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Why the Packers are our NFC Championship


helmsman
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So I have been doing a bit of looking around and I have been able to put together some statistical information that points to this Sunday being our NFCCG. Ok, maybe not in NFL terms, but if we win Sunday, the Bears will go down much easier.

First off, GreenBay brings a much higher level of offense to the GA Dome than the Bears. The Bears are no higher than 21st in any of the main offensive categories (Pnts, Yards Total, Pass and Rush yards). The Packers on the other hand are top 10 in three out of four of those categories besides rushing, which they rank 24th in the leauge.

So we know that the Packers struggle to consistently run the ball. We also can see that the Bears are bad at both being 28th in passing and 22nd in rushing respectively.

Now a quick defensive picture: Both of these teams defenses are stout and come hard and fast. The Bears weakest point is in their secondary where they rank 20th in yards allowed through the air. However, they are 2nd in Rush defense which means that to beat the Bears you must be able to go over the top of them. The Packers are just the opposite. The Packers are great at stopping the pass ability of teams while they struggle (18th) to stop the run week in and week out.

Okay, tell me something I didn't know pundit. Patience, I am coming to all of that. First, lets take a look at the key players performances from the past month to see what disparities, if any, we can conjure up.

Aaron Rodgers has been lights out stats wise. His completion % hover in the high 60's and he plays mistake free football more often then not. The last two losses of GB come with Rodgers being out from concussion. Looking at the GB losses when Rodgers played, it is hard to find a weakness of Rodgers. He was sacked 4 and 5 times in the two losses WASH and MIA but in the loss to CHI back in September he was not sacked once and GB still lost. This loss seems to be hinged on the ineffective running game of the Packers. Numbers show the Rodgers does not throw many INT's but in all of GB's losses except one (vs ATL) he threw at least one INT. A key contributor to rodgers performance is his legs. Rodgers has ran for 356 yards this season with an average of over 5 ypc and 5 rushing TD's. For Atlanta to stop GB this running has got to be stopped. Too often first downs are won by the legs of Rodgers.

GB defense is the culprit for worrisome Atlanta Fans. GB is 2nd in the NFL for scoring defense. They are good at getting points off other teams mistakes but with the Falcons playing mostly mistake-free football, even going four weeks without a turnover at one point this season, Atlanta should have a slight edge over the GB defense.

The reason GB is the harder match up, the true NFCCG if you will, is that the team is complete. It is complete in every phaze and aspect except one, a RB. A consistent RB I should add. However, with Rodgers ability and the defense hawk skills Sunday looks to be the true test for Atlanta's road to the SuperBowl.

Chicago is much weaker. Cutler has a way lower completion % than Rodgers. Cutler has a much closer ratio of TD to INT. Cutler has a weak OL which has allowed for over 50 sacks this season. Cutler is more careless with the b all, having 10 fumbles this season with 6 of them lost. The Bears have a much better run game with Forte but their receiving core leaves much to be wanted. Their RB has the teams 2nd highest receptions totals at 51 which is actually tied with their #1 receiver, Jonny Knox.

So instead of having a complete TEAM, the Bears are closer to having a complete defense than any other facet of the team. In every loss of the Bears this season Cutler has thrown INT's and been sacked. Often, his completion % hovers around 50% in the losses.

The Bears are a much easier opponent for the Falcons when compared to Greenbay. This was only a short dissertation of relevant statistics but a complete breakdown would show more of the same though in much longer paragraphs.

KEYS TO VICTORY:

Keep Rodgers contained--- Stop letting him continue drives with his legs.

Stifle the Run--- Prevent their rookie RB from having a two-week run.

Ball Control--- TOP is key. Keep the ball, win the game.

Defensive Turnovers--- They have a Rookie RB, fumble. Also, Blitz up the middle to keep Rodgers from having complete vision over the field. Make him focus on one side of the field due to pressure and constant turning. Angles are key here.

Coaching--- Mike Smith will have our guys ready, but so will the PAckers coach.

Scoring Defense--- Bend but don't break. We need to keep ahead of these guys on the scoreboard early to keep them in our game plan. We do not want a shootout.

Rise Up--- Intensity. Our team has to come on the field and shove the rock down the throats of GB. Flatten Rodgers, Lay some wood, make the best of any and all opportunities. TD's over FG, FG's over punts. Sustained drives and hard hits are the keys to success.

Also, Dunte, take better angles. No more of those quick outs that turn into 30+ yards because you took a bad angle and tried to wrap a guy up going sideways.

MISTAKE FREE FOOTBALL WINS THE GAME. NEXT SUNDAY, We will have a lot more room for error and mistakes. Not this week. The second best team in the NFC is coming to our house on Sunday. After that, it only gets easier.

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1 game at a time dude..

Not sure what you are implying... I was just speculating that this Saturdays* game was going to be our real test for getting to the Super Bowl as Chicago is not as complete as GB and so will have more weaknesses to exploit.

No one is game planning for the Patriots, at least not publicly =)

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Guest AtlWhite84

Doesn't matter who is more complete or who has the better QB or the better defense or the better coaches. Any team in the NFL can beat any other team in the NFL on any day of the week.

Edited by AtlWhite84
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Not sure what you are implying... I was just speculating that this Saturdays* game was going to be our real test for getting to the Super Bowl as Chicago is not as complete as GB and so will have more weaknesses to exploit.

No one is game planning for the Patriots, at least not publicly =)

Youre right... these are the two best teams, the Bears are frauds and have been all year and the Seahawks well... theyre the Seahawks

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Statistically the Saints are better then the Seahawks

Statistically the Saints are better than Chicago too.

I know what your saying, stats are stat but the game is played on the field. Ya, I get that. For sports fan however, stats are what enables us to lay down the groundwork for our formulations, predictions, and reasoning.

If everyone were to suddenly discredit stats and shun away from them in their post, I predict this message board would be a very quiet and lonely place... Sort of like the Saints board is right now. Buncha losers.

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