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Michael Turner is Burned Out


Zodiac
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Now I love what Turner has done during his brieft time here, but we need to get realistic and look at the future, Turner will be 30 Years old next year.

During his time in Atlanta Turner has compiled a total of 888 Carries for 3941 yards

Averaging rougly 4.4 Yards a Carry.

His Yards Per Carry in '08 were 4.5 YPC

in '09 the year he got injured he was sitting at 4.9 YPC when he got injured

in '10 thier was a huge decrease as it dropped to 4.1 YPC.

in '08 Turner had 376 Carries for 1699 yards. His actual best season.

in '09 he had 178 Carries for 871 yards. Turner has consistently finished with 300 carries each of his seasons in Atlanta if he would've had 168 more carries he would've finished with about more yards, which would have given him 1695 Yards on 346 Carries. Finishing out with his 4.9 average. As you see his YPC would've went up and he would've had what would be considered his best season.

In '10 Turner had 334 Carries for 1371 with 4.1 YPC as you noticed everything went down.

He only averaged 4.1 YPC and had his lowest Rushing total in his career as a starter at age 29. Even though he was named the NFCs starting RB.

NExt year Michael Turner will be 30 This is ussualy the age where RBs hit the wall.

If you go back and watch film Turner during his frist year starting would every arm tackle thrown at him and 4th wrap up before going down,

During his Second yearHe still broke every arm tackle but and still only started going don the 3rd wrap up

Now if you watch this year Turner still broke the majority of arm tackles but started going down around the 2nd wrap up tackle.

If you take this things for what they are you can see a common Bell curve pattern in it

where Turner should've hit his best point in his career in '09 according to what stats we have to base on whil climbing up in '08 he took a sharp dive in '10 , he'll be 30 next year it's very unlikely that even with a speed back he will be able to rebound and set the curve upwards again, from what I can tell if the trend continues Turner should gstill break the Majority of the arm tackles but go down around 1st wrap up, including the more movement towards the passing game that we are heading we should see Turner maybe get 300-310 Carries finish the season with about 1180 yards at 3.9 YPC which would give him a total of 302 Carries to finish the season.

Currently Michael Turner is under contract through 2013, he'll be 33 at the end of his contract

Realistically if the trend continues from the evidence gathered Turner really can't be relied on past this upcoming season.

More Statiscal Evidences

2008

3.3 Yards after contact per attempt

51 Missed tackles (once every 7.4 attempts)

1277 of 1699 came after contact (75.2%)

2009(missed 5 games)

3.3 Yards after contact per attempt

27 Missed tackles (once every 6.6 attempts)

594 of 875 came after contact (67.9%)

2010

2.8 Yards after contact per attempt

46 Missed tackles (once every 7.5 attempts)

941 of 1370 yards came after contact (68.7%)

-Ty Rai.

Edited by Zodiac
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We had better get a solid RB this offseason. Just another reason why I cant stand MM. Hes wearing down Turner, just like we wore down Jamaal Anderson.

I really like Michael Bush out of Oak he's due to be an FA This year (CBA Willing) he basically turner but better recieveing skills and faster.

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"If you go back and watch film Turner during his frist year starting would every arm tackle thrown at him and 4th wrap up before going down,

During his Second yearHe still broke every arm tackle but and still only started going don the 3rd wrap up"

What did that mean?

Anyways when the other teams defense's # 1 priority over anything else is to stop Michael Turner, well he might just not have 2000 Yard seasons every year.

That is the blueprint to beat the Falcons. Stop Michael Turner. Even with teams having this blueprint, Michael Turner led the NFC in rushing.

Michael Turner is an excellent pure power runner. He is not a complete back, but when he's toting the rock get out of here with that BS about Michael Turner not being a good rb.

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I thought you meant burnt by the sun in Hawaii.

Dude is still a top 5 back. Probably for at least another year or two.

His Oline may be burned out cause they have gotten handled by good defenses for three straight years.

Mularkey burning him out is laughable. Mularkey throws more than he runs. Norwood might have burned him out though.

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"If you go back and watch film Turner during his frist year starting would every arm tackle thrown at him and 4th wrap up before going down,

During his Second yearHe still broke every arm tackle but and still only started going don the 3rd wrap up"

What did that mean?

Anyways when the other teams defense's # 1 priority over anything else is to stop Michael Turner, well he might just not have 2000 Yard seasons every year.

That is the blueprint to beat the Falcons. Stop Michael Turner. Even with teams having this blueprint, Michael Turner led the NFC in rushing.

Michael Turner is an excellent pure power runner. He is not a complete back, but when he's toting the rock get out of here with that BS about Michael Turner not being a good rb.

Did I ever say anywhere in there that he isnt a good back?

What that means is when guys tried to arm tackle him he broke more at the beginning of his starting career and when guys wrapped up on him more he broke more of those tackles at the starting poitn of his career.

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I thought you meant burnt by the sun in Hawaii.

Dude is still a top 5 back. Probably for at least another year or two.

His Oline may be burned out cause they have gotten handled by good defenses for three straight years.

Mularkey burning him out is laughable. Mularkey throws more than he runs. Norwood might have burned him out though.

Yes Maybe for another YEar but honestly I dont see him breaking 1000 Yards after this next year.

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We had better get a solid RB this offseason. Just another reason why I cant stand MM. Hes wearing down Turner, just like we wore down Jamaal Anderson.

dude Jamaal Anderson blew out both his knees, if I remember right. Horrific comparison, and I could somewhat agree with this if Turner showed signs of wearing down. He is still breaking tackles, getting YAC, and in his 3 years here had an ankle sprain, and that's it. we are REALLY jumping the gun here. I understand the want for a 'flashier' back like Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles, but until we can Mularkey, forget these types of players. We're not going to implement a dodgy, scatty, RB as a feature back in a power running game.

I don't dislike Michael Bush but until Turner starts going down easier or runs with less conviction, we need to just sandbag this 'Turner is done' garbage.

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dude Jamaal Anderson blew out both his knees, if I remember right. Horrific comparison, and I could somewhat agree with this if Turner showed signs of wearing down. He is still breaking tackles, getting YAC, and in his 3 years here had an ankle sprain, and that's it. we are REALLY jumping the gun here. I understand the want for a 'flashier' back like Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles, but until we can Mularkey, forget these types of players. We're not going to implement a dodgy, scatty, RB as a feature back in a power running game.

I don't dislike Michael Bush but until Turner starts going down easier or runs with less conviction, we need to just sandbag this 'Turner is done' garbage.

Honestly I was just looking a bit ahead at thing IM not saying he's done yet but after this year I think he will be. I was also being kind to him I acctually think Turner will maybe have 290-300 Carries but I put 300-310 in there for consistency as it makes it easier to evaluate him that way

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Did I ever say anywhere in there that he isnt a good back?

What that means is when guys tried to arm tackle him he broke more at the beginning of his starting career and when guys wrapped up on him more he broke more of those tackles at the starting poitn of his career.

Ok go back and watch your tape, defender's got smart and in 09 and 10 started tackling Michael's legs. Turner breaks arms tackles and anyone tackling high all day long. So what it means is that people are trying to arm tackle him less and are making sure to form tackle around his legs. He still had 1300+ yards.

Now i've been saying this for years. If Michael Turner had Jamal Anderson's stiff arm and Snellings hands. Yowza that'd be a baller. But as a pure runner with teams focusing on him soley, he gets the job done.

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dude Jamaal Anderson blew out both his knees, if I remember right. Horrific comparison, and I could somewhat agree with this if Turner showed signs of wearing down. He is still breaking tackles, getting YAC, and in his 3 years here had an ankle sprain, and that's it. we are REALLY jumping the gun here. I understand the want for a 'flashier' back like Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles, but until we can Mularkey, forget these types of players. We're not going to implement a dodgy, scatty, RB as a feature back in a power running game.

I don't dislike Michael Bush but until Turner starts going down easier or runs with less conviction, we need to just sandbag this 'Turner is done' garbage.

I never said replace Turner as the feature back. But we need a change of pace back and need to give more freedom to Ryan, so we dont wear down Turner and he blows his knees out. You cant give any back, especially one of his size as many carries as we do.

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a 1300 yard Rb with how many TDs is not good enough??? He was that face of your offense, I think the problem lyes else where.

Dude you have to look at our offense as a whole

He had a lot of carries this year due to Jrock going down for the year and Snelling going down frequently.

Our GM already said he wants to make our Offense more explosive which means even less carries for Turner and we're starting to swtich more and more to a Pass first O.

Realistically Turner is Old. I think he has 1 more decent season left in him but after that I wouldn't expect another 1k yard season as his carreis will keep going down and so will his YPC. Based on the statistical trends.

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Dude you have to look at our offense as a whole

He had a lot of carries this year due to Jrock going down for the year and Snelling going down frequently.

Our GM already said he wants to make our Offense more explosive which means even less carries for Turner and we're starting to swtich more and more to a Pass first O.

Realistically Turner is Old. I think he has 1 more decent season left in him but after that I wouldn't expect another 1k yard season as his carreis will keep going down and so will his YPC. Based on the statistical trends.

He had a lot of carries because he's our feature back and we're a run first team. What does us becoming a Pass first O have anything to do with Turner's effectiveness? In all honestly I really really reallllllly hope we do start stretching the field more. MMMMMMMMM when those safeties and linebackers arn't crowding the line, you'll see Turner's "Old" *** 10 to 15 yards downfield facing corner's who don't want a piece of whats coming towards him.

Put the calculator down and open your eyes.

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He had a lot of carries because he's our feature back and we're a run first team. What does us becoming a Pass first O have anything to do with Turner's effectiveness? In all honestly I really really reallllllly hope we do start stretching the field more. MMMMMMMMM when those safeties and linebackers arn't crowding the line, you'll see Turner's "Old" *** 10 to 15 yards downfield facing corner's who don't want a piece of whats coming towards him.

Put the calculator down and open your eyes.

Even than its ussua;y a run 70% of the time when turner is on the field mainly cause we have to put Snelling in when we pass as he's a much better Blocker. Not to mention with the idea of 2 new starting linement we would likely see Snelling even more on passing downs to help block. Will stretching the field help, sure a bit. Will it turn him back to '08 and '09 form **** no.

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Uhmm give AP 334 Carries, Give Ahmad Bradshaw 334 Carries, Give Lesean McCoy 334 Carries **** Give Mike Vick 334 Carries. Turner led the NFC in rushing because he was used so **** much.

Don't throw a hissy just because somebody calls you out. Michael Turner led the NFC in rushing, the end. Are you saying Roddy is no good? Give Larry Fitz, give Reggie Wayne, give TO, give Brandon Lloyd, give Desean Jackson, give any top tier receiver 115 catches.

This league is based on what happens, not what ifs.

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Don't throw a hissy just because somebody calls you out. Michael Turner led the NFC in rushing, the end. Are you saying Roddy is no good? Give Larry Fitz, give Reggie Wayne, give TO, give Brandon Lloyd, give Desean Jackson, give any top tier receiver 115 catches.

This league is based on what happens, not what ifs.

115 Rec is a lot dif from 334 Carries, There were several people this year with 100+ Rec seasons only 2 with 300+ Carries thats Foster and Turner, and you cant just say oh he lead the NFC In rushing so therefore hes not declining at all, Im saying give any one of those guys 334 and they would piss all over 1300 yards.

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Reached my quota on negatives from this thread alone. You're reasoning is just ridiculous "he's not breaking the third arm tackle." How many THIRD ARM TACKLES did you watch? Is there a highlight reel of that somewhere? And who could forget "he won't break 1000 yards next year". I don't know which one of these idiots convinced you that we need a new RB I can't wait for you to eat your words next year... and the year after that. Turner makes Ryan better, and Turner IS our offense. We should be so lucky to have a RB of his caliber. Put the bottle down, you don't need that... we need each other.... :wacko:

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I'll give you some other stats as well for Turner.

2008

3.3 Yards after contact per attempt

51 Missed tackles (once every 7.4 attempts)

1277 of 1699 came after contact (75.2%)

2009

3.3 Yards after contact per attempt

27 Missed tackles (once every 6.6 attempts)

594 of 875 came after contact (67.9%)

2010

2.8 Yards after contact per attempt

46 Missed tackles (once every 7.5 attempts)

941 of 1370 yards came after contact (68.7%)

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Reached my quota on negatives from this thread alone. You're reasoning is just ridiculous "he's not breaking the third arm tackle." How many THIRD ARM TACKLES did you watch? Is there a highlight reel of that somewhere? And who could forget "he won't break 1000 yards next year". I don't know which one of these idiots convinced you that we need a new RB I can't wait for you to eat your words next year... and the year after that. Turner makes Ryan better, and Turner IS our offense. We should be so lucky to have a RB of his caliber. Put the bottle down, you don't need that... we need each other.... :wacko:

.... Your kidding do you know what wrapping up is? is def not arm tackling. I said he wotn break 1k Yards the year after this upcoming one based on the statisical trends,

Ryan certainly didnt need Turner against Baltimore, Ryan is starting to develop into his own, yes Turner is helping but your delusional if you think our whole offense is Turner.

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I'll give you some other stats as well for Turner.

2008

3.3 Yards after contact per attempt

51 Missed tackles (once every 7.4 attempts)

1277 of 1699 came after contact (75.2%)

2009

3.3 Yards after contact per attempt

27 Missed tackles (once every 6.6 attempts)

594 of 875 came after contact (67.9%)

2010

2.8 Yards after contact per attempt

46 Missed tackles (once every 7.5 attempts)

941 of 1370 yards came after contact (68.7%)

Like I said theres a def decline, the only thing thats messing it up is '09 when he got hurt and missed 5 games.

Fill those out with estimates and it def looks like a sharp decline.

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