Jump to content

Draft methodology


Recommended Posts

We all know our management is extremely organized and always has a strategy in place. Our staff will have two specific plans. The first based upon FA coming to fruition, the second based soley on the draft. I truly feel Charles Johnson will be our #1 target bar none should FA take place. JMO.

If we must rely on the draft only, our staff will target system specific players. We will also make sure they are smart and pass the filter test in order to protect the integrity of our locker room. The distractions of the past will remain in the past.

IMO, this means we will be very methodic in our preparation. We will have mulitple priority levels in place before the draft. They might view it as follows:

Priority #1 Position (ranked in order of need)

Priority #2 Player (ranked in order of value)

Priority #3 Round (falcons-based value)

At first look this seems like an exercise in simplicity, but lets examine it more closely. Ultimately, I feel that positional needs trump everything. Clearly, positional ranking is indisputably, the largest area of disagreement on these boards. Our staff, however, knows exactly what positions they would like to fill and in what order. The problem is that the draft does not always cooperate. The draft comes to you, not visa versa. The falcons will do everything to avoid the forest gump "box of chocolates" philosophy.

If they want DE in the first, they might have 3 or 4 players they can live with in round 1. If priority #'s 1-3 have not revealed that player, they must repeat priorities #1-3 again. Clearly, simplicity has given way to complex as soon as those DE's you had targeted in round 1 are gone! But there you are, still facing that 1st round pick... Now you must ask, what is our second ranked position of need? What value have we assigned to the players still available at that position? 27 picks into the draft, it is possible that none of our 1st position of need players are available. And one or two of our 2nd position of need might be gone.

One must plan for the unplanned as well. Backup contingencies are an absolute must. Expecting surprises and disappointments prevent tradgedies from ocurring. Planning for worst case scenarios often turns would-be failure into opportunistic success. What about trading back too?

Finally, when (not if) things get hairy on draft day, they must have a big board set up listing the entire pool of players LESS any who we would never consider due to character, health, or a position of no need. This has to be a merit-based ranking exclusive to our club. A numerical ranking of who the falcons would select if there were no other teams making picks in the draft. On draft day, when a player is picked, that name is blacked out on our big board. This can be used in conjuntion w/ the priorities above until the draft is complete.

Do y'all recommend other methodology??

Edited by HASHBROWN3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until Dimitroff came along my philosophy was "Sigh in disappointment of the o-lineman that we passed up"...

biggrin.gif Yeah man. I had a few of those sigh moments too. Even when he came to the falcons. For instance, I wanted Dorsey baby! err, uummm, ph34r.gif

I sure hope we nail it this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until Dimitroff came along my philosophy was "Sigh in disappointment of the o-lineman that we passed up"...

AMEN!!!!

I don't remember where I heard/read this, and I may not be explaining it quite right. But here is what I understand that we do on draft day.

First we rank players 1 - however deep we want to go (750ish sounds good)

Next we try to mock the draft (with 1000 times in the inside information that every one of us on this MB has combined).

Then we group players in to boxes base on our rankings and needs (think it's a 5-man box)

This is where I get confused because my memory is hazy...something about if a player is left in box 1 when we draft, that's our guy. If box 1 is empty, we go to box 2 and so on down the line.

The reason to put them in boxes is so that if we have a player ranked 20 on our skill + position of need ranking & there is a player ranked #22, we don't waste time rehashing all the internal debating that put the rankings where they are. We take the guy in the highest box (#20 would be in box 4 & #22 would be in box 5). 100's of hours go into the ranking of players and this just helps streamline our effort on draft day somehow.

Now, I could be mis-remembering all of this & be way off base too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to add to Rob's post, I know some teams use 2 boards. Take the Cowboys for instance. I remember them having Sean Lee as their #3 best overall player in the entire draft - probably only behind Suh and someone else, not too sure - but on the actual value board, he was rated as a 2nd rounder by them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe in taking the big guys first. Linemen in other words in the first 2 or 3 rounds. Then take the smaller players like CB, WR, S etc. I know there are exceptions a lot of times. But this is what I believe in and it is what we do most of the time also. And sense it is what most teams do , if you don't do the same, you will not get any Quailty players on the lines most of the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe in taking the big guys first. Linemen in other words in the first 2 or 3 rounds. Then take the smaller players like CB, WR, S etc. I know there are exceptions a lot of times. But this is what I believe in and it is what we do most of the time also. And sense it is what most teams do , if you don't do the same, you will not get any Quailty players on the lines most of the time.

Hey, some dam good teams have been built with that being part of its core philosophy over the years!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AMEN!!!!

I don't remember where I heard/read this, and I may not be explaining it quite right. But here is what I understand that we do on draft day.

First we rank players 1 - however deep we want to go (750ish sounds good)

Next we try to mock the draft (with 1000 times in the inside information that every one of us on this MB has combined).

Then we group players in to boxes base on our rankings and needs (think it's a 5-man box)

This is where I get confused because my memory is hazy...something about if a player is left in box 1 when we draft, that's our guy. If box 1 is empty, we go to box 2 and so on down the line.

The reason to put them in boxes is so that if we have a player ranked 20 on our skill + position of need ranking & there is a player ranked #22, we don't waste time rehashing all the internal debating that put the rankings where they are. We take the guy in the highest box (#20 would be in box 4 & #22 would be in box 5). 100's of hours go into the ranking of players and this just helps streamline our effort on draft day somehow.

Now, I could be mis-remembering all of this & be way off base too.

I remember reading something to that effect also, but the term " tier " was used instead of box.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we have a pretty crappy position to draft in, not sure who is going to be left when we get our pick.

I really thought Eric Berry was going to be slept on last year and i anxiously watched teams skip over him hoping he would be available to us but he went a lot faster than i thought he would so i just don't know about the 27th pick. I think Berry went like number 4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we have a pretty crappy position to draft in, not sure who is going to be left when we get our pick.

I really thought Eric Berry was going to be slept on last year and i anxiously watched teams skip over him hoping he would be available to us but he went a lot faster than i thought he would so i just don't know about the 27th pick. I think Berry went like number 4.

It's like torture waiting for our turn in the draft while excellent players come off the board to other teams. Particular disgust will be felt at #1, #20 and #24. Of course, the Eagles will be wished much failure as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This Draft will be interesting.

I really think that we have needs in alot of areas, and thing we DON'T know, which the Falcons DO know, is exactly where players are in terms of skill that we haven't seen much.

I think as a collective whole we have decided what we need, but what we don't know is the evaluations of the players we do have, and the ranks they have on positions.

Will be interesting to hear TD's post Draft analysis, as it was last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That seems to work for the Patriots. ;)

Belichek (msp?) talked about his draft philosophy, actually. And it was this: BPA at a position of need. He went further to explain that if a position can be upgraded through the draft all positions are game. So if he has a pretty good DLine, but he can add a much better player and that player is BPA he'll draft him. As evidenced, by that run on DLine that he had a few years back. Seymour, Warren and then Wilfork.

But, as evidenced, he didn't draft a franchise QB to sit behind Brady. I think our philosophy is not so different. I just think that we forget (as fans) that we are only in our 4th year of a rebuilding process. Literally the 08, 09 and 10 drafts we were picking to fill out the roster! I think last year's pick of Weatherspoon saw us go a bit more of the BPA route.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it has to be best available player that fills a need. I don't care if Gabbert is available at 27, I'm not taking him b/c I don't need a QB. Looking at the Falcons, we need DE, WR, TE, RB (change of pace) and CB in the worst way. Those are the positions I'm looking to take care of first before I start looking at other "Wants".

Free Agency has always given you the chance to take care of some of those needs, but don't know if it is going to happen that way this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look at the really great, great dynasties--Green Bay in the 60's, the Dolphins, Steelers & Cowboys of the 70's, the 49er's & Redskins of the 80's, the Cowboys and Broncos of the 90's and the Patriots and Steelers of the 2000's. One thing they all did was build first the best OL and DL lines first and then slowly move toward the skill players.

Build from the inside out: Offense Line, the QB, the RB and then the receivers / Defensive line, the LB's and then the DB's. The two teams in this year's Super Bowl perfectly exemplify this...

One of my greatest anxieties--or fears, quite frankly--is the Falcons may always end up the bridesmaid because of resisting the temptation to make our OL and DL more dominant (I would have gone for Peppers over Robinson in a heartbeat for this very reason). I would rate both today as average and this could continue to be our Achilles heel...It certainly was against Green Bay (the DL, anyway)!

Build the strongest possible foundation with the steel and concrete (the DL) that will hold up the house for years and years. Then add the good, strong, grade one timber for the walls and ceiling (the LB's). Then add the trim work, HVAC and the decor (skill positions) to really enjoy the entire house!

It all starts with the big men--the foundation--as it should!

Edited by Quarterback
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For me, there are rules/levels of importance in the draft

1. If you don't have a franchise QB and there is one avaialble you take him (THE golden rule of the draft)

2. LT

3. DE and CB

4. RB, WR, DT, RT, OG, C, LB, S, TE, FB

5. K, P, ST

You could possible make a case for splitting level 4 and putting some positions (e.g. MLB, possibly even WR) above others, but they are all about the same. It also depends on your philosophy. For example, in a 3-4 system, a big DT/NT will be more important than DE, so you'd switch the 2 positions.

If you are picking late in the first round, it's not a problem if your biggest needs are in group #4. Many of the positions in that group don't get taken early, meaning that you can often get better value in those positions that at the back end of the first round.

Suffice to say that Matt Ryan over Glen Dorsey was a no brainer for me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Build from the inside out: Offense Line, the QB, the RB and then the receivers / Defensive line, the LB's and then the DB's. The two teams in this year's Super Bowl perfectly exemplify this...

Haven't both teams been building inside-out on defense only? And then added some bodies for the o-line with Pouncey and Bulaga later on, while drafting more skill positions on offense?

It's isn't many years since Green Bay led the league in sacks allowed (or at least up there somewhere)while Steeler fans complained about their lack of passprotection. Only then have both teams complemented their o-line with more help.

I think the fact that both teams were in the super bowl, doesn't say as much about how they're build, as much as it points to the fact that both had great defenses, and QBs that are ice cold and can make something out of nothing.

It's not that I am against the inside-out approach, but I don't think that is the sole reason GB and PIT battled it out in the super bowl.

Edited by niels petersen
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you pick the best player on the board at a position

of some need. Linemen, defense backs,wr and linebackers can play

multiple positions. Just get the best one and teach him the

system and cross train him.

This is not to say you keep stock piling qb's or something just

because you can always use one but just be sure to extract that

value out of each pick. They always can be traded if somebody just

has to have them and you can pick up something in the process.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...