With All The Weapons We Have How Should We Distribute The Ball?

[FalconFanSince1970]

Last year we led the league with an average of 69 offensive snaps per game. Most of the top 10 offenses were in the 62-68 snaps per game range. Green Bay was ranked 20th with 63 snaps per game.

For the sake of this discussion let's assume we will average 69 snaps per game again, which by the way could be a challenge if we change our identity from run first to pass happier like most message boarders hope for. The schedule looks a little more daunting too. Very 2009 like.

Here is a breakdown of the snap distribution from 2010. It includes rushes and passes. A few of these are from our QBs, on scrambles and boots, which you have to account for. Here you go:

2010 SNAP DISTRIBUTION

Turner - 354 snaps (33.1%)

Roddy - 180 snaps (16.9%)

Snelling - 138 snaps (12.9%)

TonyG - 111 snaps (10.4%)

Jenk Man - 73 snaps (6.8%)

HD - 54 snaps (5.1%)

Ryan - 46 snaps (4.3%)

Ovie - 31 snaps (2.9%)

Fin - 31 snaps (2.9%)

Peele - 15 snaps (1.4%)

Gartrell - 14 snaps (1.3%)

Palmer - 8 snaps (0.7%)

Weems - 6 snaps (0.6%)

Wildwood - 5 snaps (0.5%)

Redman - 1 snap (0.1%)

Antone - 1 snap (0.1%)

List the 16 players you think will get snaps in 2011 along with the number of snaps per player you would like to see. Keep in mind we added JJ and Quizz to the roster. There is also a chance that Snelling, Weems, Meier and Wildwood could come back.

Don't forget that Ryan is in the top 10 in terms of 30+ catch receivers with four (Roddy, TonyG, Jenkins and Snelling), but he needs to add another 30+ catch receiver to get to the top 5. He needs to add two more 30+ catch receivers to get to the elite three, and four to equal Brees at the top.

For the receivers (WRs, TEs, RBs and FBs), please show snaps, not completions. Remember a receiver will only catch 60-65% of his targets. There are no right or wrong answers. Just message boarder philosophies, recommendations and opinions. Have fun.

[raysnill1]

oh yeah I'm camping out in this one:

Edited May 4, 2011 by raysnill1

[TdotFalcon]

what a great problem to have.

[freebird310]

Take what the defense gives us. With so many weapons the defense can't possibly cover all of our weapons.

If the defense load the box, pass.

If the defense drops back, run.

If the defense double covers Roddy, throw to J Jones and T Gonzalez.

If the defense has a small but fast defensive front, have Turner run them over.

If the defense has a large but slow defensive front, run Jacquizz.

I think depending on match-ups any of our weapons could end up having huge games or they could be decoys if the defense focuses too much on that particular weapon.

Yep .......exactly , great post.... now it is up to Mularkey to get creative . we have the potential to be the hardest team in the league to defend ....

[HASHBROWN3]

Yep .......exactly , great post.... now it is up to Mularkey to get creative . we have the potential to be the hardest team in the league to defend ....

I heard Sean Payton and Raheem Morris assumed the fetal position after round 5 was complete. They met at an undisclosed location to hold each other... :P

[pzummo]

I say we stay in a 3 WR set all game and distribute to whomever has the best matchup. Ryan, Turner, Roddy, Gonzalez, Jones, and Jenkins with our 5 OL. Turner would eat up a Nickel defense with Gonzo and Jenkins sealing the edges. And on passing plays, one of these guys will be in man coverage. Jenkins better chew up and spit out any team's Nickel CB!

On paper, this offense looks lethal!

[freebird310]

I heard Sean Payton and Raheem Morris assumed the fetal position after round 5 was complete. They met at an undisclosed location to hold each other... :P

[tophnjesus]

I say we stay in a 3 WR set all game and distribute to whomever has the best matchup. Ryan, Turner, Roddy, Gonzalez, Jones, and Jenkins with our 5 OL. Turner would eat up a Nickel defense with Gonzo and Jenkins sealing the edges. And on passing plays, one of these guys will be in man coverage. Jenkins better chew up and spit out any team's Nickel CB!

On paper, this offense looks lethal!

To me, and this is just my opinion, we have some similarities as the Colts do on offense. . .being that explosive. The Colts can score at any time and I think the Falcons may have just moved up to that statement. The Falcons running game is obviously far superior to that of the Colts however, it's kind of like a "pick your poison" now with trying to shut down just a part of the offense. I'm very excited to see this team play together and begin to gel. Exciting times ahead and hopefully, a TON of points on the board.

[FalconFanSince1970]

Take what the defense gives us. With so many weapons the defense can't possibly cover all of our weapons. If the defense load the box, pass.If the defense drops back, run.If the defense double covers Roddy, throw to J Jones and T Gonzalez.If the defense has a small but fast defensive front, have Turner run them over.If the defense has a large but slow defensive front, run Jacquizz.I think depending on match-ups any of our weapons could end up having huge games or they could be decoys if the defense focuses too much on that particular weapon.

Excellent post.

I would add a few things:

-Get an offensive line. We haven't had one in 10-15 years. A real one

-Get Ryan out of Roddy/Tony lock on mode

-Take some of Roddy and TonyG's snaps and redistribute them

-Redistribute some Turner snaps to Quizz, Wildwood, Snelling and Ovie

-Call some first option plays to the 3,4 and 5 option guys. Runs and passes

-Take some air out of Ryan's deep ball

-Put Weems in the game plan. He won't let us down. Trust me

-Don't go pass happy like the Madden boys are crying for

-Get a Super Bowl caliber defense

Back to your post. I agree with the notion that we have to adapt our approach more based on the opponent. Larry Drew of the Hawks is putting on a clinic with that philosophy right now. Dude adapts to the opponent very well. We started doing that more last year. To me we have the tools to pull off pretty much any kind of attack (if we get an Oline).

[Mr. Right]

2011 SNAP DISTRIBUTION

Turner - 112 snaps

Snelling - 176 snaps

Rodgers - 96 snaps

Mughelli - 80 snaps

Roddy - 160

Jones - 128

Douglas - 64

Meier - 64

Weems - 36

Gonzalez - 80

Zach Miller - 80

Peelle - 16

Palmer - 32

[raysnill1]

2011 SNAP DISTRIBUTION

Turner - 112 snaps

Snelling - 176 snaps

Rodgers - 96 snaps

Mughelli - 80 snaps

Roddy - 160

Jones - 128

Douglas - 64

Meier - 64

Weems - 36

Gonzalez - 80

Zach Miller - 80

Peelle - 16

Palmer - 32

Zach Miller??

Edited May 4, 2011 by raysnill1

[FalconFanSince1970]

2011 SNAP DISTRIBUTIONTurner - 112 snapsSnelling - 176 snapsRodgers - 96 snapsMughelli - 80 snapsRoddy - 160Jones - 128Douglas - 64Meier - 64Weems - 36Gonzalez - 80Zach Miller - 80 Peelle - 16Palmer - 32

Not bad. I see you swapped Jenk man for Miller. I think that would be a great move but don't know if it's plausible. You never know though. Al Davis would probably love the 6'4" 220 lb frame with 4.4 speed. He would probably recall the two TDs Jenk Man caught over DHall in 2008 and think I gotta have him.

[falconidae]

Excellent post.

I would add a couple things:

-Get an offensive line. We haven't had one in 10-15 years. A real one

-Get Ryan out of Roddy/Tony lock on mode

-Take some of Roddy and TonyG's snaps and redistribute them

-Call some first option plays to the 3,4 and 5 option guys

-Take some air out of Ryan's deep ball

-Don't go pass happy like the Madden boys keep crying for

Back to your post. I agree with the notion that we have to adapt our approach more based on the opponent. We started doing that more last year. To me we have the tools to pull off pretty much any kind of attack (if we get an Oline).

Think the Falcons must believe that Johnson, Valdez, Hawley and Reynolds are capable on improving the Oline. Which, if they're right, will take the air out of Ryan's deep ball because he'll have a pocket to pass from and time to use proper mechanics.

Having more time will also allow him to go through his reads, which I think is more of a problem than Ryan locking on White/Gonzo.

Ryan typically hits 7-8 different receivers in a game, but 5-8 usually just catch 1-2 passes. if they re-distribute the touches where the top 3 are targeted less and, every game, a couple of the options 5 through 8 catch 3-5 passes, this O will be deadly. You'll get the elite status of having 8 30+ catch receivers

If they cut Turners carries by 50, let Ryan throw an extra 50 times and he improves his accuracy a bit [ think both are realistic], then there are 50 extra catches to distribute. [that's 570+ 50 X .65=400-350=50]. Those are just round numbers to make the math easier.

Do agree that this team will be able to beat you any way you choose- stack the line, they'll beat you through the air, play the pass and they'll chew you up on the ground. This should be a great year for the Atlanta O.

[FalconFanSince1970]

Think the Falcons must believe that Johnson, Valdez, Hawley and Reynolds are capable on improving the Oline. Which, if they're right, will take the air out of Ryan's deep ball because he'll have a pocket to pass from and time to use proper mechanics.Having more time will also allow him to go through his reads, which I think is more of a problem than Ryan locking on White/Gonzo. Ryan typically hits 7-8 different receivers in a game, but 5-8 usually just catch 1-2 passes. if they re-distribute the touches where the top 3 are targeted less and, every game, a couple of the options 5 through 8 catch 3-5 passes, this O will be deadly. You'll get the elite status of having 8 30+ catch receiversIf they cut Turners carries by 50, let Ryan throw an extra 50 times and he improves his accuracy a bit [ think both are realistic], then there are 50 extra catches to distribute. [that's 570+ 50 X .65=400-350=50]. Those are just round numbers to make the math easier. Do agree that this team will be able to beat you any way you choose- stack the line, they'll beat you through the air, play the pass and they'll chew you up on the ground. This should be a great year for the Atlanta O.

Dam good post.

The only thing I would add is:

-Svitek >>> any of the Olineman you listed, See Turner TD against GB. Blocked 5 Packers

-Lawd help us if we lose three vets on the Oline and replace em with practice squadders

-Ryan has had plenty pockets and floated some ugly ducks. This must change

-He is definitely in lock mode on Roddy and TonyG. That must change

-Mularkey and Ryan must call better ball distribution and unlock the offense

I like your ideas about redistribution. Good post.

[Russdogg]

just sling it!!

[kierstendawg]

Take what the defense gives us. With so many weapons the defense can't possibly cover all of our weapons.

If the defense load the box, pass.

If the defense drops back, run.

If the defense double covers Roddy, throw to J Jones and T Gonzalez.

If the defense has a small but fast defensive front, have Turner run them over.

If the defense has a large but slow defensive front, run Jacquizz.

I think depending on match-ups any of our weapons could end up having huge games or they could be decoys if the defense focuses too much on that particular weapon.

That is it, we get to watch Matt Ryan earn his money now, and he is at a point in his career now where he can really, really take off and put up some big time numbers. The key will be how our offensive line holds up, I still don't think Sam Baker is a true left tackle and it shows when we get to the play offs. He could be a pro bowl RT, but I really wish we could get a big time LT with quick feet. Baker will be adequate though, and he has help, so I think we will be fine. We primarily need to strengthen the defense a little more than getting a LT this FAgency period.

[Return of SWFT]

Projections

Roddy - 90 catches 1129 yards 10tds

Tony G -65 catches 660 yards 5 tds

Julio Jones -40 catches 641 yards 3 tds

Michael Jenkins -35 catches 482 yards 2 tds

Harry Douglas -31 catches 378 yards 2 tds

Rodgers -20 catches 187 yards 1td

Snelling -15 catches 123 yards 1td

another 20 catches total /100 yards - from Turner,Meir , Pelle

Should put Ryan around 316 comp/508 atts 3620 yards ...his YPA should be around 7.1-7.5

[takeitdown]

Turner - 220 snaps

Roddy - 130 snaps

Snelling - 130 snaps

JacQuizz- 100

TonyG - 90 snaps

Jenk Man - 60 snaps

Jones- 75

Meier-50

HD - 60 snaps

Ryan - 36 snaps

Ovie - 31 snaps

Peele - 15 snaps (1.4%)

Palmer - 25 snaps (0.7%)

It'll vary a little depending on if Norwood is still around. I didn't include Weems, Norwood until we know what's going on, as that will affect each's snaps.

Basically, we need to take 50 or so looks from Roddy, 130 from Turner and 30 or 40 from Tong G, and distribute them to Julio, Quizz, Meier, Palmer.

We can only do that, though, if these guys step up and get open/make plays. That's the key to all of this.

But, if our running could be Turner 220-250 snaps, giving more to Snelling and Quiz. Similarly, take some pressure off Roddy and Tony with Julio, Meier, Douglas, and then with Jenkins getting nearly the snaps of last year.

[hakim24]

Michael Turner is not going get 33% of the snaps next year. I expect his touches to go down between 260 and 290. We will still run the ball, but we made the move to get Julio so that our passing game can evolve.

[HASHBROWN3]

Projections

Roddy - 90 catches 1129 yards 10tds

Tony G -65 catches 660 yards 5 tds

Julio Jones -40 catches 641 yards 3 tds

Michael Jenkins -35 catches 482 yards 2 tds

Harry Douglas -31 catches 378 yards 2 tds

Rodgers -20 catches 187 yards 1td

Snelling -15 catches 123 yards 1td

another 20 catches total /100 yards - from Turner,Meir , Pelle

Should put Ryan around 316 comp/508 atts 3620 yards ...his YPA should be around 7.1-7.5

Swap Tony and Julio's numbers. Gonzo was relying on savvy veteran knowhow last year and less on his wheels trust me! What will happen is when Gonzo grabs one this year he will have some room to operate. Julio will help he and Roddy immensely.

[Falcon918]

Take what the defense gives us. With so many weapons the defense can't possibly cover all of our weapons.

If the defense load the box, pass.

If the defense drops back, run.

If the defense double covers Roddy, throw to J Jones and T Gonzalez.

If the defense has a small but fast defensive front, have Turner run them over.

If the defense has a large but slow defensive front, run Jacquizz.

I think depending on match-ups any of our weapons could end up having huge games or they could be decoys if the defense focuses too much on that particular weapon.

Perfect Game Plan!

[m cooper 22]

When you say Roddy gets X amount of snaps, Jenks gets Y amount of snaps so Julio can only get Z amount of snaps.

If all 3 are on the field at the same time, but the ball is thrown to Julio, does that count as a snap for him, and the others, or just him?

Just asking.

If the guy is on the field, it's upto him to make a play, Ryan doesn't think 'oh wait no, it's his snap later'.

[dfsutton]

With All The Weapons We Have How Should We Distribute The Ball?

.

To whoever is open.

[FalconFanSince1970]

When you say Roddy gets X amount of snaps, Jenks gets Y amount of snaps so Julio can only get Z amount of snaps.If all 3 are on the field at the same time, but the ball is thrown to Julio, does that count as a snap for him, and the others, or just him? Just asking.If the guy is on the field, it's upto him to make a play, Ryan doesn't think 'oh wait no, it's his snap later'.

In the scenario you describe the snap goes to JJ.

NFL, ESPN, STATS, PFF all attribute a snap to a runner handed the ball or a receiver being targeted on a pass (WR, TE, RB, FB). There aren't many plays that are in question. Hope that helps.

[m cooper 22]

Ah, understood.

Then in a simple reply - whoever makes the play gets the snap.

Obviously we're going to pound it with Turner alot, but I honestly think it will be 15-20 times per game this season (on average). Obviously if we're playing a poor Rush D we'll go heavier and use 2 tight end sets more etc.

In regards to the passing game though, I don't mind who gets the snap, as long as they make some plays. Roddy obviously got the most because he's our star WR, but I expect his amount to drop with Julio arriving - but with an increased ypc and yac average.