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Lies, D*mn Lies, and Statistics


Peyton
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It doesn't bother me that many media members are picking the Packers this week. I respect that view point and I have lots of respect for the Packers this year and the way they have overcome their injuries.

The only thing that is irritating me about the media this week is the revisionist history regarding the Falcons/Packers game. The whole "the Packers dominated the game and would have won if the Falcons hadn't got lucky" bit is grating on me a little bit. People recite the fact that the Packers outgained Atlanta by 119 yards like it means the game was lopsided and the Falcons just caught a lucky break.

Well, I got a few things I wanted to point out about the game, because that particular statistic is really just a sign of the way the Falcons play when they have a lead, and not an indication that they were physically dominated. Anybody who knows the Falcons know they play a different game when they are in the lead as opposed to behind.

So here are some things that I think people should keep in mind about that game.

1. The Falcons led the game for 30:46. The game was tied for 29:14. The Packers led for 00:00.

2. If Rodgers hadn't fumbled, the Packers would have had 4th and goal from the 1. People assuming the fumble costs the Packers a TD are seriously in error.

3. Prior to the Packers long TD drive to tie the game in the 4th quarter, the Falcons held an 8 minute possession advantage, had made 19 first downs to Green Bay's 16, and total yardage was separated by only 19 yards (293-274). Also, the Packers got a big chunk of their offensive yards on the last play of the game, where the Falcons only measure of success was to not give up a TD.

4. After the Falcons recovered the Rodgers fumble with 7:27 left in the 2nd quarter, the Packers never again had a possession with an opportunity to take the lead. As much as some like to pretend the Packers dominated this game, they needed two miraculous 4th down conversions on their last drive just to tie it up at the end.

I bolded that last one because it is critical to my point. Not only did GB not dominate the football game, the Falcons kept firm enough control of the game to where the Packers never even had an opportunity to take a lead after the mid point of the 2nd quarter.

Anyway, the "GB dominated Atlanta" stuff has been irritating me, and I wanted to get that off my chest.

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Anyway, the "GB dominated Atlanta" stuff has been irritating me, and I wanted to get that off my chest.

Funny how all the analyst miss the critical aspect that gave the Falcons the victory...SPT. We started on our 30 on KR and they started on their 20 on KR. Our SPT, which has turned K/O n P cov. into a strength, dominated that aspect of the game. Packers have improved their SPT in no way that I can see and M. Bryant has not been D. Akers this season. I take ATL by 2 scores all day long in this one. Times-Up on the Pack. +1

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the packers looked like they were in chase mode the whole game. we controlled the tempo throughout.

the thing that irks me the worst is the assertion that green bay should have won, but when they talk about the saints game, where we fumbled at the one yard line, no one was banging the "falcons should have won" drum. it's the hypocrisy of it all.

what it shows you is the gang mentality of the media. it's like little kids piling on at the playground.

the only people i can respect out of all this is vegas, lol. they have no interest in piling on. they want money. what's interesting is that we were the oddsmakers' favorite from the nfc, but this was the worst/toughest of all matchups for us, according to them. mike vick screwed us again! :P

that being said, i'm getting a sense that the players are ready to roll for this game. as the week goes on (granted this could simply be from me being locked in my house with three kids all week), i'm sensing that we are going to win this going away in the end. i think the physical and mental toll of the "playoff mode" the packers have been in for a month is going to catch up with them here. they were lucky to beat philly (seriously, akers??). i don't see them being lucky again.

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I was just now watching NFLN and one of the talking heads said that Atlanta only won because they got lucky. That if Rodgers hadnt fumbled that game would have been over. Since when does the turn overs not count in a teams favor? It is amazing how these guys try to spin things to support their picks. Why spin? Look at the facts. If that was the case why did they not say the Falcons would have won the game against the Aints if Turner hadnt fumbled on the 1? Doesnt the same rules apply to the Falcons? Thats the kind of SH!T that pisses me off. I do not care if they pick us to win but come on guys, atleast remain objective from week to week. If you give a team credit one week you have to apply the same standards to every other team every other week of the year. F em! I think tomorrow night the Falcons are going to prove to the world why they are the number one seed.

As long as they dont do it by recovering fumbles or getting interceptions because they dont count. :unsure: :rolleyes:

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What team HASN'T on any given Sunday????

Specifically I was referring to our lack of conversions on 3 and short.. 1 for 6 in under three yards. Albeit we converted one of the 3and1's missed on 4th.. but still 20 % in those situations is pathetic. Missed opportunities that had no business being at 20%.

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the packers looked like they were in chase mode the whole game. we controlled the tempo throughout.

the thing that irks me the worst is the assertion that green bay should have won, but when they talk about the saints game, where we fumbled at the one yard line, no one was banging the "falcons should have won" drum. it's the hypocrisy of it all.

Look, you know....here is what people should realize about the game.

After the Packers fumbled, the Falcons marched right down the field 80 yards for a TD.

When the Packers eventually got around to tying it up, the Falcons marched right down the field again 80 yards for a TD.

When the Packers tied it up at the end, the Falcons marched right to where they needed to be and won the game.

Any time the Falcons needed to make a play in this one, they made it.

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I was just now watching NFLN and one of the talking heads said that Atlanta only won because they got lucky. That if Rodgers hadnt fumbled that game would have been over.

Well, in fairness to that particular talking head, if not for that fumble, the Packers would have stormed out to a seemingly insurmountable 6-3 lead.

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Look, you know....here is what people should realize about the game.

After the Packers fumbled, the Falcons marched right down the field 80 yards for a TD.

When the Packers eventually got around to tying it up, the Falcons marched right down the field again 80 yards for a TD.

When the Packers tied it up at the end, the Falcons marched right to where they needed to be and won the game.

Any time the Falcons needed to make a play in this one, they made it.

it was an odd game that way. it always felt like we were 10 points ahead when, in reality, we were always one play from being tied. it was definitely bend, but don't break. in the end, it's almost always a matter of red zone defense. holding this team to field goals instead of touchdowns is huge. they're going to move the ball. i believe we'll hold them in the red zone a time or two and force a turnover or two.

if you look at the stats on their season, the catalyst for them has been turnovers. they forced crazy amounts of turnovers at home, and it turned into a nice ppg average at lambeau. on the road, however, they didn't. i want to say they scored nearly 12 points less on the road, and it looked to be directly tied to forcing less turnovers (nearly 2 less per game, i believe). if we hold onto the ball, i like our chances.

there was a nice graphic in a post from earlier in the week that showed their yearly splits in a table. it was really telling.

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Specifically I was referring to our lack of conversions on 3 and short.. 1 for 6 in under three yards. Albeit we converted one of the 3and1's missed on 4th.. but still 20 % in those situations is pathetic. Missed opportunities that had no business being at 20%.

The "missed opportunities" were a direct result of the Bird's D. ;)

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Again, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY MULTIPLE TEAMS CAN SAY THE SAME THING!

WE ALL PLAY BY THE SAME RULES.

And your point is?

I am not using that as an excuse.. more as it irritates me that we left them on the field. I hate sloppy football like that.. were we didn't have the nads to grind out third and shorts.

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Well, in fairness to that particular talking head, if not for that fumble, the Packers would have stormed out to a seemingly insurmountable 6-3 lead.

^This. As you said, without the fumble it's still 4th and 1. Best case scenario for the Packers is they go for and get the TD. Since when has a game been "over" at 10-3 in the SECOND QUARTER!!

Why is too much to ask that people that are paid to talk about football games actually watch those football games?

Edited by Lucky_Tom
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I think we are going to have to learn to live with the lack of respect for this team. They are 13-3 this year and get put through the ringer each and every week by the media. I do not see that changing.

Some say that if the Falcons go on and win the Super Bowl that will change. I do not see it happening.

You can take any game this season and point out why the losing team should have won and that is exactly what they will do. No matter if the Falcons come out and stomp the Pats 42-0 in the big game there would be some reason offered up as to why the Falcons got lucky.

In all my years of watching football i have never seen a team get so much negativity with a winning record. Its not going to change. They hate the Falcons and refuse to say anything positive about them.

If they give credit in any way there is always a BUT involved somewhere soon thereafter. Total bullsh!t.

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I think we are going to have to learn to live with the lack of respect for this team. They are 13-3 this year and get put through the ringer each and every week by the media. I do not see that changing.

Some say that if the Falcons go on and win the Super Bowl that will change. I do not see it happening.

I disagree with you. Once you win the Super Bowl, everything changes.

Look at the Saints this year. They were clearly a tick behind the Falcons all year. They won less games, scored less points, allowed more points, and played a weaker schedule....but all year people thought the Saints were better, and even predicting the Saints to go all the way up until a week ago.

I think things will really change if the Falcons win the Super Bowl, but I don't really care, all I really care about is SCOREBOARD.

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I'm still bothered by the myth about Weems' return/facemask penalty. It has rapidly become "conventional wisdom" around the league that the extra 15 yards is what gave Atlanta the edge they needed to pull off the win against Green Bay in Week 12. This "wisdom" should be patently absurd to anyone who actually bothered to watch the game -- and shows how many of these analysts don't, and simply parrot statistics or what other analysts say. Anyone who watched the game (and I would hope our Packer brethren would agree with this) knows that Weems was gone. It was a surefire TD return, and Wilhelm did the RIGHT thing by drawing a penalty to stop him. It was a heads-up play by Wilhelm to get the penalty -- NOT a mistake. The continued use of that return/penalty to illustrate Green Bay's supposed superiority is really starting to get on my last nerve.

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I think we are going to have to learn to live with the lack of respect for this team. They are 13-3 this year and get put through the ringer each and every week by the media. I do not see that changing.

Some say that if the Falcons go on and win the Super Bowl that will change. I do not see it happening.

You can take any game this season and point out why the losing team should have won and that is exactly what they will do. No matter if the Falcons come out and stomp the Pats 42-0 in the big game there would be some reason offered up as to why the Falcons got lucky.

In all my years of watching football i have never seen a team get so much negativity with a winning record. Its not going to change. They hate the Falcons and refuse to say anything positive about them.

If they give credit in any way there is always a BUT involved somewhere soon thereafter. Total bullsh!t.

it was like that in 98. it was like that in 04, to an extent. even then, vick's playmaking was cited as the only reason we might beat philly. some fools were even picking the rams, a .500 team that year, to come in and beat us in the playoffs after they upset seattle (nevermind we beat them down in the regular season as well).

i'd like to think if we win a super bowl it might change. the saints would be an example of that, but it's hard to tell if it's respect or pity they were getting after katrina. they had/have a heck of a team, but they became "america's team" and caught a lot of media love for that. otherwise, they were different from us in no way as far as history and such.

we'll never get true respect until we begin to do things consistently every year, and that means moving beyond the first round of the playoffs and beyond in multiple seasons. i wasn't a super bowl or bust guy this season, but we have a golden opportunity this year. it's not every year you're the one seed. we must take advantage of it if we even want to discuss being respected, despite a great regular season.

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The "missed opportunities" were a direct result of the Bird's D. ;)

No doubt that played into it.. but this Packer team this season has a nasty habit of failing in third and short at a alarming rate.

Many a thread tearing them a new one because of it back home. ;)

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You know what's really going to bother me is if we win convincingly, I can just see every talking about how the Falcons "surprised everybody" with their performance. No, they're only going to surprise the people who haven't bothered to watch this team play (even though they're paid to) and think they know what happened in a game from looking at a box score.

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I'm still bothered by the myth about Weems' return/facemask penalty. It has rapidly become "conventional wisdom" around the league that the extra 15 yards is what gave Atlanta the edge they needed to pull off the win against Green Bay in Week 12. This "wisdom" should be patently absurd to anyone who actually bothered to watch the game -- and shows how many of these analysts don't, and simply parrot statistics or what other analysts say. Anyone who watched the game (and I would hope our Packer brethren would agree with this) knows that Weems was gone. It was a surefire TD return, and Wilhelm did the RIGHT thing by drawing a penalty to stop him. It was a heads-up play by Wilhelm to get the penalty -- NOT a mistake. The continued use of that return/penalty to illustrate Green Bay's supposed superiority is really starting to get on my last nerve.

Agreed.. and furthermore special teams is one of the hidden weaknesses that analysts fail to recognize with this Packer team.. both in coverage and returns.

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Want an honest observation.. you folks, fans and players are letting the media types get way to far under your skin.

Simply put.. they go with the sways of the wind.. changing rapidly and with little rhyme or reason. Next week it is will be something new and catchy.

Many say we have no running game.. but we stack up 100 yards a game for the season.. but we don't have the consistency in the running game, but they fail to mention that correctly. Last week Rodgers was the worst QB in the playoffs because he hadn't won a playoff game in his single chance at the playoffs.. a game were he put up huge numbers and scored late in the game.. rabble.. rabble.. rabble.

That is their freaking jobs to be catchy and create interest.. one way is to throw in some disrespect.. whether by design or by pure laziness in their research.

There will always be someone that picks against you.. so be it.. prove them wrong and tune them out.

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