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Most accurate 1st round mock ever


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2011 NFL Mock Draft

Most accurate ever of all time. If anyone wants to go to Las Vegas and bet your life savings on this mock happening, have at it. You'll make tons of money.

1:1 Panthers: WR - AJ Green – Georgia

Carolina's offense was 32nd in almost every offensive category. Their defense was slighty below middle of the pack in most categories. Their problem is not defense. The quickest way to improve this defense is to have the offense hold onto the ball longer and give them a rest.

I know people don't like taking wide receivers this high, but I don't like taking defensive tackles this high. There have been a huge number of early DT bust, and it has been my experience that quality DT's can be found later in every draft. I don't hear anyone saying Fairly is the next Warren Sapp Unless he is the next Warren Sapp, then a DT isn't worth taking #1 overall.

I am hearing people say AJ Green is the next Larry Fitzgerald. Receivers have long careers. One player (unless he is a QB) won't turn this franchise around in the short run, Green is the best player to take for the long run.

1:2 Broncos: OLB – Von Miller – Texas A&M

John Fox is a defensive coach. The strength of his defenses in Carolina wasn't the D-line, it was always the linebackers. If they feel Bowers is the next Julias Peppers, then he would be a shoe-in for this pick. But I'm not 100% sold on that being true. If Fox isn't either, then I think he'll fall back to his favorite defensive position: linebacker.

Von Miller tore up the senior bowl. By the time the draft rolls around, we'll be talking about him not just as a legit top 10 pick, but as a legit top pick period.

1:3 Bills: DT/3-4 DE - Nick Fairley – Auburn

Fairley fits their system better than Bowers, and he fits a position of need.

1:4 Bengals: DE - Da'Quan Bowers - Clemson

Bowers fits their top need. They would probably rather get AJ Green to keep Carson Palmer happy, but Bowers is a good consolation prize.

1:5 Cardinals: DE – Roberty Quinn – North Carolina

The Cardinals get left holding the bag. There's nobody on the board that jumps out as being the obvious choice. Wizenhunt has said before “it starts with the lines.” If faced with this situation I think they will be looking at the best lineman on either side of the ball.

I'm always leary of taking a DE this high with the intention of converting him to a 3-4 rush linebacker, but Quinn seems to be the best choice here.

1:6 Browns: DT - Marcellus Darius – Alabama

Every other player at a position of need seems to be a stretch. If they needed a CB that would be the pick here.

1:7 49ers: CB – Patrick Peterson – LSU

The 49ers desperatly need a QB, but they will make a desperate move to draft one? I don't think so. Peterson is the #1 player on many boards, and a position of need.

1:8 Titans: QB - Colin Kaepernick – Nevada

The Titans got burned bady taking a big, athletic QB—Vince Young. But long ago they hit a home-run when they drafted a small school prospect—Steve McNair. Kaepernick looks a lot more like McNair than Young.

I feel strongly that if you believe a QB is a starting caliber QB, then he is worth taking anywhere in the draft—the position is that important. CK is already working his way up the draft ladder. By draft day, drafniks will be mocking him in the late 1st round. Well, if he's worth a team trading up into the late 1st because “he can be a starting QB in the NFL,” the he is worth taking early in the first.

1:9 Cowboys: CB – Prince Amukamara – Nebraska

They love Terrance Newman in Dallas, but they really need an upgrade at CB.

1:10 Redskins QB – Blaine Gabbert – Missouri

I'm convinced Shannahan doesn't have a clue about how to evaluate talent. Gabbert is the kind of big armed QB his system needs. Whether he is worth the pick or not, he is ranked high and the Redskins need a QB.

1:11 Texans: OLB - Akeem Ayers - UCLA

With the shift to a 3-4 defense, a rush linebacker will be at the top of Houston's list. I put Ayers here because he is a more well rounded player. Not only can he rush, but he can drop back into coverage.

1:12 Vikings: OT – Anthony Castonzo – Boston College

It's obvious the Vikings are focused on finding a QB this offseason. They have also been making noise that they would like to develop one from the draft rather than sign a vet free agent. I just don't see a QB worth risking the #12 pick on at this point. IMHO, it is likely they look later in the draft for someone they can develop.

The right side of their offense needs to be shored up. This will do that, helping the running game, and taking pressure off of whichever young QB they go with.

1:13 Lions: OT – Nate Solder – Colorado

At some point the Lions have to get serious about protecting Stafford. There might be more pressing holes on the team, but you never know when you will have the chance to draft a left tackle. If you have it, you need to take it.

1:14 Rams: WR – Julio Jones – Alabama

If Jones is here the Rams will jump all over him.

1:15 Dolphins: RB – Mark Ingram – Alabama

Maybe a little early for Ingram, but he's a solid all around back that fits a need.

1:16 Jaguars: DE – Cameron Jordan – California

Jordan was a wrecking ball at the Senior Bowl. He is only lasting this long because of fit. He'll either be a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 LDE.

1:17 Patriots: OLB – Aldon Smith – Missouri

I guess it's a case of the rich getting richer. They need a pass rush LB, and Smith fell.

1:18 Chargers: OLB – Justin Houston – Georgia

Played OLB in a 3-4 in college. Fits their scheme; fits their need. The Chargers have shown they aren't afraid to go against the trend if they feel the player is the right guy for them.

1:19 Giants: OT – Tyrone Smith – So. California

This just seems like a match that's bound to happen, which means it won't. Smith is the last of the legit left tackles on the board, which means someone will probably jump over NY to draft him. If he is there though, the Giants will probably take him.

1:20 Buccaneers: DE – Ryan Kerrigan – Perdue

The Bucs go with the best 4-3 pass rush DE on the board.

1:21 Chiefs: NT – Corey Liuget – Illinois

The Chiefs are all about taking need, not BPA. If there was an outstanding 3-4 rush linebacker on the board, that is who they would take. But there isn't. So I think they'll go after their next biggest need: nose tackle. Liuget can play any line position, and is a good value at this point.

1:22 Colts: OT – Derek Sherrod – Miss. St.

I'm not so sure about Sherrod as a LT, but the Colts need help at both tackle positions. Even if he ends up at RT, he is still a good value for the Colts at this point.

1:23 Eagles: OT – Gabe Carimi – Wisconsin

Carimi played right tackle and guard at the Senior Bowl. Fortunatly for the Eagles that is the top two priorities on their line, so he'll fit them one way or the other.

1:24 Saints: DE – Adrian Clayborn – Iowa

Needs and scheme caused Clayborn to drop. The Saints will snatch him up if he is available.

1:25 Seahawks: CB – Brandon Harris – Miami

There are several good cornerbacks that will be available here. It looks like a good spot to pick up their biggest need.

1:26 Ravens WR – Torrey Smith – Maryland

They'll take the local product. A number of other receivers made noise in the Senior Bowl, but Smith has consistent all year.

1:27 Falcons DE – JJ Watt – Wisconsin

Improving their pass rush is the #1 priority for the Falcons. Even if Abraham wasn't getting near the end of his career, they need someone opposite him. They have a lot of defensive ends with upside, but they a playermaker.

1:28 Patriots: OG – Mike Pouncey - Florida

Pouncey's twin brother was a pro-bowler as a rookie. Even if they don't resign Mankins, it's hard to see them passing on a sure thing as Pouncey.

1:29 Bears: WR – Jon Baldwin – Pittsburgh

The Bears need offensive line help everywhere, but the o-line talent has really dried up. They need a #1 receiver. Baldwin is a guy that could develop into that.

1:30 Jets: QB – Cam Newton – Auburn

OK, I really don't have a clue who the Jets should draft here. There just doesn't seem to be anyone on the board that I think would be a great pick for them here. So I'm predicting someone will trade up into the 1st round and draft a QB. It may be Newton, Locker, or another QB.

1:31 Steelers: CB - Jerry Smith – Colorado

Smith is a good deal here. He's need. Why not?

1:32 Packers: RB - Mikel LeShoure – Illinois

The Packers lucked out and found a RB late in the season, but I'm not convinced he is the long term solution. In any case, in the modern NFL you need more than one decent RB.

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No way Von Miller goes to a 4-3 team at 2. A 4-3 OLB just isn't worth that high a pick.

Fox is a 4-3 guy. He'll switch the Broncos back to a 4-3 defense.

And LOL at Kaepernick being the first QB taken. His ceiling is the 2nd round.

He'll climb the charts. By draft day he'll be a legit 1st rounder.

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No way Von Miller goes to a 4-3 team at 2. A 4-3 OLB just isn't worth that high a pick.

And LOL at Kaepernick being the first QB taken. His ceiling is the 2nd round.

Agree about Kaepernick. Nobody was talking about him in the first, even after a decent Senior Bowl week.

Has Fox committed to switching the Broncos back to 4-3? Don't like Dumervil at DE...he's tiny. In a division with some physical, running teams, the Broncos better stick with the 3-4.

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2011 NFL Mock Draft

Most accurate ever of all time. If anyone wants to go to Las Vegas and bet your life savings on this mock happening, have at it. You'll make tons of money.

1:2 Broncos: OLB – Von Miller – Texas A&M

John Fox is a defensive coach. The strength of his defenses in Carolina wasn't the D-line, it was always the linebackers. If they feel Bowers is the next Julias Peppers, then he would be a shoe-in for this pick. But I'm not 100% sold on that being true. If Fox isn't either, then I think he'll fall back to his favorite defensive position: linebacker.

Von Miller tore up the senior bowl. By the time the draft rolls around, we'll be talking about him not just as a legit top 10 pick, but as a legit top pick period.

Miller is a good player, and he has boosted his stock to potentially be in the top 5, but I don't know if the Broncos are the best fit. Additionally, #2 just feels really high for him.

1:8 Titans: QB - Colin Kaepernick – Nevada

The Titans got burned bady taking a big, athletic QB—Vince Young. But long ago they hit a home-run when they drafted a small school prospect—Steve McNair. Kaepernick looks a lot more like McNair than Young.

I feel strongly that if you believe a QB is a starting caliber QB, then he is worth taking anywhere in the draft—the position is that important. CK is already working his way up the draft ladder. By draft day, drafniks will be mocking him in the late 1st round. Well, if he's worth a team trading up into the late 1st because “he can be a starting QB in the NFL,” the he is worth taking early in the first.

Wow, Kaepernick might not even get drafted in the top 40 picks but you have him going #8. You clearly think a lot of him, but he is probably two years away from potentially starting. He has potential because of his athletic ability and arm strength but he is raw. #8 is extremely high for him.

1:12 Vikings: OT – Anthony Castonzo – Boston College

It's obvious the Vikings are focused on finding a QB this offseason. They have also been making noise that they would like to develop one from the draft rather than sign a vet free agent. I just don't see a QB worth risking the #12 pick on at this point. IMHO, it is likely they look later in the draft for someone they can develop.

The right side of their offense needs to be shored up. This will do that, helping the running game, and taking pressure off of whichever young QB they go with.

I agree that the Vikings are going to avoid QB with this pick, at least that is my gut feeling at this point. However, this is pretty high for Castonzo, at least in my opinion. He's a solid tackle, but he's not that special. That's just my opinion I guess.

1:13 Lions: OT – Nate Solder – Colorado

At some point the Lions have to get serious about protecting Stafford. There might be more pressing holes on the team, but you never know when you will have the chance to draft a left tackle. If you have it, you need to take it.

This also feels high for Solder. He has tons of athletic ability but he is not a guy who can step in and start right away in my opinion. He will need some time and some coaching up. I just don't think any of the tackles warrant top 15 picks this year... but I'm sure one of them will go there anyways.

1:18 Chargers: OLB – Justin Houston – Georgia

Played OLB in a 3-4 in college. Fits their scheme; fits their need. The Chargers have shown they aren't afraid to go against the trend if they feel the player is the right guy for them.

Did you ever watch Houston play? He does not fit the 3-4 scheme from a coverage perspective at all and Georgia ran a vast amount of 4 down lineman sets in their nickel packages against spread offenses. The last time they picked a player who was probably a better fit in a 4-3 even though he didn't show much promise in coverage they ended up with Larry English, the guy Houston would likely be replacing. They'd be much better off with Ayers if he dropped or waiting later for someone better in coverage, even if Houston is a good pass rusher.

1:21 Chiefs: NT – Corey Liuget – Illinois

The Chiefs are all about taking need, not BPA. If there was an outstanding 3-4 rush linebacker on the board, that is who they would take. But there isn't. So I think they'll go after their next biggest need: nose tackle. Liuget can play any line position, and is a good value at this point.

Liuget is very strong, and can hold up against double teams, but he is a perfect fit for a 4-3 defense and would be completely mis-cast as a NT in a 3-4 defense. He could probably be a good 3-4 DE but again, I think he is a perfect fit for 4-3 UT.

1:30 Jets: QB – Cam Newton – Auburn

OK, I really don't have a clue who the Jets should draft here. There just doesn't seem to be anyone on the board that I think would be a great pick for them here. So I'm predicting someone will trade up into the 1st round and draft a QB. It may be Newton, Locker, or another QB.

So you think that the only QB's that are going to go in round 1 are Kaepernick, Gabbert and Newton, and in that order? I can't imagine that happening.

1:31 Steelers: CB - Jerry Smith – Colorado

Smith is a good deal here. He's need. Why not?

There were a couple typos with names on other players, like Tyrone Smith when it is really Tyron Smith, and I didn't say anything to avoid being nit-picky. But Jerry isn't even close.

I disagree strongly with all of these picks. My comments are in the bold. Definitely not the most accurate 1st round mock ever, but I'm sure you realize that despite your unoriginal poll and arrogant thread title.

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Why would we draft another Jamaal Anderson?

Why would the Panties draft a WR when they have no one who can throw it to him.

Lol at Kapeneric in the first.

Lol at the Jets taking Scam Newton when they need obvious help on their DLine.

Also Lol at Packers taking a RB, They have Ryan Grant.

Edited by Zodiac
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