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Can you admit you were wrong?


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I was reading "Learning from my mistakes"from the NFL Post and thought about the article when Mel Kiper pointed out his mistakes in over evaluating guys like Joey Harrington and Andre Ware and started to think of some of the instances I have been wrong and really missed on a prospect. I have to admit over the years I have looked back and said wtf was I thinking after seeing some of these prospects develop. Here are some of the players I totally whiffed on.

I was a young evaluator enamored with physical tools and forgot rule look for good technique in game situations rather than explosive highlights. Corey Chavous had me drinking the Kool-Aid too with the #7 comparissons.

I had him behind Norwood and Harrison. I thought the PAC 10 was a soft conference full of cream puff defenses that inflated he and Bush's numbers. Especially since they had better O-linemen then the rest of the conference. I learned vision and quickness through the hole is essential. I thought that his qaud size would put to much pressure on his knees and he would be injury prone like Jam at the next level. This is where I was reaching for reasons to not like the guy because i had no medical support for that thinking.

The rest I like to call giving player a Championship bump. Not necessarilly saying they were not good players but they played on teams that may have made them look better than they actually were and in some cases pushed them up draft boards. That and the Singletary note, "I want winners." Championship teams have winners so I used to inflate there players. I was wrong.

Texas Safety Michael Huff in 06

LSU DT Dorsey 08

Who are some of the guys you were wrong on. Admit it none of us are perfect.

Edited by Polar Bear Jones
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I was wrong about Matty Ice, for one. I didn't think he had the accuracy to be effective in most offenses and I was also scared off by his interception numbers. I'll blame this on not watching much game tape of him and not realizing just how bad his receivers were at Boston College. Matt's success is one reason I have much mor efaith in Mike Mayock as a draft prognosticator now that I used to.

And, honestly, I thought Jamaal Anderson would be a pretty good pick (not necessarily for us, but I expected him to go Top 12). His lack of success (and the late Gaines Adams's struggles) has me worried about someone like Da'Quan Bowers.

A couple of non-Falcons I missed the ball on are Aaron Curry, DeSean Jackson, Chad Henne and Amobi Okoye: either for underrating or overrating them.

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Only started looking more heavily from the 2009 season onwards at college players. Before this season started, I remember saying that Jerrod Johnson would be battling Jake Locker for the first QB taken :lol: :blink:

I also said Lawrence Guy would be a definite 1st round pick if not top-10 when I first seen him in the 2008 season. Currently projected around the 5th but I still like the guy.

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I wanted Glen Dorsey at #3 in 2008. Glad we took Matt Ryan now in hindsight. I still think Dorsey would have been much better in a 4-3 DT then a 3-4 DE but QB is where the value is.

I too was wrong with A. Smith / CB from Wake Forest. I thought he would be like a young Dre Bly.....he may still get there but has been a dissapointment thus far.

I was wrong on Kroy Biermann. I thought he was going to have a breakout season but proved he is more of a rotational DE and situational pass rusher then he is a full time starter on a championship caliber team. He is a good football player still but I thought he could take the next stap to be a 8 to 9 sack guy as a starter.

I was wrong with Mark Sanchez. I thought he was going to crumble under the NY pressure but has been better then I expected in his first 2 seasons.

I was wrong on J. Norwood but that is an injury issue.

Edited by coachx
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Man, 2008 was such an awful year for me. I loved Glenn Dorsey for us and wanted him at #3, I thought Matt Ryan was a mid-1st round guy and not a franchise QB, I didn't like Joe Flacco (thought he needed time and would suck because he was rushed in, didn't think he had that high of a ceiling. still too early to see about the ceiling part, but i thought he would fold as a rookie starter and I was wrong) and I really liked Brian Brohm. You can't get much worse than that.

I also thought Sam Bradford would be complete garbage as a rookie starter, but in some ways he was so even though he won OROY I can't admit being completely wrong on him as a prospect yet.

I thought Jake Long would struggle with speed rushers at LT and wouldn't be a great LT in the NFL, that doesn't seem to have gone well for me either.

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This will date me but I really, really thought that when the Falcons drafted Aundray Bruce #1 overall I thought he was going to be a total stud. He had size(around 6'3", 250lbs) and speed and was supposed to be kind of "wild-dog" crazy. alas, he was a HUGE BUST.

He was drafted in 1988(same year I graduated from college) - in fairness, their were a lot of busts in the top 10 that year and only 5 significant players in 1st round (Tim Brown,WR-Notre Dame-#6, Sterling Sharpe,WR-South Carolina-#7, Michael Irvin,WR-Miami-#11(HOF), Keith Jackson,TE-Oklahmoma-#13, Randall McDaniel,OT-Arizona State-#19(HOF). That is about it.

Listen to Falcons draft that year - Uggh!

1988 Falcons Draft Class:

#1-01 - Aundray Bruce,OLB-Auburn

#2-01 - Marcus Cotton,OLB-USC

#3-56 - Alex Higdon,TE-Ohio State

#5-110 - Charles Dimry,CB-UNLV

#6-138 - George Thomas,WR-UNLV

#7-166 - Michael Haynes,WR-Northern Arizona

#8-104 - Phillip Brown, LB-Alabama

#9-222 - James Primus, RB-UCLA

#10-250- Stan Clayton, OG-Penn State

#11-278- James Milling,WR-Maryland

#12-306- Carter Wiley,CB-Virginia Tech

Is it any wonder Falcons went so many seasons without b2b winners? Twelve picks there and only Michael Haynes had even a decent career. You could throw darts and get more hits on players than that.

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1988 Falcons Draft Class:

#1-01 - Aundray Bruce,OLB-Auburn

#2-01 - Marcus Cotton,OLB-USC

#3-56 - Alex Higdon,TE-Ohio State

#5-110 - Charles Dimry,CB-UNLV

#6-138 - George Thomas,WR-UNLV

#7-166 - Michael Haynes,WR-Northern Arizona

#8-104 - Phillip Brown, LB-Alabama

#9-222 - James Primus, RB-UCLA

#10-250- Stan Clayton, OG-Penn State

#11-278- James Milling,WR-Maryland

#12-306- Carter Wiley,CB-Virginia Tech

Holy Moly!! :blink:

That is worse than the Titanic disaster... at least some people survived that!!

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I thought Maurkice Pouncey would be a bust, something just struck me about him. The Fact that he played in an Offense in FLorida where he had a mobile QB inflated his stats, and he hadn't blocked for a guy who stood in the pocket a lot.

Technically though he did end up on a team with a guy like Tebow, I think that has really helped him.

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looking back I got burned with these guys (although to be fair it's too early to say) I only put the biggest mistakes:

WR/TE Dorin Dickerson (Pitt.)

Where I would consider taking him: 3rd

where he was taken: 7th

Emmanuel Sanders (SMU)

Where I would have taken him: 6th

Where he was taken: 3rd

RB Jonathan Dwyer (GT)

Where I would have taken him: 1st-2nd

Where he was taken: 6th

QB Jarrett Brown (West. VA.)

Where I would have taken him: 4th-5th

Where he was taken: Undrafted

Sure was a cool look back. I was glad I got so many picks right or close to right. :)

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Jimmy Williams for me, I thought he was great value in the 2nd.

I was never a fan of Dorsey though - Matt Ryan all the way.

Tell me about it. The year that Williams was drafted I won two of the weekly fantasy football competitions on NFL's website.

I was living in Colorado at the time so instead of 4 tickets they offered me swag for one of the weeks. (I took tickets for the Saints game that year, since I was in town for Thansgiving)so for the other week I have an Authentic Field Jersey with Williams name, number and autograph.

What the **** am I going to do with that ? When I still thought he was going to be a player, the plan was going to be to frame it and hang it in the man cave. Now since Tye Hill bombed, I'm hoping Franks turns into a baller so I can get the name changed.

Maybe I can get him to sign it at Friday Night Lights or something .... all I know is I've got to get Williams name removed from it.

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Tell me about it. The year that Williams was drafted I won two of the weekly fantasy football competitions on NFL's website.

I was living in Colorado at the time so instead of 4 tickets they offered me swag for one of the weeks. (I took tickets for the Saints game that year, since I was in town for Thansgiving)so for the other week I have an Authentic Field Jersey with Williams name, number and autograph.

What the **** am I going to do with that ? When I still thought he was going to be a player, the plan was going to be to frame it and hang it in the man cave. Now since Tye Hill bombed, I'm hoping Franks turns into a baller so I can get the name changed.

Maybe I can get him to sign it at Friday Night Lights or something .... all I know is I've got to get Williams name removed from it.

LOL......reminds me of when I won a contest for an Atlanta Hawks draft. I picked both Al Horford at #3 and Acie Law at #11 back in 2007.

My prize was a signed Acie Law basketball. WTF am I going to do with that now ? I really thought he would be a starting caliber PG at the time.

Edited by coachx
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Robert Gallery--thought he'd be the greatest LT ever

Etric Pruitt: Thought we had a heckuva steal

Lataurnace Dunbar: Thought we had a game-changing speedster

Chris Houston: I really thought we had hit on that guy

Michael Vick: Well i guess i was sorta wrong; I really thought that he'd redefine the QB position not put pit bull fighting in the front pages

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1988 Falcons Draft Class:

#1-01 - Aundray Bruce,OLB-Auburn

#2-01 - Marcus Cotton,OLB-USC

#3-56 - Alex Higdon,TE-Ohio State

#5-110 - Charles Dimry,CB-UNLV

#6-138 - George Thomas,WR-UNLV

#7-166 - Michael Haynes,WR-Northern Arizona

#8-104 - Phillip Brown, LB-Alabama

#9-222 - James Primus, RB-UCLA

#10-250- Stan Clayton, OG-Penn State

#11-278- James Milling,WR-Maryland

#12-306- Carter Wiley,CB-Virginia Tech

Holy Moly!! :blink:

That is worse than the Titanic disaster... at least some people survived that!!

I kinda feel bad for Aundray Bruce. He gets one of the greatest bust tags ever, but was he really? He played 10 years , 155 games and really didn't have bad stats bruce stats Granted, he shouldn't have been a #1 overall, but he wasn't a bad player at all. It's ironic, that we have JA98 who also was overdrafted, but you have to ignore that at some point and give him credit for being a solid decent player.

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