With the likely signing of a DE when free agency begins

[The Dirty Bird]

Our current DL roster looks like this, not including John Abraham: Kroy Biermann, Chauncey Davis, Jamaal Anderson, Cliff Matthews, Lawrence Sidbury, Emmanuel Stephens.

If we add a DE (presumably Ray Edwards), then the apparent odd man out is Stephens considering Biermann and Davis play key roles as rotational players and we just drafted Cliff Matthews. However, I think we should use some of our deeper talent in a trade to get back some draft picks in next year's draft. I believe we drafted Cliff Matthews because our coaching staff are losing a lot of hope with Sidbury, and we are clearly going after a DE in free agency because Anderson has been a huge disappointment since he was drafted.

While neither player may not be worth a lot in a trade in general, some teams will value them a little higher than most because they are still talented players, are young, and because they could fill major needs for them. One team in particular that I believe makes total sense to work out a trade with would be the New York Jets.

The Jets have 2 major needs on defense: DE and OLB. Yes, they just drafted Wilkerson in the 1st round but Shaun Ellis is a free agent and they still need another DE for now and the next several years. I've always maintained, and many agree, that Anderson's natural position is 3-4 DE. His size 6'6, 290 lbs certainly supports this, as well as his stellar run D -- 3-4 DEs are supposed to hold the point of attack to free up the LBs and aren't going to be used as pass rushers. I think the Jets would jump at the opportunity to add a young stout DE in Anderson who could form a nice trio with Muhammed Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis for the Jets upfront. Lawrence Sidbury is a low-risk, high-reward gamble for the Jets -- he has great natural talent and a wondrous spin move and good speed. He is not strong enough to battle OTs on the line of scrimmage, but as a blitzing 3-4 OLB in space Sidbury could actually end up being something. I don't think he'll ever be a double digit sack guy, but the Jets could use someone with a 6-8 sack ceiling a year...and you never know what Rex Ryan can get out of a guy. He turned Bart Scott from practice squad fodder to a Pro Bowl LB.

So what would it cost the Jets to grab both of these players? I would say a 3rd round pick and we would also give our 6th, and with their draft pick being conditional up until a 1st rounder. If one of them starts more than half of the games and hits certain statistic incentives, the pick moves up to a 2nd rounder. Since neither player is going to have a place going forward with the team, getting a 4th round pick straight up would be worth our time. An extra 4th rounder in this year's draft could have gotten us: Jordan Cameron, TE; Sam Acho, DE; Luke Stocker, TE; Edmund Gates, WR; Taiwan Jones, RB; Davon House, CB; Robert Sands, S; D.J. Williams, TE; etc.

Another team that this trade works for is the New England Patriots, who I think would be totally fine with giving up a 3rd or 4th next year since they have two 1sts and two 2nds and also have serious needs at DE and OLB. We may also be able to get a good young player back in exchange for a lesser draft pick. I may actually like this scenario better, since we could pry away a guy like Gary Guyton who is a perfect fit for our defense. The Pats have Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes set inside at ILB for the next decade so Guyton no longer has a role with the team. Guyton is 6'3, 245 lbs, has very good speed and can cover -- he just isn't made for the inside of a 3-4 where he needs to bang with OL. Nicholas is a free agent and at best he'll be back for one season as an RFA imo, and Guyton could be a perfect replacement. Guyton is only 25, and he's a Georgia Tech alum to boot. Last season he started 8 games and had 3 sacks, 7 passes defended and 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 TD. The year before they drafted Spikes he started every game out of necessity and had 85 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 4 passes defended. The other position we could get from the Pats is CB. They have a clear #1 in McCourty and a #2 in Bodden. They just drafted Ras-I Bowling who can become their #2 and at least immediately be the nickelback. After that they have Darius Butler, Kyle Arrington, and Jonathan Wilhite. I think we could get back Darius Butler, a 2009 2nd round pick, who could end up being a very good nickelback for us. They are deep at CB and we are deep at DE (after signing Edwards) so we trade from our strengths to help each other out. Dream scenario = we actually give draft picks in addition and get back Rob Gronkowski. This would never happen, but he was my favorite TE prospect coming out of college in years and already looks like he is going to become one of the game's best for the duration of his career. I'd love to see him with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones...he's also a great blocker.

I know this is all speculation but without free agency in this post-draft NFL lockout world there is literally nothing going on so I figured I'd start up a thread to people something to read, to think, and to get creative.

So my two teams that I propose to work out a trade with are the Jets and the Pats for the aforementioned reasons. Also, if both teams know we are trying to make a deal with the other they may get more aggressive in their offers to prevent the other from getting better. There is a clear 3rd team to me that we could strike a deal with, and I'll see if anyone proposes it.

Cheers,

TDB

[The Dirty Bird]

one bump in case people missed it since I wrote it during insomnia time at 4 am.

[poolerspirit]

How 'bout we just give Jamal to the Jets for a 4th or 5th round pick... I'd like to hang on to El Sid if we can... and I like the idea of getting New England to help us build some hype for acquiring him, though I don't think we could convince them to actually trade us Gary Guyton for him.

[The Dirty Bird]

What better way to use talented players on our roster that aren't part of our future plans than to get draft picks to use for the future. Next offseason we will not have a 1st or 2nd round pick, so getting a 4th or any draft pick would be helpful.

[The Dirty Bird]

How 'bout we just give Jamal to the Jets for a 4th or 5th round pick... I'd like to hang on to El Sid if we can... and I like the idea of getting New England to help us build some hype for acquiring him, though I don't think we could convince them to actually trade us Gary Guyton for him.

Getting Gary Guyton would be tougher than just getting a pick, but at this point Guyton is just a depth player for them and special teamer. The Pats biggest need right now is at OLB and they didn't address it this offseason. Adding Sidbury to compete with Cunningham and Ninkovich will only help them get a productive outside pass rusher, and adding Anderson to replace Seymour/rotate in at DE will certainly help more than having a 2nd string LB stick around like Guyton. Guyton's best fit is in a 4-3 anyway.

In all likelihood we could just use the Pats to leverage the Jets into making a deal, but both teams could use both players and a deal could/should be made with either team. Sidbury has not progressed as hoped in the 4-3, and we should move him while his potential still equates to some trade value -- we just drafted Cliff Matthews and we are going to sign a DE. There isn't going to be room for Sidbury very soon.

[delaigle]

Why trade with the Falcons?

They are going to cut C. Davis and/or J Anderson at the end of camp. Just wait until then and sign the one (or Both) that is cut, then you get them for not losses to your team or no loss of draft picks.

Edited May 29, 2011 by delaigle

[takeitdown]

Why trade with the Falcons?

They are going to cut C. Davis and/or J Anderson at the end of camp. Just wait until then and sign the one (or Both) that is cut, then you get them for not losses to your team or no loss of draft picks.

That's why you can only trade if 2 or more teams are interested. You have to make it so one is willing to give up a pick to not compete for that player on an open market with the 2 or 3 other teams who want him.

[The Dirty Bird]

Why trade with the Falcons?

They are going to cut C. Davis and/or J Anderson at the end of camp. Just wait until then and sign the one (or Both) that is cut, then you get them for not losses to your team or no loss of draft picks.

I don't think we will cut either player, which is why we would trade them. Also, that's why it would be a package deal with Sidbury, so a trade would have to be made to get the players. Both the Jets and Pats are in a position to win the SB now, so trading a midround draft pick for two players who can contribute this season makes sense for both teams.

That's why you can only trade if 2 or more teams are interested. You have to make it so one is willing to give up a pick to not compete for that player on an open market with the 2 or 3 other teams who want him.

This would be the ideal -- we have two players that could emerge as good contributors in a 3-4 defense. Two teams with identical needs at DE and OLB just so happen to be hated division rivals -- the Jets and Pats -- so a small bidding war could facilitate a trade. TD also has connections in the Pats front office and a mutual trade could be worked out presumably (our guys for some of theirs, such as Gary Guyton or Darius Butler or a RB now that they drafted two RBs, or a mid round pick).

[delaigle]

That's why you can only trade if 2 or more teams are interested. You have to make it so one is willing to give up a pick to not compete for that player on an open market with the 2 or 3 other teams who want him.

Do you really think there are several teams out there that will get into a bidding war for J. Anderson or for C. Davis?

[takeitdown]

Do you really think there are several teams out there that will get into a bidding war for J. Anderson or for C. Davis?

Nope. I was just saying that is the reason teams trade for guys who are going to get cut anyway.

I've never been able to assess the value of JA for a 3-4 team. It's quite low for a 4-3, I've always been curious if it's not a good bit higher for a 3-4, but I wouldn't count on much compensation. A trade of players each team isn't wed to is the most likely.

[The Dirty Bird]

Do you really think there are several teams out there that will get into a bidding war for J. Anderson or for C. Davis?

Don't think of a bidding war meaning big compensation, and you're thinking of the wrong duo. I think we need to keep Chauncey in our rotation, but the duo would be Anderson and Sidbury -- two young players who still have some potential in a different scheme. I think multiple teams would have interest in acquiring this duo for a small price, and one team should be more inclined to pull the trigger if multiple teams have interest -- especially within their own division.

Nope. I was just saying that is the reason teams trade for guys who are going to get cut anyway.

I've never been able to assess the value of JA for a 3-4 team. It's quite low for a 4-3, I've always been curious if it's not a good bit higher for a 3-4, but I wouldn't count on much compensation. A trade of players each team isn't wed to is the most likely.

I agree, which is why getting back a Gary Guyton or Darius Butler would make sense. But I also think these teams would be willing to gamble on these guys for a mid round draft pick. When you are a SB contending team and have a serious need at some positions but are in position to win now, you're likely willing to move a future mid round pick for guys with some immediate upside.

Teams make conditional draft pick trades all the time -- we moved Chris Houston to Detroit under this idea. They badly needed a CB and took a worthwhile gamble with a low end draft pick. Based on that, trading two players to a superior team who will pick in the back of a round anyway, we should be able to squeeze a 4th round conditional pick.