying to tell me that a pre season win actually meant something. He'd have to give me an example for me to know what the h*ll he is talking about.

Last year, by the time the preseason was over, the media had Ryan as a bust, Falcons on the downslide, Roddy back to his old ways - dropsy turvy with not much to look forward to and Turner - well, just mark him overdone and toss him in the trash.

They went so far as to say that the Falcons Organization didn't think Ryan could be a Franchise QB and the "doubts" were springing up everywhere.

This lasted until game 2 in fact.

But, if you want some examples - how about some fresh ones. Watch MNF tonight.

I'll jot down all of the comments that would lead one to believe this game has some impact on regular season play - and tomorrow - I'll post them in this thread for you.

[Finally]

Last year, by the time the preseason was over, the media had Ryan as a bust, Falcons on the downslide, Roddy back to his old ways - dropsy turvy with not much to look forward to and Turner - well, just mark him overdone and toss him in the trash.

They went so far as to say that the Falcons Organization didn't think Ryan could be a Franchise QB and the "doubts" were springing up everywhere.

This lasted until game 2 in fact.

But, if you want some examples - how about some fresh ones. Watch MNF tonight.

I'll jot down all of the comments that would lead one to believe this game has some impact on regular season play - and tomorrow - I'll post them in this thread for you.

AFMB is going to need a bigger server.

[shockerfalcon]

Tandy's right just look at the beat down pitt put on the eagals. On sportcenter they start off by saying its just preseason then over the next hour or so disect the game like they would a reg season game. Heck just read some of the headlines from some of the preseason games.

[bigFLIP10]

I was in Kroger a few days after the Miami game. A guy in a Falcon hat walks by a Kroger employee. They say something about the Falcons. I heard the guy in the hat say the Falcons played good in the 1st quarter (17-0). The Kroger employee replied, "They have to play good in all four quarters, like the Eagles..."

He was right. If we ever need to count on Froman, Rodgers, Strickland and Cone......

[TeamPlayer1]

Wait, wait! The assumption is that if you beat a team in preseason then you own them! Maybe we don't even have to play the regular season because it has all been decided.

I had no idea the NFL was that simple.

[Peyton]

OK.....I guess I stand corrected.

I don't spend a lot of time....or any time...watching talking heads, so I guess I was a little out of the loop as to how assinine they had gotten.

My bad.

[The Falcon Jedi Knight]

I kind of like how the Patriots do it. They go full blast in the pre-season and destroy teams. And they continue that into the regular season. They have the Rings and records to prove it works.

[paulitik]

Last year, by the time the preseason was over, the media had Ryan as a bust, Falcons on the downslide, Roddy back to his old ways - dropsy turvy with not much to look forward to and Turner - well, just mark him overdone and toss him in the trash.

They went so far as to say that the Falcons Organization didn't think Ryan could be a Franchise QB and the "doubts" were springing up everywhere.

This lasted until game 2 in fact.

But, if you want some examples - how about some fresh ones. Watch MNF tonight.

I'll jot down all of the comments that would lead one to believe this game has some impact on regular season play - and tomorrow - I'll post them in this thread for you.

Sorry Tandy, I don't recall that being the case. Maybe a few did, but I remember a lot of pre-season expectations, even a few that thought we would overtake the Ain'ts in the South.

Guys, the preseason may suck, it may not be fair that you have to pay full price for a game that doesn't count, but it absolutely has meaning. How else are you supposed to evaluate talent? Just because they don't count on the W/L record doesn't mean you should dismiss the performances. By no means is it the end all be all of how a team as a whole performs, but it absolutely can give you clues to see if you are making the correct adjustments.

I didn't see Smitty or Arthur Blank laughing off our Preseason performance. I heard that Blank was seriously disappointed in some rookies goofing around on the sidelines when the Jags went into victory formation.

Take Julio for instance, no one has any right to criticize me for being concerned about our CB depth, then talk about how great Julio is already affecting the offense for the better. Too many folks want to have their cake and eat it too. Preseason matters, just doesn't count on the record.

EDIT: I remember the Michael Lombardi report about Ryan, and it was immediately dismissed.

[Finally]

Sorry Tandy, I don't recall that being the case. Maybe a few did, but I remember a lot of pre-season expectations, even a few that thought we would overtake the Ain'ts in the South.

Guys, the preseason may suck, it may not be fair that you have to pay full price for a game that doesn't count, but it absolutely has meaning. How else are you supposed to evaluate talent? Just because they don't count on the W/L record doesn't mean you should dismiss the performances. By no means is it the end all be all of how a team as a whole performs, but it absolutely can give you clues to see if you are making the correct adjustments.

I didn't see Smitty or Arthur Blank laughing off our Preseason performance. I heard that Blank was seriously disappointed in some rookies goofing around on the sidelines when the Jags went into victory formation.

Take Julio for instance, no one has any right to criticize me for being concerned about our CB depth, then talk about how great Julio is already affecting the offense for the better. Too many folks want to have their cake and eat it too. Preseason matters, just doesn't count on the record.

EDIT: I remember the Michael Lombardi report about Ryan, and it was immediately dismissed.

I think you missed the point. The preseason games are meaningless to fans. Well, they may mean something to fantasy football players and armchair GMs but even then it is not really worth a full price seat. They do mean something to the coaching staff and FOs. If it were up to them the talent would be so deep we would be effective with UDFA scrubs out there so naturally they are disappointed if we can't put together a scoring drive or prevent one. Also, it is a full dress rehearsal and anyone wanting to make the team should be treating it like a real game.

We blather on about performances here like it is important but all we really do is kill time and pad Arthur Blank's pockets with advertising dollars.

Personally I like to watch them play and I am always interested in how the depth is coming along but it is not like I would drive to Atlanta and pay full price for a seat. The only time I can see it being worth it is if you live in a city that is hosting one that Atlanta won't be playing that year and that is your only time to see them live.

[FalconFanSince1970]

By the way:

2008-2011

Preseason - Falcons 6-8 (.429)

Regular Season - Falcons 33-15 (.688)

[Finally]

By the way:

2008-2011

Preseason - Falcons 6-8 (.429)

Regular Season - Falcons 33-15 (.688)

Last year you were on a rampage about winning preseason games and now this year you get it. I like to see growth.

[pzummo]

Let's go out and get our $&@*es handed to us by Pittsburgh this week! Woohoo 0-4 Preseason here we come!!!

It really just doesn't feel right doing that. I will continue to watch and hope our fringe players beat the crap out of their fringe players. In the end, the losses don't bother me. But I still have to pull for a win.

Like others have said, it's nice to see how some of our depth players perform. It's nice to see HD with his speed back. It's nice to see Bear Woods make a nice ST play. It's nice to see Redman direct the offense to points. It's not nice to see our players competing for the Nickel job get beat. It's nice to see some football. Would I rather 2 less Preseason games and two more regular season games? Yes. Do I think it's fair to do that to all of the teams in the NFL? No. Teams with a QB competition or rookies thrown in key roles need the extra games to be ready for the regular season IMO. It's also not fair to charge full price for Preseason games. Either way, I'm just happy to see some football.

[Finally]

Let's go out and get our $&@*es handed to us by Pittsburgh this week! Woohoo 0-4 Preseason here we come!!!

It really just doesn't feel right doing that. I will continue to watch and hope our fringe players beat the crap out of their fringe players. In the end, the losses don't bother me. But I still have to pull for a win.

I don't really pull for a win or a loss. I am indifferent. Especially in last week's game. We practiced with them all week. Without additional game planning they were as ready for us as we were for them.

Then you have this:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/21/coaches-not-allowed-to-compare-notes-before-preseason-games/

So even though they are not supposed to compare notes evidently it is so common that Payton was surprised not to get a call.

[dmite]

But, if you want some examples - how about some fresh ones. Watch MNF tonight.

I'll jot down all of the comments that would lead one to believe this game has some impact on regular season play - and tomorrow - I'll post them in this thread for you.

I don't have specific examples, but it was funny watching the Monday Night Countdown.

[chitowndirtybird]

The Fraud that is Preseason Football Written by Nate Dunlevy | 15 August 2011

The NFL is perpetuating a fraud against its fans.

It's called the NFL preseason.

Today, I'm not going to rail about the insanity of charging regular season prices for preseason games. That issue has been hacked to death.

No, today, I want to talk about the way many in the media, particularly those in broadcast networks with game rights are trying to convince fans that the preseason means something.

You'll hear lip service paid to the idea 'it's just preseason', but then the rest of the analysis is bent on trying to convince the viewer that what they are watching will have some kind of effect on the regular season.

For the most part, Colts fans should know instinctively that preseason football is meaningless, but I've detected angst from normally reliable sources. Let me put everyone's mind at ease:

THE PRESEASON IS MEANINGLESS.

While a handful of observations about specific players may or may not have any utility as we try and project the regular season, one thing is certain: the outcome of games doesn't matter.

At all. On any level.

I'm not the first person to do this kind of study, but it bears repeating. There is no connection between winning in the preseason and winning in the regular season. In fact, there's a slight inverse correlation.

Preseason Records Correlated Against Regular Season Records in the NFL

Year Correlation

2008 -0.13

2009 0.05

2010 -0.07

2008-2010 -0.11

Correlations that low are not strong. They are essentially meaningless, random noise. Even so, what little correlation there is between winning in the preseason and winning in the regular season is actually negative. In other words, a good preseason might actually be a BAD sign for a team.

Since 2008, the best preseason record belongs to the Lions (10-2). The worst? Indianapolis at 2-11.

The best regular season record? Indianapolis (36-12). The Lions are the worst at 8-40.

Of the top 7 preseason records since 2008, three of them belong to the worst teams in football over that same stretch (Detroit, Saint Louis, Seattle). Another team, San Fransisco is also under .500 in that stretch.

It's no wonder that Steve Spagnuolo perhaps chided the Colts for not playing hard in the preseason. Winning in the preseason is what he does best. His Rams are 6-2 in the preseason. Too bad they've gone 8-26 under him in the regular season

In 2008, 9 teams won at least 3 games in the preseason. 5 had winning records in the regular season. 4 did not. The Lions won all four preseason games and then promptly lost all 16 regular season games.

In 2009, 13 teams won 3 games. 7 had winning records in the regular season. Four teams went undefeated. Two finished under .500 on the year, and the third, Baltimore, won 9 games and slid into the playoffs. One of the three 0-4 teams (Arizona) went to the playoffs.

In 2010, 10 teams won at least 3 preseason games, including the 49ers who went undefeated. Only two of the 10 had winning records in the regular season. The two winless teams were the Colts and Bears, both of whom won their divisions.

Preseason results are beyond meaningless. They aren't just meaningless in the sense of, "Well, we know you can overcome a tough preseason, but it's really better to do well!" kind of way.

Preseason results are meaningless in the kind of way that might actually mislead fans and analysts from accurately assessing teams.

http://18to88.com/2011-archives/august/the-fraud-that-is-preseason-football.html

To me, this is a bullet point list of reasons why pre-season football needs to go away or be shortened.

[pencilpusher. just because]

Why shouldn't they charge regular season prices for preseason games?

If dummies are willing to pay that price, and they obviously are, there's nothing wrong with charging what someone is willing to pay.