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Falcons are favored by -2.5


Brewcrew
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If the old adage is true, and home field advantage is worth 3 points for the home team, then the dome should be worth even more than that given this regime's track record. But if it was that cut-and-dry, that would mean the Saints would be favored by .5+ if this was a neutral field match-up. Despite a worse record, a worse common opponent record and a home field lose to the Falcons earlier in the season.

So... I checked the stats for the season, and Atlanta is 10-4 against the spread (2nd in the NFL). This, to me, is almost as impressive as their 12-2 record. Contrast that with the media darlings, New Orleans, who is 6-8 against the spread (24th in the NFL), and what it really means to me is that the lack of media that we love to tout has the general betting public still underestimating us greatly (or are just flat out ignorant, in the traditional sense).

The bookies know this, decrease the spread, and make a killing. That just means if you bet the same amount on the Falcons to cover the spread on every game this year, you'd have a 950% return, or 9.5x the amount.

I don't really gamble, but I'm a finance guy and I love numbers, so I find it interesting.

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Atlanta is as good a bet as you will ever get this week.

The Falcons are the better team, they are playing at home where they almost never lose, and the Saints best corner is probably going to miss the game.

I don't make bets, but if I did, this is the third week in a row when I've thought the Falcons were a very good bet to cover.

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If the old adage is true, and home field advantage is worth 3 points for the home team, then the dome should be worth even more than that given this regime's track record. But if it was that cut-and-dry, that would mean the Saints would be favored by .5+ if this was a neutral field match-up. Despite a worse record, a worse common opponent record and a home field lose to the Falcons earlier in the season.

So... I checked the stats for the season, and Atlanta is 10-4 against the spread (2nd in the NFL). This, to me, is almost as impressive as their 12-2 record. Contrast that with the media darlings, New Orleans, who is 6-8 against the spread (24th in the NFL), and what it really means to me is that the lack of media that we love to tout has the general betting public still underestimating us greatly (or are just flat out ignorant, in the traditional sense).

The bookies know this, decrease the spread, and make a killing. That just means if you bet the same amount on the Falcons to cover the spread on every game this year, you'd have a 950% return, or 9.5x the amount.

I don't really gamble, but I'm a finance guy and I love numbers, so I find it interesting.

I don't gamble, but that argument you made would make me consider it. I have always been told never to bet on the Falcons, or any team you are close to for that matter. In years past, the Falcons would no doubt let me down, but based on your research they seem to be a good risk this year.

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Here is the YTD record against the spread...

Date Opponent Spread Score ATS

12/19 at SEATTLE (-5.5) 34-18 W

12/12 at CAROLINA (-7) 31-10 W

12/05 at TAMPA BAY (-3) 28-24 W

11/28 vs GREEN BAY (-2.5) 20-17 W

11/21 at ST LOUIS (-3) 34-17 W

11/11 vs BALTIMORE (-2) 26-21 W

11/07 vs TAMPA BAY (-10) 27-21 L

10/24 vs CINCINNATI (-3) 39-32 W

10/17 at PHILADELPHIA (+2) 17-31 L

10/10 at CLEVELAND (-3) 20-10 W

10/03 vs SAN FRANCISCO (-7) 16-14 L

09/26 at NEW ORLEANS (+3) 27-24 W

09/19 vs ARIZONA (-6.5) 41-7 W

09/12 at PITTSBURGH (-1) 9-15 L

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Here is the YTD record against the spread...

Date Opponent Spread Score ATS

12/19 at SEATTLE (-5.5) 34-18 W

12/12 at CAROLINA (-7) 31-10 W

12/05 at TAMPA BAY (-3) 28-24 W

11/28 vs GREEN BAY (-2.5) 20-17 W

11/21 at ST LOUIS (-3) 34-17 W

11/11 vs BALTIMORE (-2) 26-21 W

11/07 vs TAMPA BAY (-10) 27-21 L

10/24 vs CINCINNATI (-3) 39-32 W

10/17 at PHILADELPHIA (+2) 17-31 L

10/10 at CLEVELAND (-3) 20-10 W

10/03 vs SAN FRANCISCO (-7) 16-14 L

09/26 at NEW ORLEANS (+3) 27-24 W

09/19 vs ARIZONA (-6.5) 41-7 W

09/12 at PITTSBURGH (-1) 9-15 L

Seems extremely hilarious now that the Falcons were only 3 point favorites against the Bengals.

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