Why Ray Edwrds Will Kill it in ATL

[THE ICEMAN]

Pass Rushing Productivity

So who do you think is the most productive pass rusher in the NFL on a per snap basis? Is it the master of the spin move, Dwight Freeney? Hard hitting outside linebacker James Harrison? Or maybe it was NFL sack leader DeMarcus Ware? Well they all featured near the top, but you’d be wrong if you answered any of them.

Now, if you had answered “Tamba Hali”, then you would have been the winner of this fun, but sadly prize-less contest. Yes indeed, the Kansas City Chief outside linebacker (who didn’t even make the Pro Bowl) tops our Pass Rushing Productivity chart. Hali follows in the footsteps of last year’s leader Freeney, and 2008’s top dog John Abraham.

For those not yet clued in to what Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) is, it’s the result of a simple study investigating how much pressure a pass rusher gets, and how many snaps it takes him to get it. In a bit more detail here’s our classic explanation:

First, we total what we refer to as “QB Disruption Points,” which values sacks over hits and pressures:

QB Disruption Points = Sacks + Hits (0.75) + Pressures (0.75)

We arrived at that balance after a general audit of our grades and tracking over the past three seasons, and found that hits and pressures represent about 75 percent of the value of sacks.

Then, to arrive at a score that measures productivity per rush, its simple:

Pass-Rushing Productivity = QB Disruptions Points / Number of Pass Rushes x 100.

Easy enough? So back to telling you what makes Tamba Hali so special. For a start, he had more QB disruption points than any other (with 75.7). Even though he had ample rushing opportunities (524 snaps), his 14.41 PRP Rating was a world away from all others. Perhaps more of a surprise would be who finished second overall, and atop our defensive end rankings. Anybody out there think Charles Johnson of the Carolina Panthers would have such a good season? He ended the season with a PRP of 13.25 and was often the lone bright spot in a dismal season for the Panthers. That’s a free agent a lot of teams will want to get their hand on.

Also in the top five, we have a long standing favorite of the PRP system, John Abraham. He finished 4th overall (behind Hali, Johnson, and Ray Edwards) in a season where many said he reclaimed his burst as a pass rusher. We’re not often likely to say we told you so, but last year Abraham was still 7th here, even when his sack numbers fell off. He’s an excellent example of why you can’t quickly write players off simply because they are bringing down the quarterback less often; the pressure can still be there.

Top 10 Overall

Name------------------Team-----Position------Pass Rushes----------PRP

1.Tamba Hali----------KC--------3-4OLB-------------524----------------14.41

2.Charles Johnson-CAR-------4-3 DE--------------481----------------13.25

3.Ray Edwards--------MIN-------4-3 DE-------------416----------------12.98

4.John Abraham-----ATL-------4-3 DE--------------363----------------12.67

5.Lamarr Woodley--PIT-------3-4 OLB-------------427----------------12.65

6.DeMarcus Ware--DAL-------3-4 OLB------------509----------------12.38

7.Manny Lawson----SF--------3-4 OLB-------------218----------------12.04

8.Cameron Wake---MIA-------3-4 OLB------------445----------------12.02

9.Trent Cole-----------PHI-------4-3 DE--------------500----------------11.90

10.Jason Babin------TEN-------4-3 DE-------------433----------------11.89

They actually rate Ray Edwards a head of Charles Johnson in there top Free Agent DE/OLB

I'll list the top 5

1. Ray Edwards, Minnesota Vikings

Age as of September 1st 2011: 26

2010 Grade: +31.2

Key Stat: In three years has got to the QB (hit or sacked) 65 times

Behind The Numbers: Often overlooked because of the players he shares a defensive line with, Edwards has nonetheless been an extremely consistent performer. Whether it be in 2008 when he ably supported Jared Allen or 2009 when he disrupted the QB more, or this past season where for the first time he finished higher than Allen in our rankings. Edwards has always delivered. You don’t finish in the top ten of our DE rankings two years on the trot otherwise.

________________

2. Charles Johnson, Carolina Panthers

Age as of September 1st 2011: 25

2010 Grade: +43.8

Key Stat: In 2010 had more defensive stops (48) and QB disruptions (81) than any other DE.

Behind The Numbers: At the end of the 2008 season, we felt Johnson warranted more playing time. He picked up plenty of pressure and looked more than capable of an increased workload on the 520 snaps he saw. While injury played a part, it wasn’t to be for Johnson the following year as he only got on the field for 427 snaps, though he still played well enough to finish in our top twenty defensive ends. Fast forward to this season, where Johnson had a phenomenal year that went largely ignored in Carolina, although not by us as he finished 2nd in our DE rankings. The only thing that has ever held the 2007 third-round pick back has been playing time, and whichever team he ends up playing for is going to get a guy who has always achieved.

________________

3. Jason Babin, Tennessee Titans

Age as of September 1st 2011: 31

2010 Grade: +25.1

Key Stat: In 2010 had 24 more total QB pressures than he had combined in 2008 and 2009.

Behind The Numbers: Over the past few seasons Babin has bounced around the league, looking nothing more than a situational rusher. In 2009 he didn’t even look like that as he saw the field for only 243 snaps. Then he came to Tennessee and they figured out how to get the best of him, as he responded with a season that saw him ranked in our top ten defensive ends overall. He didn’t help himself by giving up twelve penalties, but Babin finally became the player scouts thought he would be.

________________

4. Cliff Avril, Detroit Lions

Age as of September 1st 2011: 26

2010 Grade: +21.8

Key Stat: Had games in 2010 where he produced five or more QB sacks, hits or pressures combined

Behind The Numbers: While Detroit were going 0-16 there were some bright spots in their season, and Avril was one of them; he picked up five sacks as a rookie. His sophomore year was meant to be the springboard to bigger and better things, but it never quite came together and he notched a rather average 27 QB disruptions on the year. 2010, though, was the year for Avril, who flourished next to Ndamukong Suh and finished 7th in our pass rushing DE ratings. Avril is far from perfect, and you imagine any CBA will see him a restricted free agent. But if it doesn’t, he’ll be a heck of a pickup.

________________

5. Manny Lawson, San Francisco 49ers

Age as of September 1st 2011: 27

2010 Grade: +12.9

Key Stat: Broke up more passes than any other 3-4 OLB.

Behind The Numbers: If you’re looking for a guy with upside, and who won’t break the bank, then why look further than Lawson? His rather pedestrian sack numbers don’t do him justice, considering he gets more pressure on a per-play basis than guys like Clay Matthews, James Harrison and Cameron Wake. It’s just that the 49ers opted to have him in a rotation which meant he only rushed the passer 218 times. Perhaps the 49ers were disappointed in him following his 2008 and 2009 season where he struggled to consistently get pressure on the QB. But in Year 5 he finally seemed to get it, and with an overload of teams running the 3-4 a number of them would do well to find a solid starter like Lawson.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

And on a player that the Falcons have they also ranked Kroy Biermann 19th and he only had 2 sacks but that didn't show how much he was really in the back field and if he duplicates that again he could have a big year but it would also be wise I think to still sign Ray Edwards as John Abraham is 33 plus that would give the Falcons Kroy Biermann to fall back on if either of those guys were to get injured

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

If you want to read any of the 3 articles then here's the links

DE/OLB Free Agents - http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/02/24/ranking-the-free-agents-4-3-defensive-ends3-4-outside-linebackers/

Secret SuperStar Kroy Biermann- http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/04/12/secret-superstar-kroy-biermann-atlanta-falcons/

Pass Rushing Productivity- http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/03/16/pass-rushing-productivity-3/

[g-dawg]

nice article find - +1 for digging this out and sharing w/ us!!!

[freebird310]

Pass Rushing Productivity

So who do you think is the most productive pass rusher in the NFL on a per snap basis? Is it the master of the spin move, Dwight Freeney? Hard hitting outside linebacker James Harrison? Or maybe it was NFL sack leader DeMarcus Ware? Well they all featured near the top, but you’d be wrong if you answered any of them.

Now, if you had answered “Tamba Hali”, then you would have been the winner of this fun, but sadly prize-less contest. Yes indeed, the Kansas City Chief outside linebacker (who didn’t even make the Pro Bowl) tops our Pass Rushing Productivity chart. Hali follows in the footsteps of last year’s leader Freeney, and 2008’s top dog John Abraham.

For those not yet clued in to what Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) is, it’s the result of a simple study investigating how much pressure a pass rusher gets, and how many snaps it takes him to get it. In a bit more detail here’s our classic explanation:

First, we total what we refer to as “QB Disruption Points,” which values sacks over hits and pressures:

QB Disruption Points = Sacks + Hits (0.75) + Pressures (0.75)

We arrived at that balance after a general audit of our grades and tracking over the past three seasons, and found that hits and pressures represent about 75 percent of the value of sacks.

Then, to arrive at a score that measures productivity per rush, its simple:

Pass-Rushing Productivity = QB Disruptions Points / Number of Pass Rushes x 100.

Easy enough? So back to telling you what makes Tamba Hali so special. For a start, he had more QB disruption points than any other (with 75.7). Even though he had ample rushing opportunities (524 snaps), his 14.41 PRP Rating was a world away from all others. Perhaps more of a surprise would be who finished second overall, and atop our defensive end rankings. Anybody out there think Charles Johnson of the Carolina Panthers would have such a good season? He ended the season with a PRP of 13.25 and was often the lone bright spot in a dismal season for the Panthers. That’s a free agent a lot of teams will want to get their hand on.

Also in the top five, we have a long standing favorite of the PRP system, John Abraham. He finished 4th overall (behind Hali, Johnson, and Ray Edwards) in a season where many said he reclaimed his burst as a pass rusher. We’re not often likely to say we told you so, but last year Abraham was still 7th here, even when his sack numbers fell off. He’s an excellent example of why you can’t quickly write players off simply because they are bringing down the quarterback less often; the pressure can still be there.

Top 10 Overall

Name------------------Team-----Position------Pass Rushes----------PRP

1.Tamba Hali----------KC--------3-4OLB-------------524----------------14.41

2.Charles Johnson-CAR-------4-3 DE--------------481----------------13.25

3.Ray Edwards--------MIN-------4-3 DE-------------416----------------12.98

4.John Abraham-----ATL-------4-3 DE--------------363----------------12.67

5.Lamarr Woodley--PIT-------3-4 OLB-------------427----------------12.65

6.DeMarcus Ware--DAL-------3-4 OLB------------509----------------12.38

7.Manny Lawson----SF--------3-4 OLB-------------218----------------12.04

8.Cameron Wake---MIA-------3-4 OLB------------445----------------12.02

9.Trent Cole-----------PHI-------4-3 DE--------------500----------------11.90

10.Jason Babin------TEN-------4-3 DE-------------433----------------11.89

They actually rate Ray Edwards a head of Charles Johnson in there top Free Agent DE/OLB

I'll list the top 5

1. Ray Edwards, Minnesota Vikings

Age as of September 1st 2011: 26

2010 Grade: +31.2

Key Stat: In three years has got to the QB (hit or sacked) 65 times

Behind The Numbers: Often overlooked because of the players he shares a defensive line with, Edwards has nonetheless been an extremely consistent performer. Whether it be in 2008 when he ably supported Jared Allen or 2009 when he disrupted the QB more, or this past season where for the first time he finished higher than Allen in our rankings. Edwards has always delivered. You don’t finish in the top ten of our DE rankings two years on the trot otherwise.

________________

2. Charles Johnson, Carolina Panthers

Age as of September 1st 2011: 25

2010 Grade: +43.8

Key Stat: In 2010 had more defensive stops (48) and QB disruptions (81) than any other DE.

Behind The Numbers: At the end of the 2008 season, we felt Johnson warranted more playing time. He picked up plenty of pressure and looked more than capable of an increased workload on the 520 snaps he saw. While injury played a part, it wasn’t to be for Johnson the following year as he only got on the field for 427 snaps, though he still played well enough to finish in our top twenty defensive ends. Fast forward to this season, where Johnson had a phenomenal year that went largely ignored in Carolina, although not by us as he finished 2nd in our DE rankings. The only thing that has ever held the 2007 third-round pick back has been playing time, and whichever team he ends up playing for is going to get a guy who has always achieved.

________________

3. Jason Babin, Tennessee Titans

Age as of September 1st 2011: 31

2010 Grade: +25.1

Key Stat: In 2010 had 24 more total QB pressures than he had combined in 2008 and 2009.

Behind The Numbers: Over the past few seasons Babin has bounced around the league, looking nothing more than a situational rusher. In 2009 he didn’t even look like that as he saw the field for only 243 snaps. Then he came to Tennessee and they figured out how to get the best of him, as he responded with a season that saw him ranked in our top ten defensive ends overall. He didn’t help himself by giving up twelve penalties, but Babin finally became the player scouts thought he would be.

________________

4. Cliff Avril, Detroit Lions

Age as of September 1st 2011: 26

2010 Grade: +21.8

Key Stat: Had games in 2010 where he produced five or more QB sacks, hits or pressures combined

Behind The Numbers: While Detroit were going 0-16 there were some bright spots in their season, and Avril was one of them; he picked up five sacks as a rookie. His sophomore year was meant to be the springboard to bigger and better things, but it never quite came together and he notched a rather average 27 QB disruptions on the year. 2010, though, was the year for Avril, who flourished next to Ndamukong Suh and finished 7th in our pass rushing DE ratings. Avril is far from perfect, and you imagine any CBA will see him a restricted free agent. But if it doesn’t, he’ll be a heck of a pickup.

________________

5. Manny Lawson, San Francisco 49ers

Age as of September 1st 2011: 27

2010 Grade: +12.9

Key Stat: Broke up more passes than any other 3-4 OLB.

Behind The Numbers: If you’re looking for a guy with upside, and who won’t break the bank, then why look further than Lawson? His rather pedestrian sack numbers don’t do him justice, considering he gets more pressure on a per-play basis than guys like Clay Matthews, James Harrison and Cameron Wake. It’s just that the 49ers opted to have him in a rotation which meant he only rushed the passer 218 times. Perhaps the 49ers were disappointed in him following his 2008 and 2009 season where he struggled to consistently get pressure on the QB. But in Year 5 he finally seemed to get it, and with an overload of teams running the 3-4 a number of them would do well to find a solid starter like Lawson.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

And on a player that the Falcons have they also ranked Kroy Biermann 19th and he only had 2 sacks but that didn't show how much he was really in the back field and if he duplicates that again he could have a big year but it would also be wise I think to still sign Ray Edwards as John Abraham is 33 plus that would give the Falcons Kroy Biermann to fall back on if either of those guys were to get injured

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

If you want to read any of the 3 articles then here's the links

DE/OLB Free Agents - http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/02/24/ranking-the-free-agents-4-3-defensive-ends3-4-outside-linebackers/

Secret SuperStar Kroy Biermann- http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/04/12/secret-superstar-kroy-biermann-atlanta-falcons/

Pass Rushing Productivity- http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/03/16/pass-rushing-productivity-3/

Great info ......I would really love to get him ...

[chrislee1982]

Good read... so lets go get Ray... Out of those list Ray did have the best d-line to help him out though..

[Theyhateme : )]

This guy is "young" and extremely distruptive!

[THE ICEMAN]

When you think about it he's sacked or hit the QB 65 times over 3 season thats an all fully big number and I wounder how he didn't end up with a double digits sack season

[Theyhateme : )]

When you think about it he's sacked or hit the QB 65 times over 3 season thats an all fully big number and I wounder how he didn't end up with a double digits sack season

QBs probably had some EXTRA motivation to get away. Dude is 6'5 or so.

[g-dawg]

I still prefer Charles Johnson because I think he has the "non-stop" motor that our Defensive coaches crave. But I would be happy w/ Ray Edwards.

[Theyhateme : )]

I still prefer Charles Johnson because I think he has the "non-stop" motor that our Defensive coaches crave. But I would be happy w/ Ray Edwards.

What's Johnson's age? Nevermind...I see it...he's a GA boi.

[falconsfan84]

What's Johnson's age? Nevermind...I see it...he's a GA boi.

Johnson is only 24.

[cnasty]

A little off topic here, but can you imagine the DL of the Lions if they were to retain Avril AND go and get one of these guys? Holy ******* **** *** whore. That would be sick

[RHEC]

He may kill it but hes not worthy of a 1st or 2nd rounder.

[g-dawg]

What's Johnson's age? Nevermind...I see it...he's a GA boi.

you have no idea how little it means to me on Falcons signing/drafting Georgia players. If I thought Ray Edwards was better than Charles Johnson, then I would want Ray Edwards over CJ.

I would be fine w/ Ray Edwards - just prefer CJ - think he's a better player.

[g-dawg]

He may kill it but hes not worthy of a 1st or 2nd rounder.

agree w/ that - I think the assumption is that we would only grab Ray-Ray if he ends up being an Unrestricted Free Agent.

[Theyhateme : )]

you have no idea how little it means to me on Falcons signing/drafting Georgia players. If I thought Ray Edwards was better than Charles Johnson, then I would want Ray Edwards over CJ.

I would be fine w/ Ray Edwards - just prefer CJ - think he's a better player.

I never thought about what it meant to YOU...it was a moment of clarity for ME. I was totally unaware of who he was or where he played. I read an article that said our F.O. preferences Edwards and for Johnson and the other FA DE (whose name escapes me). Did you think that I was accusing you of being a "homer?" I wasn't.

[g-dawg]

I never thought about what it meant to YOU...it was a moment of clarity for ME. I was totally unaware of who he was or where he played. I read an article that said our F.O. preferences Edwards and for Johnson and the other FA DE (whose name escapes me). Did you think that I was accusing you of being a "homer?" I wasn't.

yep, that is what I thought...sorry if that was not your intention - no worries even if you had meant it....

both Charles Johnson and Ray Edwards are young - 24 and 26 respectively I believe.

Ray Edwards has more prototypical size for the position and he has started longer than CJ.

Charles Johnson has done more w/ less in 2010 (quick, name another starter on the Panther D-Line?)

Both would be good players for Falcons - just think Johnson would be better - again, I would be happy with either guy.

[dirtybird1989]

Good read... so lets go get Ray... Out of those list Ray did have the best d-line to help him out though..

Yea but we have Abraham in the top 5 also, maybe with both we could get a good pass rush

[Theyhateme : )]

yep, that is what I thought...sorry if that was not your intention - no worries even if you had meant it....

both Charles Johnson and Ray Edwards are young - 24 and 26 respectively I believe.

Ray Edwards has more prototypical size for the position and he has started longer than CJ.

Charles Johnson has done more w/ less in 2010 (quick, name another starter on the Panther D-Line?)

Both would be good players for Falcons - just think Johnson would be better - again, I would be happy with either guy.

Cool...

[THE ICEMAN]

I think Ray Edwards is the better player right now because of his run D but does lack the Motor that Johnson has but from just a Pass Rusher stand point then I would get Charles Johnson and ya he was a Georgia Bulldog and grew up in Georgia so if he becomes a Free Agent then I think the Falcons would have a match made in Heaven but the only thing I worry about is he only dominated for one year were as Ray Edwards has gotten it done the last two years and killed it in the Playoffs in 2009 with 4 sacks and two Forced Fumbles so his line for 2009 was 12.5 sacks so the double digits sacks are there and its not like like the Falcon don't have good guys playing next to him with Abraham and Babs maybe not Allen and Williams but not far from it same with Johnson

And has anyone read the thing on Kroy Biearmann he had a better year than I thought and make me feel a little better if we don't get neither one of those guy because of the Lockout thing

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/04/12/secret-superstar-kroy-biermann-atlanta-falcons/

[CraigSmackDaddy]

I'm all for adding Ray to our squad and I'd be completely fine giving up a 2nd rounder for him. Not necessarily to replace Biermann but to add another capable DE to our d-line, mainly b/c Abe is getting up there in age.