falcons defense almost elite...wow

[crankdatfalcon]

Atlanta Falcons' D is close to eliteAtlanta needs another edge rusher and to shore up its rush defenseEmailPrintComments39 By KC Joyner

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The Atlanta Falcons have had the most controversial NFL offseason from a personnel moves perspective because of the draft-day trade they made with the Cleveland Browns to get the first-round pick they used to select Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones.

The Dirty Birds took a lot of grief for this move for many reasons.

The most widely noted of these is the perception they paid too much for a wide receiver. Rookies at that position often don't contribute immediately and therefore the thought is that Jones won't help the Falcons get through the Super Bowl window that looks to be open for them right now.

As true as that statement generally is, an Insider article in May detailed how Jones' skill set is a perfect fit for the Atlanta offense and should allow him to vault the Falcons' passing game into a higher gear.

Having said that, even if the Jones scenario pans out as planned, picking up a wideout with that draft pick also meant that Atlanta was not able to draft one of the 11 available defensive prospects at No. 6 that Scouts Inc. had ranked as a 90 or higher (their benchmark for a "rare prospect").

That side of the ball certainly looks like it needs its share of upgrades, as the Falcons had multiple defensive statistical weaknesses, including rushing yards per attempt (YPA) allowed (4.6, tied for 27th in the league) and sacks (31, tied for 20th).

As bad as those numbers are, a closer look at the metrics shows that Atlanta is actually in terrific shape on defense and could be on the verge of becoming one of the best defenses in the NFL.

There is ample evidence for this in both the passing and rushing departments.

Let's start with the aerial side of things, as Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson give the Falcons the makings of a terrific secondary.

Grimes ended the 2010 season allowing only 475 yards on the 96 passes thrown his way. That equates to a 4.9 YPA mark, a total that was the third-best in the league among qualifying cornerbacks (minimum of 29 targets).

Robinson wasn't quite at that level, but his 6.9 overall YPA was good enough to tie for 30th.

To put their combined performances into perspective, consider that Grimes and Robinson faced a total of 172 passes and gave up 996 yards. Divide those up and it equals a 5.8 composite YPA, which is the best composite YPA of any group of qualifying cornerbacks in the NFL last season.

Cornerback coverage isn't the only area the Falcons excelled in through the air. They also snagged 22 interceptions, the fourth-highest mark in the league.

In addition, they were among the best in the NFL in forcing opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions (a bad decision being defined as when a quarterback makes an error with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover). Passers made mistakes of this nature on 3.5 percent of the aerials thrown at the Falcons in 2010, a mark that was the sixth-best in the league.

Things don't look quite as good on the ground, but Atlanta did have some notable bright spots against the run.

Tops on this list is its ranking in the ROBIN run-metric system. This is a run-block grading system I have been using variations of since 2005 (explained here).

In this year's system, the grading method was altered somewhat to give it a focus on measuring how often a running back received a favorable/unfavorable blocking situation (unfavorable situations being plays where a defender wins a point of attack battle, the defense executes a successful run blitz, etc.). Doing well in this metric is critical because offenses tend to average only a yard per carry on plays with unfavorable blocking situations.

In one sense, Atlanta's defense was lights out in this area. The Falcons presented offenses with an unfavorable blocking situation on 52.2 percent of the running plays they faced, a total that was the third-highest in the league.

The bad news is the Falcons gave up 8.7 YPA on plays with favorable blocking, and that mark was by far the worst in the league (it was a half-yard worse than the second-to-last place team).

As daunting as that last metric sounds, Atlanta really may not have to make big changes to correct it.

Let's illustrate this by first noting that a median ranking in favorable blocking YPA allowed is 6.5.

Now consider that the Falcons allowed five rushes of over 40 yards last season (a mark that ranked next-to-last). All of those rushes occurred on plays with favorable blocking and opposing ballcarriers gained 280 yards on those runs (or 56 yards per play).

The league average for number of rushes of 40 or more yards allowed last year was two. If Atlanta could simply reduce its total down to the league average, it would ostensibly eliminate around 150 yards from its opponents' favorable blocking category. Recalculate their total in that metric with the 150 yards removed and Atlanta's YPA drops to 7.7.

That is halfway to a respectable mark and can be accomplished simply by getting more solid tackling by the safeties. Throw in a few improvements in gap discipline and this area will no longer be an exploitable weakness.

If that occurs, the only real defensive need for the Falcons will be to add another edge pass rusher. Since the free agent market will feature more than a few high quality pass rushing defensive ends (Ray Edwards, Mathias Kiwanuka, Charles Johnson, Cullen Jenkins, Jason Babin, etc.), Atlanta can solve this issue with some aggressive deal making once the lockout ends and the signing period begins.

Given their slew of other strengths on the defensive side of the ball, and an offense that should be potent (assuming it shores up its line), it might be a signing that leads the Falcons to a berth in Super Bowl XLVI.

[revenge]

So if we were "elite," would we have only given up 35 in the playoffs?

The Steelers have an elite defense and gave up 31.

[KANE337]

KC Joyner always writes positive stuff about the Falcons and their players. He gets criticized a lot for it. To me he seems a bit over the top and sounds like a homer. I always hope he's right but I take his articles with a grain of salt.

[falconidae]

So we still would have lost to GB...

Which means the problem is in the offense.

And who, again, runs the offense?

It's sure not this guy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WozwqZrg8OA

Vick led his team to 16 points the week before against the same GB team, if Vick's D had allowed 48 points, he would have lost by 32 points.

And he's never coming back.

[sharky]

He's absolutely right.

[Butudontseeme™]

I guess time will tell. I understand the need and desire for a true impact player at ANY position on def but I think we have several bright spots that could develop into really good players. Grimes, Moore, Weatherspoon, Lofton, Jerry, and Biermann are all still young and developing. It's def not too late to improve. I would still love to sign a premiere DE as long as it didn't kill our financials forever

[revenge]

Vick led his team to 16 points the week before against the same GB team, if Vick's D had allowed 48 points, he would have lost by 32 points.

And he's never coming back.

:lol: :lol:

[NateDogg1215]

we our not one DE away from being elite.......... we our one nickel back from elite!!!!(insert cris owens GB playoff game) :wacko:

[Finally]

I almost won the publisher's clearing house many times.

[egoprime II]

The Steelers have an elite defense and gave up 31.

And yet, no one out there is calling for the Steelers to blow up thier D and start over....

[egoprime II]

So if we were "elite," would we have only given up 35 in the playoffs?

Falcons were number five in the league in points allowed. That, is elite. And keep in mind Atlanta did beat Green Bay during the regular season.

Green Bay was on fire in the playoffs, its that simple. They could do no wrong.

As for Atlanta, it was the O line that dropped the ball in the playoffs, more than anything. No the D did not play well, but they were also on the field way too much. Just like Pittsburgh.

[strat1080]

And yet, no one out there is calling for the Steelers to blow up thier D and start over....

The Steelers didn't get abused the way the Falcons did. If you really look deep into it, the Steelers gave up 21 points off of turnovers. The Steelers turnovers were more costly to the defense than the Falcons were. The turnovers weren't nearly as much of a factor for Green Bay scoring points against Atlanta. Matt Ryan's first turnover led to a Green Bay touchback. The Packers still had to go 80 yards for a TD. While Atlanta turned over the ball 4 times the final two turnovers happened when the game was already pretty much out of reach. The Steelers defense was killed by the 3 turnovers the offense committed. One was a pick six and the other two were around mid-field. So while the turnovers kept Atlanta from staying in the game and keeping up offensively, the turnovers that happened in that game didn't put the defense in a bad spot until the game was already out of reach. The pick six was obviously a killer but the Packers put up 28 offensive points in their first five possessions with no help from Falcons turnovers. Again, that isn't including the pick six. In four of the Packers first five possessions they moved the ball at least 80 yards to score a TD on each drive. That made the score 35-14. The defense wasn't put in a bad situation by turnovers in that game until the game was out of reach.

I must have been asleep but I don't recall the Steelers giving up four consecutive drives of 80 or more yards. An elite defense just doesn't allow that to happen. The Steelers have a much better defense than Atlanta and they know how to get pressure on the QB. They have a suspect secondary but for the most part make up for it with their pass rush. They have probably the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL. The Steelers were getting stops in the Super Bowl. They were forcing rushed throws and forced Green Bay to punt quite a bit. AS we all know so well. Atlanta didn't force Green BAy to punt. How somebody could call that defnese, "almost elite" is beyond. What is almost elite anyway? You either are or you aren't. You can't be almost elite. Other than PPG, the Falcons were mediocre to terrible in every single other defensive category. They were protected by a ball control offense designed to take long methodical drives down the field and one of the best special teams units in the NFL.

[AtlantaFanatic]

So we still would have lost to GB...

Which means the problem is in the offense.

And who, again, runs the offense?

It's sure not this guy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WozwqZrg8OA

http://www.egyptsaidso.com/wp-content/uploader/2008/12/michael-vick.jpg

your right, its this guy.

[GENERALZOD]

The Steelers have an elite defense and gave up 31.

Yep, I agree. A loss is a loss, doesn't matter how many points it's by.

The loss to greenbay was a shock to me as much as anyone else, but the thing is, considering the state the Falcons were in 2008 I would have never dreamed they would be in the position they were last season, or now with their player personel, and they have kept improving every season.

+1 Your right. The good thing is the Falcons will improve from the learning process.

LOL, I know that saying get's old around here, but Mike Smith's comment "It's all a part of the process" is true.

The good news I think is the Falcons are moving out of the losing process and into the winning process where the playoff games go.

GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[egoprime II]

The Steelers didn't get abused the way the Falcons did. If you really look deep into it, the Steelers gave up 21 points off of turnovers. The Steelers turnovers were more costly to the defense than the Falcons were. The turnovers weren't nearly as much of a factor for Green Bay scoring points against Atlanta. Matt Ryan's first turnover led to a Green Bay touchback. The Packers still had to go 80 yards for a TD. While Atlanta turned over the ball 4 times the final two turnovers happened when the game was already pretty much out of reach. The Steelers defense was killed by the 3 turnovers the offense committed. One was a pick six and the other two were around mid-field. So while the turnovers kept Atlanta from staying in the game and keeping up offensively, the turnovers that happened in that game didn't put the defense in a bad spot until the game was already out of reach. The pick six was obviously a killer but the Packers put up 28 offensive points in their first five possessions with no help from Falcons turnovers. Again, that isn't including the pick six. In four of the Packers first five possessions they moved the ball at least 80 yards to score a TD on each drive. That made the score 35-14. The defense wasn't put in a bad situation by turnovers in that game until the game was out of reach.

I must have been asleep but I don't recall the Steelers giving up four consecutive drives of 80 or more yards. An elite defense just doesn't allow that to happen. The Steelers have a much better defense than Atlanta and they know how to get pressure on the QB. They have a suspect secondary but for the most part make up for it with their pass rush. They have probably the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL. The Steelers were getting stops in the Super Bowl. They were forcing rushed throws and forced Green Bay to punt quite a bit. AS we all know so well. Atlanta didn't force Green BAy to punt. How somebody could call that defnese, "almost elite" is beyond. What is almost elite anyway? You either are or you aren't. You can't be almost elite. Other than PPG, the Falcons were mediocre to terrible in every single other defensive category. They were protected by a ball control offense designed to take long methodical drives down the field and one of the best special teams units in the NFL.

That is a great analysis, thanks for sharing that with us.

Our D did well in PPG and turnovers, and we did have a lot of young guys out there on the field. Hopefully we can find some improvement there. I do think TD has some moves up his sleeve. We need a productive DE, and a new starting OLB. But other than those two spots, where would we need a new starter? If we sign Grimes our CB's are set, so is SS FS MLB one OLB spot both DT's and one DE. Not a lot of room for new personnel IMHO.

[falconsd56]

The Steelers didn't get abused the way the Falcons did. If you really look deep into it, the Steelers gave up 21 points off of turnovers. The Steelers turnovers were more costly to the defense than the Falcons were. The turnovers weren't nearly as much of a factor for Green Bay scoring points against Atlanta. Matt Ryan's first turnover led to a Green Bay touchback. The Packers still had to go 80 yards for a TD. While Atlanta turned over the ball 4 times the final two turnovers happened when the game was already pretty much out of reach. The Steelers defense was killed by the 3 turnovers the offense committed. One was a pick six and the other two were around mid-field. So while the turnovers kept Atlanta from staying in the game and keeping up offensively, the turnovers that happened in that game didn't put the defense in a bad spot until the game was already out of reach. The pick six was obviously a killer but the Packers put up 28 offensive points in their first five possessions with no help from Falcons turnovers. Again, that isn't including the pick six. In four of the Packers first five possessions they moved the ball at least 80 yards to score a TD on each drive. That made the score 35-14. The defense wasn't put in a bad situation by turnovers in that game until the game was out of reach.

I must have been asleep but I don't recall the Steelers giving up four consecutive drives of 80 or more yards. An elite defense just doesn't allow that to happen. The Steelers have a much better defense than Atlanta and they know how to get pressure on the QB. They have a suspect secondary but for the most part make up for it with their pass rush. They have probably the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL. The Steelers were getting stops in the Super Bowl. They were forcing rushed throws and forced Green Bay to punt quite a bit. AS we all know so well. Atlanta didn't force Green BAy to punt. How somebody could call that defnese, "almost elite" is beyond. What is almost elite anyway? You either are or you aren't. You can't be almost elite. Other than PPG, the Falcons were mediocre to terrible in every single other defensive category. They were protected by a ball control offense designed to take long methodical drives down the field and one of the best special teams units in the NFL.

Dude that is ridicules.

turn overs are turn overs period.

There is no difference in a d giving up a TD after he O had a TO vs the O going 3 and out.

Its not like the packers got the ball on the one yard line . The packers still had to line up and move the ball and the Steelers could not stop them.

Stop trying to make 2 things that are nearly identical seem different because they are not.

The steelers got every bit as abused as the falcons did. Had the packers wrs not dropped at least 2 WIDE open passes the packers could have had at least 14 more points and probably another 75 or even 100 yards or more.

which would have given the pack over 400 yards of offense and 45 points. The packers are the only thing that stopped the packers from those numbers not the steelers.

Then again you did try to make the silly argument that yards per play was a better indication on a defense then points allowed are so..........

[falconsd56]

So we still would have lost to GB...

Which means the problem is in the offense.

And who, again, runs the offense?

It's sure not this guy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WozwqZrg8OA

you mean the same guy who lost to the packers the week before?

Does it hurt to be so stupid or are you one of the freaks that enjoy being hurt?

[falconsd56]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPLbiROT220

for visual evidence of what I was talking about.

19 seconds in WIDE OPEN drop by the packers Nelson.that would have been another 50 yards easy.

then 4 minutes and 11 seconds in

that would have been another 70 yards or so right there and another TD

So Rogers could have had 430 yards passing and 4 tds ......so tell me again any better then the falcons?

Its not both had terrible games while Rogers was **** near perfect.

[TeamPlayer1]

When are these less than the bell curve vick fans going to realize he will never wear a Falcons uniform again? Sheesh!

[Magic Man]

So if we were "elite," would we have only given up 35 in the playoffs?

Are there really playoffs for trolls? Really? How is that scored, and who was on your team, and why did you guys give up 35 points? You can play like a Falcon fan, but you're not and we all know it. And he's never coming back.